Page 1 Current NHC Forecast Predictions Maximum Sustained Winds / Storm Category: 138 MPH / Category 4 Forward motion: 9 mph towards the North Hurricane Force winds extend from the center: 46 miles Tropical Storm winds extend from the center: 173 miles Minimum Pressure: 949 MB Storm Position: 19.8N, 74.3W Estimated Coastal Strike County/Parish: Carteret, North Carolina Watches and Warnings Hurricane Watch from Golden Beach, FL to Deerfield Beach, FL Hurricane Watch from Deerfield Beach, FL to Volusia/Brevard County Ln, FL Tropical Storm Watch from Ocean Reef, FL to Golden Beach, FL Tropical Storm Watch from Seven Mile Bridge, FL to Ocean Reef, FL Page 1
Page 2 Point Harbor, NC Point Harbor, NC is expected to receive a moderate impact from. The forecast maximum wind for this location has decreased since the last forecast advisory by 17 MPH Easterly gale force winds should start affecting the area on Saturday, October 8th at 7 PM EDT with storm force winds arriving around 10 PM EDT. The highest wind speeds from should occur near 10 PM EDT when top sustained winds, from the Northeast, could reach 69 MPH with gusts near 90 MPH. Winds should decrease below storm force shortly thereafter. Sustained winds will fall below gale force after 12 AM EDT and generally be from the Northwest during this period of decreasing winds. Expect gusts above gale force level for several more hours thereafter. Wind damage from could include some loss of roofing material, gutters and/or awning and loss of vinyl or metal siding. The total rainfall for the Point Harbor area over the next 5 days is forecast to be 4.2 inches. This can vary The astronomical tidal variation for this location is less than 2 feet. Currituck, NC Currituck, NC is expected to receive a moderate impact from. The forecast maximum wind for this location has decreased since the last forecast advisory by 28 MPH Easterly gale force winds should start affecting the area on Saturday, October 8th at 5 PM EDT with storm force winds arriving around 9 PM EDT. The highest wind speeds from should occur near 10 PM EDT when top sustained winds, from the Northeast, could reach 66 MPH with gusts near 86 MPH. Winds should decrease below storm force shortly thereafter. Sustained winds will fall below gale force after 1 AM EDT and generally be from the North during this period of decreasing winds. Expect gusts above gale force level for several more hours thereafter. Wind damage from could include some loss of roofing material, gutters and/or awning and loss of vinyl or metal siding. The total rainfall for the Currituck area over the next 5 days is forecast to be 4.2 inches. This can vary Page 2
Page 3 Currituck County, NC Currituck County, NC is expected to receive a moderate impact from. The forecast maximum wind for this location has increased since the last forecast advisory by 5 MPH Easterly gale force winds should start affecting the area on Saturday, October 8th at 8 PM EDT with storm force winds arriving around 12 AM EDT. The highest wind speeds from should occur near 12 AM EDT when top sustained winds, from the North, could reach 62 MPH with gusts near 80 MPH. Winds should decrease below storm force shortly thereafter. Sustained winds will fall below gale force after 1 AM EDT and generally be from the Northwest during this period of decreasing winds. Expect gusts above gale force level for several more hours thereafter. Wind damage from could include some loss of roofing material, gutters and/or awning and loss of vinyl or metal siding. The total rainfall for the Currituck County area over the next 5 days is forecast to be 4.2 inches. This can vary The highest winds will occur near high tide with a tide height of 3.0 feet... perhaps increasing the coastal flooding potential. Barco, NC Barco, NC is expected to receive a minor impact from. The forecast maximum wind for this location has decreased since the last forecast advisory by 8 MPH Easterly gale force winds should start affecting the area on Saturday, October 8th at 8 PM EDT. The highest wind speeds from should occur near 10 PM EDT when top sustained winds, from the Northeast, could reach 56 MPH with gusts near 73 MPH. Winds should decrease below gale force shortly thereafter. Sustained winds will fall below gale force after 12 AM EDT and generally be from the Northwest during this period of decreasing winds. Expect gusts above gale force level for several more hours thereafter. Some minor residential wind damage may occur from in Barco. The total rainfall for the Barco area over the next 5 days is forecast to be 4.2 inches. This can vary The highest winds will occur during a rising tide with the tide height of 2.3 feet. The next high tide will have a height of 3.3 feet, 3 hours past the time of maximum winds. Page 3
Page 4 Corolla, NC Corolla, NC is expected to receive a minor impact from. The forecast maximum wind for this location has decreased since the last forecast advisory by 23 MPH Easterly gale force winds should start affecting the area on Saturday, October 8th at 8 PM EDT. The highest wind speeds from should occur near 10 PM EDT when top sustained winds, from the Northeast, could reach 52 MPH with gusts near 67 MPH. Winds should decrease below gale force 3 hours later. Sustained winds will fall below gale force after 1 AM EDT and generally be from the Northwest during this period of decreasing winds. Expect gusts above gale force level for several more hours thereafter. Some minor residential wind damage may occur from in Corolla. The total rainfall for the Corolla area over the next 5 days is forecast to be 4.1 inches. This can vary The highest winds will occur during a rising tide with the tide height of 2.3 feet. The next high tide will have a height of 3.3 feet, 3 hours past the time of maximum winds. Jarvisburg, NC Jarvisburg, NC is expected to receive a minor impact from. The forecast maximum wind for this location has decreased since the last forecast advisory by 12 MPH Easterly gale force winds should start affecting the area on Saturday, October 8th at 8 PM EDT. The highest wind speeds from should occur near 10 PM EDT when top sustained winds, from the Northeast, could reach 51 MPH with gusts near 66 MPH. Winds should decrease below gale force shortly thereafter. Sustained winds will fall below gale force after 12 AM EDT and generally be from the Northwest during this period of decreasing winds. Expect gusts above gale force level for several more hours thereafter. Some minor residential wind damage may occur from in Jarvisburg. The total rainfall for the Jarvisburg area over the next 5 days is forecast to be 4.2 inches. This can vary The highest winds will occur during a rising tide with the tide height of 1.9 feet. The next high tide will have a height of 3.2 feet, 3 hours past the time of maximum winds. Page 4
Page 5 Moyock, NC Moyock, NC is expected to receive a minimal impact from. The forecast maximum wind for this location has decreased since the last forecast advisory by 19 MPH The highest wind speeds from should occur near Saturday, October 8th at 10 PM EDT when top sustained winds, from the Northeast, could reach 39 MPH with gusts near 52 MPH. No real wind damage should occur from in Moyock. The total rainfall for the Moyock area over the next 5 days is forecast to be 4.1 inches. This can vary Page 5
Page 6 NHC Public Advisory TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016 AL142016...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW ALREADY POUNDING THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 74.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been extended southward to Golden Beach, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... Haiti Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... Cuban province of Camaguey Golden Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Seven Mile Bridge to south of Golden Beach Lake Okeechobee Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 74.3 West. Matthew is moving Page 6
Page 7 NHC Public Advisory toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). On this track the eye of Matthew will move over the extreme portion of eastern Cuba in the next few hours. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected by Wednesday, followed by a northwest turn Wednesday night. Matthew is expected to move near or over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Wednesday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through at least Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting portions of Haiti. Hurricane conditions are likely occuring over eastern Cuba, and will begin in the southeastern Bahamas this evening, the central Bahamas on Wednesday, and the northwestern Bahamas Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue spreading across the remainder of Haiti, eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring in portions the Dominican Republic within the warning area, and these conditions will spread northward into the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba tonight with tropical storm conditions possible later tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition are also possible in the Florida tropical storm watch area by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...4 to 6 inches, isolated 12 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches, isolated 3 inches Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida...4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches Middle to Lower Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Page 7
Page 8 NHC Public Advisory Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line...3 to 5 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is the potential for life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours along the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Volusia/Brevard county line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. Forecaster Avila Page 8