Climate Forecasting the Southwest Pacific experience Dr Jim Salinger, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Auckland, New Zealand
Climate Prediction in the South Pacific The Island Climate Update
Climate Prediction in the South Pacific Observations and Forecast Guidance Multinational Collaboration The Seasonal Outlook Validation Applications Conclusions
Climate Prediction Procedure Climatology Background Observations EXPERT ASSESSMENT Products Forecasts
ENSO Climatology : El Niño and La Niña (ENSO): El Niño La Niña Warmer in tropics Cooler in much of SW Pacific NE movement of SPCZ Eastward extension of TC region Sea temperature difference from average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Cooler in tropics Warmer in much o SW Pacific SW movement of SPCZ
ENSO Climatology : El Niño and La Niña (ENSO):
Climatology Tropical Cyclone Risk 0 o 20 o S 40 o S 120 o E 150 o E 180 o 150 o W 120 o W 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
utgoing ongwave adiation Climate Outlook: Observations
Climate Outlook: ENSO Guidance Summary of main seasonal ENSO model results Climate Model or Group JFM 2005 AMJ 2005 JAS 2005 POAMA (Australia) Warm Neutral Neutral CPC CCA (USA) Warm Warm Neutral COLA (USA) Neutral Neutral Unavailable ECMWF (UK) Neutral Neutral Unavailable LDEO(4) (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral NCEP (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral NOAA Linear Inverse (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral SCRIPPS/MPI (USA/FRG) Warm Neutral Neutral NASA-NSIPP (USA) Warm Neutral Neutral JMA (Japan) Warm Warm Unavailable SSES (Ohio, USA) Neutral Neutral Unavailable CLIPER (USA) Neutral Neutral Neutral
Melbourne, Noumea, Auckland, Wellington, Nadi, Papeete, Honolulu, Washington, New York Multinational Collaboration Sources of South Pacific rainfall data American Samoa, Australia, Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, Kiribati, New Zealand, New Caledonia, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Pitcairn Island, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu Involvement from: SOPAC New Zealand Agency for International Development South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, SPREP WMO Sub Regional Office, Apia Australian Bureau of Meteorology Meteo France Fiji Meteorological Service NOAA National Weather Service, Honolulu NOAA Climate Prediction Center International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, IRICP Monthly teleconference:
Last Month s Climate Outgoing long-wave radiation anomalies for December 2004 Caroline Is Marshall Is Papua New-Guinea Nauru W Kiribati E Kiribati Line Is EQUATOR ainfall nd OLR nomalies Australia Solomon Is Vanuatu New Caledonia Tuvalu Fiji Wallis & Futuna Tonga Rawaki Is Tokelau Is Samoa Niue N Cook Is Marquesas Is Tuamotu Is Society Is S Cook Is Pitcairn Austral Is ec 2004 New Zealand -30-20 -10 10 20 30
Sea Temperatures surface temperature anomalies (C) for December 2004 Caroline Is a New-Guinea Nauru Solomon Is Marshall Is W Kiribati Rawaki Is E Kiribati Tuvalu Tokelau Is Wallis & Futuna Samoa Line Is N Cook Is Tuamotu Is EQUATOR Marquesas Is Mean sea surface temperatures (C) for December 2004 Marshall Is Caroline Is W Kiribati Papua New-Guinea Nauru Solomon Is Tuvalu E Kiribati Line Is Rawaki Is Tokelau Is N Cook Is Wallis & Futuna Samoa EQUATO Marquesas Is Tuamotu Is stralia Vanuatu New Caledonia Fiji Tonga Niue S Cook Is Society Is Austral Is Pitcairn Australia Vanuatu New Caledonia Fiji Tonga Niue S Cook Is Society Is Austral Is Pitcai New Zealand New Zealand -2.0-1.5-1.0-0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Anomalies December 2004 Actual
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook Rainfall outlook map for Jan-Mar 2005 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook Marshall Is Caroline Is NO FORECAST W Kiribati Papua New-Guinea Nauru Australia NO FORECAST Solomon Is Vanuatu BELOW New Caledonia Tuvalu Fiji Wallis & Futuna ABOVE E Kiribati Tonga Rawaki Is Tokelau Is Samoa Niue Line Is EQUATOR BELOW N Cook Is Marquesas Is Tuamotu Is Society Is S Cook Is Pitcairn Austral Is New Zealand
Validation scores (%) for 3-month rainfall outlooks alidation 10 0-10 -20-30 Papua New Guinea Australia Caroline Is Solomon Islands Vanuatu New Caledonia Nauru Marshall Is 70% 80% 70% 60% Western Kiribati Tuvalu Fiji + Tonga Rawaki Is Tokelau Is Samoa 40% Niue Eastern Kiribati N.Cook Islands 70% 50% S. Cook Islands 60% Tuamotu Is Society Islands 50% Austral Is Marquesas Islands _ 50% Pitcairn 50% nd -40 New Zealand 150 160 170 180 170 160 150 140 130 ccuracy 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 Validation of 3-month rainfall outlooks Forecast number skill, % better than chance % of correct forecasts
Feedback Niue Used for disaster preparation, crop sowing, health Solomon Islands Input into public awareness information on tropical cyclones Cook Islands Advice to farmers of impending wet periods Advice to pearl industry Tonga Users are National Disaster Office, Water Board, Electric Power Board, Defence Services and Visitors Bureau
Feedback Samoa We, in the Pacific have now come about to realizing the potential usefulness and appropriateness; especially in having a more comprehensible and more knowledgeable tool of assisting our people; plan and prepare adequately for the months ahead. I commend and congratulate the producers and contributors of the Island Climate Update, and; especially the donors for without this financial support, this most valuable and useful tool to the Pacific Is shall never come forth. Mr. Faatoia Malele, Acting Director, Samoa Meteorological Service, February 2001.
Summary Multi-national collaboration Responsible for the success Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Major research and application for small island states
Summary Reasonable predictability in large-scale climate rainfall, wind patterns, Southern Oscillation trends Produced through multinational effort Input from climate centres throughout the South Pacific, supported internationally Useful user feedback preparation for floods and droughts tropical cyclone guidance
The Future Revamping ICU with new tools and products - soil moisture - links to national and regional programmes - part of regional climate information system WSSD follow up Millennium development goals - PI-GCOS - adaptation studies