Prediction of land use and transport changes in dynamic environments modelling the bipolar Vienna Bratislava metropolitan region CUPUM 07 11-13 July 2007 Iguassu Falls, Brasilia
The region Vienna Bratislava: history and status quo Index national = 100 Index EU = 100 Gross regional product in PPP per person 1998 250 200 150 100 50 0 Bratislava district Vienna Vienna Northern hinterland Vienna Southern hinterland Burgenland North Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 2 of 15 Quelle: (Hrdina et al., 2002) S. 4, (MA 18 - Stadtentwicklung und Stadtplanung, 2003)
The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Complexity through spatial detail Complexity through systems involved 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 7 10 9 MARS 1. No model 2. Simple cost based 3. Spreadsheet model 4. Sketch planning model 5. Network assignment model without elastic assignment 6. Network assignment model with elastic assignment 7. Network assignment model in conjunction with external demand / mode-choice model 8. Four stage model 9. Land-use Transportation Interaction (LUTI) model 10. Strategic Transport/ Environment Model Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 3 of 15
The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava CLD of the land use sub model - Land available for development + New Housing + Housing stock H1- H3- H4- + - Attractiveness to develop + Excess demand for - housing + + + - Land Price H2+ Rent + + Population Green areas Accessibility Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 4 of 15 Source: Pfaffenbichler et. al. (2006)
The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava CLD of the transport sub model Source: Pfaffenbichler et. al. (2006) Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 5 of 15
The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Quantitative realisation of the model in Vensim Supply HU J T-1> Stock HU J> d(r) in c(r) in b(r) in a(r) in k supply HU e(r) in Attractiveness moving in Accessibility Access Attr <Recreational green land J> Recreational green land Attr Rent Attr <access to wp> a(r) out Attractiveness moving out b(r) out c(r) out d(r) out <Housing costs> Residents out J Avg time living at the same HU Residents potential in J Potential residents move in HUs made available J Residents J t=0 Residents per HU J t=0 Residents total <Unsatisfied demand residents J T-1> Residents in Growth rate population T Residents Residents out Unsatisfied demand residents J T-1 Residents move in J Residents J Residents move out J Pfaffenbichler, <New Haller, HU Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 <Residents Page out J> 6 of 15 occupiable> Unsatisfied demand residents J <Residents potential in J> <Residents out J> Supply HU J T-1 Supply HU J T <Residents per
The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 7 of 15
The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 8 of 15
The model MARS of the region Vienna - Bratislava Commuting trips 100,000 y = 1.1173x - 35.178 R 2 = 0.9204 y = 1.1861x - 941.51 R 2 = 0.9116 Census 2001 10,000 1,000 y = 0.8566x + 85.538 R 2 = 0.8851 Slow PT Car Linear (PT) Linear (Car) Linear (Slow) 100 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 9 of 15 MARS 2001
Transport infrastructure projects Rail Main lines Regional lines Improvements New construction Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 10 of 15 Source: www.wien-bratislava.at
Transport infrastructure projects Road Highways Inter-regional roads New construction Source: www.wien-bratislava.at Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 11 of 15
First results car-km/resident and day Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 12 of 15
First results Link with animated GIS Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 13 of 15
Conclusions The special history and situation of the region Vienna Bratislava requires dynamic modelling. The model MARS of the region Vienna Bratislava is still under development. Important task like calibrating the land use part have not yet been carried out due to difficulties with data availability. First results for a Do nothing -scenario show a continuing trend of suburbanisation and increase in car use. In the next step we will define different policy instruments and strategies and calculate their effects on land use, transport and the environment. Pfaffenbichler, Haller, Emberger, Pontikakis 16.07.2007 Page 14 of 15
We would like to thank the Wiener Wirtschaftskammer, for funding the underlying project PLUTO (Prediction of Land Use and Transport changes due to Open borders a modelling framework for the Vienna Bratislava metropolitan region). Thank you for your attention! Paul Pfaffenbichler Tel.: +43 (1) 588 01-23114 Fax: +43 (1) 588 01-23199 Email: paul.pfaffenbichler@tuwien.ac.at