Apéndice 1: Figuras y Tablas del Marco Teórico

Apéndice 1: Figuras y Tablas del Marco Teórico FIGURA A.1.1 Manufacture poles and manufacture regions Poles: Share of employment in manufacture at least 12% and population of 250,000 or more. Regions: all the municipalities closest to each pole FIGURA A.1.2 Services poles and services regions Poles: highest.33 percentile in share of employment in services over total employment and population of 250,000 or more Regions: all the municipalities closest to each pole 35

FIGURA A.1.3 FIGURA A.1.4 36

FIGURAS A.1.5 Y A.1.6 37

FIGURAS A.1.7 Y A.1.8 38

TABLA A.1.1 Estimation of locality change in employment, Mexico 1990-2000 Regional growth Regional fixed effects Role of growth pole Ln(distance to closest pole) Growth of pole * distance to pole Transmission % of population served by state road % of population served by federal Mean minut.to closest semi urban Locality's absorption capacity Change P- Manufacture Change P- Growth P- Growth P- Change P- Change P- Services Growth P- Growth P- - 0.00-0.00-0.00-0.00-0.00-0.00-0.00-0.00-81.7*** 0.00 52.0* 0.06-2.839 0.52 13.5** 0.05-0.09 0.01-6.686** 0.01-1.158 0.86-50.256* -3.5*** 0.00-0.00 0.00 1.8** 0.03 0.00-0.068 0.37 0.43*** 0.74** 0.01 0.95*** 0.00 0.31*** 0.00 0.33*** 0.00 0.12 0.82 0.07 0.90 0.19*** 0.00 0.19*** 0.00 1.22*** 0.00 1.21*** 0.00 0.137** 0.03 0.135** 0.03 1.20** 0.01 1.16** 0.01 0.21*** 0.00 0.22*** 0.00 0.09 0.32 0.05 0.54-0.06*** 0.01-0.06*** 0.00 0.4** 0.01 0.4** 0.01-0.04*** 0.01-0.04*** 0.01 Area in km2-0.014 0.07-0.009 0.23 0.002 0.29 0.003 0.17 - - 0.00 0.05*** 0.05*** 0.00 0.001 0.26 0.001 0.29 East coast -195*** 0.01-171** 0.02-23 0.19-20 0.25-233* 0.07-242* 0.06 8 0.49 8 0.47 West coast 147*** 0.00 115** 0.02 57*** 0.00 53*** 0.00 186** 0.05 187** 0.05 17** 0.04 17** 0.04 Northern border 9.3 0.94-81 0.48-14 0.61-25 0.37 158 0.41 142 0.46 30* 0.08 30* 0.08 Southern border -126 0.27-176 0.12-27 0.32-34 0.22-304 0.13-302 0.14 24 0.19 24 0.19 Mean altitude in meters St.dev. of altitude in meters % illiterate among 15 or older Endogenous locality growth Total employed population % employed in sector 0.13*** 0.00 0.12*** 0.00 0.03*** 0.00 0.03*** 0.00 0.16*** 0.00 0.17*** 0.00 0.01** 0.02 0.01** 0.02 - - -0.15* 0.07-0.10 0.24-0.03 0.18-0.02 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.00 0.99 0.46*** 0.46*** 1.04 0.26 0.99 0.28-0.07 0.77-0.07 0.74-2.8* 0.09-2.9* 0.08 0.25* 0.08 0.26* 0.08 0.05*** 0.00 0.05*** 0.00-0.001 0.12-0.001 0.14 0.29*** 0.00 0.29*** 0.00-0.01-0.01 0.001*** 0.001*** 4.4*** 0.00 4.2*** 0.00-3.1*** 0.00-3.1*** 0.00 13.2*** 0.00 13.3*** 0.00-2.2*** 0.00-2.2*** 0.00 Constant 179 0.54 1715*** 0.00 124* 0.077 311*** 0.00 153 0.76 730 0.20 192*** 0.00 171*** 0.00 Observations 1802 1802 1802 1802 1876 1876 1876 1876 R-squared 0.30 0.32 0.17 0.17 0.74 0.74 0.25 0.25 * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1% 39

TABLA A.1.2 Classes of determinants of local growth: decomposition of variance Effects Variables Region s and pole s growth Transmission to locality Locality s absorption capacity Locality s endogenous growth Regional fixed effects Distance to closest manufacture or services growth pole Growth of pole* distance to pole % of population served by a state road % of the population served by a federal road Area in km2 Area in km 2 East coast West coast Northern border Southern border Mean altitude Standard deviation of altitude % illiterate Minutes to closest semi-urban town % of employment in manufacturing or services Total employed population in 1990 Region s and Transmission to Locality s Locality s Effects pole s growth locality absorption endogenous capacity growth Growth in manufacturing 0.28 0.15 0.09 0.48 employment Growth in services 0.31-0.02 0.06 0.64 employment 40

TABLA A.1.3 Determinants of participation in off-farm activities, Mexican ejido households Multinomial estimation, with no off-farm work as the comparison choice. Agric. Construction Other non-ag. wage wage labor worker labor Self-employment US seasonal migrant Mean Relative Relative Relative Relative Relative Value 1 Risk 2 P- Risk P- risk P- risk P- risk P- Individual characteristics Head of household (reference group) 29 Spouse of head of household 26 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.80 0.23 0.14 0.01 Male younger than 35 years old 20 1.92 0.00 0.55 0.05 1.36 0.16 0.74 0.13 2.47 0.02 Female younger than 35 years old 19 0.40 0.06 0.10 0.00 0.70 0.20 0.55 0.02 0.23 0.02 Male 35 years old or older 3 0.57 0.26 0.40 0.23 2.32 0.01 0.39 0.07 1.19 0.82 Female 35 years old or older 4 0.04 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.11 0.03 0.66 0.27 0.14 0.01 Education of less than 3 years (reference level) 31 Education 3 years and < 6 years 23 0.97 0.90 2.35 0.02 2.83 0.00 1.65 0.01 1.82 0.26 Education 6 years and < 9 years 31 0.80 0.43 2.25 0.03 3.79 0.00 1.82 0.00 1.67 0.41 Education of 9 years or more 15 0.97 0.93 1.15 0.80 10.33 0.00 2.58 0.00 3.49 0.05 Assets and characteristics of the household Land assets per adult (ha of RFE) 31 0.96 0.13 0.76 0.02 1.00 0.83 1.00 0.97 1.00 0.94 Community land per member (100 ha) 25.8 0.99 0.02 1.00 0.81 1.00 0.79 1.00 0.47 0.99 0.13 Access to technical assistance 6 0.31 0.02 0.52 0.36 1.06 0.87 1.18 0.59 0.31 0.24 Access to formal credit 18 0.70 0.21 1.61 0.20 0.87 0.53 0.96 0.87 0.49 0.17 US migration assets (number of persons) 1.88 0.92 0.06 1.00 0.98 0.95 0.11 1.00 0.99 1.10 0.03 Mexico migration assets (number of persons) 5.54 0.99 0.64 0.98 0.50 0.95 0.01 1.00 0.93 0.97 0.54 Age of household head (years) 52.6 0.98 0.00 0.98 0.10 0.99 0.11 1.00 0.72 0.98 0.04 Indigenous 22 1.29 0.38 0.96 0.92 0.59 0.03 1.83 0.01 0.22 0.05 Locational characteristics Access to urban centers Number of urban centers within 1 hour 1.57 0.98 0.84 1.00 0.97 1.03 0.69 1.01 0.90 0.86 0.33 " " x female 0.77 0.66 0.03 0.69 0.10 1.27 0.01 0.92 0.35 0.84 0.64 Number of rural centers within 1 hour 2.61 1.07 0.35 1.12 0.35 1.08 0.26 0.91 0.16 1.12 0.27 Regions North (reference region) North Pacific 9 0.58 0.21 0.38 0.23 0.91 0.80 1.05 0.89 0.06 0.01 Center 30 0.53 0.03 1.74 0.17 1.00 0.99 1.84 0.01 0.28 0.00 Gulf 17 1.06 0.87 1.06 0.91 0.90 0.73 1.18 0.62 0.36 0.07 South 21 0.31 0.00 1.09 0.85 0.51 0.02 0.82 0.47 0.11 0.00 Number of observations in the category 3188 228 76 283 336 71 Pseudo R2 0.14 Robust standard error adjusted for clustering by ejidos. 1Percentages unless otherwise indicated. 2Relative risk is the exponential of the coefficient. It gives the ratio of the relative probability of the choice for a one unit increase in the exogenous variable: [Pr(choice I x+1) / (Pr(base choice x+1)] / [Pr(choice I x) / (Pr(base choice x)]. P-s are the tests of the underlying coefficients being equal to 0, i.e., of the relative risk being equal to 1. 41

TABLA A.1.4 Determinants of welfare and poverty in marginal rural areas of Mexico Progresa communities. Mean of variable Marginal annual Poverty Status monthly df/dx P> z (pesos) Assets Natural capital Irrigated land (ha) 0.12 0.12-0.06 0.00 1898 Rainfed land (ha) 2.10 2.10-0.01 0.00 399 Human capital (number of household members) Male, education level 10.87-0.03 0.00 814 Male, education level 20.37-0.09 0.00 2650 Male, education level 30.16-0.21 0.00 6255 Male, education level 40.01-0.39 0.00 11531 Female, education level 10.95 0.03 0.00-835 Female, education level 20.36-0.03 0.00 844 Female, education level 30.13-0.10 0.00 2951 Female, education level 4 0.01 40.01-0.27 0.00 8116 Social capital Indigenous head (0/1) 0.34 0.05 0.01 Indigenous spouse (0/1) 0.31 0.10 0.00 Income transfers (100 pesos) 1.47 0.00 0.00 100 Household characteristics Gender of head (male = 1) 0.88 0.02 0.26 Age of head (years) 47.96 0.00 0.00 Children 14 years old and less 2.22 0.14 0.00 Young over 15 years, in school 0.22-0.06 0.00 Context Village characteristics Male wage (1000 pesos/month) 1.36-0.01 0.12 Female wage (1000 pesos/month) 1.37-0.01 0.00 Federal or state road (0/1) 0.48-0.05 0.00 Car ownership (per household) 0.01-1.38 0.00 Municipal characteristics Welfare inequality (std/mean) 0.22 1.27 0.00 Employment structure (shares) Agricultural worker 0.64 Non-ag. worker 0.09-0.32 0.00 Business owner 0.00-2.97 0.00 Ejidatario 0.10-0.11 0.06 Self-employed and other 0.16-0.07 0.24 Status indicators Guerrero 0.08 0.08 0.15 0.00 Hidalgo 0.18 0.18-0.12 0.00 Michoacan 0.12 0.12 Puebla 0.16 0.16-0.07 0.00 Queretaro 0.06 0.06-0.08 0.00 San Luis Potosi 0.16 0.16-0.08 0.00 42

Veracruz 0.24 0.24-0.05 0.00 Goodness-of-fit Pseudo R2 0.27 Number of observations 20895 43

TABLA A.1.5 Correlation coefficients in sample mean incomes across 102 counties Farm Nonfarm Nonfarm Collective Income income I income II income Farm income 1.0000 Nonfarm income I 0.3240 1.0000 Nonfarm income II 0.1134 0.0027 1.0000 Collective income 0.4505 0.1125 0.2171 1.0000 FUENTE: Ravallion (2002) TABLA A.1.6 Consumption growth regressed on county-mean incomes and own incomes Consumption growth 1985-90 GMM estimates Coefficient t-ratio Constant -0.019034* -3.631332 Coefficients on lagged consumption 1987-0.023637-0.260700 1988 0.231193* 5.477698 1989-0.036034-0.974515 1990 0.192418* 4.036306 County mean household incomes by source, 1985 Farm income 0.000195* 7.029119 Nonfarm income I 6.77E-05 1.848970 Nonfarm income II 6.10E-05 1.376225 Collective income 0.000148 1.925260 Household s own income by source, 1985 Farm income -5.07E-05* -3.616862 Nonfarm income I -7.25E-05* -4.473417 Nonfarm income II -7.47E-05* -5.055279 Collective income -2.25E-05-0.795760 Note:* indicates significant at 1% level, two-tailed test; n=5,641 (111 counties). FUENTE: Ravallion (2002) 44

TABLA A.1.7 Decomposition of growth by income source Income change 1985-90, normalised by initial consumption Farm income Coefficient t- ratio Nonfarm income I Coefficient t- ratio Nonfarm income II Coefficient t- ratio Collective income Coefficient t- ratio Constant -1.042776-0.606657 0.007246 1.581473-0.001584-0.304262-0.006296* -2.776274 County mean household incomes by source, 1985 Farm income 0.058360* 5.582170 9.02E-05* 3.587523-1.43E-05-0.527382 4.85E-06 0.405785 Nonfarm income 1-0.019292-1.864275-7.72E-05* -2.922507 9.23E-05* 2.627234 7.64E-05* 4.199318 Nonfarm income 2-0.012158-0.836240-2.46E-05-0.722362 0.000358* 7.216553 1.95E-06 0.156793 Collective income 0.009052 0.365210 7.86E-06 0.104518-0.000232-2.364964 8.38E-05 1.705881 Household s own income by source, 1985 Farm income -0.065339* -7.964560-2.23E-05-2.032218-2.72E-05-2.032737 9.13E-07 0.225140 Nonfarm income 1-0.009548-2.082792-8.46E-05* -5.212832 8.70E-07 0.069791-1.86E-05* -3.288436 Nonfarm income 2-0.005469-1.357622 4.01E-06 0.394638-4.41E-05-1.707732 1.76E-06 0.414443 Collective income -0.024780* -2.654654-1.04E-05-0.393923 1.42E-05 0.485131-0.000132* -5.666340 J statistic 0.073149 0.037610 0.020013 0.005590 Notes: * indicates significant at 1% level, two-tailed test; n=5,641 (111 counties) 45

TABLA A.1.8 Consumption growth model using geographic data from county administrative records Coefficient t-statistic Constant -0.328076* -3.938664 Coefficients on lagged consumption 1987-0.563094* -5.580720 1988 0.226777* 6.313155 1989-0.031837-0.878866 1990 0.264715* 6.118230 Economic activity at county level (a) Farm Cultivated area per 10,000 persons 0.003075* 3.424595 Fertilizer used per cultivated area 0.004131* 7.433107 Farm machinery used per cultivated area 0.000368* 2.651082 (b) Nonfarm Number of commercial enterprises in county per 10,000 0.000220* 2.768617 population Rural industry gross product per 10,000: township enterprises -6.63E-05-1.759901 Rural industry gross product per 10,000 persons: village 0.000415* 3.729650 enterprises Rural industry gross product per 10,000 persons: household -1.77E-05-0.173829 enterprises Rural construction gross product per 10,000 persons -0.000154-2.063245 Rural transportation gross product per 10,000 persons -0.000509* -3.639974 Rural gross product from services per 10,000 persons 0.000169 0.715551 Other geographic controls Guangdong (dummy) 0.037373* 4.338988 Guangxi (dummy) 0.022666* 4.345667 Yunnan (dummy) -0.005237-0.869316 Revolutionary base area (dummy) 0.050238* 3.248796 Border area (dummy) 0.002216 0.563537 Coastal area (dummy) -0.012471-1.278915 Minority area (dummy) -0.012457* -3.714323 Mountainous area (dummy) -0.015838* -4.452355 Plains (dummy) 0.005659 1.459167 Population density (log) 0.021519 2.480439 Proportion of illiterates in 15+population -0.000322-1.866172 Infant mortality rate -0.000147-1.296671 Medical personnel per capita 0.000584 1.988495 Kilometers of roads per capita 0.000455* 3.185796 Proportion of population living in urban areas -0.097467* -3.199404 Household variables Expenditure on agricultural inputs per cultivated area -0.001911* -7.161740 Fixed productive assets per capita -1.27E-05-0.883144 Cultivated land per capita -0.008748-1.802922 Household size (log) 0.056994* 8.967627 46

Age of household head Age2of household head 0.002086* - 2.57E-05* 2.617436-2.899381 Proportion of adults in the household who are illiterate 0.007032 1.125765 Proportion of adults with primary school education 7.77E-06 0.001468 Proportion of children 6-11 years 0.013395 1.377193 Proportion of children 12-14 years 0.032215* 2.502249 Proportion of children 15-17 years 0.002467 0.158605 Proportion of children with primary school education -0.002868-0.736394 Proportion of children with secondary school education 0.020066 2.002172 Whether a household member works in the state sector -0.001098-0.147539 (dummy) Proportion of 60+members in the household 0.002312 0.187774 Notes: * indicates significant at 1% level, two-tailed test; n=4,778 (96 counties). FUENTE: Ravallion (2002) 47

TABLA A.1.9 Descomposition by income source Income change 1985-90, normalised by initial Farm income Nonfarm income I Nonfarm income II Collective income consumption Coefficient t-ratio Coefficient t- ratio Coefficient t- ratio Coefficient t- ratio Constant -0.037285-0.551930-0.317851-5.899826 0.017037 0.312113 0.002492 0.213991 Economic activity at county level (a) Farm Cultivated area per 10,000 persons 0.001425 1.975995 0.004668* 7.661727 0.00096 1.694963-5.92E-05-0.494620 Fertilizer used per cultivated area (x100) 0.3298* 7.450607 0.1553* 4.623649 0.0775* 2.335067 0.000321 0.042174 Farm machinery used per cultivated area (x100) 0.0137 0.881606 0.00559 0.539991-0.0262* -2.185012 0.00757* 2.829688 (b) Nonfarm Number of commercial enterprises per 10,000-6.40E-05-1.012804 1.02E-05 0.192262 0.000256* 4.728632-1.06E-06-0.084385 population Rural industry gross product per 10,000: township 1.53E-05 0.472816-7.68E-05* -3.695281-5.09E-05-2.126782 3.83E-05* 3.920372 enterprises Rural industry gross product per 10,000 persons: 0.000128 1.339266-1.44E-05-0.280215 0.000355* 4.522848-2.83E-05-1.738851 village enterprises Rural industry gross product per 10,000 persons: 0.000207* 2.549566 0.000188* 3.230548-9.72E-05-1.487319-3.74E-05-1.336554 enterprises owned by households Rural construction gross product per 10,000-1.16E-06-0.017589 5.40E-05 1.257481-2.94E-05-0.546224 1.46E-06 0.136096 persons Rural transportation gross product per 10,000-0.000225-1.893099-0.000234* -2.760754-0.000240-2.109118-3.10E-05-1.163832 persons Rural gross product from services per 10,000-0.000870* -4.433674 0.000235 1.700295 3.25E-05 0.212639-4.47E-05-1.095567 persons Other geographic controls Guangdong (dummy) 0.040192* 5.578835-0.039672* -7.215861-0.001470-0.261715 0.001851 1.382536 Guangxi (dummy) 0.007369 1.729346 0.006060 1.656530 0.000142 1.066986 0.000817 1.080041 Yunnan (dummy) -0.008800-1.728590-0.003452-0.851059-0.000270* -3.355940 0.000545 0.646179 Revolutionary base area (dummy) 0.051141* 3.953926-0.005317-0.896477-0.000388* -1.856168 0.000267 0.172994 Border area (dummy) 0.015034* 4.753477-0.006759-2.516487 6.47E-05 0.512528-0.000337-0.645808 Coastal area (dummy) -0.050290* -5.715417 0.001306 0.172308 0.007192 0.300917 0.002023 0.869084 Minority area (dummy) (x100) -0.2865-1.020337-0.6569* -2.915940-0.01381-0.598987 0.0167 0.369802 Mountainous area (dummy) -0.019013* -6.629943 0.004989 2.179428 0.005246 2.187413 0.000247 0.478782 48

Plains (dummy) 0.003090 0.882888 0.009975* 3.684431 0.002272 0.751968-0.000332-0.527546 Population density (log) 0.003167 0.445301 0.026073* 4.853929-0.001470-0.261715-0.000364-0.297651 Prop of illiterates in 15+population (x100) -0.0397* -2.810640 0.0183 1.371223 0.0142 1.066986 0.00253 0.982911 Infant mortality rate -3.89E-05-0.437105-0.000126-1.605491-0.000270* -3.355940-3.62E-05-2.187786 Medical personnel per capita (x100) 0.0368 1.435438-0.00388-0.148288-0.0388* -1.856168 0.00424 1.070008 Kilometers of roads per capita (x100) 0.0678* 5.693957-0.0100-0.985167 0.00647 0.512528 0.00121 0.663914 Proportion of population living in urban areas -0.082497* -3.331008 0.039684 1.939799 0.007192 0.300917-0.004783-0.796981 Household-level variables Expenditure on agricultural inputs per cultivated -0.1788* -9.474159-0.00532-0.578969-0.0199-2.058113 9.48E-06 0.435807 Area (x100) Fixed productive assets per capita (x100) -0.000515-0.512903 8.22E-05 0.074993 0.00457* 2.566003-0.000204-0.867348 Cultivate land per capita -0.008281-1.818687-0.007585-2.438985-0.008547* -3.224610-0.000337-0.511164 Household size (log) 0.012321* 2.596482 0.014103* 2.919817 0.002724 0.615920-0.000927-1.012190 Age of household head Age2of household head (x100) 0.000470-0.000731 0.718755-0.999952 0.000379-0.000355 0.635091-0.522368-0.000143 2.45E-06-0.251665 0.385523 5.26E-05-0.0001 0.476080-0.775087 Prop of adults in household who are illiterate -0.002009-0.373594 0.000758 0.185174-0.001015-0.229459 0.002438 2.292417 Prop of adults in household with primary school -0.002942-0.667418 0.004343 1.223840-0.005701-1.464877 0.001718 1.771110 education Prop of children in the household ages 6-11 years 0.005990 0.711307 0.009385 1.432443-0.006400-0.877534 0.001215 0.583170 Prop of children in household ages 12-14 years 0.004234 0.37831 3 0.012715 1.410109 0.012735 1.341365 0.003008 0.917733 Prop of children in household ages 15-17 years 0.002616 0.209421-0.005501-0.529853 0.018894 1.796201 0.005167 1.699518 Prop of children with prim school education (x100) -0.0409-0.121831-0.3429-1.283922 0.001907 0.612289 0.0189 0.220488 Prop of children with secondary school education -0.001224-0.149337 0.010930 2.011010-0.007282-1.247138 0.002381 1.411268 Household member works in state sector (dummy) -0.018599* -3.088751-0.004086-0.805931-0.003461-0.765217-0.000913-0.493164 Proportion of 60+members in the household 0.002762 0.261581-0.005292-0.646863 0.001195 0.151179-0.000654-0.363943 Notes: * indicates significant at 1% level, two-tailed test; n=4,778 (96 counties). FUENTE: Ravallion (2002) 49