Introduction: What one must do to analyze any model Prove the positivity and boundedness of the solutions Determine the disease free equilibrium

Transcription

1 Introduction: What one must do to analyze any model Prove the positivity and boundedness of the solutions Determine the disease free equilibrium point and the model reproduction number Prove the stability of the disease free equilibrium Prove the persistence of solutions Prove the stability of the endemic equilibrium point Simulate the model

2 Model Variables and parameters S(t) V(t) I(t) R(t) B(t) Susceptible population Vaccinated population Infected individuals Recovered individuals - recovery with immunity Cholera bacteria

3 The models are based on a paper by X. Zhou and J. Cui Model 1: Recovery with immunity ds dv di dr db = (1 ρ) A βs(t)b(t)+bv(t) θs(t) µ 1 S(t) = ρa+θs(t) bv(t) µ 1 V(t) = βs(t)b(t) (d + α+µ 1 ) = αi(t) µ 1 R(t) = γb(t)+ηi(t)

4 Recovery without immunity Model 2: Recovery without immunity ds dv di db = (1 ρ) A βs(t)b(t)+bv(t) θs(t) µ 1 S(t)+αI(t) = ρa+θs(t) bv(t) µ 1 V(t) = βs(t)b(t) (d + α+µ 1 ) = γb(t)+ηi(t)

5 Change of force of infection Models 1 and 2 assume a mass action force of infection. The assumption is that every one who is in contact with the bacteria is infected in reality some people do not catch the disease and so a more appropriate force of infection is λ = βs(t)b(t) N(t) where N(t) = S(t)+V(t)+I(t)+R(t) for Model 1 or N(t) = S(t)+V(t)+I for Model 2

6 Positivity and boundedness of solutions of Model 1 Theorem: Given S(0) 0, V(0) 0, I(0) 0, B(0) 0, the solutions (S(t), V(t), I(t), B(t)) of Model 1 are positively invariant for all t > 0. Let t 1 = sup(t > 0 S > 0, V > 0, I > 0, B > 0). From the first equation ds = (1 ρ) A (βb(t)+θ + µ 1 ) S(t) The integrating factor is ( t ) exp βb(s)ds +(θ+µ 1 ) t 0

7 Multiplying the inequality above by the integrating factor, we obtain [ S(t) exp { t 0 βb(s)ds +(θ+µ 1) t }] ( t ) (1 ρ) A exp βb(s)ds +(θ + µ 1 ) t 0 Solving this inequality we obtain t 0 { t S(t) exp 0 (1 ρ) A exp{ } βb(s)ds +(θ + µ 1 ) t ν 0 S(0) βb(q)dq +(θ+µ 1 ) ν}dν

8 Therefore { t } S(t) S(0) exp βb(q)dq +(µ 1 + θ) t 0 { t } + exp βb(q)dq +(µ 1 + θ) t 0 t ν (1 ρ) A exp{ βb(q)dq (θ+µ 1 ) ν}dν > 0 Similarly, it can be shown that (V(t) > 0, I(t) > 0, B(t) > 0).

9 Boundedness of the solution Theorem: All solutions (S(t), V(t), I(t), B(t)) of Model 1 are bounded. Proof: Model 1 is split into two, the human population and the pathogen population From the first three populations (human populations0, we obtain ( ) d (S + V + I) = A µ 1 (S + V + I) (d + α) I A µ 1 (S + V + I) Then lim t sup(s + V + I) A µ 1

10 From the first three equations, we obtain ds(t) (1 ρ) A (S + V + I)+b ( ) A S µ 1 Hence S(t) A(b +(1 ρ) µ 1) µ 1 (µ 1 + b + θ)

11 It is easy to show that V(t) For the bacteria we have ( ) A(θ+ρµ1 ) µ 1 (µ 1 + b + θ) db(t) ηa µ 1 µ 2 B(t) Hence ( ) ηa B(t) µ1µ 2

12 All solutions of Model 1 are bounded. The feasible region for the human population is ( ) A Ω H = (S, V, I) S + V + I, 0 S S(t) µ 1 ( ) A(b +(1 ρ) µ1 ), 0 µ 1 (µ 1 + b + θ) ( ) A(θ+ρµ1 ) V, I 0, µ 1 (µ 1 + b + θ) The feasible region for the pathogen population for Model 1 is ( ( )) ηa Ω B = B 0 B µ1µ 2

13 Define Ω = Ω H Ω B. Let IntΩ denote the interior of Ω. The region Ω is a positively invariant region with respect to the Model 1. Hence the Model 1 is mathematically and epidemiologically well possed in Ω.

14 The reproduction number Model 1 has a disease free equilibrium given by (S 0, V 0, 0, 0) = ( ) A(b +(1 ρ) µ1 ) µ 1 (µ 1 + b + θ), A(θ+ρµ 1 ) µ 1 (µ 1 + b + θ), 0, 0

15 The Model 1 can be written as where dx = F ν, F = βsb 0 0

16 and ν = (d + α+µ 1 ) I ηi + µ 2 B(t) (1 ρ)a+βsb + µ 1 S + θs bv θs + µ 1 V + bv ρa

17 The Jacobian of F is F = 0 βs The Jacobian of ν is V = µ 1 + d + α 0 η µ 2 The inverse of V is V 1 = 1 d + α+µ 1 0 η µ 2 (d + α+µ 1 ) 1 µ 2

18 The spectral radius of FV 1 is ρ(fv 1 ) = The reproduction number is R 0 = ηβa[b+(1 ρ)µ 1 ] µ 1 µ 2 (µ 1 + θ + b)(µ 1 + α+d) ηβa[b +(1 ρ)µ 1 ] µ 1 µ 2 (µ 1 + θ + b)(µ 1 + α+d)

19 Stability of the DFE We want to discuss the local and global stability of the DFE of Model 1 Theorem: The DFE is locally asymptotically stable for R 0 < 1 and unstable for R 0 > 1. to prove this, we define new variables x 1 = S S 0, x 2 = V V 0, x 3 = I, x 4 = B

20 The associated linear system is: Ẋ = MX Where M = (θ+µ 1 ) 0 0 βs 0 θ (b + µ 1 ) βs 0 (d + αµ 1 ) 0 0 η µ 2 X = (x 1, x 2, x 3, x 4 ) T ) and T denotes transpose of a matrix.

21 Eigenvalues Two of the Eigenvalues of M are λ 1 = (b + µ 1 ) < 0, λ 2 = (θ + µ 1 ) < 0 The other two are given by λ 3,4 = 1 2 = 1 2 ( ) µ 2 ± µ 2 + 4η(d + α+µ 1 )Z ( ) µ 2 ± µ 2 + 4η(d + α+µ 1 )(R 0 1) ( ) βa(b +(1 ρ)µ 1 ) Z = µ 1 (µ 1 + b + θ)(d + α+α) 1 Both λ 3 and λ 4 are negative hence the DFE is locally stable for R 0 < 1.

22 Global stability of the DFE The DFE is globally stable for R 0 < 1 and unstable for R 0 > 1. The Model can be subdivided into two sets X 1 = (S, V) and X 2 = (I, B) so that X = (X 1, X 2 ) T The sub-system X 1 is given by ds dv = (1 ρ) A βs(t)b(t)+bv(t) θs(t) µ 1 S(t) = ρa+θs(t) bv(t) µ 1 V(t)

23 The sub-system X 2 is given by di db = βs(t)b(t) (d + α+µ 1 ) = γb(t)+ηi(t)

24 It is easy to show that the sub-system X 1 = (S, V) is globally asymptotically stable at ( ) A(b +(1 ρ) X1 = µ1 ) µ 1 (µ 1 + b + θ), A(θ + ρµ 1 ) µ 1 (µ 1 + b + θ)

25 The matrix A 2 (X) from subsystem X 2 is given by A 2 (X) = (µ 1 + d + α) βs η µ 2 The maximum of A 2 (X) occurs at the DFE given by A 2 (X) = (µ 1 + d + α) βs 0 η µ 2 The spectral bound of α(a 2 ( X)A 2 (X)) is R 0 1.