WWRP Implementation Plan Reporting AvRDP Please send you report to Paolo Ruti (pruti@wmo.int) and Sarah Jones (sarah.jones@dwd.de). High Impact Weather and its socio economic effects in the context of global change. 1. How has your WG or Project contributed to addressing this Societal Challenge since the last CAS session in 2013? (Please provide highlights and challenges) A joint CAS/CAeM Aviation Research and Demonstration Project (AvRDP) has been set up for 2015 2018 with the following objectives: a. to conduct research in nowcasting and mesoscale modelling at a number of international airports located in Northern and Southern Hemisphere with a view to supporting the development of the next generation aviation initiative, the Aviation System Block Upgrade (ASBU) under the new Global Aviation Navigation Plan (GANP) of International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). Key concepts under ASBU are the development of seamless Trajectory Based Operation (TBO) and Meteorological Services to ATM (MSTA) near airport terminal area; b. to collaborate with the respective Air Traffic Management (ATM) to translate the Meteorological (MET) information into ATM Impact products so as to demonstrate the benefits of the MET information (nowcast and mesoscale modelling) in the aviation community; and c. to help in capacity building via the knowledge gained in AvRDP other WMO Members who need to enhance their aviation MET services so as to meet the ASBU initiative. The aviation high impact weather includes, but not limited to: significant convection, low visibility, low ceiling, winter weather including runway icing, low level windshear and turbulence, clear air turbulence, airframe and ice crystal icing, dust/sandstorm, volcanic ash, etc. These high impact weather not just affect flight safety but also efficiency. Six airports in different climatological regimes participating in the project have identified their respective high impact weather and working on the advanced observation, enhancement of their nowcasting and high resolution, rapid output NWP models to forecast 0 6, 12 and upto 30hrs ahead of the impacting weather over the respectively aerodromes.
A few participating airports have conducting verification to assess the performance of the enhanced nowcasting and mesoscale NWP over the airport and terminal areas. A few participating airports have also initiated collaboration with local ATM to develop models to translate MET information (plus other non weather information) into fit for purpose ATM products. The project is related to the Aviation Meteorological Services, one of the 7 Key Priorities of WMO Strategic Plan 2016 1019. 2. How has your WG or Project contributed to Action Areas under this Societal Challenge since the last year? (Please provide key highlights and details based on Action Areas listed in the Implementation Plan) Each participating airport has, in various pace and degree, conducted Intense Observation Periods (IOPs) in summer and winter to collect MET and ATM data over their respective airport terminal, enhance nowcasting and mesoscale NWP models, collaborate with local ATM in the development of models for translating MET information into ATM impact products, and assess the performance and limitations of the respective nowcast/forecasting tools by using the observational data collected. In specific: AA1: Address limitations a. Conducted research and development in nowcasting and mesoscale modelling at specific airports to assess gaps in the required capabilities and address the limitations in support of MSTA and TBO. b. Collaborated with end users including local ATM, airlines and pilots to identify their needs and to translate and integrate the meteorological information with ATM systems to generate aviation impact information to optimize the effectiveness of the meteorological information provided in the process. c. AvRDP has coordinated with WGNR in organizing a WWRP International Symposium on Nowcasting and Very shortrange Forecast (WSN16) to include reports and discussion on the needs, limitations and progresses of the Project at different airports. d. AvRDP has organized a training workshop to transfer aviation nowcasting and mesoscale technology to aviation meteorological personnel including aviation forecasters. AA3: Fully Coupled a. Conducted research and developed smart approach to blend observation based nowcast and mesoscale NWP to generate seamless 0 6 hours forecast.
b. Collaborated with the ATM experts to establish models to translate MET information into ATM impact products. c. Collaborated with nowcasting, mesoscale modelling and aeronautical meteorological scientists on developing seamless aviation products. AA4: Applications a. Continued to review user needs including aviation nowcast and mesoscale modelling technologies and translation of ATM impact products via encouraging the MET and ATM community to communicate and collaborate in daily operations. b. Continued to coordinate MET with ATM experts to develop models to translate deterministic/probabilistic MET information into ATM products, such as airport capacity, airspace capability, airport acceptance/departure rate, aircraft delay, etc. c. Continued to demonstrated the benefits of using MSTA/TBO products in ATM related decision making including improved prediction of airport arrival/departure rate, airspace capacity, optimized flight trajectory, etc. AA5: Verifications a. Strived to develop suitable verification metrics for aviation MET products using the results obtained via the IOPs held at various participating airports. b. Collected ATM data, such as airport capacity, air traffic data, air position data, aircraft data etc., to conduct ATM impact product verification and validation by involving ATM experts in the verification and validation processes to identify the useful verification methods from the end users perspective. 3. How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives under this Societal Challenge? Engaged with JWGFVR to develop verification & validation methodologies for aviation. Collaborated with NMRWG in advancing nowcating and highresolution NWP for developing enhanced MSTA product. Collaborated with local ATM in difference airports on the ways to demonstrate the benefits for the aviation community. Collaborated with CAeM ET/ASC (Aviation Science and Climate) on latest development of aeronautical meteorology and seek advice on how to turn the outcomes from the research results into operation and providing guidelines to ICAO.
Kept in view other on going aviation initiatives: SESAR, NextGen, CARATS. 4. How do you see your WG or Project contributing to the Action Areas in the next 2 years? AvRDP in the next 2 years will focus on Phase II of the Project, i.e. MET ATM translation to demonstrate the benefits of the enhanced nowcasting and mesoscale NWP to the end users, hence contributing to AA3 and AA4. AvRDP will explore and develop suitable verification metric for aviation uses which is 4 dimensional in nature (trajectory based), hence contributing to AA5. AvRDP will explore and develop calibrated nowcasting and NWP ensemble methods to provide uncertainty/confidence information along with the nowcast/forecast itself to facilitate end users risk assessment and to demonstrate the benefits to the end users, hence contributing to AA2. AvRDP will organize training workshop on methodologies to translate enhanced nowcast and mesoscale model forecast into ATM impact products/parameters. End users including Air traffic management, airlines, pilots will be involved so as to transfer the experience gained in the AvRDP participating airports to other airports which may need to enhance their ATM services under the ASBU roadmap (AA1). The AvRDP will keep in view the outcomes from the CAS/CAeM/CBS Aeronautical Meteorological Conference 2017 to assess the necessity of modifying its scope and adjusting its future roadmap. Water: modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved disaster risk reduction and resource management. 1. How has your WG or Project developed this Societal Challenge since the last CAS session in 2013? (Please provide highlights and challenges) The current AvRDP does not have any component which could contribute to this Theme. 2. How do you see your WG or Project advancing in the next 2 years? (Please provide with detailed based on Action Areas) Not in the next 2 years time frame.
Urbanization: research and services for megacities and large urban complexes. 1. How has your WG or Project developed this Societal Challenge since the last CAS session in 2013? (Please provide highlights and challenges) The current AvRDP does not have any component which could contribute to this Theme. 2. How do you see your WG or Project advancing in the next 2 years? (Please provide with detailed based on Action Areas) Not in the next 2 years time frame. Evolving Technologies: their impact on science and their use. 1. How has your WG or Project developed this Societal Challenge since the last CAS session in 2013? (Please provide highlights and challenges) During the Intense Observation Periods in the last 2 years, each of the participating airports has either collected non conventional MET datasets (lightning, LIDAR, vertically pointing X band radar, etc.), implemented novel radar or satellite based nowcasting systems, or developed ultra high resolution (down to 1km to 200m) rapidly updated NWP (down to 5 mins outputs). A few airports have collected ATM datasets (aircraft data, AMDAR data, ADS B data, airport air traffic data, etc.) and have started to translate MET information into ATM impacted parameters (airport capacity, airport arrival/departure rate, airspace sector capacity, optimized flight route under significant weather, etc.) by collaboration with the local Air Traffic Management (though not all airports have already achieved this stage). Establishment of this kind of collaboration to many NHMS is not easy and needs much efforts to achieve. 2. How has your WG or Project contributed to Action Areas under this Societal Challenge since the last year? (Please provide key highlights and details based on Action Areas listed in the Implementation Plan) AA14: Advanced Methods a. Developed techniques to better utilize the ultra high density and frequently updated MET observations, such as dualpolarization Doppler radar, LIDAR, radiometer, AMDAR, wind profilers, surface anemometer, etc. which were collected during the IOPs at various airports for sub km scale data assimilation and nowcasting.
b. Developed ultra high resolution NWP model for prediction and demonstrating its performance in forecasting aviation high impact weather. c. Developed novel blending technologies for aviation application purposes by combining observation based nowcast (radar based) and high resolution mesoscale NWP forecasts. d. Explored the capability of using ultra high resolution, rapidly updated ensemble NWP for generating uncertainty estimation for aviation applications. e. Used of the weather data, ADS B data and airport traffic data collected during IOP for studying aircraft avoidance probabilities. f. Used of flight simulator and radar based nowcast for quantifying the impact of convection to flight path and proposing the optimized flight trajectory. AA15: Support Facilities a. Made available to the research community, via an AvRDP data server, the dense and large variety of meteorological data (observation and nowcast/forecast) and ATM data collected during the IOPs over the participating airports. AA17: New Observations a. Deployed and assessed new observation platforms such as vertically pointing X band radar, dual polarization Ka band radar, profiling microwave radiometer, LIDAR, icing detector in the project. 3. How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives under this Societal Challenge? Engaged with JWGFVR to develop verification & validation methodologies for aviation. Collaborated with NMRWG in advancing nowcating and highresolution NWP for developing enhanced MSTA products. Collaborated with local ATM in difference airports on the ways to demonstrate the benefits for the aviation community. Collaborated with CAeM ET/ASC (Aviation Science and Climate) on latest development of aeronautical meteorology and seek advice on how to turn the outcomes from the research results into operation and providing guidelines to ICAO. Kept in view other on going aviation initiatives: SESAR, NextGen, CARATS Collaborate with CAeM ET/ASC (Aviation Science and Climate) on the latest MET observations and climate change.
4. How do you see your WG or Project advancing in the next 2 years? (Please provide with detailed based on Action Areas) AvRDP in the next 2 years will focus on Phase II of the Project, i.e. MET ATM translation to demonstrate the benefits of the enhanced nowcasting and mesoscale NWP to the end users. It will also explore and develop new verification metric for aviation uses which is 4 dimensional in nature (trajectory based), hence contributing to AA14. AvRDP will explore and develop calibrated nowcasting and NWP ensemble methods to provide uncertainty/confidence information along with the nowcast/forecast itself to facilitate end users risk assessment and to demonstrate the benefits to the end users, hence contributing to AA14. AvRDP will explore the use of wind and temperature data extracted from ADS C in the mesoscale NWP, hence contributing to AA14. The AvRDP data server will continue to open to the research community to use the dense and large variety of meteorological data (observation and nowcast/forecast) and ATM data collected during the IOPs over the participating airports for further enhancement of nowcast and mesoscale modelling, hence contributing to AA15. AvRDP will explore the use of additional data such global lightning data and high resolution multi channel satellite data, for both nowcasting and NWP data assimilation, hence contributing to AA17. Cross cutting activities 1. What are the key achievements in your WG or Project since the last CAS session in 2013 that cut across two or more societal challenges? AvRDP focused on the nowcast and forecasting aviation hazardous weather which may have high impact to the aviation community. It also explores the development of advanced nowcasting and high resolution, rapidly output mesoscale NWP. Hence, AvRDP cuts across the High Impact Weather and New Technology societal challenges. 2. How have you linked to other WGs, Projects and International initiatives for cross cutting activities? AvRDP has linked with NMRWG, CAeM/ET ASC, CAeM/ET ISA and ICAO METP and WG to address cross cutting activities. 3. What will be the key cross cutting activities in the next 2 years?
The key cross cutting activity will be facilitating research in the NMRWG, CAeM/ET ASC, CAeM/ET ISA and ICAO METP and its WG in the development of advanced nowcasting and mesoscale NWP models. Another cross cutting activity will be transferring the enhanced aeronautical meteorological technology and experience to help draft new recommendations and/or practice for in association with the ASBU under the next Generation Aviation Navigation Plan.