Cavity. Weather. Burglary. Earthquake T T F F T F T F Alarm .001 T F JohnCalls T F. MaryCalls P(E) P(B) P(A B,E) P(J A)

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1 yr 5r 5ƒkW%k Y5_i[9«1h _5Y5d1m1_ië d\zy5mrc[rc ZYk]X c Ybm1_k k_5ybm1_5y5d_%]\ejep_kh [Rc ZYbeŠ Weather Cavity! #"%$'&)(*+-,/ '6 oothache Catch /œbšzži -œ\ cec Y5mX_X 5_5Y5mX_kY\[ 5 '[R 5_5[R 5_5hy X]5h3c ]1oX _e X žr š!±5 -œ ]XYbm ² šzž±5 ]5h _d\zy5mrc[rcry5]1 Wc Y5mX_k k_5y5mx_ky\[ƒ!c k_5y ² šr³zéžµ 798:7<; =CD GD H I/D 798:7<; =CD GD H I VUXWZY\[]^ VUZ_Xà]XYb[Rc de gf]5h ]Z` _i[j_kh<c l_\mnm!c e[rh<c okpb[rc ry\e KLNPORQ%S ` ]\[ «1h3 k Y5_5cƒr Zo51h bz 1Y¹db]X e[jºer]rw»` Wº]X ]5h`¼cenh3c Ybƒrc Y\ƒ okpb[yb_5cƒ! 1o51h ½ ]5h W m11_eiy [adb]x ¾%Urrà_i[Rc ` _iec[ ee_[ak ÀoRWÁ`c Yb1h _\]kh [R 5Ârpk]1 P_e\¾ e [R b_kh _n] okp1h ƒ! ]5h<Ã Ä ]5h3c ]1oX _e\š ÅÆ kçè9šr É šz XžR Ê Æ šëœ Ì È9šr kí Î! ² š!è<è3ÿ Ï šr kµ ² š!è<è3ÿ Ð _[9«1h3 a[j! 5r kƒ5w¹h _ r_d[e d\]xpber]x º 5Yb\«a _\mkƒ1_kš Ñ oxpxh ƒr ]5h'd\]1YeP_i[ [R b_ ]1 ]5h`Ò5 Ñ Y%_\]kh [R 5Ârpk]1 P_db]XYeP_[ [R b_ ]X ]5h3`5 Ñ 5_]X ]5h`Òdb]XY db]xp\ep_ ½ ]5h W [jnd\]x Ñ 5_]X ]5h`Òdb]XY db]xp\ep_ \Z 1Y [jdb]x 798:7<; =CD GD H Is; 798:7<; =CD GD H IsÓ tvu+w S xyo u QzQ S+Lr{# }N~x %u Ô PS Õ+ aqalyö¹ eic ` X _X rƒ!h ]1 X Xc d\]1!y55[]\[rc ZY% 9Xh'drYbm!c[Rc ZYk]X -c Y5mX_X 5_5Y5mX_kYbd_%]\ee_kh [Rc ZYbe ]XYbm b_kybd_ 91h d\r` b]bd[ e k_d5cˆrdb]\[rcry%k ' 3p1 \ rc Yb[m!ce[Rh<c okpb[rcry\e UXWZY\[]^ZŠ ]ep_i[k YbZmX_e ZY5_ 5_khN k]5h3c ]1ok _ ] mrc h _di[j_\m! ]5dRW5dk c dƒrh9]1 X nœ c Y1 Ž mrc h _\di[r Wc Yb -pb_kybd\_ie Z ] drybm!c[pc ry5]x rmrce[rh<c okpb[rcry% 1h'_\]bd5 YbZmX_ƒ!c k_5y c[e b]kh _ky\[e\š 9 šr 1œ\ žrÿ1 j Y [R b_ec ` k _ie[ d\]\ep_k!drybm!c[pc ry5]x rmrce[rh<c okpb[rcryh _X bh _iep_5yb[j_m]\e ] drybm!c[rc ZYk]X y bh ro5]1okc c[9w%[]1ox _ Œj )f- ƒrc 1c Y\ƒn[R 5_ mrcej[rh3c oxp\[rc ZY5 5_kh 9Xh'_\]bdk d\r` okc Y5]\[Rc ZY5 5]5h _ky\[ X]X p5_ie P(,) P().1 larm P( ).9.5 arthuake P().2 P( ) :7<; =CD GD H IsI 798:7<; =CD GD H IsØ

2 À ª u Õ L Q S xx < Õ u x-s ªu QaLNOÕ+x )f º 1h N1r _b]xy «ac[p Ë NZZ _\]1Ya b]kh _5Yb[e) 5]\e h «e 91hN[R 5_d\r` okc Y5]\[Rc ZYbea5 b]kh _ky\[ k]1 p5_ie ]bd5 nh «h _Â!pXc h _ë ryb_yxpz`ok_5h 91h Ážj Æ œ Œ<[R b_yxpz`ok_5h 91h yš!è3ÿbœ c e' Ppbe[ +_b]bd5 k]5h3c ]Zok _% k]\e Y5` 1h _ [R k]xy Ë 5]5h _ky\[e\ [P 5_d!` X _[_Y5_i[9«1h h _\Ârp1c h _ie Y1p1`ok_5h e ¾ _X¾ Zƒ!h \«e c Yb_b]5h< W «ac[r 1 be\¾ 1h [R b_ px Zc Y\[ mrce[rh<c okpb[pc ry 1h oxpxh ƒr ]5h W Y5_i[i YXpZ`o5_kh eœ< be\¾! = Zd\]X ep_kà]1y\[rc die\š)_b]bd5 YbZmX_cë dzy5mrc[rc ZYk]X W¹c Y5mX_X 5_5Y5mX_kY\[ 5 c[eybrybm1_iepd_5y5m1]1y\[ë ƒrc 5_kY c[e 5]5h _5Y\[e Z 1j U 1 X U m Z nj Y 1 Y n b_1h _k`š = Zd\]X 1eP_kà]1Y\[Rc die?> ƒ!!ob]x 1eP_k` ]XY\[Rc die 798:7<; =CD GD H I#" 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH $ P &% u x-s ªu QaLNOÕ)x u }y~ C%n u Q%~ S+L '!ob]x e_xà]xyb[rcdë mx_ˆ-yb_e [R b_ px Zc Y\[ mrce[rh<c okpb[rcry ]\e[r 5_ 5h Zmrp5di[ k [R 5_ Zd\]X Zd\ZY5mrc[RcrY5]X rm!ce[rh<c okpb[rcry\e\š - #. /( ¹ j šz Zœ\ žrÿ1 j _k¾ ƒ!¾ 132ºÍ42Áš œ5 ]bd5 ny51mx_ncë d\zy5mrc[rcry5]x Wc Ybm1_k 5_kYbm1_5Y\[ k )]X Zk[P 5_5h e ƒ!c k_5y c[3e ½ ]5h P5 ok ]XYZ P_[ Š b]kh _ky\[edsd5 1c mrh _5YDsd5 Xc mrh _5Y e 5]5h _ky\[e U 1 U m Z 1j X Z nj Y 1 Y n 798:7<; =CD GD H I#8 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH I/D D $ P &% u x-s ªu QaLNOÕ)x # aq%xrly} K Õ'LNOPQ5 tvu)w S)xyO u QzQ%S+Lr{# }N~x ' ro5]x ep_xà]xyb[pc diemx_ˆ-y5_ie [R 5_ p1 R rc Yb[)m!ce[Rh<c oxp\[rc ZY ]\e[r 5_ 5h Zmrp5di[ k [R 5_ Zd\]X Zd\ZY5mrc[RcrY5]X rm!ce[rh<c okpb[rcry\e\š - #. /( ¹ j šz Zœ\ žrÿ1 j _k¾ ƒ!¾ 132ºÍ42Áš œ5 v 1' š! ÍÀ š!j <š' 67)96 œ5j :67\j :6œ5 Ð _\_m] ` _[P 51m epbd5 [R 5]\[ ]ep_5h3c_e k 1db]X W%[j_ie[]1ok _ ]\eep_5h [Rc ry\ë k dzy5mrc[rc ZYk]X c Ybm1_k k_5y5mx_5y5d_ƒrpk]5h ]1Y\[j e [P 5_h _\Ârp1c h _m ƒr ro5]x 1e_Xà]XYb[Rcde G ¾ + 51ke_ ]XY%1h m1_5h<c Ybƒ 5 k]5h3c ]1ok _ie (*)+++)P H ¾ 1h I G [j ]bmxm [j[r 5_%Y5_i[9«1h3 ep_5 _di[ b]kh _5Yb[e 3h r` (*)+++)P ( epbdk [R 5]b[ 9 šr 1œ\ žrÿ1 j v (*)K+++)- ( Xcë d5 5Zc d_5 5]5h _5Yb[eƒ!p5]kh ]XYb[j ie [R 5_ƒr ro5]x 1eP_kà]1Y\[Rc die\š L. N/&( 9 j (*)O+,+ +,)- P(3 Œ3d5 k]xc Y h<px _b. N/&( 9 j šr 1œ\ žrÿ1 j ŒPoRW%drY\e[Rh3pbdi[Rc ryk 798:7<; =CD GD H I#; 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH I/D ;

3 UpZ X k5ep_ «_dk bz5ep_[r b_1h m1_5h3c Ybƒ Ï UpZ X k5ep_ «_dk bz5ep_[r b_1h m1_5h3c Ybƒ Ï larm Î Ï- Ò Î Ã 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH I/D I arthuake Ì Î ) Ï- Ò Ì Î Ã Ì Î ) Ï- Ò Ì Ã Ð Å Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò Å Ì Ã N_ie Å Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò Å Ã Ð É Å ) Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò É Ì Ã É Å ) Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò É Ì ) Å Ã 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH I/D Ø UpZ X k5ep_ «_dk bz5ep_[r b_1h m1_5h3c Ybƒ Ï UpZ X k5ep_ «_dk bz5ep_[r b_1h m1_5h3c Ybƒ Ï larm larm Ì Î ) Ï- Ò Ì Î Ã Ì Î ) Ï- Ò Ì Ã 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH I/D arthuake Ì Î ) Ï- Ò Ì Î Ã Ì Î ) Ï- Ò Ì Ã Ð Å Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò Å Ì Ã N_ie Å Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò Å Ã Ð É Å ) Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò É Ì Ã Ð É Å ) Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò É Ì ) Å Ã N_ie 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH I/D " %u Ô PS Õ+ aqalyö¹ UpZ X k5ep_ «_dk bz5ep_[r b_1h m1_5h3c Ybƒ Ï larm larm Ì Î ) Ï- Ò Ì Î Ã Ì Î ) Ï- Ò Ì Ã Ð Å Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò Å Ì Ã Å Ì ) Î ) Ï- Ò Å Ã 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH I/D Ó arthuake _dkcm!c Ybƒ drybm!c[rc ZYk]X -c Y5mX_X 5_5Y5mX_kYbd\_ce 5]kh mc Y YbrYbdb]Xp\eR]X Zm!c h _d[pc ry\e Œj ]Xp\eR]X -` 1m1_5 e ]XYbm drybm!c[rc ZYk]X -c Y5mX_X 5_5Y5mX_kYbd\_eP k` k]5h m5«ac h _mn 91h) 1p1` ]XY\e ejep_ieec Y\ƒ drybm!c[rc ZYk]X - 5h ro5]1okc c[rc _iece 5]5h m¹c Y YbrYbd\]1p\eR]X Zm!c h _di[rc ry\e Ð _[9«1h3 ce _ieë d!` 5]bdi[iŠ! YXpZ`o5_kh ey5 m1_m 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH I/D 8

4 RQQO V U» %ü ª PS u }/ÖO u aq% x-opx Y1c[Pc ]X Z_i 1c mx_5y5d_xš)db]5hy«ry [ej[]kh [ y_ie[]1ok _ k]5h3c ]Zok _ieœ<ƒ!h kyk i Ro5h! P_kY1 rep%ˆ1^c[ X]5h<c ]1oX _eœ3xh9]xybƒx_5 c mxm1_5y X]5h<c ]1oX _eœ<ƒ!h ]iwx _5Y\ep1h _e\ b]kh ep_ e[rh<p5di[rp1h _X yh _\mrp5d_n 5]5h ]1à_i[j_5h e age dead meter lights alternator flat oil light no charging fanbelt no oil gas gauge no gas car won t start fuel line blocked dipstick starter 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH I/D ; # ª u Õ'LsÕ+ aq%öojlnop aq u ÖnOx!Ly} O%nKL O aq%xòõ+ Q LyÖ¹ Ð rcew mrce[rh<c okpb[rcry\e%` 1m1_5 -`px [Rc X _ny5zy1c Yb[j_5h9]bdi[Rc Y\ƒd\]Xpbe_e G f]5h _ky\[e ( +++ c Y5d5 pbm1_]1 Zdb]Xp\eP_e Œ3db]XY%]bm1m _b]1 Y51mX_ H Y5mX_X 5_kYbm1_5Y\[ <]Xc p1h _n 5h!ob]Zokc c[9w Ê\ 91h _b]bd5 %d\]xpbep_]x ZY5_ v ( +++)6 P( +++6!. /( Ê\ ² È" #%È Æ Ï š!è9šr k jš "#œ\³œ\ 1 :6#%œ\³œ\ 1 $% $ + + & $%"' + ( $% ) + &*( + +,+ + + $% - + & + * (*( &*(*( ,+ + Ð pz`ok_5h'k b]kh ]1à_i[j_5h e /"" c Y Y1p1` o5_5h+5 5]5h _ky\[e 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH Is; ; u } OPQ%xyK } u Q%Õ+S Sociocon ge GoodStudent xtracar ileage Riskversion VehicleYear Seniorrain DrivingSkill akeodel DrivingHist ntilock DrivQuality irbag CarValue Homease ntiheft Ruggedness ccident heft OwnDamage Cushioning OtherCost OwnCost edicalcost LiabilityCost PropertyCost 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH 7 w %}NOPÖ985ÖnOx-Õ+}NS'LyS!:/Õ+ aqalnopqk K x<;q%s'lr{ }y~x c epdkh _i[j_œ Æ 7\Ÿ\ 1µ>= ]XY5m Å%Æ Y1pbrp\eŒ šr k³œkÿ\ž ]XY5m ² Ÿž Subsidy? Cost uys? Harvest [Rc ZY G Š mrcedkh _[Rclb]\[RcrY k5eec ox W ]kh ƒ1 5h3h 1h e y ]5h ƒx_ )f- )e [Rc ZY H Š)ˆ-YXc[j_5 W¹ b]5h9]1` _[j_5h3cl\_m d\]1ybryxc d\]x 1 <]1`c c _ie G NrY\[Rc YXp5Zpbe X]5h<c ]1oX _X!m!cePd5h _i[j_d dry\[rc YXp5Zpbe b]kh _ky\[eœ3_k¾ ƒ¾ ² Ÿž H cepd5h _i[j_ k]kh<c ]1ok _k!d\zyb[rc Y1pbrp\e b]kh _ky\[eœ3_k¾ ƒ¾ Å%Æ µÿc= 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH Is; I À ª u Õ LsÕ+ Q ÖnOL O aq u ¹ÖnOPxrLy} O%nKLNOP aq x +f- Àƒrh «ë _R^r 5rYb_kY\[Rc ]X W%«ac[R Y5r¾5 b]kh _ky\[e +f- o5_d\rà_iec Y\ŷYXc[j_a«ac[R %d\zyb[rc Y1pbrp\e < k]1 p5_má b]kh _ky\[1h dk Xc m UZr pb[rcry1š d\]xy5zy1cdb]x mrcej[rh3c oxp\[rc ZYbë [R 5]b[ ]5h _m1_iˆ-y5_m d!` 5]bdi[R W _i[j_5h`c YXce[Rcd Yb1m1_ie ]5h _[R b_eic ` X _e[db]\ep_kš + < šz Zœ\ žrÿ1 1h e!` _ pxy5di[rc ZY ¾ ƒ¾ P NZZ _\]XY p1ybdi[rc ry\e XžR Ì Í»œ\ k j±\šz > ² šz 'š Z jšz Ï œy j±šr ¾ ƒ¾ -Y1p1à_5h<c d\]1 h _5 ]\[RcrY\e 1c \ea]z` ZYbƒ dzyb[rc Y1pbrp\e k]kh<c ]1oX _e œb³!œ5è c Yb r\«d 5h _\d5c kc[]\[rc ZY Zpb[ r\«_r k]z 51h ]\[Rc ZY ž # aqalnopqk K xõ<doppöc u }NO u %nps)x Ð _\_m ryb_ drybm!c[pc ry5]x m1_5ybec[9w pxy5di[rc ZY 91hd5 Xc m X]5h<c ]1oX _ºƒ!c 5_5Y d\zyb[rc Y1pbrp\e b]5h _5Yb[e r 91h _b]bd5 5kejec ok _ ]\eecƒ!y1à_5yb[ [jnmrcepd5h _i[j_n b]kh _5Yb[e ½ 5e[ d!`` rynce [R 5_ c Yb_b]5h ' ]1p\eec ]XY ` ZmX_5!_X¾ ƒ!¾ Š ² Ÿž»±Z šz k³œkÿ\ž ) Æ 7bŸ Zµ>= Ážj Æ œ5 <šhg< 7IGN)@KG<R 9±b >GL CN œ POQQQR ± <šhg< 7IG< KG S US ½ _\]XY ² Ÿ\ž k]kh<c _ie c Y5_\]5h3 W«ac[R šr k³œkÿ\ž 1 X]5h3c ]XY5d_ce ˆ1^k_m = c Yb_b]5hy X]5h<c ]\[Rc ZY cepxy1h _b]\epzyk]1ok _5 5_kh [R b_ px h ]1Y\ƒ1_ okpb[ «1h ReWYXÀc [R 5_ /ZZ[\2K/ ] h ]1Y\ƒ1_k šr k³œkÿ\ž ce Yk]5h3h \«7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH Is; D 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH Is;

5 # aqalnopqk K xõ<doppöc u }NO u %nps)x P(Cost Harvest,Subsidy?=true) Cost Harvest dry\[rc YXp5ZpbeYb_i[9«Xh «ac[r = ' mrce[rh<c okpb[rcry\e p1 \ Zc Y\[ mrce[ph3c okpb[pc rycea] `p1 [Pc k]kh<c ]\[j_ ' ]Xpbeeic ]XY cepdkh _i[j_ DadrYb[Pc Y1pbrp\e = ' Y5_i[9«1h3 cen] d\zy5mrc[rcry5]1 ' ]Xpbeeic ]XY Yb_i[<«Xh c ¾ _k¾ ] `px [Rc X]5h3c ]\[j_ ' ]Xpbejec ]XYn5 5_5h ]1 dzyb[rc Y1pbrp\e k]5h3c ]1oX _iea 91h)_\]bdk d\r` okc Y5]b[Pc ry 5 mrcedkh _[j_a X]5h3c ]1oX _ k]x pb_e Ox-Õ+}NS'LyS u } O u %nps¼õ+ aq LyÖ¹ Ucƒ!àZc m Œ31h kƒrc[ m!ce[rh3c oxp\[rc ZYn]X eppbe_\mc Y Yb_kpXh9]X Y5_i[9«1h3 ie\š ÅÆ µ-ÿc=k Ážj Æ œ ² Ÿž»±b- œ " Ucƒ!àZc m 5]beec `c ]kh ei k]1 5_[j bh roxc[okpb[ `pbd5 ry\ƒ1_5h []Xc e\š P(uys?=false Cost=c) Cost c 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH Is; Ó 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH Is; 8 Ox-Õ+}yS+LyS u } O u %ns { Õ) aq LNORQK% ak%x u }ys Q Lyx fnh ro5]1okc c[9wn5 Å%Æ µ-ÿ= ƒ!c k_5y ² Ÿ\ž e brpx máo5_ ] <ep5 [ n[r Xh _ie 5Z m!š P(uys?=false Cost=c) K ªu } w ]RW\_e Y5_i[e 5h 5 1c mx_ ]ny5]\[rp1h ]X -h _k 5h _iep_5yb[j]b[rcry 1h Œ3d\]XpbeR]X Wc Y5mrp5d_\mZ dzy5mrc[rc ZYk]X c Ybm1_k k_5y5mx_5y5d_ yr 5r 5ƒkWD )f )e I d\r` 5]bdi[ h _X bh _iep_5yb[]\[rcry%k! Zc Y\[m!ce[Rh<c oxp\[rc ZY ' _5Yb_kh ]1 W_\]\ejW 91h)ŒY5ZYX _R^r 5_kh [ë [ dzybe[rh<p5di[ N]XY5ZY1c d\]x Zm!ce[Rh<c oxp\[rc ZYbeŒ3_k¾ ƒ¾ yybrcejw I d\r` b]bd[ah _k 5h _iep_5yb[j]b[rcry%k ) )f- )e yry\[rc YXp5Zpbe) X]5h<c ]1oX _e b]kh ]1à_i[j_5h3cl\_m%mrce[Rh<c okpb[rcry\eaœ3_k¾ ƒ¾! c Yb_b]5h ' ]1p\eec ]XYX Cost c fnh roxc[ mrce[rh<c okpb[rcrypbe_e c Yb[_ƒrh9]X Zk ' ]Xpbejec ]XY1Š a - ) R ZN 4 ÅÆ µ-ÿc=k ºž Æ œ ² Ÿ\ž»±b- j ± *' 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH Is; Ø 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH Is; ; G ¾ [ e e1h [5 '[R 5_%h3cƒ! \[ei k]1 5_ D w LD%S }y &%nojl H ¾ ]XY 1c _R«Ò]\e 5]5h m[r 1h _ei 5Z m«a 55eP_ Zd\]\[Rc ZYce ep1oj _d[ [jy5zcep_ Cost Cost Noise uys? 7<8:P7<; = C3D GDH Is; "

Outline. Bayesian networks. Example. Bayesian networks. Example contd. Example. Syntax. Semantics Parameterized distributions. Chapter 14.

Outline. Bayesian networks. Example. Bayesian networks. Example contd. Example. Syntax. Semantics Parameterized distributions. Chapter 14. Outline Syntax ayesian networks Semantics Parameterized distributions Chapter 4. 3 Chapter 4. 3 Chapter 4. 3 2 ayesian networks simple, graphical notation for conditional independence assertions and hence