IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE in Bangkok, Thailand Hiroaki KAKIUCHI Chuo Mapping Co., Ltd Takekazu AKAGIRI, Takahito KUROKI, Tohru NAGAYAMA Geographic Survey Institute, Min. of Construction, JAPAN Shunji MURAI, Ryosuke SHIBASAKI, Masataka TAKAGI Institute of Industrial Science, Univ. of TOKYO
Course of Sea Level Rise Global Warming by Green House Gas Emission Ice-melting Increasing Precipitation
Related Factors of Sea Level Rise Ground Subsidence Pumping Ground Water Poor Drainage Construction of Artificial Structure Beach Erosion Reclamation of Mangrove Forest
Objectives Estimation of Submergence Area from DEM Prediction of Damage by using R/S data and GIS Population Property Loss Evaluation of Land Use Suitability using GIS
Materials Digital Elevation Model Contour Maps and LANDSAT TM Field Measurement using GPS Test Area: Bangkok, Thailand Land Use Map using LANDSAT TM Visual Interpretation by Expert Automated Classification by Maximum Likelihood Method Socio-Economic Data Population Land Productivity Land Price
Geomorphological Map from LANDSAT TM
Averaged Profile in Each Geomorphological Classes 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 River Lagoon Back Marsh Tidal Flat Former River 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 Zone No. (Distance from a coastal Line)
Generated DEM
LANDSAT TM False Color Image
Land Use Map by Visual Interpretation
Land Use Map by Maximum Likelihood Method
Estimation Method of Submergence Area Submergence area according to sea level rise can be calculated from DEM Sea level rise influences river water level and tide Corrected DEM was used Corrected Current Sea Reduction River Elevation Elevation Level Ratio Water Level
General Idea of Corrected Elevation Calculation Tide Curve on River-mouth (Amplitude: H) Tide Curve on Upper Reaches (Amplitude: h) River Water Level River Bed Corrected Current Sea Reduction River Elevation Elevation Level Ratio Water Level Reduction Ratio=h/H Estimation of River Water Level Increasing by Sea Level Rise
Water Level Measurement Points and the Results No. Water Level Amplitude Reduction Ratio S-06 55.00 166.00 100.00 S-10 76.00 140.00 84.00 S-14 105.00 105.00 63.00 S-17 136.00 64.50 39.00 S-19 148.00 47.00 28.00 S-24 192.00 22.50 14.00 (cm) (cm) (%)
Estimated River Water Level Map
Estimated Submergence Area by 1m Sea Level Rise
Estimated Submergence Area by Sea Level Rise 80,000 70,000 Main Rice 60,000 Second Rice 50,000 40,000 30,000 Commercial & Industrial 20,000 Orchard Fish Pond 10,000 Mangrove Residential 0 Water 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Sea Level Rise (m)
Estimation of Degree of Damage Socio-Economic Data 103 Administrative Districts (Tanbon) in test Area Population, Land Price, Economic Productivity (from NRCT) Land Price Land Use Land Price Paddy Field 1750 Orchard 1833 Mangrove 2250 Fish Pond 1333 Residential 5000 Commercial 15313 (Baht/m2) Productivity Land Use Productivity Commercial 1060 Residential 37 Industrial 4260 Agricultural 9 Fish Pond 5 Other 727 (Baht/m2)
Estimated Suffered Population by Sea Level Rise 600,000 Residential Population 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 Total of worker Industrial worker Agricultural worker 0 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Sea Level Rise (m)
Estimated Economic Property Loss by Sea Level Rise 1,400 1,200 Fish Pond 1,000 800 600 Second Rice Main Rice 400 200 Commercial Industrial Orchard 0 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Sea Level Rise (m) Residential
Estimated Property Loss from each Land Use Map 8000 7000 Using Landuse map from Visual Interpretation 6000 5000 4000 Using Landuse map from Automated Classification 3000 2000 1000 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.2 Sea Level Rise (m)
Suitability of Current Land Use Items Unsuitable Usual Suitable Residential 0.0-0.8 0.9-1.6 1.7-5.0 Industrial 0.0-1.6 1.7-2.2 2.3-5.0 Commercial 0.0-1.2 1.3-1.8 1.9-5.0 Public Facility 0.0-1.4 1.5-2.0 2.1-5.0 Rice Field 0.0-0.8 0.9-2.0 2.1-5.0 Orchard 0.0-0.8 0.9-1.6 1.7-5.0 Fishpond 0.0-0.6 0.7-1.4 1.5-5.0 Evaluation Table of Land Use Category and Corrected Elevation
Suitability Map Suitable Usual Unsuitable No Elevation Data Residential Area Industrial Area
Suitability Map Suitable Usual Unsuitable Commercial Area Public Facility
Suitability Map Suitable Usual Unsuitable Rice Field Orchard
Conclusions Submergence area can be extracted from DEM. High accurate DEM is required. GIS was very efficient for damage prediction. 1m rise of sea level will make serious damage in Bangkok.