Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events in India Akhilesh Gupta Adviser & Head Climate Change Programme Department of Science & Technology Government of India Email: akhilesh.g@nic.in K.J. Ramesh Director General, India Meteorological Department Ministry of Earth Sciences New Delhi Email: kj.ramesh@nic.in
Global mean temperature change Each of the past 3 decades has been the warmest since 1850
Observed Trend in Ocean Warming More than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climb
Global climate change Frequency of Global Natural Disasters during 1970-2014
Number of Global Natural Disasters and Reported Deaths during 1900-2011
Number of Natural Disasters Continent-wise during 1970-2014
All-India Temperature Time Series Source: India Meteorological Department, National Climate Centre, Pune
INTER-ANNUAL MONSOON RAINFALL VARIABILITY
All India Rainfall : Decreasing Trend since 1941
TREND OF RAINFALL DURING SW MONSOON AND ANNUAL (mm of rainfall in 100 years)
Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Rainfall Low and Moderate events Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events over India in a Warming Environment Low & Moderate events Heavy events (>10cm) V. Heavy events (>15cm)
100 Winter 400 Pre-Monsoon 1600 Monsoon Winter Pre-Monsoon Monsoon 1400 n 200 n n 1200 0 1000 n 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 500 Post-Monsoon Years Post-Monsoon 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Years n 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2500 2000 1500 Annual Years Annual 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Years Number of long spell rain events. Continuous rainfall for 4 days over all India in different seasons. The red line is linear trend line. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Years The number of long spell rainfall events shows decreasing trend in monsoon season in last 54 years. This suggests that planetary scale motions, may be southwest monsoon over the country is weakening. Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 114
Decreasing Frequency of Total Number of Cyclonic Storms over India during 1891-2006 12 10 y = -0.0183x + 6.3291 R 2 = 0.1031 FREQUENCY 8 6 4 2 0 1891 1896 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Y E A R S
Frequencies of Monsoon Cyclonic Disturbances along with their trends over North Indian Ocean (1890-1999)
Increasing Frequency of Total Number of Low Pressure Areas over India during past 123 years (1888-2009)
Total Number of Flood Events in India (1980-2006) Decreasing Trend in Total Flood Events during past 25 years
Number of Flash Flood Events in India (1980-2006) Increasing Trend in Flash Flood Events during past 25 years
Trend in Frequency and Duration of Heat Waves in India (1966-2014) P. Rohini, M. Rajeevan & A. K. Srivastava, 2016
Prediction of Heat Waves 2015 Heat Wave over East Coast of India Predicted Heat Index IC: 0516 Observed Heat Index Courtesy: IITM Pune
Summary of Recent Observed Trend of Extreme Events over India Monsoon Rainfall Monsoon Rainfall variability Light/Moderate Rainfall Heavy/Very Heavy Rainfall Long Spell of Rainfall Short Spell of Rainfall Drought
Summary of Recent Observed Trend of Extreme Events over India Cyclonic Storms Cyclonic Disturbances Low Pressure Areas Large Scale Floods Flash Floods Heat Waves
months Climate Projections Av. Surface temperature: Increase by 2-4 C during 2050s Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS) : Large changes during non-monsoon more than 15 days by 1-4 mm/day Cyclonic storms: storms No. of rainy days: set to decrease by Intensity of rains : to increase Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic
Prediction Capability of Extreme Weather Events in India: Some Recent Developments Resolution and Physical Processes in Numerical Weather Prediction Models improved significantly India acquired High Performance Computing resources (~1PF) Considerable improvement in prediction accuracy of extreme events Lead time for forecasting extended
Cyclone Roanu 17-23 May 2016
Track Prediction for Cyclone Roanu (~ 15 days in advance) IC: 11 May OBS MME
Unusual Track of Cyclone Kyant 21-28 Oct, 2016 OBSERVED TRACK FOR CYCLONIC STORM KYANT OVER BAY OF BENGAL DURING 21-28 OCTOBER 2016
Cyclone Track Forecast Errors (2003-15)
Steps required to meet the Challenges emerging out of Extreme Events Warning Systems needed for all Extreme events Multi-Hazard Integrated Decision Support System Need for greater synergy between State and Central government agencies Wider Outreach needed Need for mainstreaming disaster risk into development process
Multi-layered Data Base Management and Modeling Data level Country State District Model to analyze and predict impact of events to desired level Taluk Block Village Multiple Scenario based on data level & event
Integrated Disaster Management Concept Disaster Observation & Monitoring Prediction Advanced & Dense Observational Network Prediction models High resolution Data assimilation Impact Assessment Decision Support System Dissemination of Early Warnings Feedback Village level data bank Decision type Sociological Geo-political Economical Administrative Security Law & Order Data type Geographic Demographic Geo-technical Geological Topographical Meteorological Seismological High speed computer Location specific administrative Actions Communication system Wide Area network-upto village level Disaster proof-satellite based-2 way State Gov
S&T Capacity Building in Climate Change in India: DST s initiative Akhilesh Gupta Adviser & Head Climate Change Programme Department of Science & Technology Government of India Email: akhilesh.g@nic.in S
Status of S&T Capacity in Climate Science in India Strengths: 3000 Scientists 400 scientists with International recognition 450 Institutions teaching/doing Research 100 years of systematic Climate Data Weaknesses: Fragmented Research efforts Weak linkage between Science and Policy Limited linkage with the Society Absence of partnership with private sector
Eight National Missions on Climate Change National Solar Mission National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency National Mission on Sustainable Habitat National Water Mission National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Eco-system National Mission for a Green India National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change Both the missions call for mission mode actions to build, strengthen and sustain national S&T capacities
Existing Programmes of Climate Change Programme, DST 4 Centres of Excellence, one each at Divecha Centre for CC, IISc, Bangalore; IIT Bombay; IIT Madras and ICRISAT, Hyderabad 12 major R&D Programmes 2 National Network Programmes one each on climate Modeling and Climate Change & Human Health 8 Global Technology Watch Groups (GTWGs) in the areas of Renewable Energy Technology, Advance Coal Technology, Enhanced Energy Efficiency, Green Forest, Sustainable Habitat, Water, Sustainable Agriculture and Manufacturing Indo-Swiss Capacity Building Programme in glaciology Inter-University Consortium on Himalayan Cryosphere and Climate Change 6 Thematic Task Forces 18 State CC Centres Indo-US Fulbright-Kalam Doctoral and Post-Doctoral Fellowships in Climate Change
New Programmes under CCP-DST Launched Recently Centres of Excellence (4) Major R&D Programmes (8) Human Capacity Building Programmes (7) Network Programme on CC & Human Health (19) Network Progrmme on Climate Modeling (13) Network Programme on CC & Agriculture (49) Network Programme on CC & Coastal Vulnerability (10) State CC Centres (3) Arunachal Pradesh, Maharashtra and Orissa Indo-US Fulbright-Kalam Fellowships (6 annually) Indo-Swiss Joint Research Programme (2 Networks) National and International Professor Chairs (50)
Proposed Centres of Excellence and Major R&D Programmes SN CoE s location 1 IIT Kharagpur 2 BHU, Varanasi 3 IIT Delhi 4 National Institute of Malaria Research SN MRDP s location 1 ISSER, Pune 2 CUSAT, Kochi 3 NBRI, Lucknow 4 IISc Bangalore 5 Andhra Univ 6 IIT Guwahati 7 IIT Bhubaneshwar 8 ISSER Mohali
Summary of Programmes of CCP-DST Centres of Excellence Major R&D Programmes Network Programmes Global Technology Watch Groups Thematic Task Forces State CC Centres Human Cap. Build. Programme Inter-University Consortium 10 CoEs 8 institutions- 85 scientists 20 MRDPs 20 institutions-95 scientists 6 Network programmes -90 projects 62 institutions- 250 scientists 8 GTWGs 10 institutions 27 scientists 6 TFs 27 institutions 82 scientists 21 SCCCs 21 institutions 42 scientists 6 HCBPs 6 institutions 21 scientists 4 institutions 14 scientists 164 programs-158 institutions-616 scientists
Locations of DST-CCP Programmes (Existing + New) Total No of programmes/ projects: 164 Total no of institutions: 158 Total no of scientists: 616
AP Mitra Climate Change National and International Professor Chairs Total 50 such chairs will be positioned in next 5 years in key Indian institutions pursuing research in climate science, adaptation and mitigation. Out of these 50, 35 will be for National Professor chairs and remaining 15 for International chairs.
Eligibility for Professor Chairs Open to distinguished scientists/ academicians/ researchers in India/abroad including people from public service, government and social organizations Merit will be judged based on academic credentials of the candidate The candidate must fulfill certain essential criteria (qualification/experience) The appointment shall be on contract basis for a period of 3 years extendable upto 5 years after a rigorous review process. The candidate should preferably be below 70 years at the time of appointment.
New Programmes in Offing Collaborative Programmes with ICIMOD Himalayan University Consortium Fellowship programme Human Capacity Building Programmes National & Regional workshops Long term Research programme Institutional Capacity Building programme for the Indian Himalayan region Centres of Excellence (5) Major R&D Programmes (10-15) Human Capacity Building Programmes (10)
Young Scientist Mentoring & Leadership Programme The programmes aims at developing leadership in climate research in India Mapping of young and bright climate scientists below 35 years Annually 15 such scientists will be selected based on their credentials as evident from their academic qualification and research contribution They will undergo a Mentoring and training programme guided by a group of internationally acclaimed climate scientists from India & abroad 5 of them will be selected to receive a grant of Rs 3 Cr for 3 years to undertake an independent research as PI. The grant will also cover support for domestic and international travel
Concluding Remarks India has a strong climate change research base in terms of number of quality researchers, data and infrastructure The Country is witnessing emergence of a large number of research institutions (mostly extramural) in climate science areas Climate Change Programme (CCP) DST has emerged as the largest source of extra-mural funding (nearly 60% of total) in climate change research in the country CCP aims to build, strengthen and sustain S&T Capacity in the country in climate change research. Over 600 scientists are contributing to CCP programmes today. We aim to cover nearly 2000 scientists in next 5-8 years CCP has outlined a long term strategy to focus on Excellence, Expansion and Equity
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