Last Week s Rainfall 1
Last Week s Surface Charts 2
Last month s Max Temp Forecasts: ACCESS Model Da te Model MxD1 MxD2 MxD3 MxD4 MxD5 MxD6 MxD7 MxD8 MxD9 MxD10 0 1- Aug- 18 ACC 15.4 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.2 17.8 0 2 - Aug- 18 ACC 17.3 17.5 17.4 17.5 17.4 16.9 16.7 15.9 17.1 15.0 0 3 - Aug- 18 ACC 16.7 17.0 17.0 16.5 16.5 15.5 16.3 17.3 13.5 16.3 0 4 - Aug- 18 ACC 16.7 16.1 16.2 15.4 16.3 15.9 16.0 17.2 14.7 12.8 0 5 - Aug- 18 ACC 17.6 17.5 17.4 16.7 15.7 16.3 16.5 17.2 16.9 16.2 0 6 - Aug- 18 ACC 13.8 14.2 14.3 14.4 13.9 13.9 15.2 15.6 15.0 14.5 0 7 - Aug- 18 ACC 14.5 14.1 14.2 13.8 14.2 14.6 13.8 13.8 14.9 13.6 0 8 - Aug- 18 ACC 14.9 14.7 14.4 13.9 15.4 15.6 14.2 16.4 13.7 14.6 0 9 - Aug- 18 ACC 17.0 16.6 16.6 16.1 17.1 17.8 17.8 15.0 13.6 14.5 10 - Aug- 18 ACC 17.1 18.4 18.5 19.1 19.0 17.2 16.2 15.6 17.7 11.9 11- Aug- 18 ACC 14.1 13.5 13.8 13.1 13.2 13.2 14.3 14.2 14.0 15.6 12 - Aug- 18 ACC 14.4 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.2 14.2 14.9 15.5 14.0 13 - Aug- 18 ACC 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.8 15.0 15.2 14.3 15.6 14.5 15.6 14 - Aug- 18 ACC 17.5 17.0 16.4 16.5 16.8 16.0 15.9 16.7 15.1 15.8 15 - Aug- 18 ACC 15.5 16.2 16.1 16.2 16.7 16.3 15.2 16.5 18.6 16.1 16 - Aug- 18 ACC 15.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.4 14.4 13.7 14.3 14.3 14.8 17 - Aug- 18 ACC 16.1 16.3 16.1 15.3 15.5 15.2 13.8 13.9 13.2 13.1 18 - Aug- 18 ACC 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.5 13.9 14.9 15.1 14.1 14.7 19 - Aug- 18 ACC 11.6 11.5 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.9 12.2 15.8 16.0 15.0 2 0 - Aug- 18 ACC 14.5 14.7 14.6 13.9 13.6 13.8 15.1 14.9 15.4 16.5 2 1- Aug- 18 ACC 14.4 14.7 14.7 15.8 15.7 15.0 14.8 18.9 18.6 13.1 2 2 - Aug- 18 ACC 15.2 15.6 15.7 16.5 16.5 17.2 15.8 14.4 18.4 18.1 2 3 - Aug- 18 ACC 17.3 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.6 18.8 18.3 14.6 18.2 2 4 - Aug- 18 ACC 16.4 17.3 17.3 17.9 17.3 16.7 18.3 18.8 14.2 18.2 2 5 - Aug- 18 ACC 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.3 17.2 16.0 17.8 18.0 14.5 2 6 - Aug- 18 ACC 15.2 15.8 16.4 16.8 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.0 2 7 - Aug- 18 ACC 14.5 16.1 16.5 16.2 16.8 18.2 17.7 2 8 - Aug- 18 ACC 14.1 14.2 14.8 13.6 15.8 17.7 2 9 - Aug- 18 ACC 14.7 15.3 13.1 13.8 15.0 3 0 - Aug- 18 ACC 16.4 15.2 13.9 14.8 3 1- Aug- 18 ACC 18.1 15.1 15.3 0 1- S e p- 18 ACC 13.3 16.0 0 2 - S e p- 18 ACC 14.1 3
Last Week s Model Forecasts OBSERVED 168H ACCESS 168H GFS 168H ECMWF 4
MSL Analysis / Sat Image (Fri) 5
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Click on: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif 6
Climate Indices Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Little change in the tropical Pacific; El Niño remains possible in 2018 7
Go to Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Current BoM Seasonal Outlook Issued 16-Aug http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/archive/outlooks/ The climate outlook, issued 16 August 2018, shows the first months of spring (September and October) are likely to be drier than average for most of northern, eastern and southern Australia. Spring days are likely to be warmer than average. Nights are also likely to be warmer than average for most areas, except for parts of northern Australia and the southeast of the mainland. 8
Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) Victoria Sep. Oct. Nov. The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is -0.18 (-0.35 standard deviations), the average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -1.49, the average SOI for the past 30 days is 0, and the latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is 0.469. The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for JUL/AUG is -0.04. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to neither a La Niña nor an El Niño. This suggests: RAINFALL: There is an enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV total rainfall will be close to normal in all Victorian Districts. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV overnight temperatures will be close to normal in the MALLEE, NORTHERN COUNTRY, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST, EAST GIPPSLAND, WEST GIPPSLAND and WESTERN Districts, but there is little indication as to whether overnight temperatures will be below, near or above normal in other Victorian Districts. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average SEP/OCT/NOV daytime temperatures will be close to normal in all Victorian Districts.
Jet Streams: Fri-24-Aug-2018 10
MSL Pressure: Fri-24-Aug-2018 11
Jet Streams: Sat-25-Aug-2018 12
MSL Pressure: Sat-25-Aug-2018 13
Jet Streams: Sun-26-Aug-2018 14
MSL Pressure: Sun-26-Aug-2018 15
Jet Streams: Mon-27-Aug-2018 16
MSL Pressure: Mon-27-Aug-2018 17
Chart Discussion: Fri-24Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Jet Streams: Tue-28-Aug-2018 18
Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug2018 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Tue-28-Aug-2018 19
Jet Streams: Wed-29-Aug-2018 20
MSL Pressure: Wed-29-Aug-2018 21
Jet Streams: Thu-30-Aug-2018 22
MSL Pressure: Thu-30-Aug-2018 23
Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-30-Aug-2018 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 24
Following ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-31-Aug-2018 to Sun-02-Sep-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 25
Following ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-31-Aug-2018 to Sun-02-Sep-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 26
Following GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-31-Aug-2018 to Sun-02-Sep-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 27
PREDICTED WEATHER : ACCESS model, GFS model, ECMWF model Click on : http://www.weather-climate.com/14dayforecasts.html 28
Chart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 Thank You 29