Corporate Profits Tax and Innovative Investments

Transcription

1 Corporate Profits Tax and Innovative Investments Andrew Atkeson Ariel Burstein Manolis Chatzikonstantinou UCLA, Fed MPLS UCLA UCLA May 2018

2 Introduction Impact of changes in corporate profits taxes on dynamics of aggregate output? How much do changes in firms incentives to invest in innovation matter? Barro-Furman (2018), CBO, Penn-Wharton Budget Model R&D capital accumulation, parallel to physical capital Atkeson-Burstein (2018) model of firm dynamics and innovation: Expensing for tax purposes of investment in entry vs. innovation by incumbents, business stealing, markups, gap btw private & social returns due to spillovers Extend results on aggregate implications of policy-induced changes in innovation

3 AB Model Pros: Nest range of models that allow for innovation by incumbents and entrants Jones (2002) NS: Grossman Helpman (1991), Aghion Howitt (1992), Klette Kortum (2004), Acemoglu and Cao (2015) EV: Romer (1990), Luttmer (2007, 11), Atkeson and Burstein (2010) Tractable aggregate transition dynamics and welfare Clear guide for measurement, building on Ackigit and Kerr (2016), Garcia, Hsieh, and Klenow (2016) Cons: Does not nest models that need state variable for firm types Lentz and Mortensen (2008), Luttmer (2011), Acemoglu, Ackigit, Bloom, and Kerr (2013) and Peters (2016)

4 Impact of a permanent in corporate profits tax Log change Output Output 10 years Long run Welfare Exogenous productivity Endogenous innovation [0.002, 0.05] [ 3.26, 3.28] [ 0.11, 0.22] Ten-year horizon: consideration of impact of corporate profits taxes on firms incentives to innovate does not results in large absolute differences (relative to e.g. business cycle variation) Long-run: potentially large impact (positive or negative) depending on intertemporal knowledge spillovers is there too much or too little entry in the initial equilibrium?

5 Talk Outline Simple model only entrants invest two sufficient statistics for long-run, transition dynamics simple bound on impact elasticity Add investment by incumbent firms reallocation of innovation between entrants and incumbents Calibration and policy experiment Results

6 Model outline Two final goods output: consumption and physical investment research good: input to innovation Output produced from differentiated intermediate goods produced with physical capital and production labor Research good produced with research labor Entrants invest research good to acquire a differentiated good create new intermediate goods or improve upon existing goods (business stealing) Later: add innovation by incumbents

7 Intermediate Goods and Final Consumption Good Intermediate Goods y t(z) = exp(z)k t(z) α l pt(z) 1 α Measure of products M t(z), M t = z Mt(z) Aggregate Output Y t = [ z ] ρ y t(z) ρ 1 ρ 1 ρ M t(z) = C t + K t+1 (1 d k )K t Assuming constant markups µ > 1 and common factor prices Y t = Z tkt α L 1 α pt K t = z k t(z)m t(z) L pt = z l pt(z)m t(z) Aggregate productivity [ Z t = exp(z) ρ 1 M t(z) z ] 1/(ρ 1)

8 Inputs into Innovative Investment Research good Y rt = A rtz φ 1 t L rt Research labor L rt = L t L pt. Intertemporal knowledge spillovers φ 1 Research TFP = A rtz φ 1 t Jones (2002) and Bloom et. al. (2017) Exogenous Scientific Progress A rt grows at ḡ Ar, labor L t grows at ḡ L φ < 1 ideas get harder to find" Balanced growth path Y rt constant ḡ Z = ḡl + ḡ Ar 1 φ

9 Investments and Aggregate Productivity Growth Innovation technologies imply tractable equilibrium aggregation: subject to log Z t+1 log Z t = G(x et) x et = Y rt Each entrant spends 1 M t units of the research good at t = x etm t new products Fraction δ e stolen, 1 δ e new to society Externalities in productivity: E exp(z ) ρ 1 = η e Z ρ 1 t Mt Evolution of aggregate productivity log Z t+1 log Z t = 1 log [(1 δct) + ηexet] ρ 1 Product exit δ ct = δ 0 + δ ex et

10 Investments and Aggregate Productivity Growth Innovation technologies imply tractable equilibrium aggregation: subject to log Z t+1 log Z t = G(x et) x et = Y rt Each entrant spends 1 M t units of the research good at t = x etm t new products Fraction δ e stolen, 1 δ e new to society Externalities in productivity: E exp(z ) ρ 1 = η e Z ρ 1 t Mt Evolution of aggregate productivity log Z t+1 log Z t = 1 log [(1 δct) + ηexet] ρ 1 Product exit δ ct = δ 0 + δ ex et

11 Physical capital holding firm and corporate profits tax Firm chooses investment K t+1 to maximize t=0 QtD kt D kt = (1 τ)r kt K t (1 τλ k ) (K t+1 (1 δ k )K t) ( 1 τ 1 τλ k ) R kt+1 δ k = R t+1 where R kt = α Y t µ K t Long run change in user cost of capital log K t log K t Ȳ t Ȳ t ( ) ( ) 1 τ 1 τ = log 1 λ k τ log 1 λ k τ

12 Intermediate good firms and corporate profits tax Value of an incumbent firm with productivity z, V t(z) = V t exp(z) 1 ρ 1 Entry condition: V t = (1 τ) µ 1 µ Yt + 1 V t+1 (1 δ Z ρ 1 t ct) 1 + R t Z ρ 1 t+1 1 (1 τλ e)p rt = 1 η e Z ρ 1 t V t+1 M t 1 + R t M t Z ρ 1 t+1 Innovation intensity i rt P rt Y rt i Y t, and labor allocation L rt = rt i rt (w.l.o.g Lt = 1) +(1 α)/µ Long-run change in user cost of intangible capital ( ) ( ) log ī r 1 τ 1 τ log īr = log log 1 λ eτ 1 λ eτ and given Y rt = A rtz φ 1 t L rt constant between BGPs: log Z t log Z t = 1 ( log L r log 1 φ L ) r

13 Transition Dynamics log Z t+1 log Z t = G(Y rt) Impact Elasticity log Z t+1 log Z t ḡ Z Θ ( log Y rt log Ȳr ) Θ G (Ȳr )Ȳr Combined with research good production function, Y rt = A rtz φ 1 t L rt: log Z t+1 log Z t+1 = t ( Γ k log Lrt log L ) r k=0 Γ 0 = Θ Γ k+1 = [1 Θ(1 φ)] Γ k log Y t log Ȳt = 1 ( log Z t log 1 α Z ) ( t + log L pt log L ) α ( p log R kt log 1 α R ) k Welfare

14 One-period reallocation of labor towards research

15 Impact Elasticity Increase in aggregate productivity above trend

16 Dynamics: Full Intertemporal Knowledge Spillovers Permanent increase in aggregate productivity above trend

17 Limited Intertemporal Knowledge Spillovers Aggregate productivity reverts back to its initial path

18 Bounding the Impact Elasticity Θ Θ = 1 exp(ḡ Z ) ρ 1 exp(g(0)) ρ 1 ḡ ρ 1 exp(ḡ Z ) ρ 1 z G(0) Impact elasticity ḡz G(0) x e/ȳr = contribution of entrants innovation to growth entrants share of innovative investment

19 Investments by incumbents and productivity growth Product-level innovation technologies imply tractable equilibrium aggregation: subject to log Z t+1 log Z t = G(x ct, x mt, x et) x ct + x mt + x et = Y rt Evolution of aggregate productivity details t+1 = [(1 δ ct) ζ(x ct) + η mh(x mt) + η Z ρ 1 t ex et] Z ρ 1 M t M t Product exit δ ct = δ 0 + δ mh(x mt) + δ ex et

20 Impact Elasticity Start from log Z t+1 log Z t = G(x ct, x mt, x et) where x ct + x mt + x et = Y rt Differentiating log Z t+1 log Z t ḡ Z Θ ( log Y rt log Ȳr ) Θ = dxc dy r Θ c + dxm dy r Θ m + dxe dy r Θ e where Θ i = G i ( x c, x m, x e)ȳr and dx c dy r + dxm dy r + dxe dy r = 1 Θ is now policy dependent

21 Intermediate good firms and corporate profits tax Value of incumbents: V t = (1 τ) µ 1 Yt (1 τλc) Prt (xct + xmt) µ + 1 V t+1 [(1 δ ct)ζ(x ct) + η Z ρ 1 t mh(x mt)] 1 + R t Z ρ 1 t+1 Entry condition: 1 (1 τλ e)p rt = 1 η e Z ρ 1 t V t+1 M t 1 + R t M t Z ρ 1 t+1 Interior equilibrium investment allocation, given Y rt (1 τλ c) (1 τλ e) ηe = ηmh (x mt) = (1 δ ct) ζ (x ct) Y rt = x ct + x mt + x et

22 Equal expensing for incumbents and entrants: λ e = λ c Policy affects Y rt but not mapping between Y rt and log(z t+1 ) log(z t) Formulas for dynamics in simple model go through If λ e = λ c < 1, τ equivalent to uniform subsidy to all innovative investments i r No business stealing: Θ = Θ e = Θ c = Θ m Business stealing: Θ e < Θ c. x e and x c, under regularity condition, Θ Θ e Θ e ḡz G( x c, x m, 0) x e/ȳr = contribution of entrants innovation to growth entrants share of innovative investment

23 Equal expensing for incumbents and entrants: λ e = λ c Policy affects Y rt but not mapping between Y rt and log(z t+1 ) log(z t) Formulas for dynamics in simple model go through If λ e = λ c < 1, τ equivalent to uniform subsidy to all innovative investments i r No business stealing: Θ = Θ e = Θ c = Θ m Business stealing: Θ e < Θ c. x e and x c, under regularity condition, Θ Θ e Θ e ḡz G( x c, x m, 0) x e/ȳr = contribution of entrants innovation to growth entrants share of innovative investment

24 Different expensing for incumbents and entrants Interior equilibrium investment allocation, given Y rt (1 τλ c) (1 τλ e) ηe = ηmh (x mt) = (1 δ ct) ζ (x ct) Y rt = x ct + x mt + x et log Z t+1 log Z t = G(x ct, x mt, x et) Policies affect mapping btw Y rt and log(z t+1 ) log(z t), but mapping time-invariant Transition dynamics around new BGP allocation of investment log Z t+1 log Z t+1 t k=0 Γ k [ log L rt k log L r ( log Ȳ r log Ȳr )] Γ 0 = Θ and Γ k+1 = [1 (1 φ)θ ] Γ k Long-run efficiency gains from reallocation of investments: log Ȳ r log Ȳr If λ c > λ e, then it is possible that Θ e > Θ c and Θ > Θ e, curvatures of h and ζ matter

25 Measurement Θ e (ḡ Z G( x c, x m, 0)) Ȳr x e 1 Contribution of Entrants to Growth with no business stealing = 1 employment share of entering firms ρ 1 estimates of ḡ Z G( x c, x m, 0) from GHK and Akcigit and Kerr (2016) 2 Share of entrants innovation expenditure in total innovation expenditure NIPA measures of innovation expenditures of incumbent firms impute investment in entry equal to value of entering firms Intertemporal Knowledge Spillovers φ φ = 0.96 endogenous growth φ = 1.6 Fernald and Jones (2014)

26 Measurement Θ e (ḡ Z G( x c, x m, 0)) Ȳr x e 1 Contribution of Entrants to Growth employment share of entering firms = = ρ 1 3 AK 2016 ḡz G( x c, x m,0) ḡ Z = = ḡ Z G( x c, x m, 0) = Share of entrants innovation expenditure in total innovation expenditure incumbent firms invest 6.1% of output in innovation imputed innovative investment of entering firms 3.1% of output Intertemporal Knowledge Spillovers φ φ = 0.96 endogenous growth φ = 1.6 Fernald and Jones (2014)

27 Measurement Implied parameter values 1 Impact elasticity of entrants, Θ e Θ e = no business stealing Θ e = AK Intertemporal Knowledge Spillovers φ φ = 0.96 endogenous growth φ = 1.6 Fernald and Jones (2014) 3 Ratio of growth rate to interest rate and physical capital share β = α = 0.25

28 Policy Experiment Unanticipated, permanent Corporate profit taxes τ = 0.38, τ = 0.26 (BF2018) λ k = 0.87 (K /Y = 2.12), λ k = 1 ( log K /Y = 0.08, BF2018) expensing of innovative investments: λ c = 1 and λ e = 0 Three cases: 1 innovation unchanged 2 only entry responds log ī r log īr = [ log ( 1 τ ) log (1 τ) ] div/ prof, 3 entry & incumbents respond Physical investment / output up by 1.4 percentage points Innovation intensity of the economy up by 0.8 (case 2) or 0.3 (case 3) p.p.

29 Aggregate productivity Log change 10 years Long run φ = 1.6 φ = 0.96 φ = 1.6 φ = Exogenous productivity Endogenous entry No business stealing With business stealing Endogenous entry and incumbents No business stealing With business stealing

30 Aggregate output Log change 10 years Long run φ = 1.6 φ = 0.96 φ = 1.6 φ = Exogenous productivity Endogenous entry No business stealing With business stealing Endogenous entry and incumbents No business stealing With business stealing

31 Welfare (equivalent variation) φ = 1.6 φ = Exogenous productivity Endogenous entry No business stealing With business stealing Endogenous entry and incumbents No business stealing With business stealing

32 Endogenous entry

33 Endogenous entry and incumbents

34 Endogenous entry

35 Endogenous entry and incumbents

36 Endogenous entry and incumbents

37 Summary How do consideration of the impact of corporate profits taxes on firms incentives to invest in innovation shape the model s predicted response of aggregate output? Ten-year horizon: response not very different (in absolute terms) compared to e.g. business cycle variation Long-run: can make a big difference, depending on: intertemporal knowledge spillovers is there too much or too little entry in the initial equilibrium (due to business stealing and ex-ante differential expensing)?

38 Investments by incumbents and productivity growth Product-level technologies: 1 New products by entrants, x etm t, fraction δ e stolen, E exp(z ) ρ 1 = η e Z ρ 1 t Mt 2 New products by incumbent firms, h(x mt)m t, δ m stolen, E exp(z ) ρ 1 = η m Z ρ 1 t Mt 3 Improvements of incumbents products, if continue, E exp(z ) ρ 1 = ζ(x ct) Z ρ 1 t Mt Total measure of products M t+1 = [(1 δ ct) + h(x mt) + x et] M t Evolution of aggregate productivity t+1 = [(1 δ ct) ζ(x ct) + η mh(x mt) + η Z ρ 1 t ex et] Z ρ 1 M t M t Product exit Back δ ct = δ 0 + δ mh(x mt) + δ ex et

39 Welfare Suppose undistorted physical capital Euler Consumption Equivalent Welfare log ξ (1 β) t=0 β t Ȳ [( log Z t log C Z ) ( t + (1 α) log L pt log L )] p β = exp(ḡ Y ) 1 + R Socially Optimal Research Intensity βθ ir = 1 β [1 (1 φ)θ] Back