TL 043 MODEL OF UNEXPECTED CREDIT RISK OF SUPPLY CHAIN BASED ON CATASTROPHE THEORY ZOU HUIXIA, SONG JIAO

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1 L 43 MODL OF UXPCD CRDI RIK OF UPPLY CAI BAD O CAAROP ORY ZOU UIXIA, OG JIAO COOMIC AD MAAGM COOL, WUA UIVRIY, WUA, P.R. CIA 4372 Abrac h arcl r o apply caaroph hory o h rarch of uxpcd crd rk of h upply cha. Codrg h occurrc characrc of uxpcd crd v ad wh h combao of faur of h upply cha lf, buld a modl of uxpcd crd rk. Ad coduc mulao aaly for boh h mpac of uxpcd crd v ad h z of, whch provd a good approach for aalyzg uxpcd crd rk of h upply cha. o ha l a foudao for xdd ud h fuur. Ky word Uxpcd crd rk; upply cha; Caaroph hory; mulao aaly Iroduco upply cha maagm a w maagm cocp ad maagm phloophy of modr rpr. Popl h dmad ad upply work, from h produco o crculao proc, volvg upplr, maufacurr, raporao provdr, wholalr, ralr ad fal coumr, a a dvbl orgac whol calld upply cha. Wh dffr cor compv, cooprav rpr of h upply cha work ca ralz h b cofgurao of rourc ad cor compc. Coquly, hy ca rpod quckly o mark chag. hy rduc co ffcvly, mprov cuomr afaco ad loyaly ad hac h ovrall prformac of h upply cha. upply cha, a a compoo of dpd bu orgazao, compo ad cooprao ar h bac rul of oprao. Cooprao addr h ourc of prof whl compo olv h drbuo of prof. owvr, a vry cooprav rpr a dpd y of coomc r ad ha boudd raoaly, vably hr a cra amou of crd rk h proc of prof drbuo. Wh addo of layr ad mmbr rpr, h rucur of upply cha bcom mor ad mor complcad whch cra h rk of upply cha. A for rk of h upply cha, h dury ad acadma gv a hgh dgr of ao. May cholar aalyz rk facor from dffr lvl ad prpcv. For xampl, rm of rucur, hy hk h rk of upply cha ca b dvdd o four ma cagor: upply rk, dmad rk, proc rk, work rk. From h prpcv of rlao of r mmbr rpr, hr ar alo rk, a bhavor of cooprav rpr h cha ar uually off hr commo goal. h rlao rk maly clud ru rk, moral rk ad mmbr lockd rk. From apc of rourc flow, upply cha rk ca b dvdd o pack: logc rk, h rk of capal flow, formao flow ad kowldg flow. om cholar alo blv ha upply cha rk maagm clud dmad rk, h rk of formao rourc, coomc volaly, prof rk ad coracual rk maagm. I ummary, hr ar may facor affcg upply cha crd rk uch a moraly, coomy, ym, culur ad om ohr uxpcd facor ad o o. Uxpcd facor ca alo b dvdd o ral ad xral facor. h ral facor ar rlad o chag of r mmbr

2 rpr ad allocao of rourc c.h xral facor could affc h whol upply cha v h whol ocy uch a a udd chag h coomc vrom ub-loa cr, c..comparg wh ral facor, xral facor affc h upply cha drcly ad macrocopc. owvr, h occurrc of uxpcd facor of udd, lapg ad o-couou. I dffcul o mak accura prdco bu ca lad o muao of upply cha crd. Bad o h dcuo abov, codrg h occurrc characrc of udd crd v ad combg faur of h upply cha lf, h arcl amp o buld crd rk modl o lay a foudao for furhr rarch. 2 Modl Buldg 2. Modl aumpo For upply cha mmbr, pcally h cor mmbr, h mpac ha mrgc hav o hm wll craly affc h ovrall crd. Bu whhr o uxpcd cd ha a mpac o h cha crd? wha mpac, how o maur h ffc? W d a raoabl modl o rflc h characrc wll ad o olv h problm. o h d, mak h followg aumpo: Aum ha h mpac ha udd v hav o h upply cha couou ad ca b dcad by p fuco. 2 h umbr of uxpcd crd cd oby Poo drbuo. h umbr of uxpcd crd v a radom varabl. I dffr m prod, h umbr of occurrc of o caual lk ad ar dpd of ach ohr. hy ar radom varabl all ubjc o h am drbuo. Aum ha h umbr of uxpcd crd v occur a mall m prod.h probably of occurrg oc proporoal o m ad occurrg wc or mor xrmly mall whch ca b gord. h propr ar dcal wh h coug proc of Poo proc. o h aumpo ha h umbr of uxpcd crd v ubjc o Poo drbuo raoabl. 3 Aum ha h mpac o h upply cha o gav xpoal dcay ovr m. 2.2 Modl Aum ha h coug proc of umbr of uxpcd crd v occurrg m rval,,, whch oby Poo proc of λ. h probably ha happ uxpcd crd v k m m rval, ca b xprd a: >, k,2, L k λ λ P, P, k >, k,2, L k! λ ad h oly paramr d o dfy coa λ h a Poo drbuo of >. h praccal gfcac of λ h umbr of v occurrg a avrag u m λ ad λ ca b mad. Compoud Poo drbuo:h umbr of uxpcd v occurrg m rval, ;h mpac ha h mrgcy ha o upply cha crd,,2, L,,2, L ar a am of dpd ad dcally drbud radom varabl ad dpd wh, oo. Ordr: X Y h radom proc X, compoud Poo proc,whch rfr o h mpac of crd mrgc occurrg m rval, o h upply cha crd. Bad o xprc,udd v hav a ffc o h upply cha ad h affco hould b uad.o ca b dcrbd by h p fuco: Y Y

3 oby Poo drbuo of λ.h mpac of crd mrgc o corpora crd ar Y,whch ar dpd ad dcally drbud wh ach ohr. h x of h mpac o a gav xpoal dcay ovr m.wh,h mpac Y ;a h mom of,, Y >.h mpac ca b addd, h h mpac of h oal m : Y ξ I whch h occurrg m of h crd mrgcy. Wh h mpac o h crd ym of rpr xcd a cra lm, h crd au of rpr wll o logr maa h curr lvl ad wll bcom aohr o.aum happ crd v k m ju h. o, h followg modl ca b bul o dcrb h mpac of uxpcd v o h upply cha crd: Y ξ φ Codr h xpcao of h mpac ha uxpcd v occurrg a m rval hav o crd rk: Rgard a h m rval for rpr o maa curr crd lvl udr h fluc of uxpcd v whou ohr facor codrd,h: Y Y Y Y φ For Poo radom proc,,wh,h codoal probably drbuo fuco of,, 2, L ar h am a ordr ac [,] ha ar dpd wh ach ohr ad uformly drbud. Ordr 2 U U U,,, L a dpd ad uformly drbud radom varabl [,],h: x U U dx o: Y ξ,,

4 ξ ξ ξ Y λ Y Y I whch ξ λ h xpcao of h mpac ha uxpcd v occurrg m rval hav o rpr crd. 3 upply Cha Rk mulao Codr h mpl upply cha, oly cludg upplr, maufacurr ad markr. Coduc mulao aaly for. Aum ha h valu from whch h crd au of rpr bg o chag ar followd by 3,7,5.o mplfy h calculao,mak,. Drm ad quafy h arg varabl o aaly: φ ; 2Drm h ky radom varabl: λ ; 3Drm h pobly drbuo of h ky radom varabl: compoud Poo drbuo. mulao aaly: U h cadom of malab ofwar'poo',, o mak radom umbr wh Poo drbuo.u roudrad, o mak radom umbr of or whch ma whhr h p fuco ha a ffc o h upply cha crd.r daa o h modl ad calcula 3 xpcao umbr A for mulao aaly. abl mulao Rul Oupu m λ A A2 A3 flag m λ A A2 A3 flag

5 Accordg o h daa from h abl, wh hr occur udd v, h crd au of upply cha chag 2 m.morovr, h z of chag whch rfr o h crd lo,ca b calculad.hrfor,h modl ca wll prdc h crd rk ad lo ad ha a hgh praccal valu. 4 Cocluo h papr bg from h radom of mrgc. Codrg h characrc of crd rk of upply cha lf, u Poo drbuo fuco ad p fuco o dcrb h rk modl of upply cha ad do aaly ha mach h acual. 2 Applyg h p fuco o h modl ca ffcvly dfy a vary of uxpcd v ad aalyz f hy hav a mpac o crd of h upply cha. h valuao mhod mor

6 cfc ha xg o ad ha mor praccal valu. 3 Wh h modl o udy h crd rk of upply cha, w ca coduc mulao aaly ad ffcvly prdc h z of h rk. Mawhl, k oluo ordr o rduc h lo a h gra x. Rfrc [] Ch aoja. upply Cha Rk Aaly ad arly Warg ym[j]. cfc ad chologcal Iformao dvlopm ad coomc, 28,:4-5 [2] Bo Xaofg. upply Cha Rk ad Maagm[J]. coomc of Cooprao ad chologcal, 28,4:39-4 [3] L Chao,u Qag.upply Cha Rk Maagm[J]. 28,8:8-9 [4] Ma aha,wag Jg.Dfaul rk corol of upply cha bad o VMI crd rk[j]. coomc Jgw, 28,5:7-9 [5] Wag Ya. Crd Rk Aaly of upply Cha Bad o acklbrg gam[j]. Logc chology, 28,2:89-9 [6] Xaoju h. mulaou drmao of hrhold dfaul rk crro ad crd rm wo-agd upply cha[j]. IB, 28I Ch [7] Roha. Gaokar ad. Vwaadham. Aalycal Framwork for h Maagm of Rk upply Cha[J]. I raaco o auomao cc ad grg, 27,42: