Expansion of NCEP Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Model Forecast Guidance to all Global Tropical Cyclones Dr. Vijay Tallapragada, Hurricane Team Leader & HFIP Development Manager, EMC/NCEP NOAA National Weather Service, USA APEC 2015 IWTF May 27-29, 2015; Chinese Taipei, Taiwan
Outline Hurricane Forecast Improvements from Operational HWRF Modeling System Significant progress in the past three years A success story driven by support from NOAA s HFIP HWRF as a unique high-resolution regional tropical cyclone model with global coverage HWRF will run in real-time operationally at NCEP for all tropical cyclones of the global tropical oceanic basins Model of choice for NHC, JTWC and other operational agencies across the Asia Pacific and North Indian Ocean region Next generation model development efforts and plans for future HWRF transitioning towards unified NMMB/NEMS infrastructure Focus on representing Multi-Scale interactions in a global framework for high fidelity TC forecasts HWRF as a community modeling system for effective R2O The only operational atmosphere-ocean coupled hurricane model available to the research community Partnerships and collaborations between research and operations key for success International Collaborations Engaged in active collaborations with several international tropical cyclone forecast agencies in the Asia Pacific Region with emphasis on capacity building, joint research programs, and sharing data and knowledge Scientific Challenges for improved tropical cyclone forecasts Data assimilation, initialization and improved use of observations Advanced scale-aware physics for more accurate representation of physical processes 2
Successes to date: HWRF Intensity Forecast Improvements HWRF WPAC 2012-2014 JTWC WPAC 2012-2014 Dramatic improvement in first 5 years of HFIP NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Meeting the Nation s Needs http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/ 3
Successes to date: HWRF/GFDL/COAMPS-TC ensembles HWRF EPS 20 members GFDL EPS 10 members COAMPS-TC EPS 10 members NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Meeting the Nation s Needs http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/ 4
Successes to date: Impact of aircraft observations: Arthur 2014 5 P-3 Flights 2 July 5 July 2014 5 P-3 missions from 2-5 July 2014 at 12 h Doppler sampling (HEDAS/GSI) & 3 G-IV missions Sampled Arthur as a tropical storm to hurricane at landfall in NC, to extra-tropical transition in Nova Scotia Doppler data transmitted in real-time for assimilation into HWRF HWRF 2015 EnVAR DA to include 40-member high-res 2km ensembles for TDR data assimilation 5 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Meeting the Nation s Needs 5
6 Advanced Forecast Products from Operational HWRF Simulated radar reflectivity, synthetic satellite imagery & HD graphical products Accurate and skillful track and intensity forecasts from operational HWRF for major typhoons in the North Western Pacific Basin.
7 Advanced Storm Surge and Wave Products from Operational HWRF Coupled to ADCIRC and WaveWatch III Center-most Left-most Max. Right-most Peak 20 HWRF Ensemble Tracks
8 Advanced River Routing and Streamflow Products from Operational HWRF Coupled to Land Hydrology 2015 HWRF is coupled to advanced NOAH Land Surface Model for more accurate prediction of postlandfall impacts (streamflow, freshwater flooding and inundation) using NLDAS and GLDAS
Operational HWRF as a Community Modeling System Across the World For our international partners, NOAA is engaged in Capacity building Technology transfer Training to NWP staff and forecasters Design of suite of products based on forecaster needs Establishing strong research component by including government labs and academic institutes Promoting joint and sustainable collaborative research for future advancements Developing a stronger and effective mechanism for transitioning advanced research to operations Looking for expanding the HWRF scope and applications to assist disaster mitigation and support services Extended outreach through training on advanced HWRF model for operations and research. Available to the research community through support from HFIP & DTC for accelerated R2O National Weather Service 9 9
Ocean and Wave Coupling for better representation of air-sea interactions 10
Future Directions for HWRF Advanced High-Resolution Multi-scale Global Air-Sea-Wave Coupled Tropical Cyclone Prediction System to address the Next Generation Forecaster needs Can we forecast eye-wall replacement cycles? 9 11
Recognition from US Dept. of Commerce: The 2014 Gold Medal for the HWRF Team Vijay Tallapragada; Qingfu Liu; William Lapenta; Richard Pasch; James Franklin; Simon Tao-Long Hsiao; Frederick Toepfer; Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan; Thiago Quirino & Frank Marks, Jr. This medal is a testament to your hard work, dedication, and passion for public service. I am so proud of the many contributions you and the other award recipients have made across the breadth of the NOAA mission, especially using your expertise and creativity to develop and implement an advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System model, which significantly improves hurricane intensity prediction. You are a fine example of the wonderful talent we have in this agency. Congratulations, and thank you on behalf of NOAA and the Nation! Kathryn D. Sullivan, PhD Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Department of Commerce 12
Acknowledgements: HWRF team at EMC; EMC, DTC and HFIP Management; Collaborations with national and international operational and research agencies and academia Summary/Concluding Remarks HWRF has been performing consistently better than other regional models in all global tropical cyclone basins. 2015 HWRF will be run operationally by NCEP starting on June 9, 2015 at 2km resolution with advanced physics, data assimilation and forecast products for accurate and reliable guidance on track, intensity, size, structure and downstream applications including waves, surge, flooding and inundation Focused development and T&E, collaboration among the best of the minds, sufficient computational resources and effective R2O strategies will enable us to reach or exceed the goals set by NOAA HFIP Next generation Hurricane Forecast System will include global-to-local scale predictions with emphasis on multi-scale interactions and improved forecasts for landfalling storms and downstream applications Real-time and pre-implementation T&E HWRF products: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/index.html