Climate outlook, longer term assessment and regional implications What s Ahead for Agriculture: How to Keep One of Our Key Industries Sustainable Bureau of Meteorology presented by Dr Jeff Sabburg Business Breakfast, Emerald, 8 November 2013, hosted by Overview Where to find information and providing feedback Climate and tropical cyclone outlook Longer term assessment including looking back Regional impacts Key points and take home advice 1
or WATL http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/ 2
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Climate Outlook (including TC outlook) Median Maps: Max Temp Rainfall Min Temp Emerald: 230 mm 4
Percent Consistent: November to January Max Temp Rainfall Min Temp Rainfall Outlook: November to January Emerald: 75% chance of at least 140 mm 5
Max Temperature Outlook: November to January Median range: 33 to 36ºC Min Temperature Outlook: November to January Median range: 18 to 21ºC 6
NINO 3.4 SOI http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de 7
Longer Term Assessment (including looking back) 8
What s going on? In the past 12-month period a large number of mean temperature records have fallen across Australia including: Australia s warmest month on record (January 2013) Australia s warmest summer on record (December 2012 to February 2013) Australia s (& QLD) warmest September on record Australia s warmest 12-month period on record broken for the third month running, for the periods ending August, September and October (& QLD ending September). Larger spatial scale! The prediction continuum 9
Basis of a numerical weather/climate model Note that not all variables are direct outputs from the models; For this talk the focus will be on temperature. 10
Forecast & rainfall districts 35. Central Highlands Number: 35027 Opened: 1882 Closed: 30 June 1992 Number: 35264 Opened: 1981 http://www.google.com/earth/ 11
472 m (31190) MAREEBA AIRPORT (Oct 1991 Jul 2002) 472 m (31210) MAREEBA AIRPORT (June 2000 - open) Differentiate between the variability & trend: 472 m (31190) MAREEBA AIRPORT (Oct 1991 Jul 2002) 472 m (31210) MAREEBA AIRPORT (June 2000 - open) 12
Linear trend (non-homogeneous data) 472 m (31190) MAREEBA AIRPORT (Oct 1991 Jul 2002) 472 m (31210) MAREEBA AIRPORT (June 2000 - open) 13
Australian annual-average daily mean temperatures showed little change from 1910 to 1950 but have progressively warmed since, increasing by about 0.9ºC from 1910 to 2011. State of the Climate (2012) 14
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WE SL 2009-10 2010-11 SST deciles for the past 4 wet seasons WL 2011-12 Neutral 2012-13 16
Assessment http://www.ipcc.ch/ [Approved Summary for Policymakers & final draft report WG1] Based on global combined land and ocean temperature - has warmed by about 0.89 C from 1901 to 2012. 17
Global mean sea level has risen by about 0.19 m, estimated from a linear trend over the period 1901 2010, based on tide gauge records and additionally on satellite data since 1993. 18
Model Attribution It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20 th century. Projected Change Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21 st century is likely to exceed 1.5ºC relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2ºC for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 19
Extreme weather and climate events Precipitation & droughts 20
Climate Drivers El Niño and related precipitation variability By the mid- to late 21 st century, projections include an intensification of both El-Niño-driven drying in the western Pacific Ocean and rainfall increases in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Scott Power et al. (2013) Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability, doi:10.1038/nature. 21
Regional Implications An update of the State of the Climate report will be provided on the Bureau s website in the first quarter of 2014; Various QLD Government projects are underway, e.g. a Q-DAFF project which is developing spatial mapping products to provide information on extremes of climate risk for agriculture across the state (targeting mainly grazing, cropping, horticulture and forestry industries). But how do we get higher resolution? Larger spatial scale! The prediction continuum 22
The Scaling Issue Previous report: Climate change in the Central Queensland Region 23
8 Clusters of 56 NRM Regions A new approach: climate futures Matrix based on changes in temperature and rainfall mock-up using AR4: (46 models used in CMIP5) 24
http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.com.au/ Key Points The climate outlook for November to January is for dry, warm conditions, with ENSO conditions to remain neutral into 2014; There has been a long term warming trend over the continent and surrounding oceans, and the Bureau is expecting a warm end to the year, most likely setting an Australian warmest year on record; The relationship between individual weather/climate events and climate-change is not straight-forward (attribution is increased over large spatial, long temporal scales and regions with low natural climate variability); The earth (based on combined land and ocean temperatures) has warmed by about 0.89 C between 1901 to 2012 and we have seen record high temperatures becoming more common and record low temperatures less common; 25
Key Points (cont.) Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21 st century is likely to exceed 1.5ºC for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6; An increase in the frequency, intensity, and/or amount of heavy precipitation events are very likely over most land areas by the late 21 st century; Increases in intensity and/or duration of drought are likely in many regions; By the mid- to late twenty-first century, projections include an intensification of El-Niño-driven drying in the western Pacific Ocean; The Bureau will continue to provide environmental intelligence so keep an eye on the Bureau's website: www.bom.gov.au Keeping One of Our Key Industries Sustainable Factor climate information into your medium to long-term risk assessment plans, such as regional 'climate futures' when it becomes available, but also the following general expectations: Surface temperature warming trends are expected to continue; Generally speaking you will wait longer, but then expect more intense rainfall events; Increases in the intensity and/or duration of drought are likely; Generally speaking, 'Climate Change' increases the risk of extreme weather events, e.g. Bush-Fires. Provide continuing feedback to the Bureau on its products and services, e.g. via 26
Climate outlook, longer term assessment and regional implications THANK YOU Business Breakfast, Emerald, 8 November 2013, hosted by 27