Office of Naval Research Update and Status of Arctic Environmental Programs

Office of Naval Research Update and Status of Arctic Environmental Programs October 2017 CDR Blake McBride Deputy, Ocean, Atmosphere and Space Research Division Office of Naval Research marvin.mcbride@navy.mil

ONR Arctic Environmental Research Navy Arctic Gaps: Sensing, Predicting Environment ONR MAJOR THRUSTS: 1. Generation of new observing technologies and methods (platforms, sensors, communications) that will enable persistent observational capabilities in the Arctic 2. Improved basic physical understanding of the Arctic environment and the important coupled processes that drive evolution and predictability in the Arctic region 3. Development of fully-integrated Arctic System Models incorporating the ocean, sea ice, waves and atmosphere for improved prediction at longer lead times, including the use of satellite SAR data for assimilation into integrated models SAR Sea Ice Imagery Notional UUV in situ sampling system Advances in technology will be required to enable an interagency Arctic Observing Network that will support scientific exploration and be able to initialize predictive models of the environment

S&T and Arctic Naval Warfighting How does S&T enable potential Arctic naval operations? Ocean-Atmosphere-Sea Ice Prediction: Process science will create an observations driven, Arctic region model. CNMOC will operate this model to forecast in advance of surface fleet or aviation deployments. Ionospheric Prediction: Process science of the ionosphere will create a model of the lower side of the ionosphere which will assist effective use of HF OTHR for surveillance. New Acoustics: Changing ocean conditions have created a persistent duct which is permitting 400-500 km ranges for acoustic propagation. Creates a potential opportunity for long range detections of naval platforms. Persistent Sensing: Technology/autonomy to allow UUV's and fixed sensors to operate and exfiltrate data over an annual cycle will enhance science. It will also enable Navy to understand how to develop a mobile, persistent surveillance system if necessary.

ICE PPR Arctic Buoy Deployment US-CAN-DEN Ad Hoc Deployment Opportunity in September 2017 Rapidly developed ICE-PPR Principles meeting in Nuuk, Greenland in May 2017. 3 Airborne Seasonal Ice Beacon (AXIB) Buoys deployed for the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP) provided by US and Canada Resilient buoys provide METOC information for 3-5 years in harsh Arctic conditions Deployed over Northern-Central Arctic Ocean from Thule Air Force Base, Greenland via Royal Danish Air Force C-130. 4

ONR S&T Initiatives in the Arctic (2012-2022) UNCLASSIFIED Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) Study (2012-2016) 2014 Field Program Sea State Physics Study (2013-2017) 2015 Field Program Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment (CANAPE) (2015-2017) 2015, 2016, 2017 Field Programs ITP installation Marginal Ice Zone Study Arctic Ocean flux buoy South Korean R/V ARAON Stratified Ocean Dynamics in the Arctic (SODA) (2016-2020) 2017-2019 Field Programs Sea Ice Dynamics Experiment (SIDEx) (2017-2021) 2019 Field Programs CANAPE Arctic Cyclone Study (2018-2022) 2019-2020 Field Programs Arctic Mobile Observing System (AMOS) (2019-2022) 2021-2022 Field Programs UNCLASSIFIED Wave buoy 5 5

ONR Arctic Effort Timeline 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ONR Core Program, Arctic and Global Prediction Marginal Ice Zone Study Sea State Physics Study Canadian Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment (CANAPE) Stratified Ocean Dynamics in the Arctic (SODA) Sea Ice Dynamics Experiment (SIDEx) Arctic Cyclone Study Arctic Mobile Observing System (AMOS)

ONR Arctic Effort Timeline 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ONR Core Program, Arctic and Global Prediction Marginal Ice Zone Study Sea State Physics Study Canadian Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment (CANAPE) Stratified Ocean Dynamics in the Arctic (SODA) Sea Ice Dynamics Experiment (SIDEx) = Field Programs Arctic Cyclone Study Arctic Mobile Observing System (AMOS)

Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) Study (2012-2016) March 2014: Deployment of 5 sensor arrays north of Alaska with assistance from the South Korean Icebreaker R/V Araon 3 nm South Korean Icebreaker R/V ARAON 3 nm Understand the physics that control sea ice break up and melt in and around the ice edge (Marginal Ice Zone - MIZ) Characterize changes in physics associated with decreasing ice/increasing open water Explore feedbacks in the iceocean-atmosphere system that might increase/decrease the rate of sea ice decline

Sea State Physics Study (2013-2017) Objectives: Develop a sea state climatology for the new Arctic Ocean (more open water) Improve wave forecasting in the presence of sea ice Improve theory of wave attenuation/scattering in the sea ice cover Apply wave ice interactions directly in integrated arctic system models Understand heat and mass fluxes in the air sea ice system R/V Sikuliaq, 28 Sept 28 Nov 10, 2015 R/V Sikuliaq

UNCLASSIFIED Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment (CANAPE) (2015 2017) ONR POC: Dr. Robert Headrick, Bob.Headrick@navy.mil USCGC HEALY Acoustic propagation: Improves understanding of the impact of sea ice and oceanographic conditions on acoustic (200-900 Hz) propagation and fluctuations. Ambient noise: Characterizes the depth dependence and temporal variability of the ambient noise field. Physical oceanography: Combines acoustic methods with ice/ocean modeling to improve acoustic predictions. Arctic climatic changes impact the soundscape by changing the dominant ambient noise mechanisms. *** In Cooperation with DRDC Canada *** ** Moorings recovered by USCGC HEALY ** UNCLASSIFIED 10

Stratified Ocean Dynamics in the Arctic (SODA) (2016 2020) 2017-2019 Field Programs SODA Objective: To better understand the response of the upper Arctic Ocean to changes in oceanic inflow and surface forcing over ice-free waters or areas of reduced sea ice cover. The program will include extended autonomous observations as well as intensive ship-based data collection during several cruises.

Objective Sea Ice Dynamics Experiment (SIDEx) (2017-2021) 2019 Field Program Using a distributed array of unattended sensors and platforms, understand the fine scale behavior of different sea ice types under a variety of stress and strain conditions to enable the development of high-resolution numerical sea ice models that can accurately simulate and forecast the formation, deformation, and break-up of Arctic sea ice due to atmospheric, wave, and ocean forcing. SIDEx Observing Array Will combine in situ platforms and satellite remote sensing to track sea ice motion and forcing over several months

ONR POC: Dr. Ron Ferek, ron.ferek@navy.mil Arctic Cyclone Study (2018-2022) 2019-2020 Field Programs Arctic storms have direct impacts on sea ice levels, which significantly impacts forecasting skill. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Need: Skill of weather prediction over the Arctic is worse than anywhere else over the globe. Directly Impacts midlatitude forecasting accuracy. Goal: Overcome the Barrier to Extended Range Prediction over the Arctic. Efficiencies: Field Experiment collaboration opportunities (interagency and international) via ICE- PPR Late Summer/Early Fall Builds on results of the ONR Tropical Cyclone Research Initiative 13

Arctic Cyclone Study Observational Strategy: A/C range rings Japan Okhotsk Bering Barents Norwegian North Greenland Labrador G-V Range ~7000 nm WB-57 Range ~2200 nm NSF/NCAR G-V (cloud radar) to survey synoptic-scale TPVs and their environment WB-57 with ONR HDSS dropsondes to transect polar lows and ice edge effects Two possible observing campaigns: Norwegian Sea: Keflavik, Iceland Ops Center Bering and Chukchi Seas: Fairbanks, AK Ops Center

NCAR G-V Arctic Cyclone Study Observational Strategy: ideally two A/C NASA WB-57 G-V WB-57 WB-57 G-V NSF/NCAR G-V (cloud radar) to survey synoptic-scale TPVs and their environment WB-57 with ONR HDSS dropsondes to transect polar lows and ice edge effects Two possible observing campaigns: Norwegian Sea: Keflavik Iceland Ops Center Bering and Chukchi Seas: Fairbanks AK Ops Center

Arctic Mobile Observing System (AMOS) (2019-2022) 2021-2022 Field Programs Mobile Sensing System for Arctic Observation and Prediction Multiple unmanned platforms with under-ice capabilities UUVs/buoys/floats will collect data around a central buoy node drifting with the sea ice that provides power/comms Bi-directional data transfer and mission adaptability with autonomy improvements Designed to characterize the Arctic environment & prototype CONOPs for persistent robotic observing systems in the Arctic

Coordinated Arctic Acoustic Thermometry Experiment (CAATEX) 2019-2020 Field Programs o Scan of Mean Ocean Temperature for 1 year o CTD, current meters, upward looking sonars oin coordination with the MOSAIC drift o MOSAIC: Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate 17

Considerations for Collaborative o Where are your environmental modelers? o Physical Oceanography o Atmospheric o What data to the use/need? o Data for radar propagation in cold weather? 18

Questions? Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 19