Preliminary Results from Coordinated Sea-Level Rise Modeling Using SLAMM, the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, Across the US Gulf of Mexico Coast

Preliminary Results from Coordinated Sea-Level Rise Modeling Using SLAMM, the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, Across the US Gulf of Mexico Coast James W. Pahl, Ph.D., and Kristin DeMarco, State of Louisiana Jonathan Clough, Warren Pinnacle Consulting Kathleen Freeman and Laura Geselbracht, The Nature Conservancy Florida Chapter Alicia Bihler, Heidi Beck and Melissa Kemm, Duke University Presentation at the 6 th National Conference on Coastal and Estuarine Habitat Restoration (2012 Restore America s Estuaries Conference) Tampa, Florida Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Sea-Level Rise as a Priority Topic for the Gulf of Mexico Alliance Initial Gulf of Mexico Alliance efforts included Direct Alliance funding of some sea-level rise modeling efforts,

Sea-Level Rise as a Priority Topic for the Gulf of Mexico Alliance Initial Gulf of Mexico Alliance efforts included Direct Alliance funding of some sea-level rise modeling efforts, Indirect support of efforts supporting Alliance priorities, and E.g. US EPA Gulf of Mexico Program has funded projects pursuant to goals of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance, including the Habitat Conservation and Restoration Priority Issue Team

Sea-Level Rise as a Priority Topic for the Gulf of Mexico Alliance Initial Gulf of Mexico Alliance efforts included Direct Alliance funding of some sea-level rise modeling efforts, Indirect support of efforts supporting Alliance priorities, and Coordination of external efforts. Recently, delivery of modeling data from disparate sources has created a large set of data to be more robustly mined for trends.

Criteria for Comparative Analysis Same technology - SLAMM versions 5 and 6 Same scenarios of future global sea-level rise by 2100 Most runs have looked at 0.39 meters (IPCC A1B-mean) 0.69 meters (IPCC A1B-max) 1 meter 1.5 meters Team has begun discussions of robust statistical analysis of entire collection of analyses across scenarios Presentation will focus only on modeling results assuming 1-meter global sea-level rise by 2100

Recent Sea-Level Rise Guidance http://www.coastalmasterplan.louisiana.gov/2012-master-plan/final-masterplan/

Recent Sea-Level Rise Guidance

Recent Sea-Level Rise Guidance http://coastal.la.gov/

Recent Sea-Level Rise Guidance http://www.miamidade.gov/ development/boards/climatechange-task-force.asp

Summary of Contributing Efforts US Fish & Wildlife Service, National Wildlife Refuge System Funding from US Fish & Wildlife Service Sites Aransas National Wildlife Refuge, TX Bayou Sauvage National Wildlife Refuge, LA Big Branch National Wildlife Refuge, LA Bon Secour National Wildlife Refuge, AL Delta National Wildlife Refuge, LA Sabine National Wildlife Refuge, LA Shell Keys National Wildlife Refuge, LA St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, FL

Summary of Contributing Efforts Gulf of Mexico Alliance, Habitat Conservation & Restoration Team and Coastal Community Resilience Team Funding from NOAA Cooperative Agreements Sites Galveston Bay, TX Grand Bay NERR and Environs, MS Saint Andrew & Choctawhatchee Bays, FL South Jefferson County, TX

Summary of Contributing Efforts Gulf of Mexico Alliance, Habitat Conservation & Restoration Team Funding from NOAA Cooperative Agreement in support of US Fish & Wildlife Service Sites Great White Heron National Wildlife Refuge, FL Lower Suwannee River National Wildlife Refuge, FL Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, MS San Bernard and Big Boggy National Wildlife Refuges, TX Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge, FL

Summary of Contributing Efforts The Nature Conservancy Florida Chapter Funding from EPA Gulf of Mexico Program and other funds Sites Apalachicola Bay, FL Charlotte Harbor, FL Corpus Christi Bay, TX Mobile Bay, AL Pensacola Bay, FL Southern Big Bend, FL Tampa Bay, FL

Summary of Contributing Efforts Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences Funding by the Nicholas School Sites Lafourche Parish, LA St. Mary Parish, LA Vermilion Parish, LA

Spatial Coverage of Component Analyses Land/wetland area modeled 14,800,123 acres modeled across five Gulf states Alabama: 90,968 acres Florida: 6,941,504 acres Louisiana: 2,883,883 acres Mississippi: 23,496 acres Texas: 4,331,723 acres NOTE: By-state totals do not include 78,759-acre Grand Bay NERR & Environs Area modeled by Warren Pinnacle (split between AL & MS)

Spatial Coverage of Component Analyses Area of analysis covers coastal areas of four Department of Interior Land Conservation Cooperatives Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Gulf Coast Prairie Peninsular Florida South Atlantic

Initial Results

Change in Habitat Acreage 1 meter SLR by 2100

Global Sea-Level Rise Curves GULF SEA LEVEL (meters above 1992) 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 1.5-m Scenario 1.0-m Scenario 0.5-m Scenario Historic Linear (2.4 mm/yr) 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 YEAR

Change in Habitat Acreage 1 meter SLR by 2100

Lower Suwannee National Wildlife Refuge, FL INITIAL CONDITION

Lower Suwannee National Wildlife Refuge, FL INITIAL CONDITION 2025

Lower Suwannee National Wildlife Refuge, FL INITIAL CONDITION 2050

Lower Suwannee National Wildlife Refuge, FL INITIAL CONDITION 2075

Lower Suwannee National Wildlife Refuge, FL INITIAL CONDITION 2100

Change in Habitat Acreage 1 meter SLR by 2100

Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve and Environs, AL & MS

Next Steps Re-analyze non-comparable SLAMM model applications to allow for subsequent inclusion into this analysis E.g. National Wildlife Federation effort modeled approx. 39,000 square kilometers (9,637,000 acres) of southeastern Louisiana s Mississippi River delta using Rahmstorf and Vermeer (2009) scenarios of 0.6- and 1.9-m SLR by 2100

Additional SLAMM Analyses Other SLAMM Model Runs for the US Gulf Coast Gulf Coast of Florida (University of Florida, sponsored by US Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research & Development Program) Southeastern Louisiana (Warren Pinnacle Consulting, sponsored by National Wildlife Federation)

Next Steps Re-analyze non-comparable SLAMM model applications to allow for subsequent inclusion into this analysis Coordinate data access with comparable modeling efforts in Mexico

Non-SLAMM Sea-Level Rise Analyses Modeling analysis for 2012 revision to State of Louisiana s Comprehensive Master Plan NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research, Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico project

Next Steps Re-analyze non-comparable SLAMM model applications to allow for subsequent inclusion into this analysis Coordinate data access with comparable modeling efforts in Mexico Bring all available data into conservation planning tools (Brenner presentation) Perform formal statistical analysis across domains, across all scenarios and time steps Compare SLAMM model run outputs to other technologies applied to same domains Explore technical improvements to existing and next generation of models (Ramseur and DeMarco presentation)

Next Steps Re-analyze non-comparable SLAMM model applications to allow for subsequent inclusion into this analysis Coordinate data access with comparable modeling efforts in Mexico Bring all available data into conservation planning tools Perform formal statistical analysis across domains, across all scenarios and time steps Compare SLAMM model run outputs to other technologies applied to same domains Explore technical improvements to existing and next generation of models Incorporate data into Gulf-wide management strategies Suggestions for Other Next Steps?

Thanks for your time! Reports can be found at http://www.gulfofmexicoalliance.org/issues/habitat.php James Pahl, Louisiana Coastal Protection & Restoration Authority James.pahl@la.gov Questions?