WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK BELIZE, CENTRAL AMERICA PERIOD: Friday, July 13 until Monday, July 16, 2012 DATE ISSUED: Friday, June 13, 2012, 9:00 am RFrutos SYNOPSIS: A weak pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean will favor warm and humid conditions this weekend. A surface trough will move over Belize and Yucatan on Monday along the leading edge of another surge in the low level easterlies. Figure 1 GOES IR Satellite image for 12:15 pm, Friday, July 13, 2012, showing shallow, scattered convection over central and northern Belize, and also over central and northern coastal waters. 1
Figure 2 NHC surface map for 9:00 am, Friday, July 13, 2012, showing a TW in the western Atlantic heading westward at 15 mph. A dissipating surface low is evident over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Weak pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean. Figure 3 NHC 72- hr forecast surface map valid for 6:00 am, Monday, July 16, 2012, showing a Tropical Wave moving across the eastern Caribbean. This TW will be over Belize by Thursday of next week. 2
Figure 4 GFS model rainfall projection showing the 24-hour rainfall accumulation for the period ending 6:00 am, Monday, July 16, 2012. Rainfall concentrated over the coast of Belize with totals ranging from 0.25-0.50 of-an-inch. Figure 5 GFS model 72-hr vorticity projection at 850 mb (5,000ft), valid for 6:00 am Monday, July 16, 2012, showing weak surface trough over Belize and the leading edge of a surge in the low-level easterlies sweeping into northern Central America. 3
Conditions will remain favourable for warm and sultry weather this weekend; but the approach of a surface trough on Monday will favour another bout of and. An upper level low spinning in the south-central Gulf of Mexico north of Yucatan is projected to lift slowly northwards by Monday, but it is expected to provide some uplift over Yucatan and Belize early next week, favouring convective activity in the area. Daily rainfall totals over most districts and coastal waters will be minimal this weekend, with accumulations in the range of 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch. Rainfall activity will be on the increase on Monday through Wednesday of next week, with daily totals in the hills and coastal areas ranging from 0.50-0.75 of-an-inch. Showers will become a bit more concentrated along the coastal zone and the South next week, with daily totals of 1:00 to 2.00 inches on Thursday and Friday with the approach and passage of the tropical wave. Belize Seven-day Outlook for Agriculture and Industry Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu July 13, 2012 July 14, 2012 July 15, 2012 July 16, 2012 July 17, 2012 July 18, 2012 July 19, 2012 0.01-0.10 of-aninch 0.10-0.25 ofan-inch 0.10-0.25 ofan-inch Cloudy at times with a few & 0.25-0.50 inches Cloudy at times with a few & 0.50-0.75 ofan-inch Cloudy with more outbreaks of & 0.50-1.00 inch Cloudy with breaks of &, heavy at times 1.00-1.75 inch 4
OUTLOOK FOR THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION (MDR) OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Tropical Atlantic Basin during the next 48 hours. Summary of Atlantic Basin 2012 Hurricane Season Forecast: Tropical Cyclones NHC 1981-2010 Seasonal Average CSU (Klotzbach NOAA INSMET (Cuba) & Gray) Named Storms (NS) 12 10 9-15 10 Hurricanes (H) 6 4 4-8 5 Major Hurricanes 3 2 1-3 -- Atlantic NS 7.1 (INSMET) 8 Caribbean NS 1.5 (INSMET) 1 Gulf of Mexico NS 2.0 (INSMET) 1 Probability of at least one moving through the Caribbean Sea from Atlantic 50% (INSMET) 55% Expected 2012 activity in the Atlantic Basin Climate signals and evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions, combined with dynamical model forecasts, indicate that a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is most likely. This outlook calls for a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below normal season. An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is NOAA s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. This outlook indicates a 70% chance that the 2012 seasonal ACE range will be 65%-140% of the median. According to NOAA s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 111% of the 1981-2010 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value below 71.4% of the median reflects a below-normal season. Consistent with the expected ACE range, the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 9-15 named storms, of which 4-8 are expected to become hurricanes, and 1-3 are expected to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered near the 1981-2010 period averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. (Source: NOAA, June 2012). 5