SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Flagler County 61
SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Flagler County 62
SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Flagler County Pellicer Creek, FL 63
SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Flagler County Pellicer Creek, FL 64
SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Volusia County 65
SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Volusia County 66
SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Volusia County Ponce Inlet, FL 67
SWAN+ADCIRC Mesh Volusia County Ponce Inlet, FL 68
Initial Results Mesh Development Development of Seamless Topographic and Bathymetric Data Surface Development of ADCIRC Mesh Storm Climatology Validation Storm Selection Validation Comparisons 69
Storm Climatology: Storms in Study Area Tropical Storms: 1940-2010 Passing within 175 nm of Jacksonville Typically Category 1 or less at landfall 70
Storm Climatology: Storms in Study Area (Cont d) Tropical Storms: 1842-1939 Passing within 175 nm of Jacksonville Instances of greater than Category 3 storms 71
Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters Landfalling storms: 1940 2010 Central Pressure < 980 mb Category 1 or greater Limited activity in study area 72
Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters Analysis of important storm parameters (considered random in JPM-OS analysis) Central pressure Radius to maximum winds Forward speed Storm heading Holland s B (shape parameter) 73
Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Year month day hour Name Latitude 1940 8 11 21 NOT NAMED 32.25-80.70 973.0 27 8.52 277.01 1.00 1941 10 6 10 NOT NAMED 25.43-80.21 968.0 11 16.17 288.39 1.35 1945 9 15 22 NOT NAMED 25.40-80.23 951.0 12 12.08 311.72 1.30 1947 9 17 17 NOT NAMED 26.14-80.10 940.0 22 8.31 256.27 1.30 1947 10 15 12 NOT NAMED 31.90-81.00 968.2 16 12.78 265.90 1.30 1949 8 26 23 NOT NAMED 26.76-80.04 951.0 16 12.09 305.65 1.20 1950 10 18 6 KING 25.74-80.22 955.0 5 11.90 337.76 0.85 1952 8 31 2 ABLE 32.23-80.60 968.5 13 13.25 349.06 1.25 1954 10 15 14 HAZEL 33.90-78.56 937.0 15 40.24 5.72 0.90 1955 8 12 15 CONNIE 34.70-76.70 963.5 14 6.85 28.67 0.80 1959 9 29 18 GRACIE 32.40-80.40 955.7 28 12.94 328.50 1.30 1960 9 12 5 DONNA 34.68-77.08 959.0 36 21.09 25.32 1.10 1964 8 27 10 CLEO 26.02-80.10 966.0 13 8.45 341.42 1.35 1964 9 10 5 DORA 29.88-81.27 965.0 26 6.16 279.53 1.28 1979 9 3 17 DAVID 27.15-80.17 972.0 18 10.48 329.37 1.05 1979 9 4 18 DAVID 31.56-81.19 971.0 27 10.04 4.82 0.95 1984 9 13 7 DIANA 33.91-77.95 980.0 12 5.59 26.46 1.47 1989 9 22 4 HUGO 32.80-79.80 934.0 15 22.01 325.33 1.38 1992 8 24 9 ANDREW 25.51-80.32 922.0 9 17.28 277.06 1.48 1996 9 6 0 FRAN 33.90-78.09 955.0 40 16.08 339.15 1.20 1996 7 12 20 BERTHA 34.30-77.72 974.0 26 14.61 16.30 1.35 1998 8 27 3 BONNIE 34.29-77.72 964.0 39 5.27 18.24 1.07 1999 9 16 6 FLOYD 33.80-78.00 956.0 27 22.32 25.92 1.10 2004 9 5 5 FRANCES 27.18-80.17 960.0 33 7.40 285.87 1.35 2004 9 26 4 JEANNE 27.24-80.19 950.0 33 10.87 280.89 1.15 Longitude Central pressure Radius to Maximum Winds Forward Speed (kts) Storm Heading (deg) Holland's B 74
Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Analysis of other important parameters that influence storm surge Landfall location Tidal conditions 75
Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Reference set of 12,294 possible storms Executed storms on coarse resolution ADCIRC mesh to evaluate storm surge Reviewed results at selected locations along coast 76
Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Locations for reference and optimal set comparisons 77
Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) Optimized set of 178 storms Final SWAN+ADCIRC simulations apply storms 78
Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Parameters (Cont d) 2%-annualchance event 1%-annualchance event Comparison of reference set and optimal set at specific comparison locations Results indicate optimal set adequately reproduces reference values 79
Initial Results Mesh Development Development of Seamless Topographic and Bathymetric Data Surface Development of ADCIRC Mesh Storm Climatology Validation Storm Selection Validation Comparisons 80
Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events 1950-1959 Landfalling, bypassing, exiting storms that passed near study area 81
Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events 2000-2010 Landfalling, bypassing, exiting storms that passed near study area 82
Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events NOAA stations with water level (WL) data 83
Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) NOAA National Buoy Data Center (NDBC) stations with wave data 84
Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) Criteria Sorting of Storms 1. Local Landfall 2. Significant WL Difference 3. WL Data Availability (> 3 Stations) 4. Wave Data Availability (2 or more stations) Cleo Dora (5.91 ft) Frances (15) Frances (5) Dora David (5.55 ft) Charley (14) Ophelia (5) David Jeanne (4.22 ft) Jeanne (14) Tammy (5) Chris Tammy (4.07 ft) Ophelia (9) Fay (5) Edouard Fay (3.99 ft) Tammy (9) Jeanne (4) Tammy Frances (3.85 ft) Dennis 99 (8) Edouard (3) Fay Gabrielle (3.82 ft) Edouard (8) Charley (3) Floyd (3.8 ft) Floyd (7) Chris (2) Ophelia (3.04 ft) Irene (7) Dennis99 (2) Abby (2.93 ft) Fay (6) Floyd (2) Irene (2.92 ft) David (5) Irene (2) Bertha (2.62 ft) Bob (2.44 ft) Erin (2.43 ft) Cleo (2.35 ft) Dennis 99 (2.24 ft) 85
Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) Criteria Sorting of Storms 1. Local Landfall 2. Significant WL Difference 3. WL Data Availability (> 3 Stations) 4. Wave Data Availability (2 or more stations) Cleo Dora (5.91 ft) Frances (15) Frances (5) Dora David (5.55 ft) Charley (14) Ophelia (5) David Jeanne (4.22 ft) Jeanne (14) Tammy (5) Chris Tammy (4.07 ft) Ophelia (9) Fay (5) Edouard Fay (3.99 ft) Tammy (9) Jeanne (4) Tammy Frances (3.85 ft) Dennis 99 (8) Edouard (3) Fay Gabrielle (3.82 ft) Edouard (8) Charley (3) Floyd (3.8 ft) Floyd (7) Chris (2) Ophelia (3.04 ft) Irene (7) Dennis99 (2) Abby (2.93 ft) Fay (6) Floyd (2) Irene (2.92 ft) David (5) Irene (2) Bertha (2.62 ft) Bob (2.44 ft) Erin (2.43 ft) Cleo (2.35 ft) Dennis 99 (2.24 ft) 86
Validation Storm Selection: Significant Surge Events (Cont d) Five validation storms selected Hurricane Dora (1964) Hurricane David (1979) Hurricane Frances (2004) Tropical Storm Tammy (2005) Tropical Storm Fay (2008) 87