Dynamic Prediction Method of Production Logistics Bottleneck Based on Bottleneck Index

Transcription

1 70 CHINESE JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING Vol. 22,aNo. 5,a2009 DOI: 0.390/CJME , avalable onlne a Dynamc Predcon Mehod of Producon Logscs Boleneck Based on Boleneck Index LIU Mngzhou*, TANG Juan, GE Maogen, JIANG Zengang, HU Jng, and LING Ln School of Mechancal and Auomove Engneerng, Hefe Unversy of Technology, Hefe , Chna Receved December 2, 2008; revsed July 2, 2009; acceed Augus 3, 2009; ublshed elecroncally Augus 4, 2009 Absrac: In modern manufacurng aern, here are many unceran facors n he modern manufacurng rocess, such as changes of roduc arbue, changes of manufacurng resources sae, and so on, whch cause roducon logscs boleneck freuenly shf, and make decsons of roducon lannng and conrol based on formed boleneck devaed from raccal roducon rocess. Consderng hese facors, resen researches manly aly aferwards conrol o omze roducon rocess o assvely ada o boleneck changes. If he drecon of boleneck shfng can be accuraely forecased, he ranson from aferwards conrol of chasng boleneck o beforehand conrol can be realzed. Therefore, amng a he henomenon of roducon logscs boleneck shfng under unceran manufacurng crcumsances, hs aer sars off wh dynamc roery of caably and reuremen and hen bulds he conces of boleneck degree and boleneck ndex o descrbe dynamc boleneck characersc of roducon un; aken roducon caably, roducon load and ualy assurance caably no consderaon, mahemacal model of boleneck ndex s esablshed o measure boleneck degree accuraely, conseuenly, uanave research on mechansm of roducon logscs shfng s acheved. Based on boleneck ndex, he redcon model of roducon logscs boleneck s founded o redc dynamc change of boleneck accuraely. Fnally, an examle of forecasng and monorng he roducon logscs boleneck n one manufacurng sho s gven o esfy he valdaon and raccably of he redcon mehod. Key words: roducon logscs, boleneck shfng, ualy assurance caably, boleneck ndex, redcon model Inroducon In modern mul-varey and small-lo manufacurng aern, varous unceran facors, such as changes of roduc arbue, changes of manufacurng resources sae, ec, make caably and reuremen of roducon un change real-mely, whch cause logscs boleneck freuenly shf n manufacurng sho, fnally, make decson of roducon lannng and conrol develoed by akng former boleneck as cenre devae from raccal roducon rocess. Amng a boleneck shfng, ROSER, e al [], and FAGET, e al [2], rovded a mehod for deecng bolenecks and shfng of hese bolenecks n manufacurng sysem based on he ndex of he duraon durng whch a machne s acve whou nerruon. CHEN, e al [3], used he average rocessng me as he ndcaor o denfy he boleneck. Refs. [4 6], develoe some daa drven boleneck deecon mehods based on he real-me daa from manufacurng; BABU, e al [7], ook he rao of lanned ouus o acual * Corresondng auhor. E-mal: LuMngZhou055@63.com Ths rojec s suored by Anhu Provncal Naural Scence Foundaon of Chna (Gran No ) ouus as a ndcaor o research he mehod of denfyng he sysem boleneck; PEGELS, e al [8], suded he means of dynamc denfcaon of he boleneck accordng o he level of manufacurng cell workng n rocess(wip), as well as he sarvaon and block sae of he usream and downsream uns as he boleneck characerscs; YE, e al [9 0], resened usng Q-GERT and smulaon echnue o forecas boleneck resources, and achevng he sac boleneck redcon by counng he maxmum sum of WIP of each lnk n he whole lan erod; Ref. [] rooses a mehod based on flow rao o forecas boleneck n he flow sho; MOSS, e al [2], made lnear regresson mehod o dscuss he boleneck shfng, verfed ha usng some arameers, such as workece arrval rae and rocessng me, ec, could redc boleneck shfng va smulaon mehod, and dscussed how o fx he locaon of boleneck relavely; LU, e al [3], classfed he robable causes whch led o boleneck shfng based on he defnon of boleneck shfng conce, and analyzed he relaonsh beween each cause and bolebneck shfng henomenon. The resuls of he researches show ha we can no reven and conrol he roducon logscs boleneck shfng under unceran manufacurng envronmen, because hey are manly based on aferwards conrol by chasng boleneck and sac redcon of boleneck. Therefore, hs aer sars off

2 CHINESE JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING 7 wh caably and reuremen of roducon un (ncludng ransorng un), hen rooses he conces of boleneck degree and boleneck ndex, esablshes he mahemacal model of boleneck ndex, and uses rocessng me, defec rae of roducs and rocess caably ndex o descrbe s key arameers. A las, esablshes dynamc redcon model based on boleneck ndex o forecas boleneck shfng accuraely whch can rovde scenfc bass and decson-makng suor for effecve conrol of roducon rocess. 2 Boleneck Degree and Boleneck Index The conce of boleneck s he foundaon of boleneck research. In he same roducon condons, dfferen defnons of boleneck may cause dfferen deecon mehods and resuls [3]. Therefore, sarng off wh he causes of boleneck, boleneck, man boleneck and secondary boleneck are defned resecvely. Defnon : Le f( T c, Q c ), f2 ( T d, Q d ) reresen caably and reuremen of roducon un, resecvely, f f( T c, Q c) < h f2( T d, Q d), hen s roducon logscs boleneck. Here, Tc, Qc, T d, Qd denoe roducon caacy, ualy caacy, roducon load and ualy reuremen, resecvely; h s he correlaon coeffcen of sysem sably. Defnon 2: Le S j (, 2,, n) be he se of sysem boleneck, f j has he greaes nfluence on sysem s effecve hroughu, and hen j s he man boleneck. When man boleneck s elmnaed, he boleneck whch s mos lkely o become man boleneck s he secondary boleneck. Varous unceran facors n he roducon sysem cause connuous changes of caably and reuremen of roducon un over me. Therefore, s ossble for every roducon un o become sysem boleneck n some erod. In order o descrbe he dynamc boleneck characersc of roducon un, he conce of boleneck degree s nroduced. Defnon 3: Boleneck degree s defned as he ably of roducon un o become boleneck under common nfluence of exernal envronmen (for examle, roduc reuremens, raw maerals suly, ec) and nernal facors (for examle, oeraon machnes, oeraors, ec). Boleneck degree s he embodmen of balance beween nernal caables and exernal reuremens of roducon un under common nfluence of varous facors such as machnes, oeraors, maerals, craf mehods, roducon envronmen of sho, exernal marke demands, and so on. I s an mmanen dynamc characersc of roducon un, whch can no be descrbed whou consderng acual roducon rocess. Qualave descron of boleneck degree can no rovde bass for effecve conrol of roducon rocess. Therefore, seng ou from he essenal reasons of boleneck shfng, based on demands of vercal and horzonal analyss of boleneck degree, hs aer rooses a osve and nondmensonal ndex boleneck ndex I BN o descrbe he value of boleneck degree. 3 Mahemacal Descron of Boleneck Index 3. Esablsh mahemacal model of boleneck ndex In he roducon rocess, he greaer roducon caacy s and he fewer roducon ask s, he smaller boleneck degree s, and vce versa. Accordng o hs characersc, rocess caacy and rocess reuremen are used as arameers o buld he mahemacal model of boleneck ndex, where rocess caacy ncludes roducon caacy (he number of ouu) and ualy caacy, and rocess reuremen ncludes roducon load (he number of ask) and ualy reuremen. Consderng dfferences among rocessng me of dfferen rocessng oeraon, roducon caacy and roducon load are measured usng me; as for dfferen ualy characerscs, s reasonable o use non-dmensonal ndex for exresson of ualy caacy and ualy reuremen. Conseuenly, he mahemacal model of boleneck ndex could be bul as follows: I = w f ( ) + w G( ), (a) BN ac ì l ï f ( ) =, í c ï îc = T - F ( ). (b) Where w, w Influence wegh of roduc uany and roduc ualy on boleneck degree, resecvely, w + w = ; c, l Producon caacy and roducon load, resecvely; G( ac ) Influence funcon of ualy assurance caably ( ac ) on boleneck degree, ac s comrehensve reflecon of ualy caacy and ualy reuremen; T Assumed avalable rocessng me of ; F () Varable uany of s roducon caacy caused by changes of acual roducon condons. In E. (), he voal and uneasy-calculang arameers are roducon load l and nfluence funcon G( ac ) of ualy assurance caably on boleneck degree. 3.2 Producon load and nfluence funcon of ualy assurance caably 3.2. Producon load The calculaon of l should nclude all asks n he seleced erod, bu o rocessng un, sar me and fnsh me of ask are no necessarly ncluded n he seleced erod comleely. Whle calculang he roducon load, we need o consder how o descrbe non-comlee rocessng asks n he seleced erod. The roosed robablsc model of search sace [4] makes calculaon of all roducon load n

3 72 YLIU Mngzhou, e al: Dynamc Predcon Mehod of Producon Logscs Boleneck Based on Boleneck IndexY he seleced erod ossble. Thereno, he comlee rocessng ask means ha he earles sar me and he laes fnsh me of he ask are boh n he seleced erod; non-comlee rocessng ask means ha eher he earles sar me or he laes fnsh me of he ask s n he seleced erod, namely, he earles sar me s before he seleced erod and he laes fnsh me s afer he seleced erod. Le l j denoe he roducon load whch s mosed o un by he ask j n he seleced erod [0, T], 0 denoes he curren me; he calculaon rocess of l s as follows. Se : Deermne he mlemenaon of he schedulng scheme. If he schedulng scheme s n he nal sae (ha s, all he jobs are no scheduled, and are wang o be scheduled), accordng o he release me and delvery me of ars, he earles sar me es, he earles fnsh me ef, he laes sar me ls and he laes fnsh me lf of varous jobs are deermned; f he schedulng scheme s beng mlemened, accordng o acual suaon, he sar me wndow and he fnsh me wndow of all schedulng jobs wll be runed and flered by usng he dynamc consran ransmsson [4]. Se 2: Idenfy me nerval [ esj, lfj ], and comare wh [0, T], so as o deermne wheher he rocessng ask s comlee or no. he secfc analyss s as follows: () If lfj <0 or esj >T, s no he ask n he seleced erod, so can be no calculaed; (2) If [ esj, lfj ] [0, T] or [ esj, lfj ]=[0, T], s a comlee ask; (3) If [ esj, lfj ] [0, T] Æ and [ esj, lfj ] [0, T] [ esj, lfj ], s a non-comlee ask; Se 3: l j s deermned by un reamen me uj (ncludng rocessng me, lay me, cleanng me and ransorng me), rocessng number j and rearaon me j of j. f j s comlee, l j = j uj + j ; f j s non-comlee, l j should be calculaed accordng o j s sae: () When j s schedulng, he sar me sj s denfed, f 0< sj <T and sj + uj j + j <T, l j = uj j + j ; f 0< sj <T and sj + uj j + j >T, l j =T sj ; (2) When j has no been scheduled, sj has no been denfed, hen go o se 4. Se 4: Accordng o sar me wndow of j, calculae oeraon sar robably o j () of j on, hen use o j () as arameer o bul he mahemacal model of l j, he model s as follows: l j ì oj ( ) ( juj + j ), + j uj + j T ï0< < T = í ï oj ( ) ( T - ). + j uj > T ï î 0< < T Se 5: Calculae he roducon load l, l = lj + jîtk L ( ), TK s he ask collecon of, L () denoes he varable uany of s roducon load caused by all facors. For ransorng un, because he jobs are ransored by (2) bach, he calculaon of l s no as comlex as rocessng un. The formula of ransorng un l s as follows: N l = ( + ) + L ( ). (3) j uj j j = Where N Number of roduc caegores ransored by ransorng un, j Number of roduc j ransored by, uj Tme of roduc j ransored by, L () Varable uany of s roducon load caused by all facors Influence funcon Qualy assurance caably of rocess s he ably o make flucuaon of roduc ualy characerscs as small as ossble and roduc funcon as robus as ossble under he remse of ensurng roduc ualfed. In hs aer, defec rae s used o denoe rocess ably whch ensures roduc ualfed, dserson s and cenralzed degree u of ualy characersc are used o descrbe rocess ably whch ensures roduc funcon robus, herefore, nfluence funcon of ualy assurance caably on boleneck degree can be dvded no wo ars: f ( ) and f s ( s, m ). () Influence funcon of defec rae f ( ). The nfluence of defec rae on boleneck degree mosly reflecs n he followng wo asecs: a) he avalable rocessng me of roducon un s consumed by rearng defecve roducs; b) roducon load has ncreased a dfferen degree resuled from ulmae scra of roducs. So, me s used as he arameer o esablsh funcon f ( ) = K( ) o measure he mac of defec rae on boleneck degree. f ( ) of rocessng un s as follows: where N j j uj f ( ) = K( ) =, N T - F ( ) - D ( ) j (4) j Defecve ndex of roduc j rocessed on roducon un, T Assumed avalable rocessng me of, D ( ) Reured me of unualfed roduc j f j reared on roducon un. ( ) of ransorng un s as follows: N j j uj ( ) = ( ) =, T - F ( ) f K b where b j Damage rae of roduc j ransored by, F ( ) Varable uany of s avalable me caused by varous facors such as oor logscs, and so on. (5)

4 CHINESE JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING 73 Because f() and f ( ) are boh bul based on me, hey can be combned, hen E. () can be modfed as follows: IBN = w ( f ( ) + f ( )) + w f s ( s, m). (6) (2) Influence funcon of assurance caably on roduc ualy sably f s ( s, m ). Parameers referred n assurance caably on roduc ualy sably nclude lower secfcaon lm L SL, uer secfcaon lm U SL, secfcaon lm S L, rocess average u and rocess varances. Transorng un only changes job s locaon, no he shae, so only he assurance caably on roduc ualy sably of rocessng un s dscussed, and s nfluence funcon on boleneck degree s deermned furher. I s ossble o make use of rocess caably ndex o descrbe he assurance caably on roduc ualy sably because some modfed rocess caably ndces are u forward. Le rocessng un rocess roduc j, m ualy characerscs are needed o monor, hen, rocess caably j ndex Ck should be calculaed accordng o he sze of m [4]. The evaluaon sandard of rocess caably ndex vares when rocessng un rocesses dfferen roducs. Conseuenly, s necessary o choose reresenave evaluaon sandard of rocess caably ndex whch s as benchmark of unfed ransformaon, so as o acheve calculaon of comrehensve rocess caably ndex. The ransformed rocess s as follows. Se : Selec ransformed sandard. Se 2: Judge he level of rocess caably ndex j C k whch needs ransformng, denfy he level s uer lm U' and lower lm L', hen fnd he same level s uer lm U and lower lm L n ransformed sandard. j j Se 3: Accordng o euaon C = C ( U / U ) or j j C = C ( L/ L ), calculae new rocess caably ndex k k j C k whch has been ransformed. Le C,, C j,, C n resecvely reresen rocess k k k caably ndex of n knds of roducs whch are rocessed on rocessng un, afer ransformaon, he values are j n C,, C,, C, resecvely, hen, k k k v C 2 2 n k n k k k C k = v C v C, where v n s se accordng o he morance of varous roducs, and v + v2 + + v n =. The hgher rocess caably ndex s, he hgher assurance caably on roduc ualy sably s and he less nfluence on boleneck degree s. So he wegh of assurance caably on roduc ualy sably w s smaller corresondngly. Bu, consderng economy of ualy, enerrse would se roer evaluaon sandard o combne s acual suaon and cusomers demands. Table shows nfluence funcon f s ( s, m) and nfluence wegh w of assurance caably on roduc ualy sably on boleneck k degree, where can be se accordng o exerence, and Î (0,). Table. Seng of Range of C Level Ck k f s Process caably evaluaon > a Ⅰ Too hgh 2 C k a a < Ⅱ Suffcen a 3 C k a2 ( s, m) and w f s ( s, m ) w 0 0 < Ⅲ Acceable ( 0, ] 4 C k a3 a < Ⅳ Low Ck 4 a 3 C k (,] < a Ⅴ Overly low Wh Es. (3) (6), he secfc mahemacal model of boleneck ndex can be descrbed as follows. Processng un s exressed as æ N ç j j u j l s IBN = w ç + + w f ( s, m). (7) ç T -F ( ) T -F ( ) -D j ( ) ç è ø Transorng un s exressed as I BN = N é ëj ( + bj ) uj + F ù j û + L ( ). T - F ( ) 4 Predcon Model of Producon Logscs Boleneck Based on Boleneck Index Accordng o boleneck defnon and characersc of boleneck degree, redcon model abou roducon logscs boleneck s bul on he bass of boleneck ndex o acheve dynamc redcon of boleneck. The secfc model s as follows: Where S BN { BN c, }, { c } ì ïsbn = I ³ ÎS í ïî SnBN = 0 < IBN <, ÎS. ö (8) (9), S nbn Boleneck se and non-boleneck se a me, resecvely, S Producon un se of roducon sysem, c Judgmen sandard, andu c, u s se accordng o sably of roducon sysem, generally, and u should no be oo small o reven msjudgng non-boleneck as boleneck, neher oo large o avod leakng boleneck. Leg be he number of elemens n S BN, a s he evaluaon

5 74 YLIU Mngzhou, e al: Dynamc Predcon Mehod of Producon Logscs Boleneck Based on Boleneck IndexY sandard whch s used o judge wheher he nonbolenecks should be ad grea aenon o, he value s se accordng o changes of roducon condons, and 0< a< u, = max {, Î }, IBN j { IBN j SBN j } { IBN eîsnbn } I I S BN BN BN = max, Î, ¹, I BNe= max,. Accordng o E. (9), he conclusons whch can be made are as follows: () If g = 0, denoes ha here s no boleneck n he sysem a me ; a he same me, f I BNe >a, mles ha non-boleneck e may be boleneck n he nex momen, so should be ad more aenon o. (2) If g =, denoes here s boleneck n he n sysem a me, and Î S ; BN smulaneously, f I BNe >a, means ha boleneck and non-boleneck e should be boh ad more aenon o. (3) If g >, denoes here are several bolenecks a me ; a hs momen, man boleneck and secondary boleneck should be judged n lgh of he value of I BN. Is secfc judgmen rule s as follows: he boleneck wh maxmal I BN s man boleneck, and he boleneck wh I BN whch s smaller han maxmal I BN bu bgger han ohers s secondary boleneck, so can be known ha s man boleneck, and j s secondary boleneck. 5 Verfcaon on he Predcon Mehod Ths secon wll descrbe an examle of a sho where fve roducs A, B, C, D, E are rocessed on fve machnes M (=, 2,, 5) o forecas logscs boleneck n a roducon day. Assume he enerrse uses general ndusral sandard as evaluaon sandard of rocess caably, and he number of ransor eumens are suffcen, ha s, here s no ransoraon boleneck. Table 2 shows he number of roducs rocessed n he day (ncludng roduc caegores and uanes n urgen orders) and he unceran me of rocessng un roduc (ncludng rocessng me, lay me, cleanng me and ransorng me), he daa n round brackes resecvely shows he ossble smalles and larges rocessng me, he daa n suare brackes means rocessng me of un roduc rocessed on every machne. Table 3 shows he ualy assurance caably abou wha machnes rocess roducs. Where C denoes rocess caably ndex ransformed n lgh o general ndusral sandard; shows defecve ndex of roducs. We assume ha unualfed roducs are reared n manenance area. Table 2. Produc rocessng me Produc-name Produc-amoun Produc rocessng me /mn M M 2 M 3 M 4 M 5 A 25 ( )[6.0] ( )[4.8] ( )[4.3] (2.3 4.)[3.5] B 30 ( )[4.2] ( )[4.0] ( )[5.0] (3.2 4.)[3.2] C 5 (2. 3.3)[2.8] (2. 3.3)[2.8] ( )[5.] ( )[6.6] D 20 ( )[5.3] (3.6 5.)[4.5] ( )[4.4] ( )[5.0] E 25 (4.8 7.)[4.8] ( )[5.0] ( )[7.4] ( )[6.0] Table 3. Qualy assurance caably of machnes Produc-name M M 2 M 3 M 4 M 5 C C C C C A B C D E Le ulzaon raes of every machne are 0.95, 0.89, 0.9, 0.87, and 0.94, resecvely. W s he nfluence wegh marx of rocess caably ndex rocessng every roduc on comrehensve rocess caacy ndex of machne, whch s M M M M M Aæ ö ç B ç W = C ç ç Dç E ç è ø Therefore, he comrehensve rocess caably ndces of every machne rocessng above fve knds of roducs are.084, 0.938,.022,.38, and 0.970, resecvely. Machnes ω are deermned n lgh of evaluaon sandard of rocess caably ndex, whch are 0.3, 0.60, 0.40, 0.8, and Accordng o E. (7), I BN of every machne can be calculaed; he resuls are shown n Table 4. Table 4. Resuls of roducon un I BN Machne ml/mc ω f s ( s, m) ω I BN M M M M M Assume roducon flucuaons n he sho are small, boleneck judgmen sandard c =. Conseuenly, accordng

6 CHINESE JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING 75 o E. (9), can be known ha here are four bolenecks n he sho whch are M 2, M 3, M 4 and M 5, resecvely. Accordng o judgmen rule of man boleneck and secondary boleneck, M 5 s man boleneck and M 3 s secondary boleneck. In order o esfy he mehod s accuracy, machnes acve erods are measured o realze real-me deecon of boleneck [5]. The fgure of boleneck shfng s drawn accordng o sascal daa. Fg. shows he reflecon of acual roducon rocess. Fg. Boleneck shfng Accordng o Fg., he ercenage of me every machne as he sole boleneck machne and he ercenage of me every machne as he shfng boleneck are measured for one roducon day. Boleneck s deeced real-mely on he bass of hese ercenages; resuls are shown n Table 5. In Table 5, for each machne, he ercenage of me as he sole boleneck machne (w ) and he shfng boleneck machne (w 2 ) are gven n column wo and hree; he sum of he sole and shfng boleneck ercenages (w s ) s gven n column four. Table 5. Resuls of boleneck real-me deecon Machne w /% w 2/% w s/% Is a boleneck M M M Man boleneck M M Secondary boleneck The resuls shown n Table 5 ndcae ha he roosed mehod can accuraely forecas man boleneck and secondary boleneck of he logscs sysem. 6 Conclusons () Ths aer accuraely bulds he conces and descron mehod of boleneck degree and boleneck ndex, hen reveals essenal reasons ha cause henomenon of roducon logscs boleneck shfng and acheves uanave descron of boleneck sfng s mechansm. All hese resuls rovde heorecal bass and mehod suors for redcon mehod research of boleneck shfng. (2) Dynamc redcon of mul-bolenecks n unceran manufacurng crcumsance s acheved by he dynamc redcon model of roducon logscs boleneck based on boleneck ndex, whch rovdes bass for reasonable lannng and effecve conrol of roducon rocess. References [] ROSER C, NAKANO M, TANAKA M. Shfng boleneck deecon [C]//Proceedngs of he 2002 Wner Smulaon Conference, San Dego, Chle, December 7 0, 2002: [2] FAGET P, ERIKSSON U, HERRMANA F. Alng dscree even smulaon and an auomaed boleneck analyss as an ad o deec runnng roducon consrans[c]//proceedng of he 2005 Wner Smulaon Conference, Orlando, USA, December 4 7, 2005: [3] CHEN Chun-Lung, CHEN Chuen-Lung. A heursc mehod for a flexble flow lne wh unrelaed arallel machnes roblem[c]// 2006 IEEE Conference on Robocs, Auomaon and Mecharoncs, Chcago, USA, December 4, 2006: 4. [4] LI L, CHENG Ye, YUAN Shouhua. Research on rory schedulng algorhm based on boleneck analyss[j]. Comuer Inegraed Manufacurng Sysems, 2005, 2(): (n Chnese) [5] LI Ln, CHANG Qng, NI Jun, e al. Boleneck deecon of manufacurng sysems usng daa drven mehod[c]//proceedngs of he 2007 IEEE Inernaonal Symosum on Assembly and Manufacurng, Mchgan, USA, July 22 25, 2007: [6] SHI Wenwu, YAN HonSen. Mehod of shfng boleneck analyss n knowledge-orened manufacurng sysem[j]. Comuer Inegraed Manufacurng Sysems, 2006, 2(2): (n Chnese) [7] BABU T Ramesh, RAO K S P, MAHESHWARAN C Uma. Alcaon of TOC embedded ILP for ncreasng hroughu of roducon lnes[j]. Inernaonal Journal of Manufacurng Technology and Managemen, 2007: [8] PEGELS C Carl, WATROUS Crag. Alcaon of he heory of consrans o a boleneck oeraon n a manufacurng lan[j]. Journal of Manufacurng Technology Managemen, 2005, 6(3): [9] YE Taofeng, HAN Wenmn. Mehod of smulaon on deermnng boleneck resource[j]. Journal of Eas Chna Shbuldng Insue (Naural Scence Edon), 2003, 7(4): (n Chnese) [0] YE Taofeng, HAN Wenmn. A mehod on deermnng boleneck n make-o-order roducon[j]. Indusral Engneerng and Managemen, 2003, 6: (n Chnese) [] ACERO-DOMÍNQUEZ M J, PATERNINA-ARBOLEDA C D. Schedulng jobs on a K-sage flexble flow sho usng a TOC-based (boleneck) rocedure[c]//proceedng of he 2004 Sysems and Informaon Engneerng Desgn Symosum, Charloesvlle, VA, Canada, Arl 6 6, 2004: [2] MOSS H K, YU W B. Toward he esmaon of boleneck shfness n a manufacurng oeraon[j]. Producon and Invenory Managemen Journal, 999, 40(2): [3] LU Jansha, SHEN Maomao, LAN Xuju. Sudy of he shfng roducon boleneck: ossble causes and soluons[c]//servce Oeraons and Logscs, and Informacs, 2006.SOLI '06. IEEE Inernaonal Conference on, Shangha, Chna, June 2 23, 2006: [4] YANG Hong an, SUN Shudong, WANG Sunxn, e al. A job-sho schedulng algorhm based on consran sasfacon roblem[j]. Sysem Engneerng, 2004, 22(): 5 8. (n Chnese) [5] MA Yzhong, LI Yanjun. An assessmen mehod for mulvarae rocess caably[j]. Sysem Engneerng, 2002, 20 (): (n Chnese) Bograhcal noes LIU Mngzhou, male, born n 968, s currenly a rofessor and a PhD canddae suervsor n School of Mechancal and Auomove Engneerng, Hefe Unversy of Technology, Chna. Hs man research neress nclude monorng and conrol of manufacurng rocess, modelng and smulaon of manufacurng sysem, CIMS,

7 76 YLIU Mngzhou, e al: Dynamc Predcon Mehod of Producon Logscs Boleneck Based on Boleneck IndexY and so on. Tel: ; E-mal: LuMngZhou055@63.com TANG Juan, female, born n 985, s currenly a maser canddae n School of Mechancal and Auomove Engneerng, Hefe Unversy of Technology, Chna. E-mal: cerulean.j@63.com GE Maogen, male, born n 979, s currenly a lecurer n School of Mechancal and Auomove Engneerng, Hefe Unversy of Technology, Chna. Hs research neress nclude mechancal manufacurng and auomaon, and so on. E-mal: gmg320@63.com JIANG Zengang, male, born n 979, s currenly a lecurer n School of Mechancal and Auomove Engneerng, Hefe Unversy of Technology, Chna. Hs research neress nclude CIMS, dgzed managemen, and so on. E-mal: jz_hue@63.com HU Jng, female, born n 976, s currenly a lecurer n School of Mechancal and Auomove Engneerng, Hefe Unversy of Technology, Chna. Her research neress nclude human facors engneerng, and so on. E-mal: hj055@63.com LING Ln, female, born n 987, s currenly a bachelor canddae n School of Mechancal and Auomove Engneerng, Hefe Unversy of Technology, Chna. E-mal: lngln8787@26.com