MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014
Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion International Forecast Crop Production Estimates
Spring 2014 Recap Temperatures Precipitation Cold and dry in March Cool and wet weather in April slowed early planting of corn and soybeans First half of May warmer/drier in southern corn belt, but still cool and wet in northern corn belt Extreme drought continues to stress Plains hard red wheat
Current Drought Situation May 6, 2014 Drought Monitor May 7, 2013 Drought Monitor Drought continues to worsen across the southwestern Plains Lingering long-term dryness in the western corn belt Eastern corn belt in good shape
Recent Corn Yield Problems Summer 2010 Summer 2011 Summer 2012 Summer 2013 Heat, especially overnight temps Heat and late dryness Heat and historic drought Late planting and drought 4 straight years of below trend U.S. corn yields due to weather issues
North America Summer 2014 Temperatures Precipitation Below normal temperatures with normal rainfall for most of the corn belt, favorable for crops Hot and fairly dry in Texas Dry in the western Prairies
North America Summer 2014 June 2014 Temps July 2014 Temps August 2014 Temps June 2014 Precip July 2014 Precip August 2014 Precip
Forecast Reasoning Developing El Niño -PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Soil Moisture
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle involving changes in sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric pressures across the tropical Pacific Impacts weather patterns by altering the global atmospheric circulation
What Causes El Niño Typical Pacific Circulation El Niño Trade winds weaken in central and eastern Pacific As a result, warm water at the surface sloshes eastward across the Pacific, leading to warming in the central and eastern Pacific
ENSO Sea Surface Temperatures El Niño Neutral La Niña Boxed area is called Niño 3.4 region In El Niño, waters are warmer than normal in the Niño 3.4 region In La Niña, waters are cooler than normal in the Niño 3.4 region
ENSO Through the Years 3 ENSO 3.4 Region Temperature Anomalies 2.5 2 1.5 ENSO 3.4 Region SST Anomaly ( C) 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5-2 -2.5-3
Current ENSO Situation Temperatures have been warming across the tropical Pacific over the past few months Currently in a neutral ENSO phase, but nearing the threshold for weak El Niño
Current ENSO Situation Large area of warmer than normal water below the surface in the tropical Pacific This warmer than normal water is likely to reach the surface and lead to El Niño
IRI/CPC ENSO Model Forecasts Models in good agreement regarding development of El Niño Model consensus for moderate El Niño this fall/winter
NOAA ENSO Probabilities Over 60% chance of El Niño developing by summer (JJA) Nearly 80% chance of El Niño conditions by end of 2014 Near zero chance of La Niña
MDA Weather s Thoughts Chance of El Niño developing by the end of summer around 75% Risk is for a stronger El Niño, especially given large warm pool of water below the surface Likely to peak in the November-January time period Best analogs: 2009, 2002, 1982, 1972, 1965
Typical El Niño Correlations
Summer El Niño and U.S. Weather Summer Temperature Composite Summer Precipitation Composite 15 El Niño summers since 1950 Generally cool Midwest, with normal rainfall Corn +2.2% from trend, soybeans +2.5% from trend
Threats to the Forecast Evolution of ENSO Faster shift to El Niño would lead to cooler and drier risks across the Midwest Biggest risk to the forecast Balance of Spring Rainfall Continued below normal rainfall would lead to hotter and drier risks in the Plains and West Wild Cards MJO, high latitude blocking, etc. Difficult to predict at this lead time
North America Summary Extreme drought stressing Plains hard red winter wheat Cool and wet weather has led to planting delays, especially in the northern Plains and northern Midwest Below normal summer temperatures and seasonal summer rainfall across the corn belt should favor corn and soybeans Drier risks exist across the southeastern Midwest and southwestern Plains Continued drought may allow for heat into the central and southern Plains
China/India Summer (Jun-Aug) Below normal rainfall may stress corn in eastern North China Plain and southern Northeast China Weaker than normal monsoon expected in India
Europe/FSU Summer Forecast (Jun-Aug) Above normal rainfall in Europe should favor corn, but may lower quality of wheat Dryness may threaten crops in eastern Ukraine, western Russia
U.S. Production Estimates Crop U.S. Winter Wheat U.S. Spring Wheat 2014 Acreage (m acres) 2014 Yield (bu/ac) 2014 Production (b bu) Production change versus 2013 32.68 43.8 1.43-9.7% 11.28 46.4 0.52 +2.3% U.S. Corn 83.67 167.5 14.01 +2.4% U.S. Soybeans 77.94 45.9 3.57 +12.1% Favorable summer weather should lead to increased (record?) corn yields Drought leads to lower winter wheat production
3 rd Annual MDA Weather Crop Tour Preliminary 2014 Crop Tour Route August 4-August 8, 2014 Begins in Indianapolis on Monday morning and ends in Omaha on Friday afternoon Travels through the top 6 corn states Collect ~100 corn and soybean samples Reports with real-time photos and yield data also available
Questions? Kyle Tapley - Senior Agricultural Meteorologist MDA Weather Services kyle.tapley@mdaus.com 240-833-8314