ASO In The Tuolumne: 3 Years Of Basin SWE, and PRMS Assimilation Results Bruce J. McGurk and Thomas H. Painter & ASO Team Hydroclimate Workshop, 8 Oct. 2015
Need frequent, dense SWE data at all elevations Manual measurement of SWE (snow water equivalent), started in the Sierra Nevada in 1910
Snow Measurement - Tuolumne 17 snow courses, 5 below 7000 ft, 3 > 9000 ft Only 8 snow sensors, 5 co-located 80 sq ft/sensor, 20 sq ft/course =.06 millionth of a percent of the basin is measured
Landsat Snowcover, 1/18/2015
MODSCAG from MODIS, 3/05/15
ASO scan configuration: Riegl Q1560 scanning LiDAR, Itres CASI-1500 imaging spectrometer
ASO footprint, Merced Basin, 3/05/2015
LiDAR & Spectrometer Pipeline
ASO SWE - Tuolumne Basin 2014
Jump to folder! Tuolumne basin SWE video
Basin SWE, Inflow, & Storage-2013 400,000 2013 Tuolumne ASO Basin SWE, HH Inflow & Storage 4,500 350,000 4,000 SWE & Storage (Acre Feet) 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 Basin SWE(AF) HH Storage(AF) HH Capacity(AF) HH inflow cfs 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Inflow (cfs) 50,000 500 0 0
Basin SWE, Inflow, & Storage-2014 400,000 2014 Tuolumne ASO Basin SWE, HH Inflow & Storage Basin SWE (AF) 3,500 350,000 HH Storage (AF) 3,000 SWE & Storage (AF) 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 HH Capacity (AF) HH inflow cfs 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Inflow (cfs) 50,000 500 0 0
Basin SWE, Inflow, & Storage-2015 400,000 350,000 300,000 2015 Tuolumne ASO Basin SWE, HH Inflow & Storage Basin SWE (AF) HH Storage (AF) HH Capacity (AF) HH inflow cfs 2,400 1,900 SWE & Storage (AF) 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 1,400 900 400 Inflow (cfs) 0-100
3 Years of ASO SWE and HH Inflow Rates ASO HH Basin SWE & Inflow - Tuolumne - 2013 vs 2014 vs 2015 ASO Basin SWE (AF) 225,000 200,000 175,000 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 2013 Basin SWE (AF) 2014 Basin SWE (AF) 2015 Basin SWE (AF) 2013 HH Inflow (cfs) 2014 HH Inflow (cfs) 2015 HH Inflow (cfs) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Hetch Hetchy Inflow (cfs) 50,000 2,000 25,000 1,000 0 0 2/16 2/23 3/2 3/9 3/16 3/23 3/30 4/6 4/13 4/20 4/27 5/4 5/11 5/18 5/25 6/1 6/8 6/15
ASO SWE Here USGS PRMS Hydrologic Budget
Hetch Hetchy Basin Stations & PRMS HRUs SWE (Meters)
PRMS Screens
3750 3250 2750 2250 1750 1250 750 250 Obs. HH Inflow (cfs) Raw PRMS basin_cfs ASO PRMS basin_cfs CNRFC basin_cfs 5/15/2013 5/16/2013 5/17/2013 5/18/2013 5/19/2013 5/20/2013 5/21/2013 5/22/2013 5/23/2013 5/24/2013 5/25/2013 5/26/2013 5/27/2013 5/28/2013 5/29/2013 5/30/2013 5/31/2013 6/1/2013 6/2/2013 6/3/2013 6/4/2013 6/5/2013 6/6/2013 6/7/2013 6/8/2013 6/9/2013 6/10/2013 6/11/2013 6/12/2013 6/13/2013 6/14/2013 6/15/2013 6/16/2013
4,000.0 Jet Propulsion Laboratory 2014 Hetch Hetchy Observed & Forecasted Inflow 5/17 PRMS Forecast 3,500.0 5/17 ASO Forecast HH Estimated Inflow 3,000.0 2,500.0 Inflow (cfs) 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 5/1/2014 5/2/2014 5/3/2014 5/4/2014 5/5/2014 5/6/2014 5/7/2014 5/8/2014 5/9/2014 5/10/20 5/11/20 5/12/20 5/13/20 ASO SWE Results Assimilated into PRMS 5/14/20 5/15/20 5/16/20 5/17/20 5/18/20 5/19/20 5/20/20 5/21/20 5/22/20 5/23/20 5/24/20 5/25/20 5/26/20 5/27/20 5/28/20 5/29/20 5/30/20 5/31/20 6/1/2014
2014 Hetch Hetchy Observed & Forecasted Inflow 3,500.0 5/27 PRMS Forecast 3,000.0 5/27 ASO Forecast HH Estimated Inflow 2,500.0 Inflow (cfs) 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 0.0 ASO SWE Results Assimilated into PRMS
2014 Hetch Hetchy Observed & Forecasted Inflow 3,500 5/31 PRMS Forecast 3,000 2,500 5/31 ASO Forecast HH Observed Inflow Inflow (cfs) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 ASO SWE Results Assimilated into PRMS
2,500 2,000 2015 Hetch Hetchy Observed & Forecasted Inflow ASO SWE Results Assimilated into PRMS Inflow (cfs) 1,500 1,000 500 0 4/09 PRMS Forecast 4/09 ASO Forecast HH Estimated Inflow
2,500 2,000 2015 Hetch Hetchy Observed & Forecasted Inflow ASO SWE Results Assimilated into PRMS Inflow (cfs) 1,500 1,000 500 0 4/15 PRMS Forecast 4/15 ASO Forecast HH Estimated Inflow
Modeling Needs ASO results are gridded (3-50 m 2 ), and PRMS polygons (HRU s) are 1,000 to 10,000 acres. Further discretization is desired. Advanced snowmelt routines now exist that use long- and shortwave radiation. Current version of PRMS uses a temperature-index algorithm, calibrated with shortwave radiation records. Albedo (percentage of reflected shortwave insolation) is measured by ASO, but is not able to be input into PRMS. Assimilation of ASO Data is possible, but best procedure that guarantees stable predictions has not been identified. Good model predictions depend on good upper elevation forcing data, and most basins have minimal climate stations at high elevations, most particularly precipitation information.
ASO IN 2015 In California, flights over Tuolumne, Merced, Big Pine, Lone Pine, Rush Creek, Kings, a some forest fire sites In Colorado, flights over Uncompaghre Basin and parts of the rest of Colo. River Basin In Washington, flights over Olympic Park In Idaho, flights over Reynolds Creek Exp. Watershed
Sierra Nevada in the future Base airport: Dryden/Edwards Air Force Base - California, USA Total Flight time: 9 hrs 9 min Time taking data (includes turns): 7 hrs 56 min Number of flights: 2 All airports used: Dryden/Edwards Air Force Base - California, USA Mammoth June Lakes (MMH) - Mammoth Lakes, California, USA
ASO Summary ASO provides a more complete picture of basin snow water storage for water management End-to-end ASO operations (hardware, software, data products) have been demonstrated An operational system would benefit CA and.. In both 2014 and 2015, ASO information confirmed DRY forecasts, no water was released for power or ecological benefits. ASO operations expanding in 2016 and beyond.
WISKI in Forecasting WISKI aids forecasting by gathering climate and flow data in single place, common format While some QA/QC is possible in WISKI, more advanced QC recommended before model runs WISKI can produce reports of stations in useredited list, and text/csv can be imported into Excel Routine multi-station plotting routines can be implemented is WISKI as part of a QC process Need for simple export tools, and then tool to import modified data.
Questions?