Diagnosing the Large Swell Event Associated with the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Florence Mark Willis National Hurricane Center Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Thanks to: Jack Beven, Robbie Berg, John Cangiolosi, and Jamie Rhome.
TAFB Area of Responsibility
MOTIVATION PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY At least two drownings, hundreds of ocean rescues, erosion, and flooding resulted from this swell event. 22% of all tropical cyclone related deaths are offshore or surf related (2 nd only to inland flooding), Rappaport (2000). Improve public misperceptions of swell events from tropical cyclones the category and type of storm don t matter! Wave model guidance did not represent the peak of the swell event very well. Why? Improve NWS/NCEP marine forecast products.
METHODOLOGY A detailed case study was performed to understand the social and scientific challenges associated with the large swell event from Hurricane Florence. Gain an understanding for the meteorology in hindsight what atmospheric patterns made the waves so big? Compared strengths and weaknesses in the available wave model guidance at TAFB NWW3, NAH WW3, WNA WW3, FNMOC WW3. Located problems in the GFDL and GFS wind forcing that led to problems in the NAH and WNA models. Compared swell of Florence (Cat 1) to Luis (Cat 4).
CONCLUSIONS This uniquely large swell event was due to: large storm from origin, ET, interaction with strong Canadian high pressure that built south. NAH and WNA WW3 s low with height and period offshore Florida on 14 Sept due to problems in the GFDL and GFS wind forcing on 13 Sept. WW3 s OVERestimated the heights and low with the periods off Cape Hatteras for the same reason. As marine forecasters, we always need to get a handle on the wind progs first, then waves. NAH isn t always better than WNA for tropical cyclones especially ones going through ET. Further outreach is needed to inform the public of potential indirect dangers of tropical cyclones (Swells and Surf!), and the misperceptions of the Saffir Simpson scale.
Hurricane Florence ( Sept 2006) 65 60 Hurricane Florence 3-12 September 2006 Hurricane 19 18 17 55 Tropical Storm Tropical Dep. 50 Extratropical Subtr. Storm Subtr. Dep. 14 15 16 45 40 Low / Wave 00 UTC Pos/Date 12 UTC Position PPP Min. press (mb) 13 NE swell peaking in Florida after NHC advisories ceased 35 12 30 11 974 mb 25 10 9 20 8 7 15 6 5 4 10-90 -85-80 -75-70 -65-60 -55-50 -45-40 -35-30 -25-20 -15-10
Hurricane Florence ( Sept 2006)
THE METEOROLOGY Large storm from origin. Strong high pressure over Canada built south 11-13 Sept. This allowed significant NE fetch to build SW towards Florida. Led to peak of swell in FL as Florence seemingly was not a threat and moving out to sea. NWS/NCEP Unified Surface Analysis 12Z 11 Sept 2006
Wave Model Verification Swell Peaking in Florida when Florence was moving out to sea and no longer tropical dangerous! Wave heights offshore Central Florida
Wave Model Verification Wave periods offshore Central Florida
Wave Model Verification Wave heights offshore Cape Hatteras
Wave Model Verification Wave periods offshore Cape Hatteras
Why were the NAH and WNA WW3 s off? The wind forcing! GFDL Winds (used in NAH WW3) vs. Observations
Why were the NAH and WNA WW3 s off? The wind! GFS better than GFDL with developing frontal structure N/NE of center, worse with high winds near core. GFS Winds (used in WNA WW3) vs. Observations
Florence (Cat 1, 2006) vs. Luis (Cat 4, 1995) Luis Florence
Saffir-Simpson Scale * Denotes major hurricane Category Category 1 Winds: 74-95 mph Winds: 74-95 mph (64-82 kt) (64-82 kt) Pres: > 980 mb Pres: > 980 mb 29.94 "Hg 29.94 "Hg Category Category 2 Winds: 96-110 mph Winds: 96-110 mph (83-95 kt) (83-95 kt) Pres: 965-979 mb Pres: 965-979 mb 28.50-28.91 "Hg 28.50-28.91 "Hg Category Category 3* 3* Winds: 111-130 mph Winds: 111-130 mph (96-113 kt) (96-113 kt) Pres: 945-964 mb Pres: 945-964 mb 27.91-28.47 "Hg 27.91-28.47 "Hg Category Category 4* 4* Winds: 131-155 mph Winds: 131-155 mph (114-135 kt) (114-135 kt) Pres: 920-944 mb Pres: 920-944 mb 27.17-27.88 "Hg 27.17-27.88 "Hg Category Category 5* 5* Winds: > 155 mph Winds: > 155 mph (> 135 kt) (> 135 kt) Pres: < 920 mb Pres: < 920 mb <27.16 "Hg <27.16 "Hg Storm surge: 4-5 ft ft above normal. Some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Wind Damage: Primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Scattered downed power lines and power outages. Storm surge: 6-8 feet above normal. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the center. Wind Damage: Some roofing material, doors, and window of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. downed power lines and power outages. Storm surge: 9-12 ft ft above normal. Low-lying escape routes cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain lower than 5 ft ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles or more. Wind Damage: Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with minor amount of curtain wall failures. Foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs destroyed. Numerous downed power lines and power outages. Storm Storm surge: surge: 13-18 13-18 ft ft above above normal. normal. Low-lying Low-lying escape escape routes routes may may be be cut cut by by rising rising water water 3-5 3-5 hours hours before before arrival arrival of of the the center center of of the the hurricane. hurricane. Major Major damage damage to to lower lower floors floors of of structures structures near near the the shore. shore. Terrain Terrain lower lower than than 10 10 ft ft above above sea sea level level may may be be flooded flooded requiring requiring massive massive evacuation evacuation of of residential residential areas areas as as far far inland inland as as 6 6 miles. miles. Wind Wind Damage: Damage: Extensive Extensive curtain curtain wall wall failures failures with with some some complete complete roof roof failures failures on on small small residences. residences. Shrubs, Shrubs, trees, trees, and and all all signs signs are are blown blown down. down. Complete Complete destruction destruction of of mobile mobile homes. homes. Extensive Extensive damage damage to to doors doors and and windows. windows. Widespread Widespread damage damage to to power power lines lines and and power power outages. outages. Storm surge: > 18 ft ft above normal. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Wind Damage: Complete roof failure on many residences/industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Extensive damage to power lines and widespread power outages.
Florence (Cat 1, 2006) vs. Luis (Cat 4, 1995) FLORENCE MAX 70 KT OR LUIS MAX 120 KT? Which storm created the largest swell offshore Florida?
And the winner is TIE! Both swell events peaked around 14 at 16s. Not unusual for Oahu, but very unusual for Florida. Saffir Simpson Scale not valid for swell events. Outreach needed to teach the public this.
Swell photos
Thank You. Questions, Comments?