.1 -.1 -.2 -.3 -.4 March 2, 218 Seasonal Trader Report Click to View Section OVERALL SENTIMENT MONTHLY GWDD TRENDS SEASONAL FORECASTING TRENDS SPREAD ANALYSIS SEASONAL STORAGE ANALYSIS SEASONAL TRADE IDEAS Natural Gas Contract Movement Over Time Daily Move Weekly Move Monthly Move 6 Month Move 219 22 221 222 223 REPORT DASHBOARD For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 Forecast Confidence: 5/1 Most Bullish Risks: March Most Bearish Risks: May Report Summary: Cold trends through March now look likely to continue into April, keeping heating demand at least early in the month above average. We still expect cold to ease through the month, and May is likely to feature temperatures generally above average, with heating demand destruction across the North but some early season cooling demand likely across the South. From there the ENSO signal does die down, though we will look for continued strong cooling demand across the South into June and July. The natural gas market does look to be pricing that in, as though the front of the strip is still in more contango we see decent spread tightness from limited storage. Record production will continue to limit upside, keeping our seasonal sentiment neutral. Current Strip vs. Strip at Previous Similar Prompt Month Settle 218 219 22 221 222 223 Most Recent Settle January 5th TABLE OF CONTENTS
2 Sentiment Summary: GWDD forecasts ticked up higher as March has continued trending colder and April has looked a bit colder to start as well. Throw in summer heat across the South and we are now expecting GWDDs right around the 5-year average through the middle of the summer. This will provide support to a natural gas market that quickly tightens when cash prices dip below the $2.6 level, though we continue expect record production to keep a ceiling on prices as well. Historial GWDDs Discussion 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 March 2, 218 Long-Range Sentiment: NEUTRAL 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 1/1 11/1 12/1 *Forecast The natural gas market is weakly recovering today though has seen sizable losses over the past week as a looser EIA print last Thursday showed burns not keeping up as much with record production levels. Colder forecasts have generally been shook off as the market is more focused on a balance that seems to tighten dramatically below $2.6 and loosen dramatically above $2.8. Weather will likely provide the catalyst to move within this range, and could eventually break us out one direction or the other if either summer heat is intense enough to severely limit storage injections with limited storage levels or underwhelms enough that record production is able to too easily fill storage levels. For now, we see cooling demand early this summer around to a bit above average, with weather being a short-term supportive force as well with cold risks lingering into early April. From there weather may become more of a neutral or even slightly bearish catalysts as the country warms through April into May, and record production may steal much of the focus. However, heat across the South in May should linger into June even as the weak La Nina decays across the Pacific Ocean, and this should allow for stronger burns and more weather support this summer. The result is that we do not see prices lingering below the $2.6 level for that long even with record production unless weather significantly misses our expectations. There is a relatively tight ceiling for prices as well, with the strip pricing in some tightness, keeping our seasonal sentiment neutral for now. For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted 217 avg 1-yr avg Climo 218*
3 March 2, 218 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted 72 Monthly GWDD Forecast Updates: SLIGHTLY BULLISH Summary: March GWDDs have continued to trend higher with another cold shot to close out the month, though we may see some warmer trends in the mediumterm with one ridge sliding across the country. Both April and May GWDDs have ticked up slightly higher as well, with more models showing at least the first third of April seeing decent cold and May likely to turn warm across the South late in the month. No new signaling has arrived for June and July, as though we expect a decaying La Nina to keep warmth across the South we continue to see wildly diverging ENSO forecasts by June that have overall forecast confidence very low. March 218 April 218 May 218 June 218 45 25 29 365 July 218 7 68 66 4 35 245 24 235 285 28 275 36 355 35 345 64 62 6 3 25 23 225 22 27 265 26 34 335 33 325 58 Old Forecast New Forecast 1-yr Climo 217 Confidence: HIGH Confidence: HIGH Confidence: MEDIUM Confidence: LOW 7-72 2 Old Forecast New Forecast 1-yr Climo 217 35-41 215 Old Forecast New Forecast 1-yr Climo 217 23-26 26-31 Confidence: LOW 34-39 Forecast Risk: Mixed Forecast Risk: Colder Forecast Risk: Warmer Forecast Risk: Warmer Forecast Risk: Warmer 255 Old Forecast New Forecast Climo 217 2-year 32 Old Forecast New Forecast 1-yr Climo 217
Seasonal Forecasting Trends: NEUTRAL Key Takeaway: Models continue to show lingering cold risks through the first half of April, though from there we still expect a mild trend with widespread warmth across the South. La Nina conditions will decay through the spring and into the summer, but uncertainty as to the rate keeps summer forecasts low confidence still. Climate Models Weekly OLR Anomaly Discussion Pacific Trends Atlantic Trends Stratosphere Other Indicators Analogs CPC 3- Month NMME April NMME May NMME June NMME July CFSv2 April CFSv2 Mar/Apr/May Australia BOM Nino Forecast March 2, 218 4 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted La Nina Risks Mar-May Above images courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center Cold in March looks to be carrying over at least into the first part of April, with a favorable upstream EPO ridge and a redeveloping downstream NAO ridge. The two will work to keep the Midwest and Northeast cold even as warmth lingers in the Southwest and South through the month. We continue to see very weak La Nina conditions across the Pacific, but most models show this gradually decaying through the coming months. The expected impacts would be a variable pattern across the North through May and potentially June, but any weak Nina signal could still keep significant warm risks across the South at least into the month of May. May thus is likely to feature very limited heating demand but could feature above average cooling demand, at least allowing for impressive power burns across Texas and the surrounding region. This is a trend that continues into June, though if the Pacific warms too quickly we would begin to watch for fewer warm risks across the regions we would typically expect them. Last March models were way too aggressive in warming the Pacific, and though we should trend back to neutral an atmospheric lag may keep Nina-like forcing around for at least early summer to allow for significant cooling demand, though it will be at least a few more weeks before confidence in ENSO signaling increases.
March 2, 218 5 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted Spread Analysis: SLIGHTLY BEARISH Key Takeaway: J/K and J/V have both moved down over the past week to move back within previous historical ranges as the market has loosened. With limited storage levels we see these current spreads as warranted, but continue to see downside for prices should it become clear production can easily fill storage. J/K Through History J/V Through History.3.4.25.3.2.2.15.1.1 -.1.5 -.2 -.3 -.5 -.4 -.1 -.5 -.15 D-231 D-21 D-189 D-168 D-147 D-126 D-15 D-84 D-63 D-42 D-21 Today D+21 -.6 J8/K8 J7/K7 J6/K6 J5/K5 J4/K4 J3/K3 AVG J8/V8 J7/V7 J6/V6 J5/V5 J4/V4 J3/V3 J2/V2 AVG
1/25 2/25 3/25 4/25 5/25 6/25 7/25 8/25 9/25 1/25 11/25 12/25 1/25 2/25 Bcf/d Billion cubic feet Seasonal Storage Analysis: SLIGHTLY BULLISH Key Takeaway: Our end of draw estimate remains right around the 1.3 tcf level, though it appears that stockpiles may actually dip below that in early April as we draw gas for a bit longer than typical. The market has already priced in the 1.3 tcf level, though, so the impact will be muted until end of storage estimates fall further. ICE End of Draw Futures 1325 Last Week EoD Futures 1345 4-Week Tightness Model 1333.2 8-Week Tightness Model 1318.18 12-Week Tightness Model 1291.31 24-Week Tightness Model 1281.3 Official BWS Forecast 136 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Natural Gas Balance (EIA) Y-O-Y Supply Change Y-O-Y Demand Change 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 1/1 11/1 12/1 March 2, 218 6 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Current Natural Gas Stockpiles 218 5- Year Max 5-Year Min 5-Year Average Estimate Through 3/3 Discussion Our end of draw estimate ticked up slightly higher after last week s EIA print disappointed and cold last week was slightly weaker than forecast in the short-term. That said, the movement was minimal, and our estimate only goes through the next three weeks (typical withdrawal season ) as we see the potential for one additional withdrawal after the next three should the end of March and first few days of April feature enough cold. This would work to pull stockpiles briefly below the 1.3 tcf level into mid April before we begin injecting gas into storage, and should at least keep a floor for prices nearby to ensure that storage is filled enough for next winter season. It no longer is entirely clear that the natural gas market is pricing to fill, as we saw last year complacency in December despite dwindling storage levels that production would be able to make up any difference. Accordingly, we see these limited storage levels as only modestly supportive, as they should exacerbate the impacts of bullish weather in the summer should the market not fill storage to a level that seems fitting, but it alone will not be a catalyst for a rally unless the market is so tight that production will not be able to easily refill storage levels. Still, it is clear that limited stockpiles here is a supportive factor overall.
Seasonal Trade Ideas: NEUTRAL Key Takeaway: Our seasonal trade ideas capture what we see as limited potential for movement in both directions at the front of the natural gas curve. If anything a relatively tight market could see a bit of a bump with weather over the next couple of weeks, but record production poses downside risks into April too. 4. 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 Past Year of Natural Gas Strips Most Recent Settle Year Ago 2.4 217 218 219 22 221 222 223 Idea 3: K8 $2.5-$2.8 Short Straddle For 6.1 cents This trade idea captures what we continue to see as a slow period in the natural gas market carrying over into the month of April. If anything the current balance combined with future weather expectations have us expecting the May contract to oscillate around the $2.65 level, which this trade idea picks up on well. Short-term weather could still provide a catalyst for a bit of a bounce over the next couple of weeks, but through April we remain concerned that if there is no weather catalyst or burns lag at all prices could fall back on production concerns. Still, we see evidence that once cash prices dip below $2.6 burns come back strongly, which should prevent any sustained move below the $2.5 level while record production keeps a cap to the upside. In this relatively slow market this would seem to be one trade that, while risky, could capitalize on what should be continued limited volatility. March 2, 218 7 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted Idea 1: Buy J/K @ -.26 This trade idea capitalizes on what we see as the potential for weather to help prop up cash prices late in heating demand season, especially given the strong possibility for nuclear outages increasing over the coming weeks. With impressive baseload burns along with decent weather-driven demand we would expect cash prices to be decently bid, propping up the front of the strip as well. Monday we saw production concerns pull flat price down all along the strip but J/K still ticked out on GWDD increases, and should weather forecasts hold through the first week or two of April (as they are currently looking like they may do) then there may be a case to play this bull spread closer in towards expiry. Idea 2: Sell K8 $2.9 Calls This trade idea had been adjusted for the recent sell-off, as the last few weeks we had seen selling the $3 calls as an effective way to play the limited upside in natural gas through the coming shoulder season. Those have become incredibly cheap, trading at just around a cent now, and with production where it is currently we struggle to see how the May contract would be able to move for any sustained amount of time above the $2.9 level. This makes the 2.2 cent premium seem that much more attractive here, as this is trading around what the $3 call was trading for just a couple weeks ago. The contract would have to rally over 2 cents in the coming weeks, which is very unlikely. The Longshot (Our Lowest Confidence Call): Sell $2.5 J8 Puts This Longshot trade idea capitalizes on what we see as a relative floor in natural gas prices through the summer courtesy of very limited stockpiles and what continue to be rather impressive power burns. The J8 $2.5 puts are currently trading at 6.5 cents, meaning that prices would have to drop below $2.435 for this trade idea to lose money. It is of course our longshot call due to the inherent risks in shorting a naked put, especially should price collapse as production rises through the summer season. However, we are in a seasonally bullish time of year with limited storage levels and tight burns, meaning despite record production we do see a relatively tight floor for prices at least in the near-term. With the October contract trading above $2.8 and continuing to see strength into the settle, we see it unlikely to decline significantly, leaving premium to capture.
March 2, 218 8 For Personal Use Only Forwarding Or Distribution Not Permitted Seasonal Update Disclaimer and Key Bespoke Weather Services, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Key: CFSv2: American climate model guidance CPC: Climate Prediction Center Analog: Previously occurring weather pattern that has similarities to the current one GEFS: Global Ensemble Forecasting System, American modeling guidance Teleconnections: Atmospheric indices that measure expected orientation both of upper and lower levels of the atmosphere (ie. MJO, NAO, AO, PNA, etc.) Bearish Bullish Current Analysis Last Week s Analysis MJO: Madden/Julian Oscillation, a measure of global convection (storminess) placement GWDDs: Gas Weighted Degree Days (calculated by combining Population Weighted Cooling Degree Days (PWCDDs) with Utility Gas Weighted Heating Degree Days (UGWHDDs) EIA Forecasts: Our forecast for the weekly change in natural gas stockpiles, going out three or four weeks Note: All above information is part of this informational key, and is not updated daily.