The Reforms Needed to Build an. Ecological Economy

Transcription

1 The Reforms Needed to Build an Robert Costanza Professor and VC s Chair in Public Policy Crawford School of Public Policy Australian National University Canberra ACT 0200, Australia Co-Editor in Chief, Solutions ( Sept 1, 2017, Southbank, Brisbane Ecological Economy

2 Human influence on the earth system is now so large, that a new geologic epoch (the Anthropocene) has begun. We now live in a Full World Business as usual is not an option To create a sustainable and desirable Anthropocene, we need to think and act differently

3 Vision How the world is How we would like it to be Sustainable and Desirable Future Tools & Analysis Systems thinking and Modelling Implementation Including societal therapy

4 Empty World View Full World View Economy Environment = Nature Economy Society Society Environment (the rest of Nature) Nature = the whole system

5 Huber, Lenton, and Schellnhuber, in Richardson et al The world is a complex, non-linear, adaptive system, with thresholds, tipping points, and surprises

6 PLANETARY BOUNDARIES: THERE ARE FUNDAMENTAL ECOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS Rockström, J., et al A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461: Steffen, W., J. Rockström, and R. Costanza How Defining Planetary Boundaries Can Transform Our Approach to Growth. Solutions. Vol 2, No. 3, May 2011

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8 We need a third movie

9 We need a third movie A sustainable and desirable economy-in-society-in-the rest of nature

10 health water Elements education community fairness food of well-being security energy & Quality identity of ecoservices freedom incomelife leisure participation The Sustainable and Desirable doughnut (after: K. Raworth A safe and just space for humanity: can we live within the doughnut? Oxfam International)

11 Integrated Questions/Goals: Ecologically Sustainable Scale Socially Fair Distribution Economically Efficient Allocation

12 TRANSFORMING OUR WORLD: THE 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

13 The relationship of the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to the framework of ecological economics and the overarching goal of a sustainable, equitable and prosperous system. (Costanza et al Modelling and measuring sustainable wellbeing in connection with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Ecological Economics. 130: Overarching Goal: A prosperous, high quality of life that is equitably shared and sustainable Sustainable Scale: Staying within planetary boundaries Natural Capital/Ecosyste m Services Fair Distribution: Protecting capabilities for flourishing Social Capital/Commun ity (Surveys) Efficient Allocation: Building a living economy Net Economic Contribution (GPI 2.0) Ecological Economics Framework 6. Water & sanitation for all 13. Urgent action on climate change 14. Conserve marine ecosystems 15. Conserve terrestrial ecosystems 1. End poverty for all 2. End hunger for all 3. Ensure healthy lives for all 4. Ensure equitable quality education for all 5. Achieve gender equality 10. Reduce inequality within and among countries 16. Promote justice and accountable institutions 17. Strengthen global partnerships 7. Ensure access to sustainable energy 8. Promote inclusive economic prosperity 9. Build resilient infrastructure 11. Build resilient and sustainable cities 12. Ensure sustainable consumption patterns UN SDGs 167 Targets, 300+ Indicators

14 Empty World Vision of the Economy Property rights Private Public Individual Utility/welfare Building Capital (Built) Consumption Education, Training, Research Labor Economic Process GDP Goods and Services Cultural Norms and Policy Improvement Land Investment

15 Full World Vision of the Whole System Complex property rights regimes Ecological services/ amenities Well Being (Individual and Community) Individual Common Public Solar Energy Restoration, Conservation Education, training, research. Institutional rules, norms, etc. Building Natural Capital Human Capital SocialCapital Built Capital Economic Production Process GDP negative impacts on all forms of capital Wastes Goods and Services Consumption (based on changing, adapting preferences) Evolving Cultural Norms and Policy Investment (decisions about, taxes community spending, education, science and technology policy, etc., based on complex property rights regimes) Materially closed earth system Waste heat

16 From: Costanza, R. B. Fisher, S. Ali, C. Beer, L. Bond, R. Boumans, N. L. Danigelis, J. Dickinson, C. Elliott, J. Farley, D. E. Gayer, L. MacDonald Glenn, T. Hudspeth, D. Mahoney, L. McCahill, B. McIntosh, B. Reed, S. A. T. Rizvi, D. M. Rizzo, T. Simpatico, and R. Snapp Quality of Life: An Approach Integrating Opportunities, Human Needs, and Subjective Well-Being. Ecological Economics 61:

17 Social Capital Built Capital Human Capital Natural Capital Ecosystem Services Interaction X From: Sustainable Human Well-Being Costanza, R., R. de Groot, P. Sutton, S. van der Ploeg, S. Anderson, I. Kubiszewski, S. Farber, and R. K. Turner Changes in the global value of ecosystem services. Global Environmental Change 26:

18 NATURE VOL MAY 1997 The value of the world s ecosystem services and natural capital Robert Costanza, Ralph d Arge, Rudolf de Groot, Stephen Farber, Monica Grasso, Bruce Hannon, Karin Limburg, Shahid Naeem, Robert V. O Neill, Jose Paruelo, Robert G. Raskin, Paul Sutton & Marjan van den Belt For the entire biosphere, the value (most of which is outside the market) is estimated to be in the range of US$16 54 trillion (1012) per year, with an average of US$33trillion per year. Valuing 2 nd most cited article in the Ecology/Environment area according to the ISI Web of Science with more than 6,000 citations

19 we estimated the loss of eco-services from 1997 to 2011 due to land use change at $ trillion/yr.

20 Economic Reasons for Conserving Wild Nature Costs of expanding and maintaining the current global reserve network to one covering 15% of the = $US 45 Billion/yr terrestrial biosphere and 30% of the marine biosphere Benefits (Net value* of ecosystem services from the global reserve = network) *Net value is the difference between the value of services in a wild state and the value in the most likely human-dominated alternative $US 4,400-5,200 Billion/yr Benefit/Cost Ratio = 100:1 (From: Balmford, A., A. Bruner, P. Cooper, R. Costanza, S. Farber, R. E. Green, M. Jenkins, P. Jefferiss, V. Jessamy, J. Madden, K. Munro, N. Myers, S. Naeem, J. Paavola, M. Rayment, S. Rosendo, J. Roughgarden, K. Trumper, and R. K. Turner Economic reasons for conserving wild nature. Science 297: )

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23 Natural capital is not a footnote in a business plan, it is a core asset on the balance sheet. That s true for an individual business; and it is true also for the nation.

24 Fair distribution is essential to quality of life

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28 Source: Deaton, 2008.

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30 a country s gross domestic product (GDP) measures everything except that which makes life worthwhile. Robert F. Kennedy 1968.

31 from: Costanza, R., S. Farber, B. Castaneda and M. Grasso Green national accounting: goals and methods. Chapter in: Cleveland, C. J., D. I. Stern and R. Costanza (eds.) The nature of economics and the economics of nature. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, England (in press) A range of goals for national accounting and their corresponding frameworks, measures, and valuation methods Goal Basic Framework Nonenvironmentally adjusted measures Marketed value of marketed goods and services produced and consumed in an economy GNP (Gross National Product) GDP (Gross Domestic Product) NNP (Net National Product) Economic Income Weak Sustainability 1 + nonmarketed goods and services consumption Strong Sustainability 2 + preserve essential natural capital Economic Welfare value of the wefare effects of income and other factors (including distribution, household work, loss of natural capital etc.) MEW (Measure of Economic Welfare) Human Welfare assessment of the degree to which human needs are fulfilled HDI (Human Development Index) Environmentally adjusted measures Appropriate Valuation Methods NNP (Net National Product including nonproduced assetts) Market values ENNP (Environmental Net National Product) SEEA (System of Environmental Economic Accounts) 1 + Willingness to Pay Based Values (see Table 2) SNI (Sustainable National Income) SEEA (System of Environmental Economic Accounts) 2 + Replacement Costs,+ Production Values ISEW (Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare) GPI (Genuine Progress Indicator) 3 + Constructed Preferences HNA (Human Needs Assessment) SWB (Subjective Well- Being) 4 + Consensus Building Dialogue

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33 Indicator Units Indic ators Explanation Area coverage Time Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) $ 26 Personal Consumption Expenditures weighted by income distribution, with volunteer and household work added and environmental and social costs subtracted. 17 countries + regions present Genuine Savings $ 5 Level of saving after depreciation of produced capital; investments in human capital; depletion of minerals/energy/forests; and damages from air pollutants are accounted for 140 countries Inclusive Wealth $ 8 Asset wealth including, built, human, and natural resources 20 countries Australian Unity Well- Being Index Index # 14 Annual survey of various aspects of well-being and quality of life Australia present World Values Survey Index # 100's Periodic (5 so far) survey of a broad range of social, environmental, and economic variables 73 countries Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index Gross National Happiness Index # 39 Index # 33 Annual survey in six domains: live evaluation, physical health, emotional health, healthy behavior, work environment, and basic assets In-person survey in nine domains: psychological well-being, standard of living, governance, health, education, community vitality, cultural diversity, time use, ecological diversity 50 states in US present Bhutan 2010 Human Development Index (HDI) Index # 4 Index of GDP/person, spending on health and education, and life expectancy Happy Planet Index Index # 3 HPI = subjective well being * life expectancy / ecological footprint Canadian Index of Well-Being National Well-Being Index OECD Better Life Index Index # 80 Index # 5 Index # 25 Includes community vitality, democratic engagement, education, environment, population, leisure, living standards, and time use proxies for built, human, natural and social capital with weights based on regression with subjective well-being Includes housing, income, jobs community education, environment, civic engagement, health, life satisfaction, saftey, and work-life balance Well-Being of Nations Index # indicators in 20 domains weighted and ranked 177 countries 153 countries Canada present 3 yrs 56 countries 1 yr 36 OECD countries 180 countries present 1 yr

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35 Top 30

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38 From: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68

39 From: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68

40 Source: Kubiszewski, I., R. Costanza et al Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68

41 GPI /capita for the 17 countries for which it has been estimated From: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68

42 Economic growth Un-Economic growth From: Kubiszewski, Costanza et al Beyond GDP: Measuring and Achieving Global Genuine Progress. Ecological Economics 93:57-68

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46 To create a sustainable and desirable economy-in-society-in-the rest of nature requires: Breaking our addiction to the "growth at all costs" economic paradigm, to fossil fuels, and to over-consumption Envisioning a more sustainable and desirable future that focuses on quality of life

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48 Motivational Interviewing (MI) is one of the most effective therapies for treatment of substance addictions Based on engaging addicts in a positive discussion of their goals, motives, and futures. MI suggests that there are four basic principles that underlie successful therapies. In a societal context, these basic MI principles can be summarized as: 1. Engaging: building relationships with diverse stakeholders to enable change talk 2. Focusing: developing shared goals among those stakeholders 3. Evoking: helping stakeholders identify motivations for positive change 4. Planning: helping stakeholders move from goals to actual change

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50 Focus on GDP growth Individualism Market Forces The market knows best Inequality not addressed Fortress World Everyone for themselves Limited Governance Policy Reform Need planning and government Equity maintained Great Transition We re all in this together Governance at many levels Stewardship and sharing Community Focus on Well-being From: Kubiszewski I., R. Costanza, S. Anderson, and P. Sutton The Future of Ecosystem Services: Global Scenarios and National Implications. Ecosystem Services. 26:

51 Individualism Market Forces Focus on GDP growth Focus on Well-being Policy Reform Fortress World Great Transition Community

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55 A no-growth disaster A no-growth disaster A better low/no-growth positive economy Source: Victor, P Managing Without Growth, Edward Elgar.

56 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world New meanings and measures of success

57 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world Limits on materials, energy, wastes, and land use

58 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world More meaningful prices

59 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world More durable, repairable products

60 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world Fewer status goods

61 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world More informative advertising

62 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world Better screening of technology

63 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world More efficient capital stock

64 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world More local, less global

65 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world Reduced inequality

66 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world Less work, more leisure

67 12 things we need to change A no-growth disaster to create a better world Education for life, not just work

68 Vision How the world is How we would like it to be Sustainable and Desirable Future Tools & Analysis Systems thinking and Modelling Implementation Including societal therapy

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70 Online and Print; Hybrid peer-reviewed academic journal and popular magazine; Uses a more participatory and transdisciplinary review process; Focuses on seriously creative dialog to solve complex problems in an integrated way Editors-in-Chief: Robert Costanza, Ida Kubiszewski, Lorenzo Fioramonti Associate Editors: Jacqueline McGlade, David Orr Editorial Board: Gar Alperovitz, Ray Anderson, Vinya Ariyaratne, Robert Ayres, Peter Barnes, Bill Becker, Lester Brown, Ernest Callenbach, Alexander Chikunov, Cutler Cleveland, Raymond Cole, Rita Colwell, Bob Corell, Herman Daly, Thomas Dietz, Josh Farley, Jerry Franklin, Susan Joy Hassol, Paul Hawken, Richard Heinberg, Jeffrey Hollender, Buzz Hollling, Terry Irwin, Jon Isham, Wes Jackson, Tim Kasser, Tom Kompas, Frances Moore Lappe, Rik Leemans, Wenhua Li, Tom Lovejoy, Hunter Lovins, Manfred Max-Neef, Peter May, Bill McKibben, William Mitsch, Mohan Munasinghe, Norman Myers, Elinore Ostrom, Kristín Vala Ragnarsdóttir, Bill Rees, Wolfgang Sachs, Peter Senge, Vandana Shiva, Anthony Simon, Gus Speth, Larry Susskind, David Suzuki, John Todd, Mary Evelyn Tucker, Alvaro Umaña, Sim van der Ryn, Peter Victor, Mathis Wackernagel, John Xia, and Mike Young

71 Thank You Papers mentioned in this presentation can be downloaded from:

72 Research Themes 1. Integrated, Dynamic Analysis and Modelling of Socio-Ecological Systems: How do we better understand, model, value and manage our complex, interdependent systems of humans and the rest of nature over multiple space and time scales? the dynamics and spatial patterns of natural capital assets, ecosystem services, and ecosystem health in terrestrial and marine systems. social and cultural capital (rules, norms, markets, institutions, etc.) and the complex interconnections and dynamics among the parts of the system. 2. Measuring Well-Being: How do we measure human and environmental well-being in a more integrated way, including built, human, social and natural capital assets and their interactions and services? integrating knowledge from human psychology, economics, ecology, sociology, and other fields. moving well beyond GDP as a measure of progress build on the UN s Sustainable Development Goals process. 3. The Future We Want: How do we engage the full range of stakeholders in envisioning and designing more sustainable and desirable futures? behavioral economics experiments, stakeholder workshops, scenario planning exercises with subsequent public opinion surveys, integrated games, and other approaches.