Table A: Construct Validity Tests for StateHist
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1 Table A: Construct Validity Tests for StateHist Roads Water Hospitals Doctors Mort5 LifeExp GDP/cap * 7.47** 0.96** 0.52** 32.52** 5.63** (2.63) (1.73) (0.24) (0.07) (5.74) (0.75) Democracy * 2.53** ** 9.20** (10.04) (6.63) (0.91) (0.27) (21.93) (2.88) TaxRev 1.44** 0.42^ 0.06^ 0.02* 1.36^ 0.13 (0.33) (0.22) (0.03) (0.01) (0.72) (0.09) StateHist 56.83** 16.29** 1.24^ 0.78** ** (7.91) (5.26) (0.72) (0.22) (17.28) (2.27) Constant 64.15** ** 3.97** ** 7.22 (16.18) (10.70) (1.47) (0.44) (35.34) (4.64) N R ^ p < 0.10, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01 Table A. Cross-sectional OLS regression with standard errors in parentheses. The dependent variables are Roads (% of roads that are paved), Water (% of population with access to an improved water source), Hospitals (number of hospital beds per 1,000 people), Doctors (number of physicians per 1,000 people), Mort5 (under-5 mortality rate), and LifeExp (level of life expectancy). The independent variables are GDP/cap 60 (log level of GDP per capita in 1960), Democracy (mean level during the period ), TaxRev (mean level of tax revenue as a percentage of GDP over the period ), and StateHist. These tests indicate that StateHist has a strong effect on several indicators of public service delivery even after controlling for initial country wealth, the level of democracy over a long period, and the level of tax revenue.
2 Table B: Democracy, State Capacity, and School Enrollment Democracy t ** * ** 2.64^ (3.41) (3.94) (2.48) (3.09) (1.52) (1.53) StateCapac t * 4.91^ * 11.79* 5.52 (4.17) (2.71) (3.25) (2.14) (5.46) (3.40) Democ t 1 StateCapac t ^ 0.04 (6.22) (3.86) (4.81) (3.03) (2.36) (1.42) GDP/cap t ** 9.15** 9.89** 9.42** 9.31** 8.86** (1.85) (1.76) (2.01) (2.04) (1.63) (1.66) DGDP/cap 0.18* 0.20* 0.17^ 0.20* 0.17* 0.19* (0.09) (0.09) (0.09) (0.09) (0.09) (0.09) PopDensity t ^ ^ ^ (0.46) (0.44) (0.47) (0.46) (0.46) (0.44) InfMort t ** 0.54** 0.54** 0.54** 0.54** 0.55** (0.10) (0.10) (0.11) (0.12) (0.09) (0.10) Constant 54.20** 57.39** 59.47** 51.05** 55.06** 50.53** (10.72) (11.93) (13.52) (11.48) (10.05) (9.44) DEnrollSec t ** 0.31** 0.34** 0.31** 0.34** 0.31** (0.07) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) (0.06) (0.06) N Countries R Table B. These models used Fixed Effects Variance Decomposition (FEVD) to permit estimate country fixed effects. The dependent variable is D EnrollSec t : the change in gross secondary school enrollment from the previous period to the current period. All models include time-period dummy variables to capture worldwide trends.
3 Table C: Democracy, State Capacity, and Infant Mortality Democracy t ** 0.10** 0.07** 0.06* 0.06** 0.04** (0.03) (0.04) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.01) StateCapac t * ** ** 0.02 (0.04) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.05) (0.03) Democ t 1 StateCapac t (0.06) (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.02) (0.01) GDP/cap t ** 0.09** 0.10** 0.09** 0.09** 0.09** (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) DGDP/cap PopDensity t ** 0.02** 0.02** 0.02** 0.02** 0.02** (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) InfMort t ** 0.14** 0.14** 0.14** 0.15** 0.14** (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) DInfMort t ** 0.40** 0.40** 0.40** 0.39** 0.40** (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) Constant 1.43** 1.34** 1.40** 1.36** 1.48** 1.36** (0.27) (0.27) (0.28) (0.30) (0.27) (0.26) N Countries R Table C. These models used Fixed Effects Variance Decomposition (FEVD) to permit estimate country fixed effects. The dependent variable is D InfMort t : the change in the log infant mortality rate from the previous period to the current period. All models include time-period dummy variables to capture worldwide trends.
4 Table D: Democracy, State Capacity, and School Enrollment Democracy t ** 4.42^ 2.48* ** 1.48 (1.26) (2.43) (0.97) (1.87) (0.66) (1.11) StateCapac t ** 3.35* 2.27* 2.51** 6.31** 4.84* (1.46) (1.41) (1.12) (0.86) (2.37) (2.31) Democ t 1 StateCapac t ** * * 1.37 (2.83) (2.67) (2.23) (1.99) (1.29) (1.24) GDP/cap t ** 2.21** 2.12** 2.19** 2.15** 2.20** (0.37) (0.36) (0.37) (0.36) (0.37) (0.36) DGDP/cap 0.20** 0.22** 0.20** 0.22** 0.20** 0.21** (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) PopDensity t (0.18) (0.18) (0.18) (0.18) (0.18) (0.18) EnrollSec t ** 0.11** 0.10** 0.11** 0.10** 0.11** (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) DEnrollSec t * 0.12** 0.14** 0.11* 0.14* 0.11* (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) Constant 11.92** 12.58** 10.26** 11.33** 12.70** 13.57** (2.58) (2.52) (2.61) (2.54) (2.66) (2.82) N Countries R Democracy Polity2 Polity2 BMR UDS Polity2 UDS Table D. Random-effects OLS model with panel-clustered standard errors. OECD countries excluded from this sample. OECD countries excluded from this sample. The dependent variable is D EnrollSec t : the change in gross secondary school enrollment from the previous period to the current period. All models include time-period dummy variables to capture worldwide trends.
5 Table E: Democracy, State Capacity, and Infant Mortality Democracy t ^ * (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) StateCapac t ** ** (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.03) (0.02) Democ t 1 StateCapac t (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) GDP/cap t ** 0.01** 0.01** 0.01** 0.02** 0.01** DGDP/cap PopDensity t * * ^ InfMort t * 0.01* 0.01* 0.01* 0.01* 0.02* (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) DInfMort t ** 0.65** 0.61** 0.65** 0.61** 0.65** (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) Constant 0.18** 0.19** 0.16** 0.17** 0.19** 0.20** (0.05) (0.06) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) N Countries R Table E. Random-effects OLS model with panel-clustered standard errors. OECD countries excluded from this sample. The dependent variable is D InfMort t : the change in the log infant mortality rate from the previous period to the current period. All models include time-period dummy variables to capture worldwide trends.
6 Table F: Democracy, State Capacity, and School Enrollment (with Gini) Democracy t ** 7.06** 2.26* 4.36* 1.55^ 1.77^ (1.59) (2.44) (1.10) (1.77) (0.82) (0.95) StateCapac t * 6.13** ** 5.71^ 6.06** (2.18) (1.66) (1.73) (1.21) (3.17) (2.21) Democ t 1 StateCapac t ** 6.04** 3.85^ 4.27* 2.28^ 1.58^ (2.74) (2.23) (2.07) (1.67) (1.22) (0.85) GDP/cap t ** 2.33** 2.57** 2.41** 2.51** 2.40** (0.52) (0.46) (0.52) (0.46) (0.54) (0.48) DGDP/cap 0.40** 0.34** 0.40** 0.34** 0.40** 0.35** (0.08) (0.09) (0.08) (0.09) (0.09) (0.09) PopDensity t (0.20) (0.18) (0.20) (0.19) (0.20) (0.18) Gini ^ ^ (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) InfMort t ** 0.14** 0.13** 0.13** 0.13** 0.14** (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Constant 14.32** 14.44** 13.22** 13.22** 15.40** 15.30** (3.50) (3.43) (3.50) (3.38) (3.82) (3.64) DEnrollSec t ** 0.20** 0.21** 0.20** 0.21** 0.21** (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) N Countries R Table F. Random-effects OLS model with panel-clustered standard errors. The dependent variable is D EnrollSec t : the change in gross secondary school enrollment from the previous period to the current period. All models include time-period dummy variables to capture worldwide trends. Gini is the pre-tax and transfer level of inequality from Solt (2009).
7 Table G: Democracy, State Capacity, and Infant Mortality (with Gini) Democracy t * 0.07* 0.03* 0.05* 0.02^ 0.02* (0.02) (0.03) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) StateCapac t ** ** ** 0.05^ (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) Democ t 1 StateCapac t ^ ^ * (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) GDP/cap t ** 0.03** 0.02** 0.03** 0.02** 0.03** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) DGDP/cap 0.00** 0.00** 0.00** 0.00** 0.00** 0.00** PopDensity t Gini ** ** * InfMort t * 0.02** 0.02* 0.02** 0.02* 0.02* (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) DInfMort t ** 0.50** 0.50** 0.51** 0.50** 0.51** (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.03) Constant 0.21** 0.26** 0.19* 0.23* 0.23** 0.25** (0.08) (0.09) (0.08) (0.09) (0.09) (0.08) N Countries R Table G. Random-effects OLS model with panel-clustered standard errors. The dependent variable is D InfMort t : the change in the log infant mortality rate from the previous period to the current period. All models include time-period dummy variables to capture worldwide trends. Gini is the pre-tax and transfer level of inequality from Solt (2009).
8 Table H: Democracy, State Capacity, and School Enrollment (with Openness) Democracy t ** 4.44* 2.58** 2.77^ 1.69** 1.49* (1.15) (1.93) (0.88) (1.42) (0.57) (0.74) StateCapac t ** 3.49** 2.25^ 2.68** 5.84** 4.77** (1.44) (1.23) (1.17) (0.82) (2.07) (1.66) Democ t 1 StateCapac t ** 3.50^ 4.63** 2.56^ 2.68** 1.29^ (2.17) (1.92) (1.73) (1.41) (0.93) (0.73) GDP/cap t ** 2.30** 2.35** 2.33** 2.34** 2.32** (0.39) (0.36) (0.39) (0.36) (0.39) (0.36) DGDP/cap 0.26** 0.27** 0.26** 0.27** 0.25** 0.26** (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) PopDensity t (0.18) (0.17) (0.18) (0.17) (0.18) (0.17) Openness (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) InfMort t ** 0.13** 0.12** 0.12** 0.12** 0.13** (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) Constant 13.65** 13.32** 11.94** 12.39** 14.28** 14.46** (2.80) (2.51) (2.78) (2.51) (2.92) (2.64) DEnrollSec t ** 0.16** 0.18** 0.16** 0.18** 0.16** (0.05) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.05) (0.04) N Countries R Table H. Random-effects OLS model with panel-clustered standard errors. The dependent variable is D EnrollSec t : the change in gross secondary school enrollment from the previous period to the current period. All models include time-period dummy variables to capture worldwide trends. Openness is measured as the degree of trade openness from the Penn World Tables (Heston et al. 2011).
9 Table I: Democracy, State Capacity, and Infant Mortality (with Openness) Democracy t * 0.05** 0.03* 0.04** 0.02* 0.02** (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) StateCapac t ** 0.03^ 0.05** ** 0.04* (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) (0.02) Democ t 1 StateCapac t * ^ * (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) GDP/cap t ** 0.02** 0.02** 0.02** 0.02** 0.02** DGDP/cap 0.00* 0.00* 0.00* 0.00* 0.00* 0.00* PopDensity t * * * Openness InfMort t ** 0.02** 0.02** 0.02** 0.02** 0.02** (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) DInfMort t ** 0.57** 0.55** 0.57** 0.55** 0.57** (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) (0.04) Constant 0.22** 0.22** 0.20** 0.20** 0.23** 0.23** (0.05) (0.06) (0.05) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) N Countries R Table I. Random-effects OLS model with panel-clustered standard errors. The dependent variable is D InfMort t : the change in the log infant mortality rate from the previous period to the current period. All models include time-period dummy variables to capture worldwide trends. Openness is measured as the degree of trade openness from the Penn World Tables (Heston et al. 2011).
10 Table J: Democracy, State Capacity, and Various Development Indicators (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) LifeExp Measles DPT Water Hospitals Democracy t ** 6.30** 6.23** (0.24) (2.36) (2.22) (0.37) (0.24) StateCapac t ** 9.30* 8.36* * (0.47) (4.40) (4.04) (0.76) (0.39) Democ t 1 StateCapac t ** 4.10** 2.95* ^ (0.15) (1.39) (1.36) (0.22) (0.17) GDP/cap t ** 1.98** 1.41** ** (0.08) (0.43) (0.53) (0.10) (0.06) DGDP/cap (0.01) (0.20) (0.23) (0.02) (0.02) PopDensity t * 0.87* (0.03) (0.45) (0.36) (0.05) (0.05) y t ** 0.35** 0.34** 0.04** 0.11** (0.01) (0.04) (0.04) (0.01) (0.02) Dy t ** 0.09** 0.07* 0.75** 0.15* (0.06) (0.04) (0.03) (0.03) (0.06) Constant 1.40** 7.70^ 12.89** 1.90** 1.71** (0.28) (4.25) (4.04) (0.60) (0.61) N Countries R Table J. Error-Correction Model with standard errors (in parentheses). The dependent variables are the five-year changes in life expectancy, measles immunization, DPT immunization, the % of population with access to an improved water source, and hospital beds per 1,000. All models include time-period dummy variables to capture worldwide trends.
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