NCAR-Xcel-NOAA Meeting May 11-12, 2010 Boulder, CO NOAA s Capabilities in Wind Energy Melinda Marquis, Ph.D. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Outline NOAA has a potential role in improving wind forecasting NOAA provides the nation s operational weather forecasts NOAA has unique research capabilities that could improve weather models Other sectors and NOAA efforts would benefit from these improvements NOAA s contribution is just one piece of the puzzle NOAA is committed to collaborating with the private sector, academia and other federal agencies Field demonstration project (DOE EERE NOAA private sector) exemplifies the collaboration needed NOAA and others recognize the role it could play NOAA Strategic Energy Review Senate Bill 2852 2
Atmospheric science for renewable energy Renewable energy community requires: Observations (more and better) Research (e.g., better understanding of BL processes) Forecasts (new and improved) Analysis (new climate studies) The atmospheric-science research and operational communities are well poised to meet these needs. Collaboration and close communication among the public, private, and academic sectors are required.
NOAA s role in wind forecasting NOAA s observations, forecasts and products were not developed for renewable energy applications, and in most or all cases do not provide the accuracy, geographic coverage, or resolution needed. If funded, our role would be to provide an improved foundational forecast of winds (wind speed and direction; also temperature and precipitation for icing conditions). Our role is not to forecast power production, which is the private sector s role and responsibility. 4
Research capabilities are numerous Observations midnight Instrumentation Field Programs sunset Communication, data archive, data distribution Data assimilation Post-processing Evaluation 5
Improved forecasts for wind industry would benefit many other efforts Within NOAA Aviation (NextGen) Fire weather Air quality Severe weather (warn-on forecasts) Beyond NOAA National Mesonet (NoN) DHS (plume dispersion) 6
Howdy, partners Private sector provides tailored forecasts for wind-energy clients. Data Sharing would increase number of observations NOAA puts into its models, and therefore yield improved forecasts. NOAA could facilitate data sharing and protect proprietary data. Other federal agencies, e.g., DOE, DOI, FERC have complementary strengths and purviews. DOE and NOAA are forging an MOU. University researchers in atmospheric and climate science can help expand our understanding of RE resources, boundary-layer processes and long-term impacts of RE. Iberdrola s Klondike wind farm, near Wasco, OR. Photo courtesy of Iberdrola. 7
Research capabilities Modeling Goals: A version of the WRF model, close to the HRRR 3 km horizontal resolution, with a 1 km nest over the study region. High vertical resolution close to the surface (within the PBL). Run hourly to include information from latest observations out to 12-18h, out to 72-84h 4x daily. Add ensembles with 3-6 members as resources become available. Add aerosols as part of in-line chemistry as resources become available. Important for both solar and wind energy influence on PBL development/winds. 8
A start: field demonstration project DOE EERE NOAA private sector Objectives Weather data collection and modeling to enhance short term (0 to 6 hour) forecasting to support wind energy integration Influence the emerging nationwide network of networks to meet renewable energy needs Step 1- Request for Information input to best target DOE/NOAA support Outcomes regional demonstration(s) of enhanced forecasting capabilities and accelerated federal contribution to wind energy needs 9
A field program might include: 600-800 km Slide courtesy of Jim Wilczak. 10
Data Denial Experiment to Show Impact of New Observations 30 days (not continuous in time) will be selected based on meteorological conditions, and the HRRR model will be re-run for those days on an hourly update basis, withholding the assimilation of all of the special observations. Comparisons of the forecasts with and without the added special observations will demonstrate the impact of those combined observations on wind ramp model forecast skill. 11
HRRR without New Observations vs. RR Compare the HRRR simulations for the selected 30 days using no special data assimilation with the most similar coarser resolution NWS model, the Rapid Refresh (RR) model, which will become operational in the early 2011 time frame. RR model will use the same dynamical core (WRF-ARW) as the HRRR, and since the RR will not be assimilating the special observations, the only significant difference between it and the 30-day re-run HRRR simulations will be a 13 km versus 3 km horizontal resolution. This will provide a quantitative determination of the impact of the higher resolution HRRR model alone. 12
12-Month HRRR with New Observations vs. RR To get longer term statistics over the entire 12 months of the field program, the HRRR model including assimilation of the special data will be compared to the operational NWS RR model. The operational RR will not assimilate the special observations being deployed for this pilot study. This comparison will then show the combined impact of the HRRR and special observations (i.e., what could become available operationally in the future) to the present day status quo (lower resolution RR, with no special observations). 13
Private, public, and academic sectors are already talking about collaboration AMS Commission on Weather Climate Enterprise AMS Board on Enterprise Economic Development AMS Renewable Energy Subcommittee Multiple public meetings: 2009 AMS Summer Community Meeting: http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/weatherhead/activities.htm AGU RE Townhall (Dec. 2009) AMS Annual Conference (Jan. 2010) AMS Public-Private Partnership Forum, April 6-7, D.C. http://www.ametsoc.org/meet/fainst/2010pubprivatepartnerforum.html AMS RE Townhall, Annual Conference, 2010: Justin Sharp (Iberdrola), Betsy Weatherhead (Univ. of CO), John Manbianco (AWS Truewind), Bill Mahoney (NCAR), Stan Calvert (DOE/EERE), Don Berchoff (NOAA/NWS), Tom Karl (NOAA/NCDC)
NOAA undertakes a Strategic Energy Review In June 2009, NOAA s Administrator requested an agency-wide review of its energy roles, responsibilities, and activities. The objectives of NOAA s Strategic Energy Review are to develop: An inventory of current and potential future NOAA energy-related programs, capabilities, partnerships, legislative mandates, and funding An evaluation of gaps and opportunities in energy-related programs and services An evaluation of partnership opportunities with, and responsibilities to, other Federal agencies and parties outside the U.S. government Proposed recommendations for a comprehensive and coordinated NOAA strategy for energy issues that considers environmental stewardship 15
Senate Bill 2852 would ratify new role Introduced in December 2009, the bill proposes to establish, within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an integrated and comprehensive ocean, coastal, Great Lakes, and atmospheric research, prediction, and environmental information program to support renewable energy. 16
NOAA could assume other roles Researching how natural variability and anthropogenic climate change affect wind and solar resources in the coming years and decades. Studying the capacity of an energy system with large amounts of RE to meet demand under extreme conditions, e.g., heat wave with low winds. Determining the impact of wind turbines on microclimate 17
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Photo courtesy of NASA, taken May 1, 2010. 18
Cape Wind 19
Summary NOAA has a potential role in improving wind forecasting NOAA s potential contribution is just one piece of the puzzle NOAA and others recognize the role it could play Thank you for listening!