Storm Surge Forecast with Shifting Forecast Tracks

Storm Surge Forecast with Shifting Forecast Tracks Storm Surge Findings in the Florida Keys Jon Rizzo Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Florida Keys

Florida Keys Life History

Florida Keys Landfall Hurricane Irma Landfall When: 9:10 am EDT Sunday September 10, 2017 Where: Cudjoe Key What: Max Sustained Winds 130 mph (northeast quadrant) Min Pressure 929 mb (27.43 inches)

Florida Keys Historical Perspective Hurricane Irma First Category 4 in 13 years to strike Florida, and second (to Harvey) to strike the United States. First Category 4 in 57 years to strike the Florida Keys directly. First Category 4 in 98 years to strike the Lower Florida Keys.*

Situation Overview Hurricane Irma New Information 130 mph Cat 4 Moving W 13 mph 5-Day Track Cone has reached the Florida Keys Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE Immediate Concerns None no significant impacts through at least Thursday night Long-Term Concerns Uncertainty in track beyond Saturday Forecast to remain at major hurricane intensity 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Potential Storm Surge Hurricane Irma SLOSH MOM for a Category 4 Hurricane at high tide AGL NOTE NOT A FORECAST Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE Areas of greatest risk: Depends where Irma tracks north, south, or within the Keys Track to the south means Oceanside surge Track to north or east means Bayside/Gulfside surge Timing Too early to discuss exact timing; Saturday- 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Situation Overview Hurricane Irma New Information 185 mph Cat 5 Moving W 15 mph Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE Immediate Concerns None no significant impacts through at least Friday morning Long-Term Concerns Forecast to remain at major hurricane intensity Dangerous Storm Surge Potential Unknown amount of interaction with landmass of Cuba or Florida mainland 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Potential Storm Surge Hurricane Irma SLOSH MEOW for a Category 4 Hurricane at high tide AGL Assumes: NW motion around 10 mph NOTE NOT A FORECAST Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE Areas of greatest risk: Depends where Irma tracks north, south, or within the Keys Track to the south means Oceanside surge Track to north or east means Bayside/Gulfside surge Timing Too early to discuss exact timing; Saturday night Sunday 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Situation Overview Hurricane Irma Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE New Information 175 mph Cat 5 Moving WNW 16 mph Immediate Concerns None no significant impacts through Saturday morning Long-Term Concerns Forecast to remain at major hurricane intensity Dangerous Storm Surge of 5-10 ft in portions of Keys Life threatening winds along the path of the storm Extended periods of tropical storm force winds possible along the path of the storm 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Storm Surge Potential Impact Hurricane Irma Storm Surge Watch for all the Florida Keys Life threatening inundation from storm surge possible over portions of the islands 5-10 feet of surge is reasonable worst case scenario Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Storm Surge Potential Inundation Hurricane Irma Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Situation Overview Hurricane Irma Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE New Information 155 mph Cat 4 Moving W 12 mph Immediate Concerns None no significant impacts through Saturday morning Long-Term Concerns Forecast to remain at major hurricane intensity Dangerous Storm Surge of 5-10 ft in portions of Keys Life threatening winds along the path of the storm Extended periods of tropical storm force winds possible along the path of the storm 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Potential Storm Surge Impacts Hurricane Irma Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE There is a potential for: 5-10 feet of storm surge above ground over portions of the Florida Keys. Highest in the Middle and Upper Keys. 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Storm Surge Potential Inundation Highest 10 Percentile for Lower Florida Keys (Sugarloaf through Big Pine Key) Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE Advisory 34 SE Florida Track Advisory 40 Lower Florida Keys Track 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Storm Surge Potential Inundation Highest 10 Percentile for Key West Area Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE Advisory 34 SE Florida Track Advisory 40 Lower Florida Keys Track 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Storm Surge Potential Inundation Highest 10 Percentile for Marathon Area Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE Advisory 34 SE Florida Track Advisory 40 Lower Florida Keys Track 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Storm Surge Potential Inundation Highest 10 Percentile for Key Largo/Ocean Reef Area Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE Advisory 34 SE Florida Track Advisory 40 Lower Florida Keys Track 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Situation Overview Hurricane Irma Category 3 Hurricane Irma has slowed down and is now making northwestward turn. 6:30 pm Friday September 9, 2017 (Simple Messaging) Tropical storm force winds will continue until late Sunday evening/early Monday morning. Most likely period for hurricane force winds is after midnight Tonight to approximately mid afternoon Sunday. Storm Surge of 5-10 feet above ground at the shore if occurring at high tide. (reasonable worst case scenario). Florida Keys WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE 5/18/2018 8:51 AM www.weather.gov/key

Florida Keys Total Water Level ASTRONOMICAL (LUNAR) TIDE Sea Level + ~ 1 foot

Florida Keys Total Water Level STORM SURGE + 5 to 9 feet

Florida Keys Total Water Level WAVE SET (UP) + ~ 4 feet

Florida Keys Total Water Level WAVE RUN-UP +??? Feet (Depends on Slope of Shore)

Florida Keys Total Water Level ASTRONOMICAL (LUNAR) TIDE + STORM SURGE + WAVE SET + WAVE RUN-UP = HIGH WATER MARK

Florida Keys Key West Water Levels

Florida Keys Key West Water Levels

Florida Keys Florida Keys High Water Marks

Storm Surge Impacts Marathon Cudjoe Key Rock Harbor

Big Pine Key Damage

Marathon through Islamorada

Storm Surge Impacts

Roadway Debris & Damage Pavement Wash-Outs on the Overseas Highway (US Hwy 1) Key Largo Islamorada Big Pine Key Marathon Key West

Storm Surge Forecast with Shifting Forecast Tracks Storm Surge Findings in the Florida Keys Jon Rizzo Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Florida Keys