Hurricane Season 2010 & NOAA s Deepwater Response What s Happened? What Will 2010 Bring? Possible Shoreline Effects Darin Figurskey Meteorologist-in-Charge NOAA s NWS Raleigh, NC NOAA s National Weather Service
2009 Statistics Below Normal Three hurricanes (Bill, Fred, Ida) Two major hurricanes (Bill and Fred) Two coastal U.S. strikes Tropical Storm Claudette in August Ida in November Fred was the strongest hurricane on record south of 30N and east of 35W. Ida was the first November hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Kate in 1985. Track forecasts set record for accuracy in the 24 72 hr. time.
2010 Outlook Normals: 11, 6, & 2
Multi-decadal signal What will sea surface temperatures do in the eastern Atlantic? Weakening El Niño? 2004 name list
Satellites & Planes NOAA s geostationary and polarorbiting satellites help produce accurate, daily weather forecasts NOAA aircraft conduct multispectral scan surveys of marsh/coastline survey flights NOAA WP-3D Orion aircraft Track loop current Assisting EPA w/air quality monitoring
Vessels Collecting & surveying impacts to varieties of fish/mammals and seafood safety sampling Performing sub-surface testing to determine presence of oil and monitor water quality PISCES DELAWARE II
8 NOAA Information Resources deepwaterhorizon.noaa.gov/ Response Trajectories Closures Sea Turtles & Marine Mammals Assessments Important Contacts Factsheets and Publications
Data Resources www.geoplatform.gov/gulfresponse One-stop shop" for spill response information Web-based GIS platform that provides you with near-real time information about the response effort.
10 Scientists on the Scene
June 23
July 15 The offshore forecast was temporarily stopped on June 20, 2010 due to the small amount of oil offshore, the absence of recent observations confirming significant amounts of oil in offshore areas, and the large distance between the loop current complex and the Deepwater Horizon oil slick. Offshore forecasts will resume if the threat returns.
July 28
South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico Circulation Nowcast/Forecast (SABGOM N/F) Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, NCSU
Hurricanes and the Oil Spill NOAA s Oil Spill Response Hurricanes span an enormous area of ocean. Oil is not expected to appreciably affect the intensity or track of any tropical cyclone. High winds & seas will mix & weather any amounts of oil residue. Movement of any amount of oil residue depends on the track of the storm.
Hurricanes and the Oil Spill NOAA s Oil Spill Response Storm surge can carry oil residue into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. As for the rain, hurricanes draw water vapor from a large area, larger than any area influenced by oil. Rain is produced by clouds circulating the storm.
Hurricanes and the Oil Spill NOAA s Oil Spill Response Whether there s no oil or very little, NOAA and the NWS will be ready to support officials 24 hours a day, every day. See NOAA s web page, www.noaa.gov, for the latest information on NOAA s work to assist with oil spill efforts.
Workshops to prepare for the season. Conference calls well in advance of the event. Emergency Services Personal contacts in advance, during, and after as needed. Electronic mail notification and updates. Storm survey assistance if needed. Coordination
Seasonal Threat by Month
Seasonal Threat Cont
Seasonal Threat Cont
1930-2004
In NC in 2009: June severe weather and tornadoes
Atlantic Track Error Trends Errors have been cut in half over the past 15 years 2009 was best year ever at 24-72 hours Trends more erratic at days 4 and 5 due to smaller samples
Atlantic Intensity Error Trends No progress with intensity in last 15-20 years 24-48 h intensity forecasts likely off by one SSHS category Off by two SSHS categories perhaps 5-10% of the time
Things to Think About Every three years on average, the U.S. is struck five times, and two of those are major hurricanes. From a Mason-Dixon Hurricane Awareness Poll: 87% would evacuate if asked to do so, but almost all would want to take pets 56% of individuals did not have a family disaster plan 54% of individuals do not feel vulnerable to a hurricane, or related tornado or flooding Most individuals think the forecast path of the storm is the most unreliable part of the forecast
More Things to Think About North Carolina ranks first with the greatest percentage of killer nocturnal tornadoes and killer nocturnal tornado events. 80.7% of tornado deaths in North Carolina occur at night 66.7% of all killer tornado events occurring during the nighttime as well. Only 28.3% of all tornadoes occur at night in North Carolina. Ashley, W.S., A.J. Krmenec, and R. Schwantes, 2008: Vulnerability due to Nocturnal Tornadoes, Wea. & Forecasting, 23, 795 807.
www.nhc.noaa.gov www.nhc.noaa.gov
Changes to TPC Products TPC will issue watches when tropical cyclone conditions along the coast are possible within 48 hours. TPC will issue warnings when tropical cyclone conditions along the coast are expected within 36 hours. Discussion of surge removed from Saffir-Simpson Scale. Wind only. A graphical storm surge probability product will be made available.
When and Where is P-Surge Available? http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php Beginning when the NHC issues a hurricane watch or warning for the continental US Available approx. 1-2 hours after the advisory release time P-Surge Available in 1 foot increments from 2 to 25 feet.
32 Back-Up
NOAA Line Office Contributions Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) Scientific support to the U.S. Coast Guard and Unified Command National Weather Service Incident weather forecasts including marine and aviation National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Experimental imagery for spill trajectory forecasts
NOAA Line Office Contributions National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Issues related to marine mammals, sea turtles, and fishery resources Management of Fishery Closures Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO) USCG Liaison to the DCO Incident Support Team USCG Headquarters Provide ships and aircraft in support of NOAA environmental assessment
Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Oceanographic and atmospheric modeling and data support Gulf of Mexico Sea Grant programs providing technical advice on impacts to living resources and coastal communities National Ocean Service NOAA Line Office Oceanographic modeling support Production of nautical charts that display the spill zone forecast - Data to support trajectory forecasts Collection of aerial imagery Contributions Operation and maintenance of systems to measure water levels, weather, and near-shore current meters Support for National Estuarine Research Reserves and Gulf coastal managers Collection of data to monitor contaminants in the area Assessment of socioeconomic impacts