Let s Talk Climate! Nolan Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Yampatika Seminar February 16, 2011 Steamboat Springs, Colorado
First -- A short background In 1973 the federal government abolished the State Climatologist program nationwide leaving Colorado without Later that same year, Colorado re-established the State Climate program with support through the Colorado Agricultural Experiment Station at Colorado S tate University.
Our Mission The Colorado Climate Center at CSU provides valuable climate expertise to the residents of the state through its threefold program of: 1) Climate Monitoring (data acquisition, analysis, and archiving), 2) Climate Research 3) Climate Services.(providing data, analysis, climate education and outreach)
Monitoring our Climate Elements: temperature, precipitation, snow, wind, solar, evaporation, soil temperatures, humidity, clouds, etc. Fort Collins CSU Historic Weather Station Continuous monitoring since the 1880s
Systematic weather data collection began in Colorado in the 1870s and 1880s Denver November 19-25, 1871
Colorado Weather Stations in 1890 Slower start in NW Colorado
What s so Amazing about Colorado? Four Climate Controls High elevation (Colorado is the highest state in the Union by far) Mid-Latitude location (lively seasonal changes) Interior Continental Location far from atmospheric moisture sources Complex Mountain topography
The Result?
Generous sunshine and low humidity, i.e. people like it here
Large Seasonal and diurnal Temperature Variations Fruita, Colo.
90 80 70 Steamboat Springs, CO Monthly Mean Maximum and Minimum Temperatures Tmax Tmin 60 Temp F 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
Steamboat Springs, CO Daily Tmax and Tmin for 2009 100 80 Tmax Tmin 60 Temperature F 40 20 0-20 -40 12/8/08 2/6/09 4/7/09 6/6/09 8/5/09 10/4/09 12/3/09 2/1/10 Date
Routt County a cool place to live http://www.thegardenhelper.com/hardiness.htm
Average Maximum Temperature JANUARY JULY
Frequent but highly variable precipitation (for every upslope, there s a downslope ) Photo by Wendy Ryan
Lots of Snow, sometimes and some places
National Annual Average Snowfall
Routt County is normally Colorado s most consistently snowy region of the state considering the modest mountains and elevation
Most Surface Water Supplies in Colorado Come From Mountain Snowmelt
Poudre River Discharge (cfs) at the Canyon Mouth for Water Year 2010 4500 4000 3500 Measured Discharge (cfs) Daily Average Discharge (cfs) Discharge (cfs) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 8/25/2009 10/14/2009 12/3/2009 1/22/2010 3/13/2010 5/2/2010 6/21/2010 8/10/2010 9/29/2010 11/18/2010 Date
How Does Colorado s Precipitation Compare to other parts of the U.S.?
Show Nationa PRISM map of average annual precip
Show Colorado PRISM map of average annual precip
Precipitation in Colorado varies a greatly from place to place with changing seasons Water Year Average Precipitation for Selected Stations 5.0 Grand Junction Vail Vail Pass Georgetown Denver Burlington 4.5 4.0 Precipitation (inches) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Colorado Experiences Large Yearto-Year Variations in Precipitation No two years are ever alike
Dry Lake Snotel WY 2010 and 2011
The timing and intensity of precipitation and associated temperatures help determine soil moisture, plant growth, etc. A year with 12 inches of total precipitation may be more favorable for plant growth than a year with over 16 inches.
Drought a regular visitor to Colorado 1.0 Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI (1890 - May 2007) 0.9 0.8 Fraction (in percent) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1890 1892 1895 1897 1900 1902 1905 1907 1910 1912 1915 1917 1920 1922 1925 1927 1930 1932 1935 1937 1940 1942 1945 1947 1950 1952 1955 1957 1960 1962 1965 1967 1970 1972 1975 1977 1980 1982 1985 1987 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007 Year
Recent U.S. Drought Status
How does the climate of Routt County and Steamboat Springs compare to other areas?
Temperatures compared to other parts of western Colorado 90 Mean Monthly Temperature Average Temperature (F) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Steamboat Springs Craig Grand Junction Durango Dillon Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
Temperatures compared to the Front Range cities of Colorado Mean Monthly Temperature 80 70 Mean Temperature (F) 60 50 40 30 20 Steamboat Springs Fort Collins Denver Colorado Springs Pueblo 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
Temperatures compared to other parts of the United States Mean Monthly Temperature 80 70 Mean Temperature (F) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Steamboat Springs Yakima, WA Santa Rosa, CA Benton, MI Ithaca, NY Clayton, GA Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
Precipitation compared to other parts of western Colorado Average Monthly Precipitation 8 Average Monthly Precipitation (in) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Steamboat Springs Craig 4SW Grand Junction WSFO Durango Vail Tower Snotel Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
Precipitation compared to the Front Range and eastern Colorado Average Monthly Precipitation Precipitation (in) 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 Steamboat Springs Fort Collins Burlington 4S Denver Stapleton Colorado Springs Georgetown 1 0.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
So..... Are we seeing any long term changes here in Western Colorado?
For much of Colorado, upward trends in seasonal temperatures are being observed and analyzed. However, precipitation continues to vary greatly and no discernable long-term trends have yet been detected
Confidently detecting climatic trends is much more challenging and difficult than determining spatial patterns, seasonal cycles, or year-to-year variations
Why is that? Because climate is already naturally variable Also, our observations cover only relatively short periods and our weather stations are imperfect
Still, our climate records are more complete, consistent, and widespread than nearly all other forms of long-term environmental monitoring (i.e. we shouldn t whine).
Grand Junction Seasonal Maximum and Minimum Temperatures 100 Winter Maximum Summer Maximum Winter Minimum Summer Minimum 90 80 Temperature (F) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year
Hayden Seasonal Maximum and Minimum Temperatures 100 Winter Maximum Summer Maximum Winter Minimum Summer Minimum 80 Temperature (F) 60 40 20 0-20 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year
It may not look like much on these graphs, but there has been an upward trend in temperatures over the past 50+ years over the western U.S.
**But Less warming since 2007 in our region**
Globally, this warming is apparent and unusual
Figuring out what s going on with precipitation and snowpack is proving to be more challenging --- and that s to be expected because precipitation is SO variable to begin with
Colorado Precipitation in Historic Perspective Most recent 12-month period (Sep 2009 Aug 2010) (Period of Record 1895-2010)
Dry Lake, CO (Elevation 8,400') April 1 Snow Water Equivalent 35 30 25 SWE (in) 20 15 10 5 Snow Course April 1 SWE (in) Snotel April 1 SWE (in) 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
There is some evidence of earlier snowmelt, but it is less obvious here than in other parts of the West Dry Lake, CO (Elevation 8,400') May 1 Snow Water Equivalent 40 35 Snow Course May 1 SWE (in) Snotel May 1 SWE (in) 30 25 SWE (in) 20 15 10 5 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
So, what about this winter?
Two questions for you 1) How long has it been since we last had temperatures as cold as what we experienced early this month? 2) How long has it been since we ve had this much snow on the ground in mid February?
Grand Lake 1NW Coldest Winter Temperature Grand Lake 1NW Coldest Winter Minimum Temperature 0-5 -10-15 Tmin (F) -20-25 -30-35 -40-45 -50 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Date
Grand Lake 6SSW Coldest Winter Temperature Grand Lake 6SSW Coldest Winter Minimum Temperature 0-5 -10-15 Tmin (F) -20-25 -30-35 -40-45 -50 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Date
Craig/Craig 4SW Coldest Winter Temperature Craig and Craig 4SW Coldest Winter Minimum Temperature (F) 0-5 -10-15 Tmin (F) -20-25 -30-35 -40-45 -50 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Date
Hayden Coldest Winter Temperature Hayden Coldest Winter Minimum Temperature 0 ** Note: Hayden weather station moved from valley to bench in 1970s -5-10 -15 Tmin (F) -20-25 -30-35 -40-45 -50 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Date
Dry Lake SNOTEL WY 2010 and 2011
What about the future
Increases in greenhouse gases are real, large and continuing
Of course, there is uncertainty, but from the best available scientific understanding, warming is likely to continue and accelerate.
Projections: Temperature near Steamboat Range of projections Model Projections Summers warm more than winters Average summer temps similar to hottest days in the past few years Earlier spring Observations Historical range
Precipitation is harder to say Most recent 12-month period (Sep 2009 Aug 2010) (Period of Record 1895-2010)??
The future will unfold and we can observer it together http://climatetrends.colostate.edu
This website is a resource that anyone can use to keep tabs on Colorado s observed climate its variations and trends. http://climatetrends.colostate.edu
And by the way, we could use your help
) If you are interested in weather and the variations in precipitation, please join the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network ttp://www.cocorahs.org
Rain! Hail! Snow! CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow) A simple but effective way to help scientists track Colorado Climate http://www.cocorahs.org
Join Us! Visit the CoCoRaHS Web Site http://www.cocorahs.org Support for this project provided by NOAA Environmental Literacy Program and many local charter sponsors.
2) Help us Celebrate Water 2012 Our goal -- a rain gauge at every school in Colorado to help spread experience, knowledge and appreciation for where our water comes from -- help sponsor your favorite school(s) contact me
A Rain Gauge at Every School Seeking: Sponsors to purchase gauges Mentors to assist/train teachers Teachers to participate with students Contact: Noah Newman: noah@cocorahs.org Or Nolan Doesken nolan.doesken@colostate.edu
Colorado: It s a great place but we have to be ready for anything Photo by Lynn Kral, Loveland, January 2006
Colorado Climate Center Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Nolan.Doesken@Colostate.edu