Celebrating the Climate Prediction Center s 25 th Anniversary: Current NCEP Climate Activities Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP The 29 th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop University of Wisconsin, Madison October 18, 2004 Where America s Climate and Weather Services Begin 1
Outline General Background: History of CPC The NOAA Forecast Process NCEP Overview: The Climate Mission NWS and NCEP Climate Support Computer Resources Environmental Modeling Center Reanalysis Climate Forecast System Climate Test Bed Summary/Future Opportunities 2
General Background: History of CPC First Global Center for NMC First center to push beyond the weather barrier A focal point for the transition from Climate Analysis to Climate Prediction Is now a fundamental component of today s NOAA Forecast Process 3
The Path to NOAA s Seamless Suite of NWS Products and Forecast Services Observe e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers Process Products & Forecast Services Central Local Guidance Offices Respond & Feedback IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Distribute Research, Development and Technology Infusion Feedback 4
NCEP Mission Statement NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation s economy and support the nation s growing need for environmental information. NCEP Strategic Vision Striving to be America s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. Aviation Weather Center Space Environment Center Storm Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center 5
Climate Mission CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains. Focus is on Week-2 to Seasonal-to-Interannual (to decadal forecasts??) Official products for the U.S. Forecasts in collaboration with - CDC, HPC, IRI Foundation for NWS Seamless Suite of Products 6
7 ENVIRONMENT STATE/LOCAL PLANNING COMMERCE ENERGY HEALTH RESERVOIR CONTROL ECOSYSTEM AGRICULTURE RECREATION HYDROPOWER FIRE WEATHER SPACE OPERATIONS TRANSPORTATION FLOOD MITIGATION & NAVIGATION PROTECTION OF LIFE & PROPERTY THREATS ASSESSMENTS FORECASTS WATCHES WARNINGS & ALERT COORDINATION OUTLOOKS GUIDANCE
NWS Support for Climate Services All NCEP products linked directly to: 122 Weather Forecast Offices 13 River Forecast Centers 22 Central Weather Service Units EMC testing regional climate models for downscaling purposes NWS Regions assigning climate focal points for each station with training outreach materials Coop modernization Reference Climate Network 8
NCEP Climate Support $20M/Year Investment Of which $5M is for Climate Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) 2.4x upgrade operational by mid-january, 2005 Backup in Fairmont, WV operational by mid-january, 2005 9 1/3 for climate applications to support Climate Test Bed
NCEP Climate Support EMC Organization Marine & Coastal Ocean Mesoscale Atmosphere Global Climate & Weather (Atm. Ocean& Land) Science Team Leads X X X Data Assimilation - John Derber X X Climate Hua Lu Pan X X X Models - Atmosphere/Ocean/Land/Ice; Dynamics; Physics X X X Land Surface/Hydrology - Ken Mitchell X X Ensembles & Probabilistic Guidance X X X Hurricanes Naomi Surgi X X X Products Development; Utilization
NCEP Climate Support: Reanalysis Global T62(~210 km)/28 level, global domain Used as benchmark to measure model improvement Waiting on funding;working with NASA/GSFC Review paper for Climate Change Science Program Regional 32 km, 45 layer, domain covers N. and C. America, Includes precipitation assimilation Includes most recent Noah land model Completed 24 years of RR production in just over 3 months Real-time update now executing Output available through NCDC 11
NCEP Climate Support: Coupled Climate Forecast System (implemented August 24, 2004) 1. Atmospheric component Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical Recent upgrades in model physics Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997) 2. Oceanic component GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) 1/3 x1 in tropics; 1 x1 in extratropics; 40 layers Quasi-global domain (74 S to 64 N) Free surface 3. Coupled model Once-a-day coupling Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology
Composite
Most Recent CFS Latest CPC Forecast: Warm episode El Nino conditions are expected to continue into early 2005. 14
Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 DJF 03/04) The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability in the Tropical Pacific on S/I timescales, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts. 15
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THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED 08 October 2004 Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications.
Climate Test Bed Mission: To accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications Bridging the Valley of Death between research and operational service applications High profile activities Operational CFS/GFS assessments Multi-model ensembles Climate product and applications development Climate Process and modeling Team (CPT) interactions Climate reanalysis and data impact 19
CTB ORGANIZATION Deputy EMC Oversight Board CPC CDC EMC GFDL IRI NCPO Director CPC Science Advisory Board Program Manager NCPO Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR OST OCCWS EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points) Science / Software Support from Contractors; TA s, SA s Test Bed Users
Climate Test Bed Status Director (Wayne Higgins of CPC) and Deputy Director (Hua Lu Pan of EMC) named Resource allocation ongoing (within NCEP) Additional resources being provided through NOAA Climate Program Office (NCPO) CTB teams (Oversight Board, Science Advisory Board and Climate Science Teams) being organized. 21
Summary NOAA/NWS provide critical operational support to climate-weather product stream NCEP/CPC focus: seasonal-interannual-decadal Infrastructure support is in place Computers Data assimilation (ocean, land and atmosphere) Coupled global model (atmosphere, land, ocean) Product generation, product dissemination Climate Test Bed Partnerships are critical element of success OGP, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, CDC, NCDC, COLA and others 22
Future Opportunities Extend ability to provide seasonal prediction (time, space, regime) THORPEX/IPY ( 07/ 08): climate/weather linkage Ecosystem forecasts: enhancing the application of climate predictions Climate Test Bed 23
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OPERATIONAL COUPLED LAND-ATMOSPHERE ETA MODEL del captures interannual variability of daytime max temperature and model soil moist July 1999 July 2000 relatively moist Eta model end-of-month 2nd layer volumetric soil moisture relatively dry 30 Eta model monthly- 29 C mean 2-m (C) air 33 C 32 obs temperature vs obs: obs interior Southwest 23 16 Eta 00 12 24 36 48 Eta forecast hour interior Southwest Figure 6. Upper: Eta model layer 2 (10-40 cm) volumetric soil moisture is relatively moist (dry) in July 1999, left (July 2000, right). Lower: Verification of operational Eta model multi-station,monthly-mean 2-m air temperature for interior Southwest: moister and cooler (warmer and drier) conditions in July 1999, left (July 2000, right) are well-captured. 24 16 Eta 00 12 24 36 48 Eta forecast hour
Most recent upgrade in Noah land model physics: snowpack physics Eliminate early bias in springtime depletion of significant winter snowpack Revised physics of: A) surface evaporation over patchy snow cover B) surface albedo over snow cover Winter 1996-1997 Mean snow water equivalent (SWE) over 110 SNOTEL sites of western CONUS. Control Noah run: green Revised Noah run: yellow Obs (SNOTEL): black From N. American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) 27