Severe Weather Potential for Southeast Texas Dan Reilly, Kent Prochazka, Scott Overpeck National Weather Service Houston/Galveston 10 am
Synopsis Storm to likely bring severe weather to Southeast Texas especially tonight and Wednesday morning; some threat northern counties today Flash flooding, tornadoes the greatest threats; damaging wind gusts, hail also possible Mostly minor coastal flooding possible tonight especially Gulf facing beaches High winds and seas in the marine areas 10 am
Tornado Watch until 1 pm Current Conditions Thunderstorm complex moving through Central and North Texas This may clip our northwest portions of the forecast area Tornado Watch in effect until 1 pm for those areas Additional development possible early this afternoon northern counties For rest of area main threat is tonight and Wednesday morning
Flash Flood Watch Tuesday/Wednesday Flash Flood Watch from 12PM Tuesday to 6PM Wednesday. Rainfall amounts: 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches.
Marine Weather Hazards Tuesday/Wednesday Gale Warning: 6PM Tuesday to 6AM Wednesday Winds SE 20-30 knots gusts 40-45 knots Seas building to 10-14 feet with occasional 16 feet. Small Craft Advisory for Galveston and Matagorda Bays.
Coastal Flood Warning Tuesday/Wednesday Coastal Flood Warning from 12PM Tuesday to 12PM Wednesday. Tides 1-2 feet above normal. Water levels reaching 3-4 feet above MLLW. Surf run up increasing coastal flood threat.
Timing of Heavy Rainfall & Severe Weather 9AM 12PM 3PM 6PM 9PM 12AM 3AM 6AM 9AM College Station Severe Severe None None None Severe Severe Severe Severe Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Greatest Flash Flood Potential Houston None None None None None Severe Severe Severe Severe Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Greatest Flash Flood Potential Galveston None None None None None Severe Severe Severe Severe Severe Weather Risk Tuesday Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Severe Weather Threats: Tornadoes (primary) Damaging Winds Hail Wednesday Greatest Flash Flood Potential Flash Flood Potential: Flooding possible with 4-5 of rain over a 3 hour period. Low lying areas flood quickly. Rapid responses on area bayous.
Severe Weather Tuesday night/wednesday Severe Weather Threat: Enhanced (3) Timing: 9PM Tuesday to 9AM Wednesday (some threat earlier northern counties) Threats: Tornadoes (primary) Damaging Winds Hail Forecaster Confidence Low High
3 Day Total Precipitation Forecast Valid: March 8 11, 2016 Forecast Summary Flash Flood Watch from 12 Noon Today through Wednesday Afternoon Dangerous Flood Potential Tonight and Wednesday 3-Day Expected Rainfall: 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts up to 12 inches possible
Summary Storm to likely bring severe weather to Southeast Texas especially tonight and Wednesday morning Flash flooding the greatest threat; tornadoes, damaging wind gusts also possible Mostly minor coastal flooding possible tonight especially Gulf facing beaches High winds and seas in the marine areas Longer term flooding still a threat for rivers, bayous for later in week as additional bouts of rain possible Trinity River at Liberty could go moderate to major flooding depending on where rain falls Cypress Creek and Greens Bayou also need to watch 10 am