Survey of Public Opinion South Sudan s Greater Equatoria Region. May 21-June 15, 2012

Transcription

1 Survey of Public Opinion South Sudan s Greater Equatoria Region May 21-June 15, 2012

2 Survey Methodology The International Republican Institute (IRI) undertook a poll in the three states of South Sudan s Greater Equatoria region which includes the states of Central Equatoria, Eastern Equatoria and Western Equatoria. Analysis, supervision and execution of the poll was performed by Opinion Research Business (ORB), an international opinion research firm. Fieldwork management was done by Samahi Research, a private South Sudanese research consultancy. Data was collected via face-to-face interviews from May 21 - June 15, The population studied was adults ages 18 and older. A representative random sample was designed based on the latest population estimates reported in the 2010 Statistical Yearbook for South Sudan. The survey employed probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling methodology. The population of Greater Equatoria was stratified by county. Enumeration areas within each county were selected using PPS; households within each enumeration area were then identified using a random walk method and a skip pattern; respondents were randomly chosen within households using a Kish grid. Every other interview was conducted with a female to achieve 50 percent gender parity. The questionnaire was offered in Juba Arabic, English, Bari, Zande and Toposa. 2

3 Survey Methodology The margin of error is +/- 2.5 percent. The margin of error for subsets (i.e. tribes/age/education, etc.) is significantly higher and should be treated as indicative only. This report contains Greater Equatoria data from IRI's September 2011 poll to provide comparison. The margin of error for the September 2011 data is +/- 3.7 percent, unless otherwise stated. The overall response rate (defined as the number of successful interviews divided by eligible houses visited) is 57 percent. To complete 1,547 interviews, 2,698 households were contacted. Due to rounding and multiple response questions, not all percentages add up to 100. Unless otherwise stated, all questions N=1,547. Because the survey met key demographic indicators (state/county) and quotas (gender), no weighting was necessary during data analysis The poll was conducted with funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development. 3

4 Survey Methodology Survey statistics: Sample equals 1,547 interviews; Survey margin of error +/- 2.5% State Sample Size Percent Margin of Error Central Equatoria % 3.9% Western Equatoria % 4.9% Eastern Equatoria % 4.3% TOTAL 1, % 4

5 General Environment

6 Do you feel that South Sudan is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? 6 Greater Equatoria By State 5 49% 5 Western Equatoria 44% 56% Eastern Equatoria 31% 67% Central Equatoria 38% 61% 6 8 Right direction Wrong direction Right direction Wrong direction 6

7 Why do you say that the country is heading in the right direction? Open-ended, Top 9 Responses, N=760 Independence/separation/freedom 6 Education Democracy/political rights Infrastructure/roads Don't know/no response Health Crime and security Political instability/divisions or ethnic tensions Gender issues/women's rights 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% This question was pre-coded with 36 possible responses. Only responses with frequencies of 1% of the total sample are included above. 7

8 Why do you say that the country is heading in the wrong direction? Open-ended, Top 13 Responses, N=771 Management of the economy Political instability/division or ethnic tensions Unemployment Corruption Poverty or destitution Civil war Food shortage or famine War/international Infrstructure or roads Discrimination or inequality Crime and security Education Don't know/no response 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 9% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% This question was pre-coded with 36 possible responses. Only responses with frequencies of 4% of the total sample are included above. 8

9 What do you think is the most important problem facing this country? Food shortage or famine Management of the economy Corruption Education Poverty or destitution Political instability/division or ethnic tension Unemployment Crime and security Infrastructure or roads War/international Health 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 1st Response 2nd Response 2% 4% 6% 8% 12% This question was pre-coded with 36 possible responses. Only responses with frequencies of 4% (1 st response) of the total sample are included above. 9

10 What do you think is the most important problem facing your state? Infrastructure or roads 7% 12% Food shortage or famine 8% Education 6% 9% Unemployment 7% 8% Water supply Corruption 5% 5% 6% 6% 1st Response 2nd Response Health 5% Transportation Poverty or destitution Crime and security 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 2% 4% 6% 8% 12% 14% This question was pre-coded with 36 possible responses. Only responses with frequencies of 3% (1 st response) or 4% (2 nd response) of the total sample are included. 10

11 What do you think is the most important problem facing your state? Sum of First and Second Responses, by State Health Education Unemployment Water supply Infrastructure or roads Food shortage or famine Corruption Transportation Poverty or destitution Crime and security 2% 15% 12% 17% 16% 13% 17% 16% 17% 11% 16% 17% 14% 15% 11% 6% 11% 4% 7% 6% 8% 15% 7% 24% 25% Western Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Central Equatoria 5% 15% 25% 11

12 What do you think is the biggest issue or concern that most impacts your daily life or family? Food shortage or famine 17% 16% Poverty or destitution 9% 12% Sickness or disease 11% Unemployment Education 6% 6% 7% 9% 1st Response 2nd Response Health 6% 7% Wages/incomes/salaries 3% 5% Water supply 4% 8% 2% 4% 6% 8% 12% 14% 16% 18% This question was pre-coded with 36 possible responses. Only responses with frequencies of 3% of the total sample are included above. 12

13 What do you think is the biggest issue or concern that most impacts your daily life or family? Sum of First and Second Responses, by State Food shortage or famine Poverty or destitution Sickness or disease Water supply Unemployment Health Wages/incomes/salaries Education 24% 22% 24% 19% 18% 17% 12% 9% 14% 16% 16% 13% 11% 14% 9% 8% 7% 8% 31% 33% 33% Western Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Central Equatoria % 5% 15% 25% 35% 13

14 Generally speaking, do you think Equatorians are better off or worse off than South Sudanese who live in other regions? % Much worse Somewhat worse Somewhat better Much better 26% 12% 14

15 Economy

16 Do you feel that the economy of South Sudan is generally heading in the right direction or the wrong direction? Greater Equatoria By State % Western Equatoria 6% 93% 6 5 Eastern Equatoria 75% 14% Central Equatoria 14% 85% Right direction Wrong direction Right direction Wrong direction 16

17 Why do you think that the economy is heading in the right direction/wrong direction? Open-ended Right Direction Top 6 Responses, N-211 Wrong Direction Top 5 Responses, N=1,293 Trade Employment 5% Infrastructure 7% Stability 35% Poverty Employment 5% Development 7% Inflation Resource Management Resource Mismanagement 23% Development 16% 17

18 Thinking about your local market, would you say there are more goods, less goods or about the same amount of goods available now compared to this time last year? 8 Greater Equatoria By State 7 6 Western Equatoria 1% 17% 82% % 6% More goods Less goods About the same 16% Eastern Equatoria 61% 21% 2% Central Equatoria 69% 28% About the same Less goods More goods 18

19 Thinking about your local market, would you say goods are more expensive, less expensive or about the same price now as compared to this time last year? Greater Equatoria By State % Western Equatoria 1% 1% 98% Eastern Equatoria 1% 1% 97% 3% 1% Central Equatoria 1% 7% 92% More expensive Less expensive About the same price Less expensive About the same price More expensive 19

20 Thinking about your local market, do you think there will be more goods, less goods or about the same amount of goods available six months from now? 45% Greater Equatoria By State Western Equatoria 17% 42% 35% 25% Eastern Equatoria 14% 33% 41% 39% 32% 15% Central Equatoria 6% 41% 5% 12% 49% 5 6 More goods Less goods About the same About the same Less goods More goods 20

21 Thinking about your local market, do you think that goods will be more expensive, less expensive or about the same price six months from now? 7 Greater Equatoria By State % Western Equatoria 8% 27% 65% Eastern Equatoria 4% 14% 64% 24% Central Equatoria 6% 31% 59% 6% 6 8 More expensive Less expensive About the same price Less expensive About the same price More expensive 21

22 Thinking about the amount of money your family spends per month, please tell me which of the following phrases best suits your household situation? Do you think your household will have more income, less income or about the same amount of income six months from now? % 71% 51% 17% 1% 1% Unable to meet basic needs Able to meet basic needs Able to meet basic needs with some non-essential goods Able to purchase most non-essential goods Plenty of disposable money 12% 6 About the same Less income More income 22

23 Provision of Services

24 Various development projects or programs are being implemented in different areas of the country. In the past year, have you heard of any project or program in this location for the following? Building roads and bridges 5 5 Water for drinking (building boreholes) 37% 62% Health services 36% 63% Education (school opening/teachers) Disarmament 38% 34% 61% 64% Yes No Agricultural services (provision of seeds/training) 35% 63% Child protection 22% 76%

25 Who do you think was primarily responsible for providing that project? Local government, state government, national government, foreign organizations or somebody else? Local government State government National government Foreign organizations Other A. Building roads and bridges N=771 8% 29% 28% 27% 2% B. Water for drinking (building boreholes) N=966 9% 17% 13% 52% 2% C. Health services N=970 6% 22% 25% 41% 2% D. Education (school opening, teachers) N=947 8% 33% 28% 23% 5% E. Disarmament N=531 6% 19% 59% 13% <1% F. Agricultural services (provision of seeds, training) N=546 8% 18% 17% 49% 3% G. Child protection N=337 6% 17% 15% 52% 3% 25

26 Have you ever heard about the Constituency Development Fund (CDF)? 7 Greater Equatoria By State 6 Western Equatoria 46% 54% 5 Yes Eastern Equatoria 25% 75% 66% No 34% Central Equatoria 34% 66%

27 Are you aware of any CDF projects in your area? N=523 7 What type of project is going on in your area? Only Respondents that Answered Yes to Previous Question, N=332 6 Building a school 43% 5 Building a road 19% Building a health facility 11% 64% Providing agricultural services 8% 34% Building a borehole 6% Building a bridge 6% Yes No 5 27

28 Please tell me whether you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the following statements. The CDF in my constituency is managed in a transparent and open way. N=523 6 The CDF has had a large impact on my constituency. N= % 5 24% 32% 38% 22% 15% 16% 16% Agree Disagree Agree Disagree Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree 28

29 Each constituency has a committee that manages the CDF. In your opinion, who do you think should have the responsibility to manage the CDF? N= % 5 People elected by the community 4% Tribal chiefs County commissioner Payam administrator 2% 2% Your state representative Your national representative 29

30 Do you support the national government s decision to stop oil production? What do you think was the primary source of income for the national government last year? 6 5 8% 53% 49% 43% Yes No 17% 15% 5 6 Customs/tariffs Sale of oil Foreign donors Tax revenues 30

31 Do you think the government s decision to stop oil production will affect the amount of services it can provide? % Yes No 15% 31

32 Why do you think the government s decision to stop oil production will/will not affect the amount of services it can provide? Will Not Affect Will Affect N=234 N=1,178 No affect 7% Oil money benefits North 6% Fuel/commodity shortages 3% No development 11% Oil preserved for future 9% Development of other sectors of economy 19% Foreign aid and other revenue 51% Education funding cuts 3% Inflation No revenue 43% 32

33 Attitudes towards Government

34 How satisfied are you with the performance of your state government in the following areas? Please tell me whether you are very satisfied, satisfied, not satisfied or not at all satisfied. Building roads and bridges 5% 28% 46% Providing education 7% 41% 11% Improving the healthcare system 5% 34% 47% 13% Very satisfied Satisfied Reducing conflict/insecurity 11% 44% 14% Not satisfied Creating job opportunities 2% 11% 47% 36% Not at all satisfied Fighting corruption 5% 12% 43% 34%

35 How satisfied are you with the performance of your state government in the following areas? By State Central Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Western Equatoria Building roads and bridges Satisfied 37% 26% 37% Not satisfied 62% 73% 63% Providing education Satisfied 51% 41% 48% Improving the healthcare system Not satisfied 48% 58% 52% Satisfied 43% 32% 44% Not satisfied 56% 67% 55% Reducing conflict/insecurity Satisfied 54% 38% 78% Not satisfied 43% 61% 22% Creating job opportunities Satisfied 15% 8% 15% Not satisfied 82% 89% 8 Fighting corruption Satisfied 18% 11% 25% Not satisfied 77% 84% 71% 35

36 Now, I m going to read you a list of institutions and individuals. For each one, please tell me whether you think very favorably, favorably, unfavorably or very unfavorably about them. South Sudanese armed forces 41% 12% 4% The president 34% 46% 13% 5% County commissioners 24% 44% 18% 7% Your state's governor 24% 43% 23% 7% The national assembly Your state's assembly 16% 15% 49% 43% 22% 28% 7% 9% Very favorably Favorably Unfavorably The police 12% 48% 27% Very unfavorably Judges and the courts 44% 27% 11% Women politicians 44% 23% 13% Opposition political parties 5% 26% 35% 17%

37 Now, I m going to read you a list of institutions and individuals. For each one, please tell me whether you think very favorably, favorably, unfavorably or very unfavorably about them. By State Central Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Western Equatoria The president Favorably 77% 78% 85% Unfavorably 21% 14% County commissioners Favorably 58% 7 84% Unfavorably 35% 22% 14% Your state's assembly Favorably 43% 66% 7 Unfavorably 49% 28% 29% Women politicians Favorably 46% 56% 61% Unfavorably 45% 31% 28% Opposition political parties Favorably 28% 29% 39% Unfavorably 58% 49% 36% Favorably = Very favorably + Favorably Unfavorably = Very unfavorably + Unfavorably 37

38 Now, I m going to read you a list of institutions and individuals. For each one, please tell me whether you think very favorably, favorably, unfavorably or very unfavorably about them Your State Governor % 43% 42% 9% 29% 39% 15% 12% Very unfavorably Unfavorably Favorably Very favorably % 7% Central Equatoria 9% 2% Eastern Equatoria Western Equatoria 38

39 Please tell me whether you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with the following statements. I don t think the government cares much about what people like me think. 7 6 It is generally not acceptable to talk negatively about the government in public % 5 33% 23% 31% Agree 22% 9% Disagree 26% Agree 16% Disagree Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree 39

40 Overall, how satisfied are you with the performance of the different levels of government in South Sudan? For each level, please tell me whether you are very satisfied, satisfied, not satisfied or not at all satisfied. National government 21% 52% 18% 6% Very satisfied Satisfied State government 18% 48% 26% 5% Not satisfied Not at all satisfied Local government 5 23% 5%

41 Overall, how satisfied are you with the performance of the different levels of government in South Sudan? For each level, please tell me whether you are very satisfied, satisfied, not satisfied or not at all satisfied. By State Central Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Western Equatoria National government Satisfied 64% 74% 83% Not satisfied 34% 21% 13% State government Satisfied 53% 7 82% Not satisfied 44% 26% 16% Local government Satisfied 61% 72% 83% Not satisfied 38% 25% 16% Satisfied = Very satisfied + Satisfied Not satisfied = Very unsatisfied + Unsatisfied 41

42 Do you think Equatorians are fairly represented in the national government? Do you think different tribal groups are fairly represented in the national government? % 69% 27% 26% Yes No Yes No 42

43 Security

44 Over the last year, would you say that security in South Sudan has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same? 8 Greater Equatoria By State 7 Western Equatoria 27% 46% 7% 17% 2% % Eastern Equatoria 18% 6 15% 5% 1% 22% 12% Central Equatoria 21% 54% 16% 7% 1% 9% 1% 25% 5 75% 10 Much better Somewhat better Somewhat worse Much worse Stayed the same 44

45 Over the last year, would you say that security in South Sudan has gotten better, worse, or stayed the same? 13% 9% 1% 54% 22% 13% 15% 5% 49% 16% Much worse Somewhat worse Stayed the same Somewhat better Much better 45

46 In some areas of South Sudan, violence is a major concern for people. What type of violence concerns you the most in your daily life? 25% 16% 13% 11% 9% 9% 9% Cattle raiding Local crime Domestic crime I am not affected by any kind of violence Gender violence Conflict between two parties or ethnic groups Invasion from foreign armies 3% 2% Other Armed militias or terrorists 46

47 In some areas of South Sudan, violence is a major concern for people. What type of violence concerns you the most in your daily life? By State Local crime Domestic crime Gender violence Cattle raiding Conflict between two parties or ethnic groups Armed militias or terrorists Invasion from foreign armies I am not affected by any kind of violence Other 14% 16% 18% 16% 11% 14% 8% 7% 12% 5% 19% 6% 11% 9% 2% 2% 3% 27% 1% 4% 16% 5% 13% 6% 1% 4% 47% 5 Western Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Central Equatoria 47

48 How satisfied are you with the government s efforts to resolve local conflicts in different areas of this country? 6 Greater Equatoria By State 5 Western Equatoria 17% 55% 15% 47% Eastern Equatoria 4% 43% 11% 7% 14% Central Equatoria 4% 45% 31% 18% Very satisfied Satisfied Unsatisfied Not at all satisfied 48

49 Constitutional Issues

50 Have you ever read, seen or heard about the % 64% Yes No 28% Transitional Constitution of the Republic of South Sudan Transitional Constitution of (your state) 50

51 Have you ever read, seen or heard about the Transitional Constitution of your state? By State % % % Yes No 63% 44% Central Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Western Equatoria 51

52 Thinking about current political developments in Juba, have you heard about the national constitutional process to draft a permanent constitution for South Sudan? Greater Equatoria By State % 6% 28% % 5 63% 85% 68% Yes No 21% Yes No Central Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Western Equatoria 52

53 In your opinion, should the President of South Sudan have the power to remove from office any of the following officials in the event of a crisis? % 47% 42% 55% Yes No Your state governor Your state assembly 53

54 Do you think that the following positions should be elected or appointed? % 75% Elected Appointed 24% County commissioner Payam administrator * 54 *Similar to a district administrator

55 Political Parties

56 Why do you say that (you are satisfied/not satisfied with the SPLM s performance)? Very satisfied/satisfied N=1,122 Unsatisfied/Very unsatisfied N=390 Development 6% Economy 1% Governance 12% Peace, Independence 53% Economy 12% Corruption 17% Security 23% Peace, Independence 3% Security 21% Gender Equality 3% Governance 22% Development 15% 56

57 10 How many political parties do you think there are in South Sudan? Open-ended, Top 7 Responses 1% When thinking about political parties, do you think there are currently too many, too few, or just the right amount? 37% 6 2% 5 5% 26% 4 5% 3 9% 2 11% 12% 1 31% Too many Too few Just the right amount 57

58 How favorable are you towards the following political parties? For each one, please tell me whether you think very favorably, favorably, unfavorably or very unfavorably about them. SPLM 39% 13% 2% 6% South Sudan Democratic Forum 4% 13% 27% 14% 36% SPLM-Democratic Change (DC) 3% 14% 27% 18% 33% United Democratic Salvation Front-Mainstream 3% 8% 28% 14% United South Sudan Party 3% 9% 27% 15% 39% United Democratic Front 3% 17% 32% 11% 33% Sudan African National Union 2% 28% 16% 38% United Sudan African Party 2% 8% 29% 16% 39% African National Congress 2% 11% 27% 15% 38% United Democratic Salvation Front 2% 12% 14% 37% Very favorably Favorably Unfavorably Very unfavorably Don't know 58

59 Do you think the current representation of political parties in national government should be higher, lower or stay the same? Do you think the current representation of political parties in state government should be higher, lower or stay the same? 35% 37% 35% 36% 25% 23% 25% 24% 15% 18% 15% 18% 5% 5% Higher Lower Stay the same Higher Lower Stay the same 59

60 Are you a member of a political party? Greater Equatoria By State % 44% 55% 47% 5 Yes No 5 Yes No 5 47% 44% Central Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Western Equatoria 60

61 If you are a member of a political party, which party? Open-ended, Top 7 Responses, N= SPLM No response SPLM-DC National Congress Party Democratic Unionist Party South Sudan Democratic Forum United Democratic Front 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 61

62 Demographics

63 Gender Age Education Male Female 45% 28% 15% 7% and older Religion and older 5 1% 1% 27% 38% 26% Christian Muslim No school Only primary school Only secondary school 4% 2% University Complete Still in university 94% Other 63

64 What is your present occupation? Open-ended, Top 8 Responses 25% 25% Farmer Unemployed Self-employed (small business) 15% 17% Housewife/homemaker Student Civil servant/government 11% 11% Herder Nongovernmental organization 5% 7% 6% 5% 3% 64

65 What is your primary source of news and information? % 6 5 Radio Community meetings (village/tribal chief) Word of mouth Television SMS/cell phone Other 12% 11% 2% 1% 1% 65

66 Which radio station do you listen to most often for news and information? Open-ended, Top 10 Responses Only Don t Know/No Response Filtered out Central Equatoria N=536 Miraya FM 55% Eastern Equatoria N=294 Miraya FM Western Equatoria N=357 Yambio FM 45% Voice of Kajokeji 13% Voice of Eastern Equatoria 13% Miraya FM 24% Radio Juba, SSR 8% BBC No Radio 13% Spirit FM 7% Nehemiah Trumpet Call 7% Radio Juba, SSR 5% Radio Easter 4% Sudan Radio Service 4% Bakhita FM 2% BBC Radio 2% Liberty FM 1% Torit FM 6% Radio Juba, SSR 6% Sudan Radio Service 6% Freedom FM 4% No Radio 4% Maridi FM 4% BBC Radio 4% Sudan Radio 3% Radio Anisa 1% Bakhita FM 66

67 How often do you get your news and information from the following sources? Never Less than once a month A few times a week Everyday Radio 22% 2% 17% 57% SMS/mobile phone 74% 3% 12% 9% Newspapers 8 5% 11% 3% Television 8 5% 5% Internet 87% 2% 5% 3% 67

68 Do you own a mobile phone? Greater Equatoria 10 9 By State 6 39% Yes No % 72% 66% No Yes 52% 26% 34% Central Equatoria Eastern Equatoria Western Equatoria 68

69 About the Interview The following questions were answered by the interviewer after successful completion of the interview. They provide details about how the interview was conducted.

70 The respondent The respondent was 10 5% 10 3% % 44% Had difficulty understanding most of the questions Understood most of the questions with help Understood most of the questions % 42% Generally uncomfortable with the survey questionnaire Comfortable with only some of the questions Comfortable with most of the questions 29% Understood all of the questions 33% Comfortable with the entire questionnaire 70

71 Interview Setting Did you feel threatened or were you threatened during this interview? 1% 98% Were you approached by security agents during this interview? 1% 99% Were you approached by a community leader, government official or political party representative during the interview? 1% 98% Yes No Do you think anyone influenced the respondent's answers during the interview? 2% 98% Did the respondent check with others for information to answer any question? 2% 97%

72 What language did you use for this questionnaire? 37% 25% 15% 12% English Juba Arabic Zande Bari Toposa 72

73 Were portions of this questionnaire translated into any other language? 10 If yes, which language was it translated to? N= % 38% % 9% 8% Yes No 5% 5% Madi Moru Lopit Acholi Pari 73