Wildfire Operations Research 2016 Environmental Lapse Rate Project Findings Greg Baxter, Jim Thomasson March 2016
Objective of Winter Work The objective of the work this winter was to determine if data collected by Conair aircraft can be used to build stability profiles of the lower atmosphere in close proximity to ongoing forest fires. 2
Data Requirements Atmospheric Soundings (U of Wyoming) Fire data; big fire days (preferably!) Conair Aircraft flight data Local weather data (airport and FWI) 3
Conair Fleet and Sensors A list of Conair aircraft using sensors that collect the data we require was put together. Data was pulled and analysed: this turned out to be 20 aircraft flying in Alaska, BC, Alberta and the lower 48. To start we looked at a Jasper fire (July 2015) where Conair aircraft T454 dropped a number of loads. 4
July 9, Maligne Road Fire Jasper NP 5
Altitude (m) Decided to focus on Alaska July 9, 2015 Jasper Fire Conair T454 4000 3500 3000 9.5C/1000m 3.68C/1000m 2500 2000 1500 Altitude (m) Tephigram 1000 500 0-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Temperature ( o C) 6
7 Conair Sensors Tanker T160
Data Sets Constructed (all of June 2015) Using Conair RJ85 (T160) Daily tephigrams (Fairbanks and McGrath) Local weather data (Fairbanks and McGrath) Daily Haines Index Daily calculations of R. Lanovilles stability forecasts. Flight data from T160 (Avro RJ85 AT) for all June flights. Acres burned/day 8
Case Studies Three days were chosen for study: A hot, dry day June 16 (super-adiabatic) A big fire day June 30 (super-adiabatic) A cool day June 27 (stable, humid) Fire data, local weather, atmospheric soundings and flight data from these days were collected for analysis. 9
June 16 Alaska 10
June 16 Comparison Conair Tanker T160 11
June 30 Fire in Alaska (250,000 ac growth that day) 12
June 30 Comparison Conair Tanker T160 Text 13
Altitude (m) June 27 Comparison Conair Tanker T160 Lapse Rate 3.7 o C/1000 m 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 Teph T160 500 0 0 5 10 15 20 Temperature ( o C) 14
Conclusions The data collected by the sensor in the RJ85 closely replicates the tephigram data when flying at same time on days with superadiabatic conditions; and cooler days. The other sensor responds too slowly for use. 15
Altitude (m) Comparison June 30 and 27 th two distinct lapse rates. 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Jun-30 Jun-27 1000 500 0-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Temperature ( o C) 16
Local Date 08-Jun-15 16-Jun-15 16-Jun-15 16-Jun-15 16-Jun-15 16-Jun-15 16-Jun-15 17-Jun-15 17-Jun-15 17-Jun-15 17-Jun-15 17-Jun-15 17-Jun-15 18-Jun-15 18-Jun-15 18-Jun-15 18-Jun-15 18-Jun-15 18-Jun-15 18-Jun-15 19-Jun-15 19-Jun-15 19-Jun-15 19-Jun-15 19-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 21-Jun-15 22-Jun-15 22-Jun-15 22-Jun-15 22-Jun-15 23-Jun-15 23-Jun-15 25-Jun-15 25-Jun-15 25-Jun-15 25-Jun-15 25-Jun-15 26-Jun-15 26-Jun-15 26-Jun-15 29-Jun-15 29-Jun-15 29-Jun-15 29-Jun-15 30-Jun-15 Laspe Rate C/1000m Month Data June 2015 Days with calculated lapse rate over 9.8 o C/1000m 14 June 15, 17, 18, 21, 22, 25, 30 (7 days) June 17, 25 and 26 were big fire days T160 June 2015 Lapse Rate Calculation 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 17 Calc Lapse Flight Average
Next Steps: Continue work more case studies. Focus on days that were a surprise. Summary Report. Take initial results to experts and potential users from Canada, US, Australia and NZ. Data collection summer 2016: Investigate 580 sensor and solutions Investigate new sensors in other Conair aircraft; getting data to fire specialists almost live Drop or explore next steps 18
Resources Required Staff Days 50 Travel Costs $6000 Outside Services $2000 In Kind Conair and Fire/Wx data Equipment 19