Regional Economic Development

Transcription

1 Regional Economic Development

2 Robert J. Stimson Roger R. Stough Brian H. Roberts Regional Economic Development Analysis and Planning Strategy Second Edition 123

3 Robert J. Stimson Professor of Geographical Sciences and Planning and Convenor Australian Research Council Research Network in Spatially Integrated Social Science University of Queensland Brisbane QLD 4072 Australia Professor Roger R. Stough School of Public Policy George Mason University 4400 University Dr. MS 2C9 Fairfax VA Australia Professor Brian H. Roberts Centre for Developing Cities University of Canberra ACT 2601 Australia ISBN Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York ISBN Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York ISBN Ed. Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York Library of Congress Control Number: This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media Originally published in the series: Advances in Spatial Science Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2002, 2006 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Typesetting: Camera ready by author Production: LE-TEXJelonek,Schmidt&VöcklerGbR,Leipzig Cover-design: WMX Design GmbH, Heidelberg SPIN /3100YL Printed on acid-free paper

4 Foreword The second edition of this book represents a re-editing and in some cases significant rewriting of the original book published in Substantial editing occurred and new material has been included in the introductory chapter and in Chap. 10, the concluding chapter. The reason for this was to bring forward to 2006 the original thesis of the book about the need for regions to be prepared to experience increasingly greater shocks and to have increasingly less time to respond in adjusting their economic development to achieve sustainability. Events that have occurred over the past five years - such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks, continuing the rapid advances in technology, the rise of sustained economic growth in China and beginning to unfold in India, the Indonesian Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina devastation in New Orleans, the invasion of Iraq and continued unrest in the Middle East represents on-going and unforeseen risks and new challenges which continue to confront and impact nations around the globe and the regions and localities within them. Regions need to be fast and flexible and agile in order to be not only expeditiously adaptive to change, but also to be proactive in developing strategies to address and shape their futures. In addition, some significant new material has been added to the other chapters to reflect recent advances in thinking and approaches to regional economic development analysis and planning strategy. For example, one of the most significant additions is the material on leadership and regional economic development in Chap. 8 that reflects considerable new thinking and research on how to conceptualize that leadership and institutions as platforms for sustainable regional economic development. In Chap.6, the discussion on industry clusters and cluster analysis contains new material that reflects an evolving foundation methodology for the initial identification of clusters in an unambiguous and systemic way and the validating mechanisms that may be used. This adds a new and important element to the discussion in the first edition of the book. The section on spatial cluster analysis that was in this chapter in the first edition has been moved to Chap. 9 on decision support systems as it offers a clear application of GIS to a basic analysis issue. Thus, a reader wishing to focus on industry cluster analysis will need to jump forward from Chap. 6 to Chap. 9 to continue the flow from functional cluster analysis to spatial analysis of industry clusters. And in this second edition of the book, in Chap. 7 there is some new material on the nature of regional risk factors and the way regional risk assessment may be assessed and in order that risk management approaches can be incorporated into regional development strategy and plans.

5 VI Foreword For all the chapters, the methodological components and case studies have been fully and carefully edited to ensure additional clarity for the reader. A number of new case studies have been added in some of the chapters, and old case studies updated where possible or appropriate. In this context, all of the equations and expressions have been reviewed and tested to ensure that they are correct. This should clear up some of the confusion that arose over the expressions used in the first edition, as, for example, for the material on shift-share analysis in Chap. 3. In Chap. 9, in the section dealing with the regional input-output econometric forecasting model for the Northern Virginia and National Capital Region, data has been added to the forecasts so that the methodology can be evaluated in terms of outcomes. This adds a new and interesting dimension to this analysis. Throughout this second edition of the book, we have taken specific care to more explicitly frame the discussion of theory and applications to reflect the attention being given in contemporary research to the influence of endogenous factors in regional growth and development. In addition, we also more explicitly incorporate discussion of sustainability to reflect the increasingly pervasive concern with principles of sustainable development in regional planning and development. In Chap. 2, case studies on planning approaches incorporating sustainable development have been added. Finally, we have added many new references to published work that has appeared in the last few years so that readers will be able to pursue both historic and current literature in the field with which this book is concerned.

6 Acknowledgements A number of people over the years from the mid 1990s on have worked to help the authors bring this book into a published form for the second time. In this second edition Ms. Emilia Istrate has taken on the task of verifying content, page numbers and eliminating awkwardness in the prose, figures and charts. She has spent many days to make sure that the book is in fine shape. Chunpu Song is due special thanks for reviewing and testing all equations to ensure that they are in a correct form. Donna Sherrard provided keying assistance in making author corrections to the manuscript.

7 Preface Regional economic development has attracted the interest of economists, geographers, planners and regional scientists for a long time. And, of course, it is a field that has developed a large practitioner cohort in government and business agencies from the national down to the state and local levels. In planning for cities and regions, both large and small, economic development issues now tend to be integrated into strategic planning processes. For at least the last 50 years, scholars from various disciplines have theorised about the nature of regional economic development, developing a range of models seeking to explain the process of regional economic development, and why it is that regions vary so much in their economic structure and performance and how these aspects of a region can change dramatically over time. Regional scientists in particular have developed a comprehensive tool-kit of methodologies to measure and monitor regional economic characteristics such as industry sectors, employment, income, value of production, investment, and the like, using both quantitative and qualitative methods of analysis, and focusing on both static and dynamic analysis. The father of regional science, Walter Isard, was the first to put together a comprehensive volume on techniques of regional analysis (Isard 1960), and since then a huge literature has emerged, including the many titles in the series published by Springer in which this book is published. Over time, scholars and practitioners from many fields including planning, public administration, business, and the management sciences have also developed various approaches to formulating strategy for regional economic development in a systematic way. This process of regional economic development strategy planning and implementation needs to be informed by regional analysis. This book is about the analysis of regional economic performance and change, and how analysis integrates with strategies for local and regional economic development policy and planning. Quite deliberately this book is not about the theory of regional economic development, although it provides the reader with an overview of key theoretical and conceptual contexts within which the economic development process takes place. Rather, the deliberate emphasis in this book is to provide the reader both students and practitioners with an account of quantitative and qualitative approaches to regional economic analysis and of old and new strategic frameworks for formulating regional economic development planning. This is done within the context of the evolution of society from the industrial to the post-industrial era in which contemporary forces of globalisation and economic restructuring are creating increasing interdependence, rapid change, and high levels of uncertainty and risk for regions at all levels of scale.

8 X Preface The book sets out to provide teachers, students and practitioners in regional economic development with a tool-kit of tried and tested methods for regional economic analysis and strategy planning. But importantly it also introduces the reader to recent innovations and extensions in methodologies for setting about the process of regional economic development planning. This is a how-to-do-it type of book, incorporating many examples of application of tools of analysis and strategic planning processes in local and regional economic development. At the same time it is cast in a story type framework about the evolution of economic development strategy and the ways strategy is being formulated in the post-fordist era of the 21 st century. However, in this context, a considerable part of the book is about the applied research experiences the authors have enjoyed with our collaborating colleagues; but we also draw on the work of many other researchers and practitioners. The bibliography provides the reader with a wide range of theoretical, methodological and applications literature to pursue. It is the authors hope that this book will help the reader to better understand the key considerations in regional economic development, to appreciate the value of the tools for regional analysis discussed, and to develop a better appreciation of the importance of good design for the process of regional economic development strategy formulation. In the complex world of the early 21 st century, regions both large and small need to be fast and flexible in adapting to the challenges of an increasingly competitive and rapidly changing set of factors that are both exogenous and endogenous to a region. This requires commitment to good practice techniques for analysing regional performance and to the process of regional economic development and strategy planning. It requires commitment to sustained leadership. And it requires the development of comprehensive and integrated information systems to understand and monitor the performance of a region and to help develop and test scenarios for future paths for regional development. R. J. Stimson R. R. Stough B. H. Roberts

9 Contents Foreword V Acknowledgements VII Preface IX 1 Perspectives on Regional Economic Development Regions in the New Global Economy What Is Regional Economic Development? Understanding How Regional Economies Work and the 7 Challenge that Represents for Development Planning 1.4 The Changing Paradigms Shaping Economic 11 Development Policy and Strategy 1.5 Some Core Theories and Models of Regional Economic 18 Development 1.6 Thinking Global While Acting Local Sustainable Development Schools Shaping Thinking About Regional Economic 42 Development Strategy and Planning 1.9 New Tools, New Strategies for Regional Economic 46 Development Planning 1.10 Scope and Structure of this Book 49 2 The Regional Economic Development Movement: The 53 Evolution of Strategy from Early to Contemporary Approaches 2.1 The Changing Context The Changing Objectives of Local Economic 55 Development Policy 2.3 Approaches to Planning for Regional Development in the s and 1980s 2.4 Monitoring Outcomes of Economic Development 73 Programs 2.5 The Strategic Planning Approach The Concern with Sustainable Development 84

10 XII Contents 2.7 An Enabling Planning Framework for Regional Economic 98 Strategy Formulation 2.8 Summary Traditional Tools for Measuring and Evaluating Regional 105 Economic Performance I: Economic Base and Shift-Share Analysis 3.1 The Need to Measure Regional Economic Performance Economic Base Theory and Industrial Targeting Shift-Share Analysis Critiques and Extensions of Traditional Shift-Share 121 Analysis 3.5 Using the Regional Shift Component as a Dependent 136 Variable to Model Determinants of Spatial Variation in Regional Endogenous Growth: A Case Study of Queensland, Australia 3.6 Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) Conclusions Traditional Tools for Measuring and Evaluating Regional 157 Economic Performance II: Input-Output Analysis 4.1 Measuring Regional Inter-Industry Linkages Compiling a Regional Input-Output Table Exogenous and Endogenous Effects Using Input-Output Analysis to Measure Impact of an 162 Economic Activity 4.5 Using Input-Output Analysis as a Predictive Tool A Forecasting Application of Input-Output Analysis: An 165 Economic Development Strategy for the Brisbane South East Queensland Region, Australia 4.7 Using Sub-Regional Input-Output Analysis to Measure 187 Impact Assessment 4.8 New and Emerging Extensions to Input-Output Models 189 and Conclusions 5 Path Setting: An Approach to Regional Economic 191 Development Futures 5.1 New Approaches in the Contemporary Era Futures Analyzing Futures Recent Developments in Economic Strategy Formulation A New Synthetic Strategic Framework for Planning 222

11 Contents XIII 5.6 The Future Direction of Strategy for Regional Economic 232 Development 5.7 Summary Industry Clusters and Industry Cluster Analysis A New Context Globalization, Industry Structure and Localization Industry Clusters: A Contemporary Strategy A Basic Approach to Building Industry Clusters Industry Clusters as the New Engines of Metropolitan 252 Economies in the US 6.6 Quantitative Analysis to Identify and Measure Regional 257 Industry Clusters 6.7 The Process for a Region Undertaking Cluster Industry 270 Development 6.8 Conclusions Multi-Sector Analysis : Approaches to Assesing Regional 279 Competitiveness and Risk 7.1 The Need for a New Technique Theoretical Basis for Multi-Sector Analysis (MSA) Using MSA for Regional Strategy The Process for Operationalising the MSA Approach Examples Applying Multi-Sector Analysis Future Development of Multi-Sector Analysis Capacity Building, Institutions and Leadership for 319 Regional Economic Development 8.1 An Emerging New Perspective on Regional Capacity 319 Building 8.2 Endogenous Processes Social Capital Leadership and Institutional Capacity Building Leadership and Regional Economic Development: A 323 Conceptual Model 8.6 Re-Engineering Regions and Rapid Response Networks, Strategic Alliances and Network Resources Conclusions Decision Support Tools to Inform Regional Economic 349 Development Analysis and Strategy 9.1 Using Spatial Information Technology to Build Decision Support Systems 349

12 XIV Contents 9.2 Geographic Information Systems Case Study of a GIS to Support Economic Development 352 Decision Making 9.4 A Spatial Decision Support System Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis A Spatial Optimization Modelling and Visualization 373 Capacity 9.7 Spatial Analysis of Geographic Clustering of Industry 382 Clusters 9.8 Conclusions Emerging Issues for Regional Economic Development A Rapidly Changing World: The Need for a New 385 Paradigm 10.2 Future Directions of Regional Economic Strategy Managing Risk The Evolution of Analytical Tools The Challenge of the Virtual Economy Sustainable Development Being Fast and Flexible in Search of Sustainable 413 Development Figures 415 Tables 419 References 423 Index 449