Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences

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1 Ausrala Joural of Basc ad Appld Sccs 8 Spcal 4 Pags: 8-5 AENSI Jourals Ausrala Joural of Basc ad Appld Sccs ISSN: Joural hom pag:.aas.com Emprcal Mod Dcomposo for Rvr Flo Forcasg Shuhada Ismal ad A Shar Dparm of Mahmacs Facul of Scc Uvrs kolog Malasa 83 Skuda. Johor Bharu Johor Malasa. Dparm of Mahmacs Facul of Scc Uvrs kolog Malasa 83 Skuda. Johor Bharu Johor Malasa. A R I C E I N F O Arcl hsor: Rcvd 5 Ju 4 Rcvd rvsd form 8 Jul 4 Accpd Augus Ma 4 Avalal ol 3 Augus 4 Kords: as Squar Suppor Vcor Mach Emprcal Mod Dcomposo Rvr Flo Forcasg A B S R A C Backgroud: hs papr vsgas h al ad capal of Emprcal Mod Dcomposo EMD h as Squar Suppor Vcor Mach SSVM modl as a forcasg ool o mprov h accurac of rvr flo forcasg. Ocv: EMD s usd o dcompos h mohl rvr flo daa o svral Irsc Mod Fuco IMFs compos ad rsdu. Afr h dcomposo SSVM ll mplo o hs compos ad aggrgad o produc h fal forcasg valus for ach pu. o assss h ffcvss of hs modl mohl rvr flo rcordd daa from Slagor Rvr Malasa has ulzd as h cas sud. h prformac of h EMD-SSVM modl s compard h Sgl SSVM modl usg varous sascs masurs hch s MAE RMSE R ad CE. Rsuls: h rsuls shod ha EMD- SSVM as al o provd a r rprsao ad good forcasg rsuls compard o Sgl SSVM modl. Cocluso: Prlmar rsuls dcad ha EMD-SSVM srvs as a usful ool ad provd a promsg mhod for rvr flo forcasg. 4 AENSI Pulshr All rghs rsrvd. o C hs Arcl: Shuhada Ismal ad A Shar. Emprcal Mod Dcomposo for Rvr Flo Forcasg. Aus. J. Basc & Appl. Sc. 8: INRODUCION Havg accura formao o rvr flo s a k facor for h plag ad maagm of ar rsourcs. h flo s crcal o ma acvs such as dsgg flood proco orks for ura aras ad agrculural lad ad assssg ho much ar ma dra from a rvr for ar suppl or rrgao. Wh h dvlopm of sofar cholog hr hav umrous approachs afflad o h chqu usd cludg arfcal ural ork ANN. A ANNs s h mos dl ad comprhsv sascal mhods usd for m srs forcasg cludg modlg a compl hdrolog ssm ad has succssfull mplod modlg a d rag of hdrolog procss. hr r som rsarchrs mplod ANN for a sram flo forcasg ad som of hm usd o compar ANNs h h ohr radoal sascal chqu for sram flo prdco. h maor of h suds shod ha ANNs ar al o ouprform ohr radoal sascal chqus Wu al. 8. Asd from ANN Suks ad Vadall 999 hav proposd aohr mhod for forcasg purpos aml as Squar Suppor Vcor Mach SSVM. SSVM s a modfcao form of SVM modl h a addoal advaags ha s rqurs solvg a s of ol lar quaos rahr ha quadrac programmg hch s much asr ad compuaoall mor smpl. SSVM mhod uss qual cosras sad of qual cosras ad adops h las squars lar ssm as s loss fuco makg compuaoall aracv ad also has a cll covrgc ad hgh prcso. SSVM has succssfull appld dvrs flds Afsh al. 7; Gsl al.. I h ar rsourc fld h SSVM mhod has rcvd vr ll ao ad ol a f applcaos of SSVM o modlg of vromal ad cologcal ssms such as ar qual prdco Yurog & agzhog 9 hav prformd. Hovr rvr flo daa ar full h o-lar ad o-saoar. hs ssus cao smpl gor as ll lad o ors forcasg. Svral rsarchr lv of h da of dvd ad coqur prcpl ar mpora cosrucg a rvr flo forcasg al. Yu al. 8. A EMD offrs soluos o o-lar ad o-saoar ssus as EMD s a m frquc rsoluo approach offrs a a hch h o-lar ad o-saoar havor of m srs ca dcomposd o srs of valual dpd m rsoluos ag al.. I also rvals h hdd pars ad rd of m srs Corrspodg Auhor: Shuhada Ismal Dparm of Mahmacs Facul of Scc Uvrs kolog Malasa 83 Skuda. Johor Bharu Johor Malasa.

2 9 Shuhada Ismal ad A Shar 4 Ausrala Joural of Basc ad Appld Sccs 8 Spcal 4 Pags: 8-5 applcaos A al.. Yu ad Ch also proposd a hrd modl of EMD-BP for shor-rm passgr flo forcasg. Guo al. dcomposd d-spd srs usg EMD ad FFNN as usd as a forcasg ool. Ohr ha ha Ch al. proposd a comao of EMD ad ANN for oursm-dmad forcasg. al. proposd a comao EMD asd SSVR for forg chag ra forcasg. I hs papr h ma purpos of hs sud s o furhr dvlop a forcasg chqu of EMD ad SSVM ad usd o prs a rvr flo forcasg ordr o mprov h accurac of rvr flo forcasg. h applcao of EMD-SSVM s pcd o cras h accurac ad capal of rvr flo forcasg as h EMD ll dcomposd rvr flo daa o svral sgals rms of ovrcomg h olar ad o-saoar lmaos o h lar modl. h proposd approach s compard h h Sgl SSVM modl ad s sho ha h proposd modl ca ld mor accura rsuls. Mhodolog: hs sco dscuss aou EMD SSVM ad EMD-SSVM modls usd for rvr flo forcasg. h choc of hs modls hs sud as du o h fac ha hs mhods hav dl ad succssfull usd m srs forcasg. Emprcal Mod Dcomposo: h asc da of EMD s o dcompos m srs o a sum of oscllaor fucos hch s calld rsc mod fucos IMF. Each IMF mus sasf o codos Appah ad Adud hch ar:. I h hol daa s h umr of rma mamum ad mmum ad h umr of zro-crossgs mus hr qual or dffr a mos o;. A a po h ma valu of h vlop dfd h local mama ad h vlop dfd h local mma s zro. h IMFs ca racd from h m srs daa s hrough a rav dcomposo procss as dscrd as h follog sps: Sp : Idf all h local rma of m srs ; Sp : Coc all h local mama a cuc spl l as h uppr vlop u rpa h procdur for h local mma o produc h lor vlop of h ; Sp 3: Calcula h ma of h uppr ad lor vlops ad h frs ma m srs m ha s: / m u Sp 4: Evalua h dffrc h orgal m srs ad h ma m srs ad g h frs IMF ha s: h m Sp 5: Oa h frs IMF ad rpa h aov sps s cssar o fd h scod IMF ad svral ohr IMFS ul h daa rach h fal m srs r as a rsdu compo coms cosa a moooc fuco hch s suggsd for soppg h dcomposo procdur. Sp 6: h h orgal m srs ca prssd as h sum of hs IMFs ad a rsdu h r 3 hr s h umr of IMF compos ad s h fal rsdu. as Squars Suppor Vcor Mach: h SSVM as a modfcao of SVM as roducd Suks al. 5. h SSVM provds a compuaoal advaag ovr h sadard SVM covrg a quadrac opmzao prolm o a ssm of lar quaos. hs vrso of SVM smplfs ad covrg h prolm quckl. h SSVM prdcor s rad usg a s of m srs hsorc valus as pus ad a sgl oupu as h arg valu. h SSVM has dvlopd o fd h opmall o-lar rgrsso fuco: 4

3 Shuhada Ismal ad A Shar 4 Ausrala Joural of Basc ad Appld Sccs 8 Spcal 4 Pags: 8-5 Wh SSVM s usd for fuco smao h opmzao prolm s formulad mmzg h rgular fuco Suks al. 5 as: R m 5 suc o h qual cosras.... o solv hs opmzao prolm agrag fuco s cosrucd as: } { 6 hr s agrag mulplrs. h soluo of 6 ca oad parall dffrag h rspc o ad accordgl:. Afr lmao of ad as h soluo s gv h follog s of lar quaos: I 7 hr... ad ;...;.... hs fall lads o h follog SSVM modl for fuco smao: K 8 hr ad ar h soluo o h lar ssm. For SSVM hr ar ma krl fucos ad h ampls of h krl fuco ar as follos: ar: K Polomal: d r K Radal ass fuco RBF: p K hr r ad d ar krl paramrs. h mos popular krl fuco usd SSVM s h Radal Bass Fuco RBF caus of RBF has supror ffcc compar o ohr krls. Proposd EMD-SSVM Modl: Rvr flos forcasg s usd o prdc fuur valus asd o pas valus ad ohr varals. Hovr h rvr flos daass ar full h o-lar ad o-saoar. For hs raso h proposd modl s mplod accordg o h prcpal of dcomposo ad sml H al.; Wag al.; al.. h proposd modl of EMD-SSVM s lv ha al ovrcom h o-lar ad osaoar prolms. h procdurs of h proposd modl coss of four ma sps:

4 Shuhada Ismal ad A Shar 4 Ausrala Joural of Basc ad Appld Sccs 8 Spcal 4 Pags: 8-5 Mohl rvr flos daa m srs r dcomposd o IMF compos ad o rsdu compo r EMD chqu. Afr h dcomposo procss ach oad IMFs ad rsdu compos s aalsd ad drm h pu modls. 3 Afr h pu modls drmd h daa s furhr pu o h SSVM forcasg chqu modl ad cosqul h corrspodg forcasd valus for all of h pu modls for all IMFs ad rsdu compos ar acqurd from h forcasg ool. 4 h forcasd valu of ach of h pu modls for all IMFs ad rsdu compos h prvous sag ll rcosrucd as a sum of all compos ad ll usd as fal rsuls accordgl compard h sgl modl SSVM usg svral prformac masurms. h da of EMD-SSVM s prsd Fgur. Fg. : h proposd modl of EMD-SSVM Modl. Sud Ara ad Daa: I hs rsarch amd h daa oad from h mohl rvr flo of h Slagor Rvr locad Slagor Psular Malasa. Slagor Rvr s h hrd largs rvr as cachms ara Slagor Malasa. h lgh of h Slagor Rvr aou km from h Ma Rag mouas ordrg h Sa of Pahag ar h Frasr Hll s rsor ad flos hrough h o of Kuala Kuu Baru ad Darah Hulu Slagor o h Baag Brua ad Kuala Slagor Kuala Slagor Dsrc for rg h mouh of h Malacca Sras. Slagor Rvr as 7 km lgh ad cachm ara cdg. squar klomrs ad s also corus of 6% of ar suppl for domsc ad dusral us of h Sa of Slagor ad h Klag Vall gral. h osrvao daa for Slagor Rvr as rcordd from Jauar 96 o Dcmr 6. h hol daas ar spl up o o pars of 9% ad % for rag ad sg rspcvl. h frs daas coss of 54 mohl rcords from Jauar 96 o Dcmr s usd for rag hl h rmag 6 rcordd from Jauar o Dcmr 6 s usd for sg phas. rag daa s usd clusvl for modl dvlopm ad sg daa s usd o masur h prformac of h modl o urad daa. h sg s s also usd o valua h forcasg al of h modl ad o compar h proposd modl h ohrs. Fgur sho h daa plog for Jauar 96 ul Dcmr 6 for Slagor Rvr Slagor. hs graph shos h m srs has a par of havour s gog up ad do ad sasoal varao h h hghs mohl flo usuall occurs Ocor o Dcmr ach ars. Prformac Crra: hr ar dffr ps of prformac valuao ha hav documd h lraur ucha & Ma 3; Gosam al. 5. h prformac valuao for ach modl should hav a las a masur of asolu rror such as Ma Asolu Error MAE or Roo Ma Squar Error RMSE gas & McCa 999. Wag al. 6 sad ha RMSE s a good prformac valuao masurm caus s vr ssv o v small rrors hch cas s r o compar h small dffrcs h modl s prformac.

5 Shuhada Ismal ad A Shar 4 Ausrala Joural of Basc ad Appld Sccs 8 Spcal 4 Pags: 8-5 Fg. : Mohl Sram flo for Slagor Rvr From Jauar 96 Dcmr 6. h crros o udg for h s modl ar rlavl small of MAE ad RMSE h modlg ad forcasg. Ohr ha ha h Corrlao Coffc R as also usd as a prformac masurm. R as also usd o s h al of h modl o capur h compl aur of h procss ha as g modlld. I s a masur of ho ll h fuur oucoms ar lkl o prdcd h modl hr h prdcd flos corrla h h osrvd flos. h R valu s usd o valua h lar corrlao h osrvd ad h prdcd flo. Clarl a R valu clos o dcas a sasfacor rsul hl a lo valu or clos o o mpls a adqua rsul. Ohr ha usg MAE RMSE ad R ohr rsarchrs lv ha CE ko as Nash Suclff Coffc Effcc s o of h s prformac masurms ha ca usd o assss h prdcv por of hdrologcal modls. Essall h closr h CE s o o h mor accura h modl. al : Prformac Crro Usd h Cas Suds Crro al Formula Ma Asolu Error MAE Roo Ma Squar Error Corrlao Coffc Coffc of Effcc oˆ ad oˆ RMSE R CE R MAE oˆ RMSE oˆ o ˆ oˆ o oˆ CE - oˆ dos h osrvd srs h ma of h osrvd srs h prdcd srs ad h ma of h prdcd srs rspcvl.

6 3 Shuhada Ismal ad A Shar 4 Ausrala Joural of Basc ad Appld Sccs 8 Spcal 4 Pags: 8-5 Forcasg Rsuls: h forcasg rsuls of h proposd modl EMD-SSVM ar compard o h o-emd forcasg modls ko as sgl SSVM modl. For h proposd modl of EMD-SSVM a EMD as frs appld o h daass of mohl rvr flo daa Slagor rvr. h asc cocp of h proposd modl s ha h daa ll dcomposd o svral IMFs ad o rsdu. Basd o Fgurs 3 dcas ha h mohl rvrs flo daa r dcompos o umr of IMFs ad o rsdu rspcvl. hs dcomposo rsuls ar lv ll hac h modls forcasg accurac. Afr h dcomposo h dpd IMFs ad rsdual compos ar usd SSVM modl cosrucos. A SSVM ca do a r forcas for ach group of h IMFs. I hs sud RBF as usd as h krl fuco for SSVM modl. A RBF krl mplod som dvrs krl fucos for hr modllg ad dmosrad ha h RBF krl has supror ffcc ha ohr krl. I ordr o r valua h prformac of h proposd approach cosdrd a grd sarch of h h rag o ad h rag. o.. For ach hpr paramr par h sarch spac-fold cross valdao o h rag s as prformd o prdc h prdco rror. h mov of choosg SSVM s caus volvs h qual cosras. Hc h soluo s oad solvg a ssm of lar quaos. Effc ad scalal algorhms such as hos asd o couga grad ca appld o solv SSVM. A h rcosruco sp all forcasd valus from h dvdual EMD-SSVM modls r comd ordr o compar hm h ohr modls. Fg. 3: h racd IMFs ad Rsdu Compos. Comparso of Forcasg Rsuls: I hs sco h prdcv capals of h proposd EMD-SSVM modl ar compard h sgl SSVM for h Slagor mohl rvr flo. Furhrmor h MAE RMSE R ad CE ar usd o valua h prformac of h oh modls. h sascal rsuls of h dffr modls ar summarzd al. From

7 4 Shuhada Ismal ad A Shar 4 Ausrala Joural of Basc ad Appld Sccs 8 Spcal 4 Pags: 8-5 al ca od ha h EMD-SSVM modl has h s prformac h h los MAE ad RMSE ad h largs R ad CE for oh of rag ad sg phas for Slagor Rvr. I h rag phas for Slagor Rvr h proposd EMD-SSVM modl mprovd ovr sgl SSVM modl h aou a 3.76% ad 35.35% rduco MAE ad RMSE valus rspcvl 3.7% ad 5.96% mprovms for h R ad CE valus rspcvl. As for sg phas EMD-SSVM mprovd ovr sgl SSVM modl h aou a 76.34% ad 45.56% R ad CE valus rspcvl 3.48% ad 37.7% rducos MAE ad RMSE valus rspcvl. al : Slagor Rvr Comparav prformac of SSVM ad EMD-SSVM. Ipu rag sg MAE RMSE R CE MAE RMSE R CE Ipu Ipu SSVM Ipu Ipu Ipu Ipu Ipu Ipu EMD-SSVM Ipu Ipu Ipu Ipu Fgur 4 sho h comparso h osrvd ad prdcd flos daa for h las s mohs for h sg phas o h Slagor Rvr EMD-SSVM ad Sgl SSVM. From Fgur 4 EMD-SSVM gav h mos clos appromao o h acual osrvao daa compard o Sgl SSVM modl. Fg. 4: Prdcd ad Osrvd Rvr Flo durg sg Prod EMD-SSVM ad Sgl SSVM modls For Slagor Rvr Coclusos: hr has crasg ao gv o fdg a ffcv modl o addrss h prolm of rvr flo forcasg rms of o-lar ad o-saoar characrscs. I hs papr a EMD-SSVM modl s proposd for rvr flo forcasg. I hs sud Slagor Rvr as usd as a cas sud o dmosra h capal ad al of EMD-SSVM rvr flo forcasg. A EMD as usd o dcompos h daas o svral IMFs ad a rsdu. Afr h dcomposo SSVM as h usd as a forcasg ool. hrough mprcal comparso h proposd EMD-SSVM ad Sgl SSVM modl s prov ha EMD-SSVM modl ouprforms a sgl SSVM asd o svral prformac crra. h rsul dmosras ha h prformac of rvr flo forcasg ca sgfcal hacd usg h proposd EMD-SSVM modl. Hc ca cocludd ha h proposd EMD-SSVR modl ma a alrav ad a ffcv ool for rvr flo forcasg. Furhrmor hroughou comparso appld mohl rvr flo daa ca cocludd ha h rduco of h umrs of pu varals rsuld h shorg h SSVM rag ad sg prods. I hs sud ol rvr flo daa r cosdrd aalss so h fuur rsarch ca furhr s h da of h proposd modl mplod h rafall-ruoff daa ahr forcas coomc ad so o o prov s capal ad usal. ACKNOWEDGEMENS hs rsarch s facall suppord Zamalah Scholarshp Uvrs kolog Malasa.

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