NEWSLETTER February 19/ 2018

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Derick Stanley
5 years ago
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5% this month on concerns about pork demand into the spring - Lower pork belly and ham prices have nega vely impacted the value of the pork cutout - Packer margins are now below breakeven, which has

4% compared to a year ago - The recent pullback in hog and pork prices may be what the pork market needs in the short term, providing retailers and exporters with an opportunity to feature more pork

has been excellent, forcing packers to pay up for ca le in order to secure sufficient supplies - USDA will issue its ca le on feed survey results next week but analysts expect total on feed supplies

So far markets have shown that beef demand is strong enough to absorb the projected increase in supply Chicken Forecasts 15-17 Turkey Sta s cs 18 Turkey Forecasts 19-20 Exports 21-24 Sta s cs for

Expecta ons are for the broiler flock to move higher into the spring - Producers have had to increase the size of the hatching flock given the steady decline in produc vity.

1 Top 50 Private Companies Fastest Growing Private Companies 2016 & 2017 Entrepreneurial awards NEWSLETTER February 19/ 2018 Summary 1 Pork Sta s cs 2 Pork Price Forecasts 3-7 Beef Sta s cs 8 Beef Price Forecasts 9-12 Chicken Sta s cs Hogs / Pork - CME lean hog futures have declined as much as 6.5% this month on concerns about pork demand into the spring - Lower pork belly and ham prices have nega vely impacted the value of the pork cutout - Packer margins are now below breakeven, which has caused packers to slow down slaughter, risking a backup of hogs at the farm level - Weight of hogs sold by producers is up 1.4% compared to a year ago - The recent pullback in hog and pork prices may be what the pork market needs in the short term, providing retailers and exporters with an opportunity to feature more pork into the spring Ca le / Beef - While hog futures have slumped in the last two weeks, CME fed ca le are approaching the contract highs that were set last fall - Beef demand at the start of the year has been excellent, forcing packers to pay up for ca le in order to secure sufficient supplies - USDA will issue its ca le on feed survey results next week but analysts expect total on feed supplies as of February 1 to be 7-7.5% above year ago levels - Fed ca le slaughter is expected to run 4.5% to 5% above year ago in April and May. So far markets have shown that beef demand is strong enough to absorb the projected increase in supply Chicken Forecasts Turkey Sta s cs 18 Turkey Forecasts Exports Sta s cs for South America Global Pork Prices 28 Broiler / Chicken - The broiler type hatching flock in January was 4.7% higher than a year ago. Expecta ons are for the broiler flock to move higher into the spring - Producers have had to increase the size of the hatching flock given the steady decline in produc vity. The ra o of chick placements to egg sets is now at %, compared to 81.5% a year ago and 83% three years ago - USDA currently forecasts broiler produc on in 2018 to be 2.3% above year ago - Strong export demand and con nued gains in domes c channels should bolster prices for dark meat, which are currently forecast to increase as much as 10% for the year. Breast meat prices expected to be only modestly higher. Turkey / Other Poultry - We have yet to see a notable reduc on in turkey produc on. Year to date turkey produc on is up 1% from the same period a year ago - Turkey poult placements in December were down 10% from a year ago and many market par cipants expect turkey breast prices to be higher in the spring - There is currently a big spread between the price of fresh and frozen turkey breast, another indica on that end users are willing to pay a premium for frozen product that will go into storage - Whole bird supplies were extremely burdensome at the end of December, forcing prices down 20%. Normally whole bird prices stay weak through April.

2 Pork Market - Supply Situation & Outlook Weekly Pork Production Statistics Source: USDA Slaughter Dressed Wt Production (0 hd) % CH. LBS % CH. (Million lbs) % CH. Year Ago 18-Feb-17 2, This Week 17-Feb-18 2, % % % Last Week 10-Feb-18 2, This Week 17-Feb-18 2, % % % YTD Last Year 18-Feb-17 16, ,450 YTD This Year 17-Feb-18 16, % % 3, % Quarterly History + Forecasts Q , ,230 Q , ,963 Q , , Q , ,648 Annual 118,240 Y/Y % CH Y/Y % CH. 24,941 Y/Y % CH. Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Annual 121, % % 25, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 7, % Annual 125, % % 26, % WEEKLY HOG SLAUGHTER. '000 HEAD Source: USDA 2700 Barrow/Gilt Dressed Carcass Weights, 5-day Moving Avg. - All hogs Based on Daily MPR Report, LM_HG201. Data through Feb 12, Yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Page 2

3 Ham, 23-27# Trmd Selected Ham, FOB Plant, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Ham, Inner Shank, FOB Plant, USDA Page Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % February 16, 2018 = Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Ham, Outer Shank, FOB Plant, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 3

4 Loin, 1/4 Trimmed Loin VAC, FOB Plant, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Picnic, Picnic Cushion Meat Combo, FOB Plant, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Belly, Derind Belly 9-13#, FOB Plant, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 4

5 Trim, Picnic Meat Combo Cushion Out, FOB Plant, USDA Page 110 Aug % Sep % Oct % 90 Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % 50 Apr % May % 40 February 16, 2018 = Jun % Jul % 30 Trim, 42% Trim Combo, FOB Plant, USDA Page Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % 50 Dec % Jan % February 16, 2018 = Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Sparerib, Trmd Sparerib - MED, FOB Plant, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 5

6 Jowl, Skinned Combo, FOB Plant, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Loin, Boneless Sirloin, FOB Plant, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Trim, 72% Trim Combo, FOB Plant, USDA Page Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % February 16, 2018 = Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 6

7 Loin, Bnls CC Strap-on, FOB Plant, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Brisket Bones, Full, 30#, USDA, FRZ February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 7

8 Beef Market - Supply Situation & Outlook Weekly Beef Production Statistics Source: USDA Slaughter Dressed Wt Production (0 hd) % CH. LBS % CH. (Million lbs) % CH. Year Ago 18-Feb This Week 17-Feb % % % Last Week 10-Feb This Week 17-Feb % % % YTD Last Year 18-Feb-17 4, ,336 YTD This Year 17-Feb-18 4, % % 3, % Quarterly History + Forecasts Q , ,938 Q , ,187 Q , ,472 Q , ,625 Annual 30,578 Y/Y % CH Y/Y % CH. 25,221 Y/Y % CH. Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Annual 32, % % 26, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Q , % % 6, % Annual 33, % % 27, % WEEKLY STEER AND HEIFER SLAUGHTER. '000 HEAD Source: USDA 550 Weekly Average FI Cattle Carcass Weights (Includes Fed & Non Fed Cattle) Average Dressed Weight Per Carcass. Data Source: USDA AMS Yr Avg Yr Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Page 8

9 Beef Primal Values Beef Choice Cutout Value, USDA, Daily, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Primal Round Cutout Value, USDA, Daily, Primal Chuck Cutout Value, USDA, Daily, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Primal Loin Cutout Value, USDA, Daily, Primal Rib Cutout Value, USDA, Daily, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Page 9

10 50CL BEEF TRIM, FRESH, NATIONAL, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % SELECT, 114A, 3 SHOULDER CLOD, TRIMMED, 1/4" MAX, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % SELECT, 170 GOOSENECK ROUND, 18-33, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 10

11 CHOICE, 168, 3 TOP INSIDE ROUND, 1/4" MAX, USDA Page Aug % Sep % 240 Oct % Nov % 220 Dec % Jan % February 16, 2018 = Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % CHOICE, 184, 3 TOP BUTT, BONELESS, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % CHOICE,, 1 BRISKET, DECKLE-OFF, BONELESS, USDA Page Aug % 2 Sep % Oct % 2 Nov % Dec % 240 Jan % February 16, 2018 = Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 11

12 5 YR. MON THLY AVG. YEAR AG O WEEKLY PRICE WEEKLY PRICE FORECAST UB Beef Tripe, Scalded, Edible February 16, 2018 =.00 Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % 5 YR. MONTHLY AVG. YEAR AGO WEEKLY PRICE WEEKLY PRICE FOR ECAST Inside Skirt, USDA Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % February 16, 2018 = Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 12

13 Broiler Market - Supply Situation & Outlook Weekly Broiler Production Statistics Source: USDA Slaughter Dressed Wt Production RTC (million hd) % CH. LBS % CH. (Million lbs) % CH. Year Ago 11-Feb Last Week 10-Feb % % % Prev. Week 3-Feb Last Week 10-Feb % % % YTD Last Year 11-Feb ,488 YTD This Year 10-Feb % % 4, % Quarterly History + Forecasts Q , ,039 Q , ,253 Q , ,338 Q , ,065 Annual 8,768 Y/Y % CH Y/Y % CH. 40,696 Y/Y % CH. Q , % % 10, % Q , % % 10, % Q , % % 10, % Q , % % 10, % Annual 8, % % 41, % Q , % % 10, % Q , % % 10, % Q , % % 10, % Q , % % 10, % Annual 9, % % 42, % Page 13

14 '000 58,000 57,000 LAYERS ON 1ST OF MONTH: BROILER TYPE HATCHING Source: USDA/NASS Chicken and Eggs Monthly Report % 56,000 55,000 54, ,000 52,000 51,000 5-Yr. Avg. Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec US WEEKLY BROILER EGG SETS Source: USDA Broiler Hatchery Report 235, , , , , , , , ,000 0 eggs US WEEKLY BROILER CHICK PLACEMENT Source: USDA Broiler Hatchery Report eggs set 190, ,000 1, , , ,000 1, ,000 5 Yr. Avg ( ) ,000 5 Yr. Avg ( ) , ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 85.0% RATIO OF CHICK PLACEMENTS VS. EGG SETS (21 DAY LAG) 84.0% 83.0% 82.0% 81.0%.0% 79.0% Page 14

15 BROILER, NATIONAL WHOLE BIRD PRICE, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % N.E. BROILER BREAST BONELESS-SKINLESS, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % N.E. BROILER WINGS, USDA, WT.AVG. Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 15

16 5 YR. MO NTHLY AVG. YEAR AGO WEEKL Y PRICE WEEKLY PRICE FORECAST NE BONELESS BREAST BROILER WHITE TRIM MEAT, UNDER 15%, FRESH February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % UB CHICKEN - NE DRUMSTICKS, (BULK) February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % MECHANICALLY SEPARATED CHICKEN-FRESH-15-20% FAT W/SKN February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 16

17 UB NE Whole Leg Meat 4/10's Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % UB NE Boneless/Skinless Thigh Meat, Special Trim Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % N.E. BROILER LEG QUARTERS, USDA Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 17

18 Turkey Market - Supply Situation & Outlook Weekly Turkey Production Statistics Source: USDA Slaughter Dressed Wt Production RTC (million hd) % CH. LBS % CH. (Million lbs) % CH. Year Ago 11-Feb Last Week 10-Feb % % % Prev. Week 3-Feb Last Week 10-Feb % % % YTD Last Year 11-Feb YTD This Year 10-Feb % % % Quarterly History + Forecasts Q ,435 Q ,520 Q ,515 Q ,511 Annual Y/Y % CH. 24. Y/Y % CH. 5,981 Y/Y % CH. Q % % 1, % Q % % 1, % Q % % 1, % Q % % 1, % Annual % % 5, % Q % % 1, % Q % % 1, % Q % % 1, % Q % % 1, % Annual % % 5, % Page 18

19 UB BONELESS-SKINLESS TURKEY BREAST, TOM, FRESH Page February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % UB DRUMS, EAST, TOM, FROZEN February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % 5 YR. MONTHLY AVG. YEAR AGO WEEKLY PRICE WEEKLY PRICE FORECAS T MECH. SEP. TURKEY-FRESH-UNDER 20% FAT, SOME SKIN February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 19

20 TURKEY MEAT - SCAPULA, FROZEN February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % 5 Y R. MO NTHLY AVG. YEAR AGO WEEKL Y PRICE WEEKLY PRICE FO RECAS T UB TURKEY MEAT - THIGH, FRESH February 16, 2018 = Aug % Sep % Oct % Nov % Dec % Jan % 7-Feb % 16-Feb % 28-Feb % Feb % Mar % Apr % May % Jun % Jul % Page 20

21 Special Monthly Update - Pork Exports Y/Y Ch. in Dec. 17 vs. Dec 16 US Fr, Froz & Pres Pork Export Volume Source: USDA/FAS Units: Metric Tons Y/Y Ch. in Dec. 17 vs. Dec 16 US Pork Variety Meat Exports Source: USDA/FAS Units: Metric Tons World Total Korea, South 3,434 5,022 Change in fr/frz/pres pork exports: World Total Korea, South -10, Australia(*) 2,3 3.0% Philippines 238 Hong Kong 2,0 Japan 1,952 Other 774 Philippines 347 Colombia -229 Canada -1,066 China -1,8 Mexico -2,770-4,000-2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Canada Australia(*) Japan Colombia Hong Kong Other Mexico China Change in variety pork exports: -20.7% -6,765-3,558-12,000-10,000-8,000-6,000-4,000-2, , Quantity of US Exports of Fr/Frz/Cooked Pork: World Total Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 190,000 1, ,000 1, ,000 Quantity of US Exports of Fr/Frz/Cooked Pork: Mexico Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 70,000 65,000,000 55,000 50,000,000 45, ,000, ,000 5-Yr Avg ,000 35,000 5-Yr Avg ,000 30,000 $ Value of US Exports of Fr/Frz/Cooked Pork: World Total Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) $ Value of US Exports of Fr/Frz/Cooked Pork: Mexico Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 550,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000,000, ,000,000,000, ,000,000,000,000 90,000,000,000,000 70,000,000 5-Yr Avg ,000, ,000,000 50,000,000 Page 21

22 Special Monthly Update - Beef Exports Y/Y Ch. in Dec. 17 vs. Dec 16 US Beef and Veal Export Volume Source: USDA/FAS Units: Metric Tons Y/Y Ch. in Dec. 17 vs. Dec 16 US Beef Variety Meat Exports Source: USDA/FAS Units: Metric Tons World Total Hong Kong Japan Other Netherlands Change in exports of fr/froz/pres beef: 2.5% ,4 2,097 4,377 World Total Hong Kong Netherlands Vietnam Canada -5,582 Change in exports of variety meats: -17.1% Philippines 95 Philippines 1 Vietnam 19 Taiwan -15 Egypt 12 Korea, South -69 Taiwan -342 Mexico -622 Canada -848 Korea, South -3,628-6,000-4,000-2, ,000 4,000 6,000 Japan -746 Other -1,149 Egypt -1,462 Mexico -2,754-7,500-6,500-5,500-4,500-3,500-2,500-1, ,500 Quantity of US Exports of Fr/Frz/Pres Beef: World Total Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 90,000 85,000,000 75,000 70,000 65,000,000 55,000 Quantity of US Exports of Fr/Frz/Pres Beef: Mexico Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 50,000 5-Yr Avg , Yr Avg 45,000 4,000 $ Value of US Exports of Fr/Frz/Pres Beef: World Total Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 650,000,000 0,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 $ Value of US Exports of Fr/Frz/Pres Beef: Mexico Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ),000,000 75,000,000 70,000,000 65,000,000,000,000 55,000,000 50,000,000 45,000, ,000,000 5-Yr Avg ,000,000 5-Yr Avg ,000,000 35,000,000 Page 22

23 Special Monthly Update - Chicken Exports Y/Y Ch. in Dec. 17 vs. Dec 16 US Fresh/Frozen Broiler Meat Exports Source: USDA/FAS Units: Metric Tons Y/Y Ch. in Dec. 17 vs. Dec 16 US Broiler Export Value ($) Source: USDA/FAS Units: US $ World Total -17,035 World Total $15,482,637 Angola 2,706 Other $20,996,217 Other 2,535 Angola $3,698,948 Iraq -1,152 Cuba $591,529 Chile -1,155 Iraq -$645,839 Canada -1,404 Hong Kong -$693,956 Guatemala -1,986 Guatemala -$702,201 Cuba -1,999 Chile -$857,509 Hong Kong Mexico Change in broiler exports: -3,114-5,076 Mexico Canada -$1,637,840 -$1,678,093 Change in broiler export value: Kazakhstan -6.3% -6,390 Kazakhstan -$3,588,619 6% -20,000-15,000-10,000-5, ,000-20,000,000-10,000, ,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 Quantity of US Exports of Fr/Frz Chicken: World Total Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 300, ,000 2, ,000 2, , , ,000 Quantity of US Exports of Fr/Frz Chicken: Mexico Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 65,000,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40, , , ,000 5-Yr Avg ,000 30, Yr Avg $ Value of US Exports of Fr/Frz Chicken: World Total Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollar. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 330,000, ,000, ,000,000 $ Value of US Exports of Fr/Frz Chicken: Mexico Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollar. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 65,000,000,000,000 55,000, ,000,000 50,000, ,000,000 45,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 5-Yr Avg ,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000, Yr Avg 130,000,000 20,000,000 Page 23

24 Special Monthly Update - Turkey Exports Y/Y Ch. in Dec. 17 vs. Dec 16 US Turkey Exports Source: USDA/FAS Units: Metric Tons Y/Y Ch. in Dec. 17 vs. Dec 16 US Turkey Export Value ($) Source: USDA/FAS Units: US Dollars World Total Change in turkey exports: 872 World Total -1,395,862 Mexico Haiti Other Costa Rica 4.6% ,749 Other Haiti Costa Rica Dominican Republic Change in turkey export value: -3.7% 714, , ,704 48,595 Japan 2 Japan 41,788 Dominican Republic -47 Taiwan -142,888 Taiwan -94 Hong Kong -181,034 Canada -287 Panama -642,725 Panama -322 Canada -713,483 Hong Kong -533 Mexico -1,044,288-2,000-1,500-1, ,000 1,500 2,000-4,500,000-3,500,000-2,500,000-1,500, , ,000 1,500,000 Quantity of US Exports of Fr/Frz Turkey: World Total Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 Quantity of US Exports of Fr/Frz Turkey: Mexico Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 14,000 12,000 10, Yr Avg 8,000 7,000 6, Yr Avg $ Value of US Exports of Fr/Frz Turkey Export Value: World To Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ),000,000 $ Value of US Exports of Fr/Frz Turkey: Mexico Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting ( ) 35,000,000 55,000,000 30,000,000 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 25,000,000 20,000, Yr Avg 5,000, Yr Avg Page 24

25 Mexico Beef Production CONTRIBUTION TO YEAR/YEAR CHANGE IN MEXICO BEEF PRODUCTION METRIC TON. January 2018 VS. January 2017 Total VERACRUZ DURANGO JALISCO SAN LUIS POTOSÍ NUEVO LEÓN SONORA TLAXCALA CHIHUAHUA AGUASCALIENTES MICHOACÁN CAMPECHE TABASCO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR QUINTANA ROO NAYARIT SINALOA MORELOS DISTRITO FEDERAL MÉXICO GUANAJUATO OAXACA COLIMA GUERRERO HIDALGO BAJA CALIFORNIA QUERÉTARO COAHUILA ZACATECAS PUEBLA YUCATÁN CHIAPAS TAMAULIPAS metricton ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Mexico Pork Prices PRECIO PROMEDIO SEMANAL EN OBRADOR Ultimo Anterior Cambio Peso / 1 USD USD/KG USD/KG Supremo LAB Rastro Carne en Canal Cabeza Espaldilla Pecho Entrecot Tocino Pierna Cuero Fuente: SNIIM Page 25

26 MT, swt 1,000,000 Mexican Fresh, Chilled & Frozen Beef Imports Year-to-Date 2017 vs YTD 2017 YTD Mexico Beef Imports 4%,000 1%,000,000,000 40,000 20,000-1% 701% -16% United States Canada Australia New Zealand Total Mexico Beef Exports MT, swt 250,000 Mexican Fresh, Chilled & Frozen Beef Exports Year-to-Date, 2017 vs YTD 2017 YTD 200, ,000 6% M % 0% 9%,000 50,000-33% 26% N/A United States Japan South Korea Russia Total Page 26

27 PRECIO SEMANAL DEL CERDO EN PIE (USD/KG) Semana Antioquia Eje Cafetero Valle Caribe Norte Bogotá Nacional COP/USD 10-Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Fuente: Asociación pork colombia PRECIO SEMANAL DE LA CANAL CALIENTE DE CERDO (USD/KG) Semana Antioquia Eje Cafetero Valle Caribe Norte Bogotá Nacional COP/USD 10-Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Fuente: Asociación pork colombia Page 27

28 Global Pork Pricing Trends World Hog Prices, Various Styles, Dressed Wt. & Live Wt. Prices in US$ Equivalent This Week Prev. Wk. Year Ago 9-Feb-18 2-Feb Feb-17 % ch. US Lean Hog Carcass, IA/MN, (US$/kg) carcass wt % CAN Hog Carcass (US$/kg) carcass wt % AUS BAC Carcass -95kg (US$/kg) carcass wt % EU-28 Slaughter Pigs, kg, (US$/kg) carcass wt % Denmark Slaughter Pigs, kg, (US$/kg) carcass wt % Germany Slaughter Pigs, kg, (US$/kg) carcass wt % Spain Slaughter Pigs, kg, (US$/kg) carcass wt % France Slaughter Pigs, kg, (US$/kg) carcass wt % Argentina Live Hogs, (US$/kg) liveweight % Brazil Live Hogs, (US$/kg) liveweight % Chile Live Hogs, (US$/kg) liveweight % Mexico Live Pigs, (US$/kg) liveweight % China Hog Carcass, (US$/kg) carcass wt % Page 28

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NEWSLETTER May 29/2018

Top Private Companies Fastest Growing Private Companies 2016 & 2017 Entrepreneurial awards NEWSLETTER May 29/2018 Summary 1 Pork Statistics 2 Pork Price Forecasts 3-7 Beef Statistics 8 Beef Price Forecasts