GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH

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1 GEO GRA P HICAL RESEA RCH Vol126, No13 May, ,2, 3, 4 (11, ; 21, ; 31, ; 41, ) :,, ;,, : ,,, : ; ; ; : (2007) ,, U,, [ 1 8 ],, [9 14 ],,,,,, [ 15 ],,,, , 1 111,, : ; : : ( ) ; (CXIOG2B05203) : (19782),,,,

2 3 : km 2, , GDP 11031, 8 %, 48157, 9 %,, GDP, GDP , ,,, ( ),,,, : l y i, t + k y i, t = + l ( y i, t) + it (1), y i, t i t ; y i, t + k i t + k ;,,,,,, Aseli [16 ] Rey [ 4 ],,, 11212, [17 ], : I = i = 1 j = 1 w ij ( x t, i - gx) ( x j, t - gx) ( i = 1 j = 1 : Ii = w ij ) i = 1 ( x i, t - gx) 2 ( i = 1,2, ; j = 1,2,, ) (2) ( x i - gx) w ij ( x j - gx) (3) ( x i - gx) 2 j = 1 i = 1, ; x i, t x j, t i j t GDP ; gx t GDP ; W ij, i j, 1, 0, i = j, 0 I 1 1, 0, 0, I, 0, Ii, i,, ( S patial er ror model)

3 592 26, = W + (4) y = X + ( I - W) 1 (5), ;, W ; N (0, 2 I), y X 1 ( S patial la g model),,, : y = W y + X + (6) y = ( I - W) - 1 X + ( I - W) - 1 (7), ; W y, (5) W,, W 3 ij = W ij / (CV), GDP ,, 1,, , CV, , CV, , CV,, 1992 CV , CV 0117,,, j = 1 W ij (8) GDP Fig1 1 Tredlie of GDP per capita ad spatial autocorrelatio i Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Metropolita Regio from 1992 to 2003 Mora s I, ,, ,, , Mora s I 0107, , :,, GDP, GDP,,, :,, ;,,

4 3 : 593,,,, 212 Mora s I Mora s I ( Ii), GDP Mora s I, ( H H) ;, (L H) ; ( ), (LL ) ;, ( HL) 2 3 4, 1992, 8215 %, 5613 %, GDP,,, , , , , 1992 GDP,, , GDP Mora s I,, Fig1 4 Mora s I scatter plot of GDP per capita i Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Metropolita, Regio from 1992 to 2003 ;,

5 594 26,, 2003,,, , 85 %,, 5, 1992, 37,,,,, 2003, 46,,,, ,,,,, 5 (1992, 2003 ) Fig15 Spatial patter of ecoomic growth type i Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Metropolita Regio i 1992 ad ,,,,,, Perro 0,, 0 [18 ] 1992, 1992, 1997

6 3 : 595 (1997 ), Aseli GeoDA,, , ,,, ( 1 3), , ; ,,,, ; ,,,,,,,, Aseli Rey,,, [19 ],,, 1 Tab11 Parameter estimatio result of covergece i Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Metropolita Regio ( t ) R 2 F L IK AIC SC ( ) (01 605) ( ) (01 546) ( ) Robust L M ( Error) Robust LM(Lag) Mora s I ( Error) Breusch2Paga Jarque2Bera ( ) (011234) (010908) ( ) ( ) (011797) :L IK,AIC,SC,, (L IK),, (AIC) (SC),, : = - I (1 + ) / k, k ; Robust L M ( Error) Robust L M (Lag),, Mora s I Breusch2Paga,,, Jarque2Bera test,,,

7 Tab12 Parameter estimatio result of spatial error model i Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Metropolita Regio (Z ) ( ) ( ) (010278) ( ) R 2 L IK AIC SC ( Z ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Likelihood Ratio Test Breusch2Paga test (017719) (019722) 3 Tab1 3 Parameter estimatio result of spatial lag model i Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Metropolita Regio (Z ) ( ) ( ) (014277) ( ) R 2 L IK AIC SC ( Z ) ( ) ( ) ( ) Likelihood Ratio Test Breusch2Paga test (016051) ( ),, 2 %,,, GDP 2 %, 5 GDP 2 % [13 ] %,,,,,

8 3 : 597, 8,, , 27216,, 35,,, 12 4,, : (1), (2),,,,,,, (3) GDP (4),, : [ 1 ] Barro Robert J,Xavier X,Sala - I - Marti1 Covergece across states ad regios1 Brookigs Papers o Ecoomic Activity,1991,1 : [ 2 ] Carlio G,Mills L1 Are US regioal icomes covergig?joural of Moetary Ecoomics,1993,32 : [ 3 ] Berard Adrew B,Joes Charles I1 Comparig apples to orages : Productivity covergece ad measuremet across idustries ad coutries1 America Ecoomic Review,1996,86 : [ 4 ] Rey Sergio J,Motouri Brett D1 US regioal covergece :A spatial ecoomic perspective1 Regioal Studies,1999, 33 (2) : [ 5 ] Tsioas E G1 Regioal growt h ad covergece : Evidece from t he Uites States1 Regioal1 Studies,2000,34 (3) : [ 6 ] Coulombe S1 New evidece of covergece across Caadia Provices : The role of urbaizatio1 Regioal Studies, 2000,34 (8) : [ 7 ] Chatter J M, Dewhurst J H L1 Covergece clubs ad relative ecoomic performace i Great Britai1 Regioal Studies,1996,30 : [ 8 ] Fuke,Micchael,Strulik Holger1 Regioal growt h i West Germay :Covergece or divergece? Ecoomic Model2 ig,1999,16 : [ 9 ], 1 1,2003, (8) :3 151 [ 10 ], 1-1,2000, (10) : [ 11 ], 1 1,2002, (1) : [ 12 ] 1 1,2001, (6) : [ 13 ] 1 1,1997, (3) : [ 14 ],, 1 1,2005,24 (1) : [ 15 ] 1 1, [ 16 ] Aseli Luc1 Local idicators of spatial associatio - L ISA1 Geographical Aalysis,1995,27 (2) : [ 17 ],, 1 1,2004,23 (3) : [ 18 ] Perro P1 Furt her evidece o breakig tred fuctios i macroecoomic variables1joural of Ecoometrics,1997,

9 : [ 19 ] Aseli Luc, Rey Sergio J1 Properties of test s for spatial depedece i liear regressio models1 Geog1 Aal1, 1991,23 (2) : Spatial aalysis of ecoomic growth covergece mechaism i Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Metropolita Regio MA Guo2xia 1,2, XU Yog 3, TIAN Yu2ju 4 (11 Graduate School of the Chiese Academy of Scieces,Beijig ,Chia ; 21 Research Ceter o Data Techologly ad Kowledge Ecoomy, CAS, Beijig , Chia ; 31 Istitute of Geographic Scieces ad Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijig ,Chia ; 41Departmet of Geography, Teachers College,Shihezi Uiversity,Xijiag Shihezi ,Chia) Abstract :The questio of regio al co vergece is of great iterest to regio al scietist s,but t he majority of empirical st udies of regioal covergece i literat ure have bee focused o t he traditioal covergece methods i which t he geograp hic etities are treated as isola2 ted islads ad have ot explicitly cosidered t he regioal spatial depedece1 I t his pa2 per, met hods of exploratory spatial data aalysis ad spatial autocorrelatio model p rovide ew isight s to explore spatial depedece relatio of Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Met ropolita Regio over the period1 Furt hermore, usig spatial ecoometrics, icome co2 vergece was comp uted by usig three differet models, which are spatial lag model, spa2 tial error model ad traditioal covergece model1 Some result s are draw as follows : (1) Spatial depedece plays a importat role i aalyzig regioal icome cover2 gece1 The applicatio of explorato ry spatial data aalysis met hods revealed st ro g evi2 dece for spatial depedece of regioal ecoomic growt h ad improved traditioal cover2 gece model1 (2) The specificatio of t raditio al co vergece model is misspecificatio due to igorig spatial depedece1 Spatial lag model ad spatial error model,which take spa2 tial lagged depedet variables ad spatial lagged error terms ito accout based o tradi2 tioal covergece model, optimize the struct ure of model, ad give helpf ul hit s of t he meaig of co verget eco o my2policy1 ( 3) A spatial aalysis of Mora scat ter plot of GDP per capita idicates t hat ecoomic growt h is also highly spatial depedece i Beijig2 Tiaji2Hebei Metropolita Regio betwee 1992 ad 2003, amely, a high icome couty with high icome eighbors ad a low icome couty surrouded by low icome eighbors1 (4) Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Met ropolita Regio co verges to a specific steady2state i GD P per capita from 1992 to At t he same time,beijig2tiaji2hebei Metropolita Regio is the p hase of polarizatio ad ecoomic disparity is big,t he rate of covergece is small1 Key words :Beijig2Tiaji2Hebei Met ropolita Regio ; co vergece ; spatial effect ; spatial model