Satellite data for hydrological forecasting Current use at ECMWF and perspective Shopping list! Our current tools does not allow direct use, but could be modified Christel Prudhomme Christel.prudhomme@ecmwf.int ECMWF February 27, 2018
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 8/23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague The European Flood Awareness System EFAS notification system 2 - Model European twice 3 Products daily discharge Post-processing Warta, PL 21/02/2012 12 UTC LISFLOOD Real-time data (EU-FLOOD-GIS/ETN-R) 1- Data (obs and NWP) Historical Data Static Data Europ. Data Layers Meteo Data / forecasts 5 Possible actions Spatial resolution 5 km EFAS partner network Alert email EFAS user interface Expert Knowledge of Member States 4 Alerts No satellite information used
Hydrological forecasting How much water is in my river? Atmospheric forcing -> when/ where precipitation -> evaporative losses Land surface initial states -> water already in the catchment (soil, snow, reservoirs) -> saturation of stores in the catchment
Hydrological modelling in general, and forecasting at ECMWF Static information but could be regularly/dynamically updated Vegetation phenology -> Proxy for irrigated area -> Water resource/ evaporation feedback River network < 10m (width, geometry) Lakes/ wetlands extend Reservoir level -> reservoir management Land use Crop/ vegetation cycles Population centres/ movement -> water use (droughts) -> exposure/ impact High resolution urban area information < 2m -> better process understanding -> better runoff/ infiltration EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS 4
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 8/23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague Hydrological forecast at ECMWF - Near real time information EFAS notification system 2 - Model LISFLOOD European twice daily discharge Real-time data (EU-FLOOD-GIS/ETN-R) 1- Data (obs and NWP) Historical Data Static Data Europ. Data Layers Meteo Data / forecasts Last observation input (once per 24h) Spatial resolution 5 km Start forecast (every 12 h; soon 6h) Expert Knowledge of Member States Fill-in period Atmospheric forcing from climatology Up to 18 h Real-time Precip -> better forcing and initial conditions at start forecast Soil moisture -> better store stock/ initial conditions at start forecast
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 8/23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague Hydrological forecast at ECMWF - Near real time information EFAS notification system 2 - Model European twice daily discharge Post-processing LISFLOOD 3 Products Warta, PL 21/02/2012 12 UTC Real-time data (EU-FLOOD-GIS/ETN-R) 1- Data (obs and NWP) Historical Data Static Data Europ. Data Layers Meteo Data / forecasts Expert Knowledge of Member States Spatial resolution 5 km Stat post-processing to reduce Discharge errors -> River water level/ discharge -> Soil moisture anomalies (drought) -> Flood/ wetland extent All if possible at <10m resolution, hourly
Flash flood indicator and verification? Very limited global information (discharge and flood) Database e.g. FloodList.com Limited coverage e.g. 2,962 events record from 2015 present 50 km 2 < Ups Area < 2000 km 2 Lightening, as proxy for flash flood (convective activities)
Coastal flooding? Red is flooding as recorded by lower backscatter in Jan. 11 Sentinel 1 SAR image, compared to previous image Dec. 24. Image courtesy of the European Space Agency Surface water depth coastal area -> backwater movement simulation -> DA in hydrological models for improved costal flood forecasting systems? 8
Thank you 9