NOAA Spring Flood Outlook for Iowa Safeguard Iowa Partnership March 10, 2015 1 Agenda Orientation Maps Current Conditions Weather Outlook Spring Flood Outlook 2 1
Orientation Maps 3 4 2
5 Current Conditions 6 3
Current Snow Water Equivalent Upper Mississippi River Basin 3/10/2015 3/10/2014 7 Current Snow Water Equivalent Missouri River Basin 3/10/2015 3/10/2014 8 4
Current Snow Water Equivalent Values vs. Normal (Percentiles) Near or below normal across Iowa Near or below normal across mountains in upper Missouri River basin General lack of snow across much of plains of Missouri River basin 9 Current Stream Flow Values vs. Normal (Percentiles) Near or below normal Near or below normal across upper Mississippi River basin Mainly near normal across Missouri River basin above Iowa 10 5
Current Soil Moisture Values vs. Normal (Percentiles) Near or above normal across Iowa Above normal across upper Missouri River basin Corridor of elevated values 11 Current Drought Monitor Abnormally dry conditions along the Iowa-Minnesota border 12 6
7-Day Precipitation Forecast NOAA/NWS Heaviest precipitation from Gulf Coast to Mid- Atlantic 13 14-Day Precipitation Probabilities NAEFS Heaviest precipitation from Gulf Coast to Mid- Atlantic 14 7
Weather Outlook 15 Temperature & Precipitation Outlook March 2015 Precipitation Temperature 16 8
Temperature & Precipitation Outlook March through May 2015 Precipitation Temperature 17 Seasonal Drought Outlook Little change in Iowa Drying across Mississippi River basin above Iowa Drying conditions 18 9
Spring Flood Outlook 19 Spring Flood Outlook As of March 5, 2015 River Basin Mississippi River Spring Flood Risk Below normal Missouri River Below normal Tributaries to Mississippi River Near or below normal Tributaries to Missouri River Near or below normal 20 10
Current Outlook Summary Major Talking Points (#1 of 2) Mainly normal or below normal risk of flooding. Outlook assumes near normal weather conditions through early June. Deviations from near normal actual flood risk may be different than indicated in this outlook. Significant spring flooding in Iowa typically needs a heavy rainfall component in addition to snowmelt. 21 Current Outlook Summary Major Talking Points (#2 of 2) Ice jams may cause localized flooding. Typically requires moderate to heavy rainfall or significant snowmelt. Snowpack is presently not sufficient enough to facilitate significant snowmelt. 22 11
Spring Flood Outlook >25% Chance Level 23 Spring Flood Outlook >50% Chance Level 24 12
Spring Flood Outlook >75% Chance Level 25 Spring Flood Outlook >90% Chance Level 26 13
Thank You For questions & additional information: http://www.weather.gov/desmoines Email: jeff.zogg@noaa.gov Building a Weather-Ready Phone: Nation 515-270-4501 27 28 14
Supplemental Slides 29 30 15
Contact Information Contact information, Hydrologist Jeff.Zogg@noaa.gov Web: http://www.weather.gov/desmoines Phone: 515-270-4501 31 Contact information NWS Quad Cities, IA/IL Donna Dubberke, Warning & Coordination Meteorologist Donna.Dubberke@noaa.gov Web: http://www.weather.gov/quadcities Phone: 563-391-6729 Contact Information 32 16
Contact information NWS La Crosse, WI Mike Welvaert, Hydrologist Mike.Welvaert@noaa.gov Web: http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse Phone: 608-784-8275 Contact Information 33 NWS Omaha, NE Contact Information Contact information Dave Pearson, Hydrologist David.Pearson@noaa.gov Web: http://www.weather.gov/omaha Phone: 402-359-2394 34 17
Contact information NWS Sioux Falls, SD Mike Gillispie, Hydrologist Michael.Gillispie@noaa.gov Web: http://www.weather.gov/siouxfalls Phone: 605-330-4247 Contact Information 35 Missouri River USACE Reservoirs Map 36 18
Missouri River USACE Reservoirs Storage Capacity 37 Live Graphics National Weather Service AHPS Experimental Long-Range Flood Risk graphics http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?stat e=ia 38 19