Connecting remote and in situ observations of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU

Transcription

1 Connecting remote and in situ observations of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU Christian Möstl University of Graz, Austria with K. Amla, J.R. Hall, P.C. Liewer, E. De Jong, M. Temmer, J.A. Davies, N. Lugaz, T. Rollett, V. Peinhart, A. M. Veronig, Y. Liu, C.J. Farrugia, J. G. Luhmann, A.B. Galvin NASA JPL, Pasadena, USA; University of Graz, Austria; RAL Space, UK; University of New Hampshire, USA; University of California, Berkeley, USA christian.moestl@uni-graz.at

2 ICMEs ICME= shock + sheath + MC/MCL/MFR/ejecta Zurbuchen and Richardson, SSR, 2006

3 striker, Sun Geometrical modeling Finding the direction/speed of a moving object (ball, CME) (b) (c) Earth goalie, Earth defender, STEREO striker, Sun Sun STEREO spacecraft (c) Earth longation angle (b) d ~1AU Elongation angle (a) Time

4 Geometrical modeling Fixed-Phi Fitting Harmonic Mean Fitting Self-similar expansion fitting FPF: Rouillard et al GRL HMF: Lugaz, 2010 Solar Physics SSEF: Davies et al., 2012 ApJ, Möstl and Davies, 2013 Solar Physics triangulation versions (two HIs): Ying Liu et al., ApJ(L) , Davies et al submitted

5 March X5.4 flare peaks March :26 (EUV wave)

6 March STEREO separation 227 COR2 HI2 HI1

7 March Mercury

8 March Venus Mercury Mercury Venus

9 March STEREO-A

10 SolarSoft SATPLOT Software track extraction fitting with geometrical models (here HMF)

11 March observer flare pos 2717 km/s 2201 km/s 1595 km/s

12 March HI predictions Wind SWE / MFI March 2012 B (nt) B B X B Y B (nt) B Z Wind spacecraft at L1 Vp (km/s) Np (cm -3 ) FPF HMF SSEF shock sheath shock = arrival time 0 Tp (MK) P tot (npa) P tot P B P p Mar Mar Mar 2012

13 ICME sheath region speed V sheath (km/s) speed comparison HI - in situ CME propagation speed vs. in situ speed V sheath = V CMEi V sheath = V CMEi FPF HMF SSEF linear fit to SSEF CME propagation speed to in situ observatory V CMEi (km/s)

14 corrected HI speed - in situ CME propagation from HI modeling and in situ (sheath region= speeds average speed difference to in situ ~300 km/s SSEF apex SSEF in situ SSEF corrected sheath average corrected speed difference to in situ ~60 km/s CME speed (km/s) event number

15 Arrival times HI - in situ 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% Arrival'(me'difference'between'HI'geometrical'modeling'and'in'situ'shock'arrivals' + predicted arrival is later than observed FPF% HMF% SSEF% Arrival'(me'difference'(hours)' 10,00% 5,00% 0,00%!5,00%!10,00%!15,00%!20,00%!25,00% - predicted arrival is earlier than observed!30,00% 2008%April%26% 2008%June%01%leading% 2008%June%01%trailing% 2008%December%12% 2008%December%27% 2009%February%13% 2010%April%03% 2010%April%08% 2010%May%23% 2010%June%16% 2010%August%01%STB% 2010%August%01%L1% 2011%February%15% 2011%August%02% 2011%September%06% 2011%October%21% 2012%January%19% 2012%January%23% 2012%March%5% 2012%March%7% 2012%March%10% 2012%April%19% 2012%June%14% 2012%July%12% Date'of'CME'Event'in'the'corona'

16 Conclusions We connected 22 CMEs from STEREO/COR2 to HI to in situ observations at 1 AU our dataset now contains a wide range of CME speeds ( km/s) the arrival times match to within hours, the speeds within km/s on average (including apex/flank effects), deceleration of CMEs is clearly visible none of the methods is superior over the other in predicting the speeds and arrival times (surprising, giving the strong geometrical differences - geometry is not so important? none of them is a good description of ICME fronts?) for the ISEST goal we can provide CME propagation speeds and directions in HI1/2, as well as mostly definitive connections from the Sun (COR2) to 1 AU (in situ) - some ambiguities remain for interacting events! flux rope modeling at a later stage

17 This research has been funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/ ) grant agreement n [COMESEP].... a Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship within the 7th European Community Framework Programme.... and it would have been entirely impossible without the dedicated people working on all those instruments! Thanks!

18 # Sources of geomagnetic storms Gopalswamy et al., 2005, GRL J. Zhang et al., 2007, JGR

19 STEREO Heliospheric Imagers

20 March Direction to Earth: FPF: -8 SSEF: -41 HMF: -61 observer Apex speeds: FPF: 1595 km/s SSEF: 2201 km/s HMF: 2717 km/s flare pos Pred. L1 speeds: FPF: 1595 km/s SSEF: 1264 km/s HMF: 1320 km/s Strong differences in direction and speed arise - the CME is fast and behind the limb - confirms theoretical expectations by Lugaz and Kintner, km/s 2201 km/s 1595 km/s

21 speed comparison HI - in situ HI#geometrical#modeling#speed#2#sheath#region#speed##(km/s)# 1200$ 1000$ 800$ 600$ 400$ 200$ 0$!200$ Difference#between#CME#interplanetary#propagaBon#speed#and#ICME#sheath#region#speed# 2008$April$26$ 2008$June$01$leading$ + HI speed is higher than in situ speed FPF$ HMF$ SSEF$ - HI speed is lower than in situ speed 2008$June$01$trailing$ 2008$December$12$ 2008$December$27$ 2009$February$13$ 2010$April$03$ 2010$April$08$ 2010$May$23$ 2010$June$16$ 2010$August$01$STB$ Date#of#CME#Event#in#the#corona# 2010$August$01$L1$ 2011$February$15$ 2011$August$02$ 2011$September$06$ 2011$October$21$ 2012$January$19$ 2012$January$23$ 2012$March$5$ 2012$March$7$ 2012$March$10$ 2012$April$19$ 2012$June$14$ 2012$July$12$

22 shock arrival: March :24 (Wind at L1) Arrival times: differences are - 9 hours (FPF) - 2 hours (SSEF with 45 width) - 3 hours (HMF) earlier than actually arrived at L1 Speeds in sheath region (= high density visible in HI Jmap) 682 +/-30 km/s, the predicted speeds are too high, +600 to +900 km/s! B (nt) B (nt) Vp (km/s) Tp (MK) March Np (cm -3 ) P tot (npa) FPF HMF HI predictions SSEF shock Wind SWE / MFI March 2012 sheath shock = arrival time B B X B Y B Z P tot P B P p Mar Mar Mar 2012

23 July coronal mass ejection remote observer flare FPF HMF SSEF in situ observer

24 July B (nt) B (nt) Vp (km/s) Tp (MK) FPF 1200 HMF SSEF SSEF cor Np (cm -3 ) P tot (npa) Wind (L1) SWE / MFI 2012 July coronal mass ejection sheath magnetic cloud shock B B X B Y B Z P tot P B P p Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul 18

25 Transit time CME$interplanetary$propaga+on$speed$versus$transit$+me$ CME$transit$+me:$COR2A$first$image$to$in$situ$(hours)$ 140" 130" 120" 110" 100" 90" 80" 70" 60" 50" 40" 30" 20" 10" FPF" HMF" SSEF" Power"(SSEF)" y"="9527,4x +0,764 " R²"="0,83575" 0" 200" 300" 400" 500" 600" 700" 800" 900" 1000" 1100" 1200" 1300" 1400" 1500" 1600" 1700" 1800" CME$propaga+on$speed$(geometrical$modeling)$in$direc+on$of$in$situ$observatory$(km/s)$