Hurricane Irma Page 1 Description of impact to Tampa, FL, Tampa, FL, is expected to receive a major impact from Hurricane Irma. The forecast maximum wind for this location has decreased since the last forecast advisory by 3 s Northeasterly gale force should start affecting the area on Sunday, September 10th at 9 AM EDT with storm force arriving around 5 PM EDT and Northeasterly hurricane force arriving near 8 PM EDT. The highest wind speeds from Hurricane Irma should occur near 11 PM EDT when top sustained, from the Northeast, could reach 107 s with gusts near 129 s. Based on the current forecast, there is a good chance that Tampa, FL will experience the eye wall of the storm, with the passage of the eye on Monday, September 11th at 12 AM EDT. This could result in higher wind speeds than expected. In addition, if this is a coastal location, storm surge levels may be at their highest. Winds should decrease below hurricane force 4 hours later. Sustained will fall below gale force after 12 PM EDT and generally be from the Southwest during this period of decreasing. Expect gusts above gale force level for several more hours thereafter. Wind from Hurricane Irma will likely be extensive with many roofs removed and collapse of many exterior and some interior walls. The total rainfall for the Tampa, FL area over the next 5 days is forecast to be 9. inches. This can vary significantly as tropical storm and hurricane rainfall is very difficult to predict. Latest Position: 293 nm. South (159 degrees) of Tampa, FL, Latitude Longitude Motion (s) Wind Speed (s) Central Pressure (mb) 64 NE 64 SE 64 SW 23.4-80.5 317/8 110 933 60 60 30 60 100 90 50 80 160 160 120 170 18 9 64 NW Wind Probabilities for Tampa, FL, 34 Knots (39 mph) 50 Knots (58 mph) 64 Knots (74 mph) 99.4 95.6 86 50 NE 50 SE 50 SW 50 NW 34 NE 34 SE 34 SW 34 NW Eye diam Eye wall Surge Probabilities for Tampa, FL, (.09 nm. South) Hurricane Irma Page 1
Hurricane Irma Page 2 5 Foot Storm Surge 10 Foot Storm Surge 15 Foot Storm Surge 20 Foot Storm Surge 18% 4% 1% 0% Hurricane Irma Page 2
Hurricane Irma Page 3 Forecast Impact Summary for Tampa, FL, Max Wind (avg/gust) Max Wind Date/Time CPA Rain Arr. hrs. Time of arrival Time of departure Dur ation 107 / 129 s. Sunday, 09/10/2017 23:00 EDT 4 nm. 9.0" 34 16 09/10/2017 09:00 EDT 09/11/2017 12:30 EDT 28 50 24 09/10/2017 17:00 EDT 09/11/2017 06:00 EDT 14 64 27 09/10/2017 20:00 EDT 09/11/2017 03:30 EDT 8 Hurricane Irma Page 3
Hurricane Irma Page 4 Forecast Impact Detail Date / Time Time of Day Wind Speed (avg/gust) Wind Dir. (degs.) to 34 to 50 to 64 to center Comments Sunday, 09/10/2017 04:30 EDT NIGHT 025/030 s 050 0046 0128 0158 0218 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 05:00 EDT NIGHT 026/031 s 051 0041 0123 0153 0213 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 05:30 EDT NIGHT 027/033 s 051 0036 0118 0149 0209 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 06:00 EDT NIGHT 028/034 s 051 0032 0114 0145 0205 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 06:30 EDT NIGHT 029/035 s 051 0027 0109 0141 0201 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 07:00 EDT DAY 030/036 s 051 0021 0104 0136 0196 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 07:30 EDT DAY 031/037 s 051 0016 0099 0132 0192 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 08:00 EDT DAY 032/039 s 052 0011 0095 0128 0188 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 08:30 EDT DAY 033/040 s 052 0006 0090 0124 0184 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 09:00 EDT DAY 034/041 s 052 0001 0085 0119 0179 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 09:30 EDT DAY 035/042 s 052 0080 0115 0175 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 10:00 EDT DAY 036/0 s 052 0076 0111 0171 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 10:30 EDT DAY 037/045 s 053 0071 0107 0167 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 11:00 EDT DAY 038/046 s 053 0066 0102 0162 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 11:30 EDT DAY 039/047 s 053 0061 0098 0158 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 12:00 EDT DAY 040/048 s 053 0057 0094 0154 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 12:30 EDT DAY 041/049 s 054 0052 0090 0150 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 13:00 EDT DAY 041/050 s 054 0047 0085 0145 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 13:30 EDT DAY 042/051 s 054 0042 0081 0141 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 14:00 EDT DAY 0/052 s 055 0037 0077 0137 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 14:30 EDT DAY 044/054 s 055 0031 0070 0130 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 15:00 EDT DAY 046/055 s 055 0024 0064 0124 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 15:30 EDT DAY 047/057 s 055 0017 0057 0117 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 16:00 EDT DAY 048/058 s 055 0010 0050 0110 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 16:30 EDT DAY 049/060 s 055 0004 0044 0104 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 17:00 EDT DAY 051/062 s 055 0037 0097 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 17:30 EDT DAY 053/065 s 055 0031 0091 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 18:00 EDT DAY 055/067 s 056 0024 0084 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 18:30 EDT DAY 058/070 s 056 0017 0077 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 19:00 EDT DAY 060/073 s 056 0011 0071 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 19:30 EDT DAY 063/076 s 056 0004 0064 Minor Sunday, 09/10/2017 20:00 EDT NIGHT 064/078 s 057 0057 Minimal Sunday, 09/10/2017 20:30 EDT NIGHT 066/080 s 057 0051 Minimal Sunday, 09/10/2017 21:00 EDT NIGHT 071/086 s 057 0044 Minimal Sunday, 09/10/2017 21:30 EDT NIGHT 077/093 s 058 0038 Minimal Sunday, 09/10/2017 22:00 EDT NIGHT 086/103 s 059 0031 Moderate Sunday, 09/10/2017 22:30 EDT NIGHT 096/116 s 061 0024 Extensive Sunday, 09/10/2017 23:00 EDT NIGHT 107/129 s 064 0018 * Eye Wall *, Extensive Sunday, 09/10/2017 23:30 EDT NIGHT 106/128 s 087 0011 * Eye Wall *, Extensive Monday, 09/11/2017 00:00 EDT NIGHT 000/000 s 000 0005 * Eye * Monday, 09/11/2017 00:30 EDT NIGHT 000/000 s 000 0004 * Eye * Hurricane Irma Page 4
Hurricane Irma Page 5 Date / Time Time of Day Wind Speed (avg/gust) Wind Dir. (degs.) to 34 to 50 to 64 to center Comments Monday, 09/11/2017 01:00 EDT NIGHT 102/123 s 238 0009 * Eye Wall *, Extensive Monday, 09/11/2017 01:30 EDT NIGHT 101/122 s 228 0016 * Eye Wall *, Extensive Monday, 09/11/2017 02:00 EDT NIGHT 091/110 s 226 0022 Moderate Monday, 09/11/2017 02:30 EDT NIGHT 077/093 s 225 0030 Minimal Monday, 09/11/2017 03:00 EDT NIGHT 068/082 s 225 0038 Minimal Monday, 09/11/2017 03:30 EDT NIGHT 064/078 s 225 0046 Minimal Monday, 09/11/2017 04:00 EDT NIGHT 062/075 s 225 0008 0053 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 04:30 EDT NIGHT 059/072 s 225 0017 0061 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 05:00 EDT NIGHT 056/068 s 225 0026 0069 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 05:30 EDT NIGHT 053/065 s 225 0035 0076 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 06:00 EDT NIGHT 050/060 s 225 0045 0084 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 06:30 EDT NIGHT 049/059 s 225 0010 0054 0092 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 07:00 EDT DAY 047/057 s 225 0022 0064 0100 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 07:30 EDT DAY 046/055 s 225 0032 0072 0107 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 08:00 EDT DAY 044/054 s 225 00 0081 0115 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 08:30 EDT DAY 0/052 s 225 0054 0091 0123 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 09:00 EDT DAY 042/051 s 225 0065 0100 0130 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 09:30 EDT DAY 041/049 s 225 0076 0109 0138 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 10:00 EDT DAY 039/048 s 225 0087 0119 0146 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 10:30 EDT DAY 038/046 s 225 0097 0128 0153 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 11:00 EDT DAY 037/045 s 225 0109 0137 0161 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 11:30 EDT DAY 036/0 s 225 0120 0146 0169 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 12:00 EDT DAY 035/042 s 225 0130 0155 0176 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 12:30 EDT DAY 034/041 s 225 0002 0141 0164 0184 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 13:00 EDT DAY 033/040 s 225 0011 0152 0174 0192 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 13:30 EDT DAY 032/038 s 225 0020 0164 0184 0200 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 14:00 EDT DAY 031/037 s 225 0030 0174 0192 0207 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 14:30 EDT DAY 029/036 s 225 0040 0182 0206 0214 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 15:00 EDT DAY 028/034 s 224 0050 0191 0219 0220 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 15:30 EDT DAY 027/032 s 223 0062 0199 0227 Minor Monday, 09/11/2017 16:00 EDT DAY 026/031 s 223 0072 0208 0234 Minor Hurricane Irma Page 5
Hurricane Irma Page 6 NHC Public Advisory CORRECTED ADVISORY TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 Corrected to remove mention of Hurricane Watch along the Florida panhandle...eye OF IRMA BEGINNING TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF CUBA WHILE WEATHER IS DETERIORATING IN SOUTH FLORIDA......MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AT DAYBREAK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 80.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF VARADERO CUBA ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from the Volusia/Brevard County Line northward to the South Santee River. The Hurricane Watch west of the Aucilla River to Indian Pass has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning, and the Tropical Storm Watch west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River. The government of Cuba has discontinued the watches and warnings for Holguin and Las Tunas provinces. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... South Santee River southward around the Florida peninsula to the Suwanee River Florida Keys Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... North of the Suwanee River to Ochlockonee River Hurricane Irma Page 6
Hurricane Irma Page 7 NHC Public Advisory A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass Florida Keys Lake Okeechobee Florida Bay Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Matanzas, and Havana Andros Island, Bimini and Grand Bahama A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast Hurricane Irma Page 7
Hurricane Irma Page 8 NHC Public Advisory office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwest motion is expected to begin tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to move near the north coast of Cuba during the next few hours, and will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon. Maximum sustained are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida. Hurricane-force extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International airport recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Sable to Captiva...10 to 15 ft Captiva to Ana Maria Island...6 to 10 ft Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys... 5 to 10 ft Ana Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay... 5 to 8 ft North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay... 4 to 6 ft South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft Fernandina Beach to North Miami Beach...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore, where the surge will be accompanied by large and Hurricane Irma Page 8
Hurricane Irma Page 9 NHC Public Advisory destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba through tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas tonight, and in portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Sunday morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. The eastern Florida Panhandle and southern South Carolina...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches. In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and, in some areas, mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight over south Florida, expanding northward into central Florida on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast coast of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. Hurricane Irma Page 9
Hurricane Irma Page 10 NHC Public Advisory Forecaster Avila Hurricane Irma Page 10