Arizona Department of Transportation Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Kris Gade, PhD ADOT Environmental Planning Group February 6, 2015 Presentation to PAG Environmental Planning Advisory Council
ADOT Extreme Weather Pilot Study Arizona and FHWA initiatives Pilot study focus on biotic communities Summary of results How ADOT will use the results
Extreme Weather Studies in AZ
2012: ADOT s Preliminary Study
FHWA Framework December 2012 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_ change/adaptation/resources_and_publicat ions/vulnerability_assessment_framework/
19 FHWA Pilots for 2013-2014
Project Approach Study corridor crosses several biomes Different transportation vulnerabilities Stressors Precipitation Temperatures Secondary impacts Wildfires Dust storms Runoff volumes (storms and post-fire) Heat sensitivity of infrastructure (pavement, etc)
Landscape Context Biotic communities can affect extreme weather risks to transportation Four groupings: Desert Grassland Chaparral Forest
Climate Stressors & Impacts Temperature Precipitation Heat/cold sensitivity Flooding/runoff Wildfire Dust storms Rockfall
Extreme Temperature Days above 100 F
Extreme Temperature Average Daily Maximum Past 2040 2080 Average Daily Maximum (F) 1950-1999 2025-2055 2065-2095 Desert 84 88 92 Grassland 76 80 84 Chaparral 74 78 82 Forest 69 73 76
Extreme Precipitation Magnitude of 100-Year (1%) Rainfall
Potential Effects A Note on Symbology All else being equal, projected changes in stressor frequency and/or severity are estimated to have: Negative effects: Likely to exacerbate risks Neutral, not relevant Uncertain effects Positive effects: Likely to reduce risks
Extreme Heat Pavement deformation, thermal expansion Construction schedules and seasons Worker safety Stranded motorists Example Climate Indicators Days exceeding 100 F Average Daily Maximum Temperature
Potential Effects Increase in extremely hot days/maximum temperatures Flagstaff Phoenix Tucson
Extreme Precipitation Flooding/ Inundation» Washouts» Bridge scour» Culvert damage» Debris clogs drainage infrastructure (wildfires) Example Climate Indicators Magnitude of 100-year rainfall (24 hrs) Magnitude of 50-year rainfall (24 hrs) Mudslides
Potential Effects Change in magnitude of 100-year rainfall Flagstaff Incidence/severity of: Washouts/erosion Mudslides Scour Disruptions Phoenix Tucson Lower confidence than for temperature projections
Wildfire Second order effects: floods, mudflows, landslides, bridge scour» Reduced vegetative cover (increased runoff)» Increased debris (greater risk of clogging drainage, channels) Operational disruptions Deterioration, minor damage to guardrail, pavements Example Climate Indicators Average Daily Maximum Temp Average Seasonal Precipitation (May-June-July-Aug)
Potential Effects Wildfire Flagstaff Aggravate flooding/ drainage failures Operational disruptions Phoenix Tucson
How Will ADOT Use the Results? Design standards Justify use of larger design storm Transportation Asset Management Plan Contribute to risk-based approach Strategic Highway Safety Plan Weather-related incidents
Next Steps: Continued Partnering Continue coordination with state, federal, and university partners Increase coordination with local governments and MPOs (for detailed area assessments) Leverage existing tools with minimal development costs (e.g. USGS StreamStats)
ADOT Project Manager Questions? Contacts Thor Anderson (tanderson@azdot.gov, 602.712.4574) ADOT Technical Contacts Kris Gade (kgade@azdot.gov, 602.292.0301) Steve Olmsted (solmsted@azdot.gov, 602.712.6421) Charles Beck (cbeck@azdot.gov, 602.712.8628) Consultant Josh DeFlorio (jdeflorio@camsys.com) FHWA Website http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/
Reserve Slides
Biotic Communities in the Project Corridor
Goals of pilot study
Data Transportation Infrastructure Assets (ADOT) Feature Inventory System Bridge Rating System/NBI Culvert capacity data Roadside vegetation, stabilization, habitat Stressor Data and Models Projections of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Land cover Hydrological modeling Dust storm models? Criticality Economic importance Transportation alternatives
Scenarios: Transportation Parameters Sensitivity Thresholds Focus on extremes (e.g., 100-year rainfall) Exceedance Values (e.g., 3.5 of rainfall) Temporal Frames (e.g., 24 hours) Frequency/Recurrence (e.g., 1% chance) Analysis/horizon year(s) Long Range Planning (e.g., 2040) Asset lifespan (e.g., bridge, 50-75 years)