1 RA II Contributions to GFCS Abdullah Ahmed Al Mandoos President of RA II Executive Director National Center for Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) Ministry of Presidential Affairs United Arab Emirates Kiyotoshi Takahashi Chair of WG-CS in RA II Tokyo Climate Center/JMA
2 Outline 1. Overview of the current situation of RA II in terms of GFCS 2. Subjects to be addressed towards the GFCS implementation in RA II, based on the WMO Impacts survey 2015 (after slide 12)
Characteristics of RA II 3 Geographical and climatological conditions of RA II RA II encompasses very wide regions from the Tropics to the Arctic, from the dry deserts to the humid tropical forest areas, from the deltas of river basins to the high-mountainous regions. And the wider regions of RA II are strongly influenced by the Asian monsoon activity and therefore suffered from the frequent extreme events. RAII contains a large and diverse range of climate conditions and ecosystems. Social conditions 35 members in RA II (Please notice that 33 members were targets in the WMO Impact survey 2015.) RA II Large population more than half of the world, especially in India and China High population density in the urban areas High vulnerability to natural hazards From NASA
Implementation of GFCS in RA II and contribution to GFCS from RA II Type program Country GFCS funded project Other GFCS project Contributing project Contribution to GFCS from RA II Program for implementing GFCS at Regional and National Scales Flood Management (APFM) Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) Drought Early-warning System over IRAN (DESIR) Cooperation on Capacity Building with MET Norway Climate analysis tool, itacs and data viewing tool, ClimatView (TCC) Establishment of a Climate Prediction Analysis System in Eastern Africa, funding support by Korea Meteorological Services (KMA) India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan, Myanmar Bangladesh, India, Lao PDR, Moldova, Nepal, Thailand, Viet nam Moldova, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka Iran Bangladesh, Myanmar, Viet nam All NMHSs Rwanda, Uganda and Djibouti 4
GFCS Projects in RA II -Bhutan- 5 Bhutan is one of eight countries which the GFCS selected as focusing countries with the Partner Advisory Committee (PAC). Project Period PAC Climate Change Adaptation to Protect Human Health Strengthening Hydro-Meteorological Services Addressing the Risk of Climate-Induced Disasters Modernizing Weather, Water, and Climate Services Support for reconstructing historical data and exploring a possible contribution Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) 2010-14 GEF, WHO 2013-15 Finland 2014-18 UNDP World Bank Copernicus GWP Development of Climate Services Toolkit as a part of CSIS in GFCS is expected to be useful for improving national climate services in Bhutan.
Resources of relevant on-going and planned partner projects 6 Green Climate Fund WB 21% Pilot Program for Climate Resilience EBRD 6% IBRD 3% (related to Output 4) KFW 25% UNDP 54% IFC 33% ADB 58% Global Environment Facility WB 12% IFAD 6% UNEP 8% EBRD 4% UNIDO 2% UNDP 31% NABARD 19% Adaptation Fund UN-Habitat UNEP 8% 9% WFP 33% In RA II, UNDP and ADB have major contributions to the GFCS implementation. FAO 13% ADB 24% UNDP 31%
Status of RCCs and GPCLRFs in RA II The Beijing Climate Center (BCC) and the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) were designated as RCC Beijing and RCC Tokyo, respectively, in 2009. The North Eurasian Climate Center (NEACC), Russian Federation, was designated as RCC Moscow in 2013. The India (Pune) Climate Center was designated as RCC Pune in 2017. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan have also expressed their interest in establishing RCCs. 7 RCC (Regional Climate Center) designated RCCs demonstration phase intention to host GPCLRF (Global Producing Center for Long Range Forecast) GPC-Beijing GPC-Moscow GPC-Seoul GPC-Tokyo (2013) Iran Kazakhstan Saudi Arabia Pune (2017) LC-LRFMME (Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction) RA II joint portal site is available. http://www.rccra2.org/ Seoul (2009)
RA II Information Sharing on Climate Services 8 This portal site has been maintained by TCC since 2013 as a pilot project of RA II in order to share information on climate services (product details, frequency of issuance, etc.) as well as RA II joint portal site established at BCC. RA II-16 (2017) recognized the usefulness of this portal site because the access to the site has been increased. RA II- 6 also decided to continue enhancing information sharing by maintaining the portal site after termination of the pilot phase, particularly taking into account its importance for successful implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). This site is one of unique activities in RA II, and would serve for GFCS implementation.
Status of RCOF activity in RA II 9 Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are organized in RA II as shown in the below table, and serve to produce consensus-based, user-relevant climate outlook products. RCOF Start Remarks FOCRAII 2005 Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association II (Asia) coordinated by CMA SASCOF NEACOF EASCOF ASEANCOF 2010 South Asian Climate Outlook Forum coordinated by IMD 2011 North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum coordinated by NEACC 2013 East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum coordinated by China, Japan, Mongolia and Republic of Korea 2013 Association of Southeast Asian Nations Climate Outlook Forum covering both RA II and RA V
Status of Capacity Development in RA II for operational climate services -seminars and trainings- Month/Year Activity Organizer Participants April 2017 Training Workshop (Pre SASCOF-10) IMD and IITM April 2017 Distant training courses focusing on seasonal forecasting issues NEACC March 2017 Experts visit on Indonesia TCC/JMA BMKG staff November 2016 TCC annual training seminar TCC/JMA Countries in the Asia and the Pacific August 2016 Experts visit on Cambodia TCC/JMA Cambodia s Department of Meteorology July 2016 April 2016 International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change (ISCS) International Training Course on Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) CMA CMA Developing countries April 2016 Experts visit on Viet Nam TCC/JMA NCHMF in Vietnam April 2016 Training Workshop on Seasonal Prediction for the operational climate experts in Colombo IMD South Asian countries 10
Status of Capacity Development in RA II for research activities 11 Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA) has conducted international collaboration regrading the global warming projection with dynamical downscaling techniques under the national research project SOUSEI. 18 researchers (India, Philippines, Viet mum, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Panama) have stayed at MRI for collaborative researches during 2012-2016. In the new research project under planning now, MRI examines further collaborations for regional climate projection focusing on climate change projections in vulnerable areas and more active involvement with CORDEX-Asia program. CORDEX-SEA Phase II target areas NEACC conducts joint scientific collaborative project between Roshydromet and NHMS of Belorussia to improve long-range forecasts in Belorussia.
12 Output 6: progress in achieving the tasks of the GCOS implementation plan Access to NMHS climate data center Climate users access to NMHS climate data center Yes/Response (Total)* 11/15 (33) *) Total, Response and Yes in the above table mean total numbers of targeting member in and responsive member to the survey in RA II, and member which replied as Yes to this item, respectively. Quality of climate observations provided by NMHS in meeting user needs (Number of country) Some countries need to improve the data providing services. 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Climate observation by NMHS Verry Low Low Normal High Very High
Output 6: Adequate networks, data management, monitoring and forecast systems 13 Data Rescue Yes/Response (Total) Benefited by WMO data rescue, MEDARE 4/15 (33) Carried out data rescue within past 2-years 7/15 (33) Need WMO data rescue, MEDARE 8/15 (33) Currently, the Indian Ocean Data Rescue Initiative (INDARE) is going on in RA II. Some countries expect for MEDARE in their data rescue activity.
Output 7: Decision support tools and systems 14 NMHS, RCC and RCOF Take into account global data for producing NMHS products Yes/Response (Total) 15/16 (33) Participation to RCOF 14/16 (33) National technical training 15/16 (33) The effectiveness of RCOFs and technical trainings is well recognized in RA II, but continuously we need to enhance them still more.
Output 9: Decision-support products services Output 7: Decision support tools and systems Level of national climate quality and operationally developing and disseminating climate products and services (Number of country) Very low 18 Low Normal High Very high Not aplicable Operationally developing products 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 15 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Fundamental products are evaluated well generally, but information for wider application, e.g. Risk assessment, needs to be enhanced.
Output 9: Decision-support products and services Output 6: Adequate networks, data management, monitoring and forecast systems 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Aspects of User Satisfaction to NMHS products or services Very Low Low Normal High Very High Availability Reliability Range Timeliness Contribution to decision-making Quality of RCC products used at nations Very High High Normal Low Very Low Long range forecasts Regional climate monitoring Regional data Guidance material on region 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Quality of Access Access to RCC and WMO centers 16 Satisfaction level for products or services is high, but data access needs to be improved. Very High High Normal Low Very Low
Output 7: Decision support tools and systems Output 6: Adequate networks, data management, monitoring and forecast systems Timeliness of issued products Very Low Low Normal High Very High 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Monthly Seasonal predictions predictions Climate watch bulletins Long-term projections Quality of issued products Very Low Low Normal High Very High Monthly predictions Seasonal predictions Climate watch bulletins Long-term projections Evaluation for timeliness of issuing and adequacy of the Climate Data Management System looks good, but rather severe for predictions. 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Adequacy of Climate Data Management System Adequacy of CDMS at NMHS Very Low Low Normal High Very High 17
Summary -status- GFCS projects have being implemented steadily in RA II, particularly in southern Asia, like as Bhutan. In RA II, Pune Climate Center (India) is newly designated as RCC at the EC-69. It enhances WMO contribution for GFCS implementation in RA II. RCOFs are also actively organized in RA II. Totally five RCOFs (FOCRAII, SASCOF, EASCOF, ASEANCOF, NEACOF) are held annually once or twice. Training seminars related to climate services have been actively planed as capacity buildings by mainly, BCC, TCC, NEACC and Pune climate centers. Continuous enhancement in exchanges of information and practices on climate services has been recognized as one of important subjects in RA II. Currently two portal sites are operated by BCC and TCC respectively. 18
Summary subjects to be addressed- 19 Subjects to be addressed for further contribution of NMHSs to GFCS implementation based on results of WMO Impact survey (2015) are as follows. Fundamental products are evaluated well generally, but information for wider application, e.g. Risk assessment, adaptation, needs to be enhanced. Satisfaction for products or services is high, but data access needs further improvement. Evaluation for timeliness of issuing products and adequacy of the Climate Data Management System looks good, but there exists room to be improved in Predictions.
20 Thank you for your attention
21 Supplement slides for discussion
Countries involved with Partner s funding in RA II 22 Green Climate Fund Pilot Program for Climate Resilience Global Environment Facility Adaptation Fund Global Environment Facility In RA II, Southeast, South, Southwest and Central Asia are main target areas for major contribution to the GFCS implementation through Partner s funding.
Pune(India) as New RCC in RA II 23 Demonstration as the Indian Regional Climate Center in Pune had been conducted since 2013. In the EC-69, the Indian Regional Climate Center was designated as RCC in RA II.
RA II Joint Portal Site 24 This portal site was established at BCC with cooperation among BCC, TCC and NEACC in 2013 in order to share climate information among all RCCs in RA II. RCC Pune will appear in the site this year. Pune
FOCRA II, SASCOF and NEACOF 25 FOCRAII has the longest history in RA II, coordinated by CMA. It is only for summer outlook. SASCOF was initiated in 2010, and is held twice for summer and winter outlooks. NEACOF is held twice a year for summer and winter, and sometimes with on-line. FOCRAII NEACOF (Source:NEACC) SASCOF
EASCOF and ASEANCOF 26 EASCOF started in 2013 as the successor to the Joint Meeting for Seasonal Prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon initiated in 2000. EASCOF is consisted of Japan, Mongolia, China and Republic of Korea. The main purpose is to share recent understanding of seasonal prediction on the East Asian winter monsoon as well as discuss seasonal outlook of the coming winter. ASEANCOF is held twice a year for summer and winter monsoons. EASCOF (Source:JMA) ASEANCOF (Source:MSS)
New Products provided by RCCs 27 In the end of 2016, NEACC started issuing a new products, Climate Watch Advisory. In April 2016, TCC registered two tools (itacs and ClimatView) developed originally as contributed projects to GFCS. In November 2015, seasonal climate outlook for south Asia was started at RCC Pune to prepare based on coupled forecasting system (CFS) and in January 2016, bias corrected ENSO and IOD forecasts were included in the ENSO & IOD Bulletin. In May 2015, IMD Pune started issuing ENSO and IOD forecast Bulletin. In August 2014, TCC started providing a new product, the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for early warning of extreme weather events. Climate Watch Advisory (NEACC) Extreme Weather Warning map (TCC)
Status of Capacity Development in RA II for research activities example- 28 Climate (JJA) Future(JJA) Change(JJAS) Example of research results by Thailand s researcher and Discussion at MRI These research results were published as a research paper on some professional Journal finally.
MHEWS and RCOF/NCF from WMO Impacts survey (2015) 29 MHEWS Yes/Response (Total) NMHS contributions to MHEWS 16/16 (33) Contribution is Based on formal MoU 14/16 (33) NMHS is a part of National DRR 16/16 (33) Liaison and mechanism Yes/Response (Total) Regional Climate Outlook Forum 09/15 (33) National Climate Forum 10/15 (33) User organized Forum 08/15 (33) Web based dissemination with feedback loop 08/14 (33) Web based dissemination with no feedback loop 12/14 (33) Measure user satisfaction 09/16 (33)