Current Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Fernandina Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to Indian Pass; Florida Keys; Lake Okeechobee; Florida Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach A Warning is in effect from west of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line; north of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River A Warning is in effect for Bimini and Grand Bahama A Surge Warning is in effect from South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet; North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the Ochlockonee River; Florida Keys; Tampa Bay Current Details from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) COORDINATES: 26.2 north, 81.8 west LOCATION: 5 miles (10 kilometers) north of Naples, Florida MOVEMENT: north at 14 mph (22 kph) WINDS: 110 mph (175 kph) with gusts to 130 mph (210 kph) RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS: 220 miles (350 kilometers) RADIUS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS: 80 miles (130 kilometers) MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 millibars SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE RANKING*: Category 2 Hurricane 1 st U.S. LANDFALL LOCATION: Cudjoe Key (Florida Keys) 1 st U.S. LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 9:10 AM local time (13:10 UTC) 1 st U.S. LANDFALL INTENSITY: 130 mph (210 kph) Category 4 Hurricane 2 nd U.S. LANDFALL LOCATION: Marco Island, Florida 2 nd U.S. LANDFALL TIMEFRAME: approximately 3:35 PM local time (19:35 UTC) 2 nd U.S. LANDFALL INTENSITY: 115 mph (185 kph) Category 3 Hurricane 24-HOUR SIGNIFICANT INSURED LOSS POTENTIAL: HIGH Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
Latest Satellite Picture Source: NOAA Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 2
Discussion Hurricane Irma, located approximately 5 miles (10 kilometers) north of Naples, Florida, is currently tracking north at 14 mph (22 kph). Irma made its second United States landfall a couple of hours ago near Marco Island, Florida with an estimated intensity of 115 mph (185 kph). The eye just passed over Naples, and assuming some decay over land, the current intensity estimate is 110 mph (175 kph). The interaction with the Florida Peninsula along with strong southwesterly wind shear should cause significant weakening, but Irma's large and powerful circulation will likely maintain hurricane strength until Monday morning at the earliest. Irma should be well inland and weaken to a remnant low in 72 hours. The official NHC intensity forecast is above the model consensus. Center fixes indicate a slightly west of due northward motion as the models continue to indicate that Irma is embedded within a broader cyclonic mid-level gyre. The cyclone is expected to be steered around the eastern side of this gyre over the next few days. This will take the system inland over the southeastern United States within a day or so. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the official NHC forecast is close to the model consensus with a slight lean toward the ECMWF (Euro) solution. This is very close to the previous NHC track. Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center 1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida and spread into central and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday. 2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys, where a Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation. 3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina. 4. Irma is producing very heavy rain and inland flooding across much of Florida, which will quickly spread to the rest of the southeast United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average rainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are expected. Significant river flooding is also possible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected. Mountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding. Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 3
Additional Information STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: Cape Sable to Captiva: 10 to 15 feet Captiva to Ana Maria Island: 6 to 10 feet Card Sound Bridge through Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys: 5 to 10 feet Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay: 5 to 8 feet North Miami Beach to Card Sound Bridge, including Biscayne Bay: 3 to 5 feet South Santee River to Fernandina Beach: 4 to 6 feet Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River: 4 to 6 feet Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet: 3 to 5 feet North of North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet: 1 to 2 feet The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. WIND: Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the southern Florida peninsula. Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground level. storm and hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas through Monday. storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas this evening. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Wednesday: Western Bahamas: additional 2 to 4 inches (isolated 6 inches) The Florida Keys: additional 3 to 6 inches; storm total amounts from 15 to 20 inches (isolated 25 inches) Western Florida peninsula: 10 to 15 inches (isolated 20 inches) Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia: 8 to 12 inches (isolated 16 inches) The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern & western South Carolina, and western North Carolina: 3 to 8 inches (isolated 12 inches) Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama: 2 to 5 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. TORNADOES: Tornadoes remain possible through tonight, mainly across central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula and extreme southeast Georgia. THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the eye moves away. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 4
National Hurricane Center Forecast Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 5
Most Likely Arrival Time of -Force Winds Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 6
National Hurricane Center: Wind Speed Probabilities -Force Wind Probabilities ( 40 mph (65 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 7
Wind Probabilities ( 60 mph (95 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 8
Hurricane-Force Wind Probabilities ( 75 mph (120 kph)) Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 9
NHC: Surge Watch/Warning Graphic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 10
NHC: Surge Inundation Graphic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 11
Weather Prediction Center: Rainfall Potential Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 12
Current Spaghetti Model Output Data Source: NHC Additional Information and Update Schedule Wind intensity forecasts and forecast track information can be found via the National Hurricane Center at www.nhc.noaa.gov NEXT CAT ALERT: Monday morning after 10:00 AM Central Time (15:00 UTC). Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 13
* Intensity Classifications for Global Basins WIND SPEED KTS 1 MPH 1 KPH 1 30 35 55 NE Pacific, Atlantic National Hurricane Center (NHC) Depression NW Pacific Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Depression BASINS AND MONITORING BUREAU NW Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Depression SW Pacific Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) Depression Australia Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) Low SW Indian Meteo-France (MF) Depression North Indian India Meteorological Department (IMD) Deep Depression 35 40 65 40 45 75 45 50 85 50 60 95 55 65 100 60 70 110 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Moderate Cyclonic Cyclonic 65 75 120 70 80 130 75 85 140 80 90 150 Cat. 1 Hurricane Cat. 3 Cat. 3 85 100 160 90 105 170 95 110 175 100 115 185 105 120 195 110 125 205 Cat. 2 Hurricane Cat. 3 Major Hurricane Typhoon Typhoon Cat. 4 Cat. 4 Intense Very Cyclonic 115 130 210 120 140 220 125 145 230 130 150 240 135 155 250 Cat. 4 Major Hurricane 140 160 260 Cat. 5 Major >140 >160 >260 Hurricane Super Typhoon Cat. 5 Cat. 5 Very Intense Super Cyclonic Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 14
About Aon Benfield Aon Benfield, a division of Aon plc (NYSE: AON), is the world s leading reinsurance intermediary and fullservice capital advisor. We empower our clients to better understand, manage and transfer risk through innovative solutions and personalized access to all forms of global reinsurance capital across treaty, facultative and capital markets. As a trusted advocate, we deliver local reach to the world s markets, an unparalleled investment in innovative analytics, including catastrophe management, actuarial and rating agency advisory. Through our professionals expertise and experience, we advise clients in making optimal capital choices that will empower results and improve operational effectiveness for their business. With more than 80 offices in 50 countries, our worldwide client base has access to the broadest portfolio of integrated capital solutions and services. To learn how Aon Benfield helps empower results, please visit aonbenfield.com. Copyright by Impact Forecasting No claim to original government works. The text and graphics of this publication are provided for informational purposes only. While Impact Forecasting has tried to provide accurate and timely information, inadvertent technical inaccuracies and typographical errors may exist, and Impact Forecasting does not warrant that the information is accurate, complete or current. The data presented at this site is intended to convey only general information on current natural perils and must not be used to make life-or-death decisions or decisions relating to the protection of property, as the data may not be accurate. Please listen to official information sources for current storm information. This data has no official status and should not be used for emergency response decision-making under any circumstances. Cat Alerts use publicly available data from the internet and other sources. Impact Forecasting summarizes this publicly available information for the convenience of those individuals who have contacted Impact Forecasting and expressed an interest in natural catastrophes of various types. To find out more about Impact Forecasting or to sign up for the Cat Reports, visit Impact Forecasting s webpage at impactforecasting.com. Copyright by Aon plc. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise. Impact Forecasting is a wholly owned subsidiary of Aon plc. Cat Alert: Hurricane Irma 15