An Alternative to the Global City?

DIETER LÄPPLE HafenCity University Hamburg Institute for Urban and Regional Economics The German Metropolitan System - An Alternative to the Global City? BERLIN AN URBAN EXPERIMENT? Berlin, 10. und 11. November 2006

Decline and crisis stories prevailed in the discourses on cities in Germany For some decades, German cities had to face a cumulation of problems difficult to deal with: outward migration of urban dwellers and job opportunities persistent mass unemployment erosion of their financial basis and after the German unification especially East German cities were faced with dramatic forms of urban shrinkage

"Medium-term" Settlement Structure Development (employed population) Trend of Suburbanization as well as Trend of Disurbanization 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Metropolitan fringes Metropolitan cores 1980 1990 1994 1998 2002 rural and low density areas West Germany Metropolitan regions Source: IAB 2003, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger Development of employment per area type from 1980 to 2002 Changes in relation to the old federal territory 1980 = 100

Unemployment rates in West German Cities 1980-2004 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger Essen Bremen Hamburg Frankfurt a. Main Westdeutschland Stuttgart München

Unemployment rates in German Cities 1980-2004 22% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger Leipzig Ostdeustchland Berlin Dresden Essen Bremen Hamburg Frankfurt a. Main Westdeutschland Stuttgart München

Current population development 1997-2003 Side by side growing and shrinking population: In approx. 3000 municipalities the population rate grew by 3,2 % over the last 6 years, whilst simultaneously falling by 3 % in approx. 1760 municipalities. Growing and shrinking municipalities are often located closely to one another.

Shrinking Cities Central locality deserted Residents moved away, buildings and infrastructure remained. a download from www.shrinkingcities.com

Tendencies toward a Reurbanisation Population Development 30% 25% 20% East German fringes 15% 10% 5% West German fringes 0% -5% West German cores -10% East German cores -15% -20% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger Total migration balance per 1000 inhabitants in German cores und outskirts 1995 2003 Stadtreg. West Stadtreg. Ost BRD

Reurbanization and polarization of the German urban system Changes in the employment figures in German cities 1997 2004 (West Germany without Hannover) München 6,4% Frankfurt 2,6% Köln 1,8% Stuttgart Hamburg Westdeutschland Germany Bremen Essen Dresden Leipzig Berlin Ostdeutschland East Germany -14,2% -9,4% -10,1% -6,5% -4,9% -2,5% 1,7% 0,9% 0,5% Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Cleaning 3 % 190.300 (-42.000) Primary production 1 % 54.600 (-44.000) Adjustment/ control of machinery 4 % 266.600 (-216.500) Industrial manufacturing and processing 4 % 262.000 (-332.400) Transport and storage 8 % 493.000 (-190.700) Repairing Catering 4 % 4 % 225.000 (-119.300) Craft manufacturing and construction Security activities 1 % / 90.900 (+12.900) 239.600 (+36.200) 4 % 258.200 (-310.800) Trading 8 % 502.900 (-61.800) Research, development and design 8 % 500.000 (+100.900) Clerical activities 28 % Education/ professional training 4 % 266.500 (+126.700) 1.709.100 (+99.800) Management executive functions 6 % 385.700 (+46.300) Consulting/ information 1 % / 73.700 (+50.100) Creative activities/ advertising/ publishing 2 % 124.600 (+40.900) Medical care and nursing 8 % 500.100 (+184.500) Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger Employment by occupational clusters in West German metropolitan cores employees 2004 In-/ decrease 1980-2004 green circles: increase in employment; red circles: decrease in employment.

Primary production 1 % 20.300 (-7.700) Adjustment/ control of machinery 4 % 67.300 (-52.400) Industrial manufacturing and processing 3 % 60.500 (-48.400) Repairing 4 % 72.000 (-50.000) Craft manufacturing and construction 5 % 102.400 (-132.800) Clerical activities 25 % 480.000 (-102.900) Management/ executive functions 5 % 99.200 (-29.900) Employment by occupational clusters in East German metropolitan cores employees 2004 In-/ decrease 1993-2004 green circles: increase in employment; red circles: decrease in employment. Transport and storage 7 % 139.000 (-92.700) Security activities 2 % 46.400 (-15.100) Cleaning 3 % 64.700 (-27.800) Catering 5 % 86.700 (+1.500) Trading 9 % 169.900 (-34.800) Research, development and design 6 % 115.800 (-13.500) Education/ professional training 7 % 131.500 (-23.500) Consulting/ information 1 % / 15.200 (+4.000) Creative activities/ advertising/ publishing 2 % / 37.700 (+1.000) Medical care and nursing 10 % 198.700 (+26.500) Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger

Primary production 2 % 64.000 (-28.700) Adjustment/ control of machinery 6 % 266.200 (-84.600) Industrial manufacturing and processing 9 % 373.100 (-208.200) Repairing 5 % 209.900 (-37.600) Craft manufacturing and construction 7 % 279.200 (-155.000) Clerical activities 20 % 860.000 (+220.300) Management/ executive functions 4 % 183.900 (+49.800) Employment by occupational clusters in West German metropolitan fringes employees 2004 In-/ decrease 1980-2004 Transport and storage 10 % 421.900 (+32.500) Cleaning 3 % 125.200 (+3.200) Security activities 1 % / 48.500 (+15.400) Catering 3 % 138.100 (+34.800) Trading 9 % 389.700 (+78.900) Research, development and design 6 % 254.200 (+101.600) Education/ professional training 4 % 181.300 (+97.400) Consulting/ information 1 % / 25.600 (+18.800) Creative activities/ advertising/ publishing 1 % / 30.900 (+13.000) Medical care and nursing 9 % 359.900 (+179.000) Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger green circles: increase in employment; red circles: decrease in employment.

Primary production 4 % 41.100 (-18.800) Adjustment/ control of machinery 5 % 60.000 (-13.100) Industrial manufacturing and processing 7 % 77.300 (-5.700) Repairing 6 % 64.700 (-16.800) Craft manufacturing and construction 11 % 120.700 (-68.300) Clerical activities 17 % 189.800 (+2.300) Management/ executive functions 4 % 43.100 (-14.100) Employment by occupational clusters in East German metropolitan fringes employees 2004 In-/ decrease 1993-2004 green circles: increase in employment; red circles: decrease in employment. Transport and storage 11 % 124.500 (+6.000) Cleaning 2 % 28.200 (-9.100) Security activities 1 % / 16.400 (-2.100) Catering 4 % 43.200 (+3.100) Trading 10 % 108.900 (+14.300) Research, development and design 3 % 38.200 (+1.100) Education/ professional training 6 % 74.100 (-11.000) Consulting/ information 0.3 % / 3.700 (+900) Creative activities/ advertising/ publishing 1 % 6.500 (+1.200) Medical care and nursing 9 % 101.700 (+28.500) Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger

Share of knowledge-based services of total occupation structure rate* 2004 (in percent) German metropolitan regions German metropolitan cores München 11 13 München Stuttgart 9 12 Stuttgart Rhein-Main SR West Hamburg Dresden Ruhrgebiet Bremen Berlin SR SR East Ost Leipzig 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 Rhein-Main Kerne cores West Dresden Hamburg Bremen Kerne cores Ost East Ruhrgebiet Berlin Leipzig Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / S. Kröger 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 *Structural rate: Share of persons employed in the considering cluster. SR West/East = metropolitan regions West- and East Germany

Spatial distribution of metropolitan functions Network of metropolitan regions in place of a Global City In Germany the polycentric urban system forms the historical basis for the development and profiling of metropolitan functions. The metropolitan functions of diverse metropolises are interlinked in a spatial nexus. Quelle: BBR (2005) Raumordnungsbericht 2005. Berichte Bd. 21, Bonn, Seite 185

Network of German Metropolitan Regions Polycentric distribution of metropolitan functions: Decision and control, Rhein-Neckar Bremen - Oldenburg Hannover BS Gö Nürnberg Innovation and competition, Gateway European Metropolitan Regions following a resolution of the conference of the German ministers for spatial planning in a first step: Berlin/ Brandenburg, Hamburg, Munich, Rhine-Main, Rhine-Ruhr and Stuttgart, as well as the potential metropolitan region, the so called Sachsendreieck: Halle/ Leipzig, Dresden and Chemnitz; this list was complemented by Hannover-Braunschweig-Göttingen, Bremen-Oldenburg, Rhine-Neckar & Nuremberg.

Export World champion Germany without a global city? Question: How can we explain the contradiction between > the key position of Germany in the global economy and > the secondary importance of the German cities in the global networks of cites? Is the German network of metropolises only a special deficient case in the hierarchy of the global network of cities or is it likely that the Rheinish Capitalism has not only formed an alternative model of production, but also an alternative and effective model of urbanization?

Hierarchy profile of the urban system 1939 Source: Hans H. Blotevogel 2002

Hierarchy profile of the urban system 1970 Division of Germany in West (left) and East Germany (right) Source: Hans H. Blotevogel 2002

Hierarchy profile of the urban system 1995 after the German reunification Source: Hans H. Blotevogel 2002

German traffic flows business purpose by rail, car and plane Strong spatial-functional interconnection between the Metropolitan Regions The example of business trips Quelle: LSE, BVWP, Verflechtungsmatrizen 1997

Traffic interconnection between the German Metropolitan Regions air traffic Volume of air traffic passengers and intra German air traffic flows 1999 Source: Institut für Länderkunde Leipzig 2000

Data traffic in the broad-band science network WiN (in GBytes/s) Science broad-band network: Frankfurt intersection node for connections to the European science network and point of interchange with commercial German providers. Cologne intersection node for connections to the USA Source: Rauh 2004 Source: Nationalatlas BR Deutschland, Bd.9 Verkehr und Kommunikation, S. 57

Patent applications at the location of the inventor (1992 94) Spatial distribution and concentration of the knowledge economy and their correspondence with the spatial configuration of the metropolitan system. Quelle: Greif, Siegfried: Patentgeographie. In: RuR 2-3/2001, S.144

The national location pattern of the Internet/- E-Commerce Start-ups in Germany Region: Rhine-Ruhr 3.000 start-ups Share: 20 % Region: Hamburg 1.100 start-ups Share: 7 % Region: Rhine-Main 1.000 start-ups Share: 7% Region: Berlin 1.000 start-ups Share: 7 % Region: Stuttgart 600 start-ups Share: 4% Region: München 1.400 start-ups Share: 9 % 60% of the VC-financing are concentrated in the 5 most important locations Quelle: Krafft, 2001 German start ups foreign contractors

Ranking of location quotients among West German metropolitan regions Engineering & Architecture (WZ73: 800) 1980 2001 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% München Stuttgart Rhein-Main Rhein Ruhr Hamburg Berlin 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% München Sachsendreieck Stuttgart Rhein-Main Berlin Rhein Ruhr Hamburg Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / A. Kaiser

Ranking of location quotients among West German metropolitan regions Consulting and accountancy (WZ73: 791) 1980 2001 0,0% 0,4% 0,8% 1,2% 1,6% München Hamburg Rhein Rhein-Main Berlin Ruhr Stuttgart 0,0% 0,4% 0,8% 1,2% 1,6% Rhein-Main Hamburg Rhein Stuttgart München Berlin Ruhr Sachsendreieck Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / A. Kaiser

Ranking of location quotients among West German metropolitan regions Advertising (WZ73: 820) 1980 2001 0,0% 0,4% 0,8% 1,2% 1,6% 2,0% Rhein-Main Hamburg München Rhein Stuttgart Berlin Ruhr 0,0% 0,4% 0,8% 1,2% 1,6% 2,0% Hamburg Rhein-Main München Rhein Stuttgart Berlin Ruhr Sachsendreieck Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / A. Kaiser

Employment in Advanced Producer Services and Manufacturing in Metropolitan Regions Regional Growth Rates 1980-2001 in % 300% advanced producer services 280% 260% 240% 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% Munich Rhein-Main Hamburg Stuttgart Rhein Ruhr R 2 = 0,2844-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% manufacturing Source: IAB 2003/05, own calculations, HCU Urban and regional Economy / A. Kaiser Regional servicemanufactural link - Correlation between the regional growth of advanced producer services and manufacturing

German network of cities and metropolises part of the European spatial network Quelle: BBR (2005) Raumordnungsbericht 2005. Berichte Bd. 21, Bonn, Seite 23

Metropolitan European Growth Areas (MEGA) by functional importance of global, European and transnational significance

The German Metropolitan System: Integrated into global, European, national und regional networks ( multi-tiered networks ) New York London Tokio Los Angeles Paris Hongkong Singapur Mailand Brüssel Amsterdam Kopenhagen Warschau Moskau Wien Schema following to Blotevogel 2002 Global City Metropole