Present and Future Large Optical Transient Surveys. Supernovae Rates and Expectations
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1 Present and Future Large Optical Transient Surveys Supernovae Rates and Expectations Phil Marshall, Lars Bildsten, Mansi Kasliwal Transients Seminar Weds 12th December 2007
2 Many surveys designed to find type Ia SNe (dark energy) - it's good to know what else they (will) contain (Lars) What will they do for SNe studies? SNe rates and their evolution Discussion of SNe rates almost all literature is on Ia's... Overview of surveys: area, depth, cadence, etc etc One upcoming local survey: PTF (Mansi) Watch out for glimpses of CC SN rates...
3 Type Ia Supernovae Dependence on Galaxy Type and Cosmic Rates There are observed trends in Ia properties with galaxy type (no evidence yet for metallicity effects): Brightest (e.g. 1991T) events occur preferentially in young stellar environments (hence mostly spiral and irregular galaxies) Sub luminous (and peculiar, eg. 1991bg) Ia s dramatically prefer old stellar populations.. (Elliptical and S0 Galaxies) Rates track BOTH the stellar mass and the star formation rate These are likely the result of Ia SNe occurring in both old and young stellar populations: this motivated Scannapieco & Bildsten's (2005) simple explanation for the observed cosmic Ia rate.
4 CFHT Supernovae Legacy Survey (SNLS) Star Forming Galaxies Red=Passive Star Forming-Passive Sullivan et al 2006 The number of faint (small stretch) Ia s in spirals is consistent with the old stellar population in the spiral galaxy. The two populations are distinct!
5 SDSS Supernova Survey Garnavich KITP late types SFR early types
6 SN Rate Dependence on Galaxy Type Rates Infrared luminosity used to determine the stellar mass Part of the Ia rate tracks the SFR, and is 1/3 the Core Collapse (mostly type II) rate Ia data can be fit with one term that depends on mass (confirmed in clusters: Sharon et al 06) and another that is 40% of the core collapse rate Roughly one Ia every 400 years for 1 solar mass per year of star formation. by Mass Mannucci et al 05
7 SB05 assumed that the Ia rate tracks the stellar mass and star formation rate as measured by Mannucci et al, then measured the constants from local galaxies to get: This example shows the outcome when the galaxy's SFR drops exponentially on a 2 Gyr timescale 80% of the Ia SN over a galaxy s lifetime come from the prompt contribution (see Oemler & Tinsley 1979). Fe production from Ia s is 3 times that from CC
8 Star Formation Rate
9 Canada France Hawaii Telescope SuperNova Legacy Survey (SNLS) 125 Ia SNe, 0.2<z<0.75 Sullivan et al 2006 Galaxies identified from the CFHT survey. All Ia s are spectroscopically confirmed For the clear counterparts (some are ambiguous), the galaxies were classified via colors as vigorous star formers, star forming, and passive. When SNLS is done, this list should be ~500
10 Scalings with Star Formation Rate 1 every 300 years in 10^11 Sullivan et al 2006 Confirmation of the mass specific rate of Manneucci et al for passive galaxies, and confirmation of the linear Ia rate dependence on star formation rate!
11 Ia Rate vs. Redshift Sullivan et al 2006 Blue arrow shows the expected local Ia rate just from the local K light density Their normalization with the SFR is 3 times smaller than Scannapieco and Bildsten 2005, giving a different evolution with z. Note that they enforced normalisation to the new SNLS Ia volume point at z=0.47 (Neill et al 2006).
12 Another CFHT Legacy Survey fit SDSS SN point? Neill et al astroph note odd units of SFR/M*
13 Hopkins & Beacom 2006 Flexible model for fitting SFH now industry standard Use to predict SN rates via Mannuecci model but including delay times as well! Fits all* data points with A = 1.15x10-3 Mo-1 and tia = 2.7Gyr and B=0! No tracking of M*? Ignores bimodality that got us started on this in the first place... Need spatially-resolved SN rates? Or just ignore delay time? Being driven by high-z data point...
14 Hopkins & Beacom 2006 Fits all* data points with A = 1.15x10-3 Mo-1 tia = 2.7Gyr while ignoring noted differences in host galaxy types Predicts low rate at high z need more data here... B=0
15 High Redshift SN surveys: GOODS, SDF GOODS ACS survey found 23 type Ia SNe at z > 1 Can get similar numbers from re-imaging the Subaru Deep Field (Poznanski et al 2007) Two epochs photometric typing (no light curve!) Also seems to be seeing few objects at high z... Analysis still preliminary...
16 Gravitational Lensing increases observability of high z SNe: (plot from M. Oguri / LSST strong lensing science collaboration) From HB06!?! Totals in LSST:
17 Designing a SN survey: Required cadence depends on redshift... eg SDSS 3 days, CFHTLS 6 days, GOODS 45 days! Discovery survey need not be finely-sampled Depth/Area trade-off important number is limiting magnitude per visit...
18 Current SN surveys: LOSS (KAIT, Lick) Supernova Factory (Palomar) SDSS ESSENCE (CTIO) SNLS (CFHT) Future SN surveys: PTF (Mansi) PS1 SKYMAPPER DES LSST
19 LOSS (survey) with KAIT (telescope) Monitoring ~13,000 nearby galaxies BVRI imaging (for 20% of objects), limiting magnitude ~ typical seeing 2 12 day cadence 10 years so far Typing from light curves <z> ~ 0.01 Phot. and spec. follow up
20 LOSS (survey) with KAIT (telescope) Monitoring ~13,000 nearby galaxies BVRI imaging (for 20% of objects), limiting magnitude ~ typical seeing 2 12 day cadence 10 years so far Typing from light curves <z> ~ 0.01 Phot. and spec. follow up 566 SNe so far Including CC SNe!
21 SDSS SN 300 sq deg (2.5deg wide stripe 82 ) at celestial equator, RA 60:60 deg ugriz imaging, S/N = 10 at r = 21.5 in 54 sec exposure 1.2 typical seeing 4 day cadence 3 x 3 month seasons Optimised for Ia <z> ~ % Photometric typing Massive spec. follow up c. 450 SNe Ia core collapse SN interlopers...
22 ESSENCE 12 sq deg (36 x 0.36 sq deg CTIO Blanco MOSAIC fields) r+i imaging, 200 sec exposure, typical seeing? 4 day cadence 6 x 3 month seasons Optimised for Ia <z> ~ % photometric typing Late time spec. follow up c. 100 SNe Ia from 1st 3 yr Few 10s of CC interlopers
23 SNLS (CFHTLS) 4 sq deg (4 x 1 sq deg MegaCam pointings) ugriz imaging, limiting mag i = 25.6 in 30 min exposure 0.65 median seeing (i) 6 day average cadence 5 x 6 month seasons Finish in 2008 <z> ~ 0.6 depth = 24.3 in i Massive spec. follow up c. 500 SNe Ia core collapse SN interlopers...
24 Current SN surveys: LOSS (KAIT, Lick) Supernova Factory (Palomar) SDSS ESSENCE (CTIO) SNLS (CFHT) Future SN surveys: PTF (Mansi) PS1 SKYMAPPER DES LSST
25 SkyMapper 20,000 sq deg (new 1.35m telescope with 5.7sq deg imager!) uvgriz imaging, limiting mag i = 19.1 in 30 sec exposure 1.7 = good seeing 2 10 day cadence unknown survey length First light August 2008 c. 200 SNe per year <z> ~ Strength is in wierdos
26 DES (Dark Energy Survey) 9 sq deg (Refitted CTIO 4 m telescope with 3sq deg imager!) griz imaging, obs strategy? Seeing? Depends on camera... no ESSENCE data... Schecter optimistic! 4 6 day cadence First light Fall 2010 c SNe in 5 years c with good LCs c. 500 spec. follow up <z> ~ 0.6
27 LSST (Large Synoptic Survey Telescope) 20,000 sq deg (6.4m effective area, 10sq deg imager) grizy imaging Seeing? Cerro Pachon median = 0.7, 10% < 0.4?! or something 4 day average cadence 20 day average cadence for each filter... First light mid 2015 Commissioning
28 LSST (Large Synoptic Survey Telescope) 20,000 sq deg (6.4m effective area, 10sq deg imager) grizy imaging Seeing? Cerro Pachon median = 0.7, 10% < 0.4?! or something 4 day average cadence 20 day average cadence for each filter... First light mid 2015 Commissioning
29 Supernova Surveys/Rates Survey SDSS PS1 SNLS PTF Depth(i) Deg^2 Cad (d) Seeing Ia/yr.Ia/yr 91bg/yr 15d/yr ~ ? 0.65 c ~ SKY DES LSST ~25? ~24 ~ ~ >1.8 >200 ~400 c. 106
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