Time Series Econometrics For the 21st Century

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1 Time Series Econometrics For the 21st Century by Bruce E. Hansen Department of Economics University of Wisconsin January 2017 Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

2 Overview Most U.S. undergraduate economic students do not pursue PhDs Many work for firms and government They see, work with, and analyze time-series data Time-series tools are useful for such work Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

3 Core Models Autoregressive (AR) y t = α + φ 1 y t φ p y t p + e t Regression Distributed Lag (DL) y t = α + δ 0 x t + e t y t = α + δ 0 x t + δ 1 x t δ q x t q + e t Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ADL) y t = α + φ 1 y t φ p y t p + δ 0 x t + δ 1 x t δ q x t q + e t Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

4 Core Insights for Core Time-Series Models 1 The coeffi cients can be estimated by OLS 2 The appropriate standard error (robust or HAC) is important 3 The AR model helps understand serial correlation. 4 The coeffi cients in the DL and ADL can be interpreted as multipliers. 5 Multipliers are structural under exogeneity 6 Lags may be selected by AIC, not testing. 7 Spurious regression 8 Parameter change. 9 Use ADL model for one-step-ahead point forecasts. 10 Point forecasts should be combined with interval forecasts. 11 Multi-step forecasts can use a multi-step ADL model 12 Multi-step point forecasts should be accompanied by fan charts. Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

5 Standard Errors Three methods popular for time-series Classical (homoskedastic) Robust (Heteroskedastic) HAC (Newey-West) Classical (old-fashioned) are not used in contemporary economics. Robust HAC Should only be taught as a stepping stone Appropriate for AR and ADL Inappropriate for non-dynamic regression or DL Important for regression or DL Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

6 Illustration Weekly retail gasoline and crude oil prices Three standard errors: old-fashioned, robust, and HAC (appropriate) gas t = (0.046) (0.046) (0.073) (0.011) (0.015) (0.021) oil t + ê t Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

7 t-statistics versus standard errors Always report coeffi cient estimates & standard errors Never coeffi cient estimates & t-statistics Standard errors convey degree of uncertainty always important t-statistics concern testing hypothesis of a zero coeffi cient rarely of key interest De-emphasize significance testing in favor of measurement and analysis Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

8 Autoregressive Models Useful for understanding dynamics Illustration: U.S. quarterly real GDP growth rates, post-war GDP t = 1.93 (0.32) (0.06) GDP t (0.06) GDP t (0.06) GDP t 3 + ê t Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

9 Illustration Weekly return on S&P 500 Useful to illustrate test of effi cient market hypothesis Also illustrates importance of correct (robust) standard errors, otherwise test will falsely reject. return t = 0.16 (0.04) (0.029) return t (0.025) return t 2 + ê t Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

10 Distributed Lag Models Useful for understanding multipliers Illustration: retail gasoline and crude oil prices gas t = (0.057) (0.016) oil t (0.012) oil t (0.011) oil t (0.013) oil t (0.010) oil t (0.011) oil t (0.012) oil t 6 Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

11 Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Models Phillips Curve: U.S. quarterly inflation and unemployment rate Inf t = 0.44 (0.42) 0.34 (0.11) Inf t (0.09) Inf t (0.11) (1.06) Inf t (0.07) UR t (1.03) Inf t (0.56) UR t (0.47) UR t 1 UR t 4 + ê t Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

12 Model Selection Economic theory does not inform about lag structure In practice, choice implies a bias-variance trade Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is a simple practical tool to compare models Testing (t and F) is appropriate for assessing economic hypotheses Testing is inappropriate for model selection Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

13 Spurious Regression Could be the single most important insight we can teach our students Spurious regressions are commonplace Teach students to recognize serial correlation and exercise caution when interpreting regressions Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

14 Illustration: Two Annual Series y 1t = 2.95 (0.52) (0.07) y 2t + ê t, R 2 = time y1 y2 Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

15 Spurious! Both series were generated as independent random walks Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

16 exchange rate participation rate Trump-Era Exchange Rate Theory Outsourcing causes displaced workers to be discouraged and leave labor force, and the production shift alters the exchange rate ExchangeRate t = 10.2 (0.56) LaborParticipation t R 2 = m1 1990m1 2000m1 2010m1 time Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) exchange Timerate Series Econometrics participation rate January / 22

17 How to Detect a Spurious Regression Dependent variable is highly serially correlated Simple regression (no lagged dependent variable) Solution: Include at least one lagged dependent variable Ex t = 1.43 (0.05) Ex t (0.08) Ex t (0.09) Ex t (0.05) Ex t (0.032) LaborParticipation t Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

18 Structural Change Example: U.S. Real GDP Growth Rates Mean Standard Deviation AR(1) Coeffi cient Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

19 Forecasting Using h-step ADL for multi-step point forecasts Example: Inflation given unemployment rates Estimates π t+h π t = α + φ 1 π t + + φ p π t p+1 + δ 1 UR t + + δ q UR t q+1. Point Forecasts π n+h = π n + α + φ 1 π n + + φ p π n p+1 + δ 1 UR n + + δ q UR n q+1 Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

20 Forecast Intervals Uncertainty should be emphasized Noise typically dominates signal Emphasis on forecasts intervals Simple normal approximation interval π n+h ± ŝ n+h z 1 α/2 ŝ n+h is the standard error of the forecast ŝ n+h ( n 1 n t=1 ê 2 t ) 1/2 Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

21 Fan Charts Multi-step forecasts are elegantly presented using fan charts Illustration: U.S. quarterly inflation using estimated Phillips curve 2013q1 2014q3 2016q1 2017q3 2019q1 time index Inflation Rate lower 80% forecast interval forecast upper 80% forecast interval Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

22 Conclusion Time-series should be part of econometrics curriculum Emphasis on core models used in applications Bruce Hansen (University of Wisconsin) Time Series Econometrics January / 22

Econ 423 Lecture Notes: Additional Topics in Time Series 1

Econ 423 Lecture Notes: Additional Topics in Time Series 1 John C. Chao April 25, 2017 1 These notes are based in large part on Chapter 16 of Stock and Watson (2011). They are for instructional purposes