The Effects of Trade Liberalization in Textiles and Clothing on the Greek Market for Cotton Yarn: A Multi-Market Analysis

Transcription

1 The Effets of Trae Liberalization in Textiles an Clothing on the Greek Market for Cotton Yarn: A Multi-Market Analsis Daakas Dimitrios Katraniis D. Stelios Contribute paper prepare for presentation at the International Assoiation of Agriultural Eonomists Conferene Gol Coast Australia August Copright 26 b Daakas Dimitrios an Katraniis D. Stelios. All rights reserve. eaers ma make verbatim opies of this oument for non-ommerial purposes b an means provie that this opright notie appears on all suh opies.

2 Daakas Dimitrios hd aniate Universit of Maeonia Tel.: Fax: Katraniis D.Stelios rofessor of the Eonomis Department Universit of Maeonia Tel.: Fax: Egnatia Street.O.Box Thessaloniki Greee The Effets of Trae Liberalization in Textiles an Clothing on the Greek Market for Cotton Yarn: A Multi-Market Analsis JEL: D6 F C Keors: Trae Multi-Market Welfare Contribute aper presente at the International Assoiation of Agriultural Eonomists (IAAE) Conferene 2-8 August 26 Queenslan Australia

3 . Introution The objetive of this paper is to analze the elfare effets of the Multifiber Agreement (MFA ) an the Agreement on Textiles an Clothing (ATC ) regime on the otton arn setor in Greee. We onsier otton arn as a final prout in a vertiall linke market setting onsisting of a) the otton see market (primar proution) b) the labor market for otton arn (intermeiate market) ) the otton lint market (intermeiate market) an ) the market of otton arn. Cotton see prouers suppl mills ith otton see here it is proesse an altere to otton lint. The otton lint is then use b otton arn prouers together ith labor as the to main inputs to otton arn proution. The prie linkages that exist in vertial markets a ompliations to the proess of measuring elfare effets. Changes in prie-poli in one market affet prouers of the other markets. To eal ith these ompliations e use a multi-market approah hih allos us to take into onsieration the simultaneous nature of the prie hanges. This approah has been use in the past b a number of researhers (Katraniis et. al. 25; Jeong et. al. 24; Brannlun an Kristrom 996) to examine elfare effets in a multi-market setting here to or more pries hange simultaneousl. In our stu e nee to examine the simultaneous hange in the pries of arn an the ost of labor. Changes in the pries of arn are a iret effet of the intervention regime for arn. In 974 a quota regime as institute b the initial MFA (in fore sine //974). The MFA provie rules for the imposition of quotas through bilateral agreements or unilateral ations. Sine then the MFA as extene several times after initiation b evelope ountries to over a larger number of We refer hereforth to the otton see market as the see market the market for otton lint as the otton market an the market for otton arn as the arn market.

4 prouts an ountries (978 MFA II; 982 MFA III; 986 MFA IV; 99 MFA IV extene). Quota impositions ere applie on imports from eveloping ountries hen surges of imports ourre (Franois et. al. 2). In 987 hen the oun of Urugua began the isussion for trae liberalization in Textiles an Clothing (T&C) as initiate. B the en of the Urugua oun the ATC (995) ame into fore. The ATC realize the iea of trae liberalization b requiring the graual elimination of an quota restritions hih ere still in plae from the MFA regime b the ear 25. Fort nine perent (49%) of quotas ere to be eliminate b 2/3/24 an the other 5% as of //25. The graual elimination of quotas exerte negative pressure on the inomes of prouers of arn ho no fae loer pries for their prout an a more ompetitive international market. Export levels erease an imports surge. At the same time ue to other international evelopments prouers ere also fae ith higher ost for labor input. We take into aount the simultaneous nature of these prie hanges an estimate the elfare effets on prouers an onsumers. We examine the perio of the MFA regime ( ) hen quotas ere in plae an the initial perio of the ATC regime (995-2) hen quotas ere being grauall eliminate. The elfare effets uring the ATC regime represent the graual move from the MFA quota regime to the free trae senario. The importane of this researh lies not onl in etermining the effet of trae liberalization on the Greek market of otton arn but also in outlining the methoologial approah of estimating prie-inue elfare effets in vertiall linke markets. This approah is espeiall useful for researhers in agriultural eonomis in hih interrelate markets are often enountere. 2

5 2. The Markets for Cotton Yarn an the Market for Labor The prie-poli settings in the markets for see otton an labor itate ho these markets are hanle in the moel. We briefl examine eah market to eue ho eah one ill affet prouers elfare in the arn market an ho it has to be appropriatel inlue in the theoretial an the mathematial moel. The proution of arn rests on the primar proution of see. rouers suppl mills ith see here it is eseee an altere to otton. In 98 hen Greee entere the EU the Common Market Organization (CMO) alle for efiien paments to see prouers. This resulte in signifiant inreases to proution. The inrease proution as absorbe in hole b otton prouers ho are obligate to purhase from farmers all the quantities of see the suppl. Thus after 98 the proution of otton surge as ell. The question arises if the surge in the proution of see an otton affete the elfare of prouers of arn. To anser this question e onsier Greee to be a small exporting ountr (the prie taker ase) for otton (Figure ). In the otton market there is no government intervention an omesti pries equal orl pries. rouers of otton are hoever obligate to purhase from farmers all the quantities of see the suppl at a preefine prie. Thus the suppl of otton is perfetl inelasti (Karagiannis et. al. s s 997). An inrease in the proution of otton ( q ) q ill be irete toars the export market (exports inrease b AB). This ill leave omesti eman (point A) an pries unaffete ( p = ) p. Αs pries of otton ill not hange an surge in proution ill leave onsumers of otton namel the prouers of arn in terms of hanges in their elfare ompletel unaffete (area ). 3

6 Figure. The market for Cotton Thus the inrease in the proution levels of see an otton after the aession to EU oul not have an effet on the arn setor. More generall an hange in prie- poli irete toar the see market ill not affet the elfare of prouers in the arn market as long as the small ountr assumption is vali. Next e look at the labor market. Greee is an importing ountr for laborers. Although in the past eae the immigrant population surge the ost of labor retaine a slightl inreasing tren leveling off after 995. Greee s labor osts stan at three times the respetive ost of labor in omparison to other major arn exporting ountries in the orl (8 highest-volume exporting ountries). The reent tren of inflo of immigrant orkers to Greee is expete to erease the ost of labor an benefit prouers. The above theoretial onsierations suggest that e have to simultaneous hanges in pries that ill affet prouers elfare if trae is to be liberalize. These are the erease in pries of arn an the inrease in pries of labor. In sum e 4

7 moel the hange in otton-arn prouers elfare resulting from the simultaneous hange in the prie of one of the inputs in an intermeiate market (prie of labor) ombine ith a hange in the prie of the final goo (prie of arn). 3. Methoolog To moel the effet of trae liberalization for T&C on otton arn prouers e start b efining to pries: a) pries observe in Greee as etermine b the intervention regime for arn sine the MFA as institute. We all these pries intervention pries (or initial pries). b) ries that prevail in orl markets or the pries that oul prevail in Greee in the ase of no intervention for T&C. We all these pries non-intervention pries (or final pries). The elfare effet of the intervention regime of the MFA is the geometri area uner the suppl urve efine beteen the intervention an the non-intervention pries. In other ors the effet of trae liberalization on prouers elfare is the hange in prouers surplus that as annuall transferre to them uring the MFA regime hih prouers ill have to forego if trae is liberalize. espetivel in the labor market e efine as intervention pries the pries of labor observe in Greee hereas the nonintervention pries are those pai to labor in the 8 highest-volume arn exporting ountries in the orl. To assess the statistial reliabilit of our elfare estimates e use bootstrapping tehniques. The importane of this proeure in agriultural eonomis has been stresse b Kling an Sexton (99) Jeong et. al. (2) Bullok et. al (22). Bootstrapping tehniques allo us to obtain onfiene intervals for our elfare estimates asserting reliabilit to our results. 5

8 4. Theoretial Frameork We start ith the representative otton arn prouer ho maximizes profits: s s max Π = p * q C = p j k l * q p * q () q s s * q j j j* q j j j j here s q is the suppl of otton arn (final goo) p is the prie of otton arn q an p are the erive eman for otton lint an the prie of otton lint respetivel; is the ost of labor q is the erive eman for labor j is the prie vetor of the rest of the inputs to proution for j=2 n q j is the erive eman for the respetive input in the proution of otton arn an i i the vetor of all the other fators an inputs assume to be onstant. From the maximization problem e eue that profits for prouers of arn ill be a funtion of the pries of arn the pries of otton the labor ost an the osts of the other inputs to proution. Thus profits ill be expresse b a profit funtion of the form: Π j (2) If e onsier a prie hange for labor otton an arn then the quasi-rents to the prouers of arn are equal to: 6

9 (3) Π Π = Π j j i i i here i= the initial pries (i.e. or the intervention pries ) an = the final pries (i.e. or the international pries or non-intervention pries). Equation 3 an be expresse ith the folloing line integral (Kaplan 993; JHS 982): Π + Π + Π + Π + Π Π = L j j j j j j j (4) here L is the path e follo epening on the sequene of the prie hanges. Given that prouers maximize profits the profit funtion is ontinuousl ifferentiable an path inepenent. Thus e an express it ith the sum of the folloing efinite integrals: Π + Π + Π + Π Π = k j j j j j j j s j j (5) From Hotelling s lemma an the Envelope Theorem: 7

10 Π = q s Π = q Π = q (6) We substitute equations 6 in equation 5. We also onsier that the fators an j j 2 are onstant so these terms are equal to zero. Furthermore the integral for otton lint integrates from to. Hoever as e argue earlier there is no intervention in this market an therefore orl pries equal omesti pries ( p = ) p p p. So this integral is also equal to zero. Consequentl the hange in elfare is equal to the sum of the folloing integrals: ( ) ( ) s Π= q p p q p p (7) Note that this is onl one of the paths that e an follo. Equation 7 tells us that the hange in elfare for prouers of otton arn is equal to to geometri areas i.e. first the area uner the suppl urve for otton arn given initial pries of labor ( ) = an seon the area belo the erive eman for labor given final pries of otton arn ( ) p =. Another possible path is that of equation 8: p s Π= q ( p p ) + q ( p p ) (8) here the sequene of prie hanges is no reverse. The area belo the eman urve is no estimate given p = p an the area belo the suppl urve is 8

11 estimate given =. The reason h these to paths proue the same elfare effet is beause seon ross erivatives ith respet to the pries in a profit q funtion have to be equal. This is also knon as Young s Theorem q = p s. Sine e kno that for a ell-behave profit funtion Young s Theorem ill alas hol the ifferential in the line integral of equation 4 ill alas be an exat ifferential. Therefore the line integral is going to be path inepenent (Kaplan 993). Therefore an path e follo ill proue the same elfare effets as long as the profit funtion is ell-behave. espetivel the hange in onsumers elfare is equal to area belo the eman for arn. CS = q p psubs i (9) Where p subs i is equal to the pries of all substitutes i =... m to arn onsumption an are other fators that affet onsumption of arn onsiere onstant in this moel. 5. Statistial Estimation Metho The estimation of the elfare effets requires the suppl funtion for arn the erive eman funtion for otton the erive eman funtion for labor an the erive eman funtion for arn. The equations e use are the folloing: 9

12 q s α Q + ε () s = + α t + α 2 t + α3 t + α 4 a q β + β + β + β Q + β + () = t 2 t 3 t 4 ε β q γ + γ + γ + γ Q + γ + (2) = t 2 t 3 t 4 ε γ q = t tex t snth t NC NS t t δ + δ + δ 2 + δ 3 + δ 4 + δ 5Q + ε δ (3) Q t Q t s here is the lagge proution of arn = the lagge eman for otton Q t = the lagge eman for labor in the arn market = the pries of tex t ( ) sntheti arn = the pries of textiles are the pries of non-otton nonsntheti arn an ε ε ε ε Ν σ. α β γ δ ε i NC NS t sntt As the error omponents are orrelate simultaneous estimation must be use. The use estimation metho as Seemingl Unrelate egressions (SU) ith restritions (IZEF). SU is appropriate hen in a sstem of equations none of the epenent variables shos up on the right han sie of the equations an the error omponents are orrelate (nik και ubinfel 98). Lagge eman an suppl variables enter our sstem of equations as explanator variables. In the eman equation habitual onsumption requires the use of past ear s eman as explanator variables. In the suppl equation e use past ear s Qi t j quantities supplie aoring to Nerlove (958). The folloing restritions are use so that the profit funtion is ell-efine: q s q = q q = an q q = s (4)

13 hih are equivalent to -α 2 =β γ 2 =β 4 an γ =-α 4. These restritions are neessar in empirial ork to assure that the elfare results from equations 7 an 8 are equal 2 (Iterate Zellner Effiient Estimation - IZEF). The ata for our statistial analsis ame from the Greek Ministr of Agriulture the Worl Cotton Statistis (ICAC 23) the Worl Textile Deman (ICAC 23) ICA an the Annual Statistis of the Greek Inustr. The CI inex (987=) as use as the numeraire ommoit an all measures ere transforme to metri. The orl pries for labor an the orl pries for otton arn i.e. the upper limits of the integrals in equations 8 an 9 are a eighte average estimate from the 8 largest volume-exporting ountries in the orl. All estimations ere mae in Greek rahmas an results ere onverte to US $. The Durbin-h metho as use to test for autoorrelation. In orer to give our estimations statistial properties non-parametri Bootstrap as use (Efron 979) hih allos our results to have a istribution ith mean an a stanar eviation. Our statistial sample inlue ata from 975 to 2 a total of 26 observations. The Bootstrap proeure establishe a ranom sample of 26 observations using our initial sample hile raing ith replaement. The ne sample ata as use to estimate the regressions. The results ere ollete onto a table that inlue the beta parameters ^ β as ell as the estimate for the elfare hange ^. This proeure as repeate n times reating a table ith n estimates of 2 In tehnial terms these restritions assure that the line integral of equation 4 is an exat ifferential equation hih is path inepenent. Although in theor an path e follo ill provie us ith the same elfare effets in eonometri ork e have to impose these restritions to assure that the profit funtion is ell behave.

14 the parameters ^ β an the elfare hange ^. In empirial researh e usuall onsier n= All estimations ere one in 987 Greek rahmas an the results ere onverte to 987 $ US. The SAS eonometri program as use. 6. egression esults an Welfare Analsis The egression esults are presente in Table. The sstem of equations explains 89% of the variabilit. In the equation for the suppl of arn all the oeffiients arr the expete signs an are signifiant. In the equation for the erive eman for labor e observe that the prie of otton lint exhibits an insignifiant oeffiient. The same hols for the prie of labor in the erive eman for lint. Changes in the prie of labor o not seem to affet the erive eman for lint an vie versa (isjoint). The remainers of the variables in these to equations arr the expete oeffiient an are signifiant. In the eman-for-arn equation the pries of textiles non-otton arns non-sntheti arns sho insignifiant oeffiients. Durbin-h tests i not sho an autoorrelation problems. None of the restritions ere statistiall signifiant hoever their use in this moel has a theoretial basis so e hoose to inlue them in the analsis. 2

15 Table. egression esults SU (IZEF). Variable Constant (rie of Cotton Lint) (rie of Cotton Yarn) W s (Cost of Labor) NC NS rie of nonotton non-sntheti arn sntheti rie of Sntheti arn textiles rie of Textiles Lag D (Lagge Deman of arn) Lag S (Lagge suppl of arn) Lag D (Lagge Deman for Lint) Lag W (Lagge Deman for Labor) Suppl of Yarn *** (4.86) -.67 *** (-3.9).53 *** (3.99) -.9 * (-.84).345 *** (2.85) (erive) Deman for Labor (in arn setor) 749 (.53).6 (.96).9 * (.84) -.8 ** (-2.9).688 *** (6.88) Mean ^2.89 Durbin-H (t-statisti of the lagge error term parameter in parenthesis) Sstem Degrees of Freeom W restrition () W restrition (2) W restrition (3).94 (.69).49 (.26) (.75) (-.99) (-.8) (erive) Deman for Lint (in arn setor) * (.67) -.7 ** (-2.7).66 *** (3.9).6 (.96).63 *** (7.43).45 (.4) The values in parenthesis are t-values *** signifiant at. level * signifiant at. level On estimation (erive) Deman for Yarn *** (-2.76) -.57 * (-.77) 5.86E-6 (.66) -8.8E-7 (-.9) -.7 (-.8).462 *** (2.64).9 (.29) Using equations 7 an 9 e estimate the hanges in prouers an onsumers surpluses for arn inue b the hanges in arn pries an the ost of labor input. The results an be seen in Table 2. 3

16 Table 2. Transfers to rouers an Consumers of otton arn b ear (mil 987 US $). Year ΡS CS Year ΡS CS On Estimations Aoring to the above results an for the perio uner onsieration transfers to arn prouers erease substantiall making Greek otton arn proution less viable in the international markets. Until 987 transfers remaine at relativel high levels exhibiting high volatilit (see Figure 2). Donar spikes are observe on the ates the MFAs ere signe. These spikes ere folloe b immeiate inreases in the transfers refleting poli attempts to support prouers inome. 4

17 Figure 2. Transfers to rouers of otton arn b ear (mil. 987 US $ ). On Estimations After 987 e observe a persistent onar tren in transfers to Greek prouers. 986 as the ear hen a further extension of MFA namel the MFA IV as signe. At the same time an in the ontext of the oun of Urugua eliberations began that aime to the elimination of all quotas for T&C. Both evelopments might have triggere hanges in proteting the relevant markets. In 99 (MFA IV Extene) the first offiial attempt as mae to eliminate the quota regime. Hoever it as not signe until 994. The thir extension of 993 ause transfers to rop to negative levels 3. B the ear 2 an after the eision for the graual elimination of all quotas transfers ere almost equal to zero. Aitionall hen e ontrast the pattern of hanges in prouers transfers to prouers on revenues (Figure 3) e see that on revenues exhibit a persistent onar tren after 987 (MFA IV) ropping eventuall to almost half the levels in the 8 s. Inome transfers beame grauall a lesser part of prouers revenues. It 3 Negative levels of transfers sho that prouers oul be better off in a free trae senario. 5

18 seems that together ith the ereasing transfers there ere aitional pressures onsizing prouers on revenues in the last eae. As transfers ere ereasing the inustr as beoming less ompetitive an feer numbers of prouers ere viable in the market. Figure 3. evenues an transfers to prouers of otton arn (mil. 987 $ US) Trnasfers evenues On estimations Finall e ontraste the losses to prouers elfare ith the gains to onsumers elfare in Figure 4. The top line in Figure 4 is the pattern of prouers surplus uring the MFA an the ATC regime. It represents gains to prouers elfare ue to the intervention regime. The bottom line is the onsumers surplus uring the MFA an the ATC regime. It represents losses to onsumers elfare ue to the same regime. The mile line represents the sum of both effets i.e. the sum of the hanges in prouers plus onsumers surplus. 6

19 Figure 4. Annual transfers to prouers an onsumers of otton arn (mil. 987 $ US) On Estimations After 987 the (negative) hanges in onsumers surplus exhibite an upar tren. This means that onsumers losses beame less hen ompare to the ears after the initial signing of the MFA. Therefore losses in prouers elfare ere somehat levele b the gains to onsumers. 7. Bootstrap Analsis To a statistial meaning to our previous results e use the bootstrap metho. Table 3 shos the bootstrappe mean annual inome transfers to prouers of otton arn using as separator ke ates the ears various MFAs ere resigne. 7

20 Aoring to the results presente on Table 3 transfers to prouers after the MFA as institute (974) i.e. for the perio reahe a three ear average of 85 mil. $ US (olumn 2 Table 3). With the signing of the MFA II this amount inrease to 49 mil $ US. After 982 e observe a persistent onar tren. During the MFA III mean annual transfers to prouers erease to 9 mil $ US. The onar tren ontinue after 987 (MFA IV) an transfers to prouers roppe to 94 mil. $ US. B the ear 2 transfers erease to 42 mil. $ US. Table 3. Transfers to the otton arn prouers (MFA ears). Bootstrappe results (mil. 987 $ US). Years Mean erio Inome Transfers MFA I α (2.43) MFA II (5.59) α The values in parenthesis is the stanar eviation MFA III 8.63 (2.9) MFA IV 93.6 (3.4) MFA IV Extene 54.8 (.6) ATC 4.82 (6.5) On Estimations Figure 5 presents these results ith Box-Whiskers plots. Box Whiskers plots allo us to visualize the entire istribution of a ranom variable. Eah plot provies us ith the orresponing 5% 25% 5% 75% an 95% quantiles of the bootstrap sample. The meian is represente ith a ross insie the box. 8

21 Figure 5. Box-Whiskers lots for MFA ears (mil. 987 $ US). On estimations The plot allos us to visualize a onar tren in mean annual inome transfers that prevaile in the last to eaes. Mean annual inome transfers erease after 982 b 3 mil. $ US. This represents a signifiant erease (t-statisti=-3.26) (olumn 3 Table 5) an implies that prouers note after the implementation of the MFA III a signifiant erease in their inomes. After 986 an the beginning of the negotiations for the liberalization of trae in the ontext of the Urugua oun mean annual transfers to prouers roppe b 25 mil. $ US (t-statisti =-2.652). The initiation of the isussions ha a profoun effet on Greek prouers. The same senario in terms of statistial signifiane an be seen hen e ompare the perio (MFA IV) to (MFA IVe). Transfers roppe b 38.8 mil. $ US an b 995 Greek arn prouers realize inomes 9

22 equale half those realize in the 8 s. The t-statisti omparing the mean annual transfers for these to sub-perios shos a value of After the signing of the ATC (995) transfers erease b another 3 mil. $ US hih also represents a signifiant reution in transfers to prouers (t-statisti=- 2.4). The signing of the ATC seeme to exerise further pressure on prouers inomes. The ATC iretives for alle for a 49% reution of existing quotas to be implemente b the en of the ear 25. The remaining 5% reution ha to be applie b Januar 25. Table 5. T-statisti for the ifferene in perio mean annual transfers to prouers of otton arn Years MFA II MFA III MFA IV MFA IV Extene Urugua MFA I -6.3 *** MFA II 3.26 *** MFA III ** MFA IV *** MFA IV. E -2.4 *** *** signifiant at. level * signifiant at. level On estimations The results suggest that prouers starte realizing loer levels of transfers after 982. Transfers reovere in 985 an 986 (see figure 2) hoever the initiation an the further progress in the negotiations of the Urugua oun seale the fate of the MFAs as earl as 987. Mean annual inome transfers erease after the MFA IV (986) after the MFA IV Extene (99) an after the singing of the ATC (995). B 992 most of the negotiate hanges to the MFA ere omplete an a ten-ear plan for the graual elimination of quotas as in plae. This means that our analsis supports that although the final agreement as signe in 995 the after- 2

23 effets of the Urugua oun ere alrea felt b prouers some ears earlier i.e. after 987. Finall e looke in a more etaile manner at the effets of EU entr on prouers elfare. Sine hanges in poli irete toar the see market are not expete to have an effet on arn prouers EU entr shoul not have effets on the pattern of imports protetion an aoringl to the transfers realize b arn prouers. To test this hpothesis e ompare transfers prior an after EU entr i.e an respetivel. Mean annual inome transfers in the perio prior 98 equale 2 mil. $ US (Table 6). After it the respetive transfers inrease to 26 mil. $ US. This represents hoever a non-signifiant inrease in the relevant amounts sine the alulate t-statisti equals.93. Table 6. T-statisti for the ifferene in perio mean annual transfers to prouers of otton arn After EU entr Years re-eu perio ost-eu perio Mean erio Inome Transfers 2.35 (3.5) α (3.) α The values in parenthesis is the stanar eviation On estimations These results support the argument that EU entr i not have an effet on prouer transfers. As e argue earlier EU poliies at least those relate to the agriultural setor annot influene arn prouers elfare as the markets for see an otton are isjoint. The pattern of import protetion applie in Greee after 98 in the arn setor i not signifiantl iffer from the one applie prior to EU entr. 2

24 8. Conlusions We examine the transfers to prouers of otton-arn in Greee using a multimarket setting that is appropriate hen vertiall or horizontall relate markets are onsiere. We evelope the moel for a small exporting ountr. The results shoe that transfers to Greek otton arn prouers signifiantl erease over the last to eaes. An interesting fining is that the Greek aession to the European Union (98) i not affet the magnitue of transfers to Greek arn prouers. This means that the pattern of import protetion in the arn setor i not hange beause of the entr. Our finings iniate that all the evelopments in poliinue hanges in prouer s elfare are to be attribute to the relevant regulations inlue in the MFA (974) as ell as in its further moifiations. All our results agree ith the expete effets from MFA regulations. Both prouers inomes an on revenues erease over the past ears making otton arn proution less ompetitive an exerting negative pressure on prouer s elfare. rouers starte realizing loer mean annual inome transfers as earl as 982. The beginning of the isussions of 986 in the ontext of the Urugua oun on trae liberalization signale a signifiant negative impat on prouer s elfare. Changes in the pattern of imports protetion hih ere eie ith the signing of MFA IV (986/7) affete negativel the transfers to arn prouers. After the signing of the ATC an the implementation of the plan for the graual elimination of quotas the reution in prouers transfers reahe the loest levels e observe in the perio e stu. To reah an efinitive onlusions though e oul have to look further to see ho transfers progresse until 25 hen all quotas ere eliminate. 22

25 Finall after 987 losses in prouers elfare ere partiall levele b the gains to onsumers. The latter realize prie ereases an signifiant inreases in their elfare. 9. eferenes Brannlun. Kristrom B.(996) Welfare Measurement in Single an Multimarket Moels: Theor an Appliation Amerian Journal of Agriultural Eonomis 78 Feb. pp Bullok D.S. Katraniis S.D. Nitsi E.I. (22) The eonomi effets of the EU heat poliies in Greee: a elfare analsis of horizontall linke markets Working paper Universit of Illinois Department of Agriultural an Consumer Eonomis. Efron B. Tibshirani.J. (993) An Introution to the Bootstrap Chapman an Hall Ne York. Franois J.F. Glismann H.H. Spinanger D. (2) The Cost of EU Trae rotetion in Textiles an Clothing Working aper no. 997 Kiel Institute of Worl Eonomis Kiel German August. GATT (984) Textiles an Clothing in the Worl Eonom Geneva Sitzerlan Jul. Greek Organization for Cotton (2) Cotton in Greee International Cotton Avisor Committee (23) The Outlook for Cotton Suppl in 23/4 Sep. Washington DC. International Cotton Avisor Committee (23) Worl Textile Deman Sep. Washington DC. International Cotton Avisor Committee (23) Worl Cotton Statistis Sep. Washington DC. Jeong K.S. Garia. Bullok D.S. (23) A Statistial Metho of Multi Market Welfare Analsis Applie to Japanese Beef oli Liberalization Journal of oli Moeling 25 pp Just.E. Hueth D.L. an Shmitz A. (982): Applie Welfare Eonomis an ubli oli rentie-hall Ne York. Kaplan W. (993) Avane Calulus 4 th Eition Aison-Wesle ublishing Compan eoo Cit CA. 23

26 Karagiannis G. Katraniis D. S. Velentzas K. (997) eistribution an CA Effiien in the Greek Cotton Inustr Inian Journal of Agriultural Eononomis vol. 52 no. 4 Ot.-De. Katraniis D.S. Bullok D.S. Nitsi E.I. (25) The Effets of EU Corn Cotton an Sugar Beef oliies on Greek rouers: A Multi-Market Analsis" Argriultural Eonomis vol. 33 p Katraniis S. Koras G. Velentzas K. (23) Welfare Analsis an Bootstrapping Applie Eonomi Letters Ma p v. is. 6. Kling C.S. an Sexton.J. (99) Bootstrapping in applie elfare analsis Amerian Journal of Agriultural Eonomis Nerlove M. (958) Estimates of the Elastiities of Suppl of Selete Agriultural Commoities Journal of Farm Eonomis 38 pp ink.s. ubinfel D.L. (98) Eonometri Moels an Eonomi Foreasts MGra-Hill Singapore. Tuke J.W. (977) Explanator Data Analsis Aison-Wesle ub. Co eaing MA. 24