Midwest and Great Plains Climate and Drought Update June 20,2013 Laura Edwards Climate Field Specialist Laura.edwards@sdstate.edu 605-626-2870 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University
General Information Providing climate services to the Central Region Collaboration Activity Between: State Climatologists Doug Kluck & John Eise (NOAA) American Association of State Climatologists Midwestern and High Plains Regional Climate Centers National Drought Mitigation Center/USDA Next Climate/Drought Outlook Webinar July 18, 2013 (1 PM CDT) Access to Future Climate Webinars and Information http://www.drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regionaldrought-webinars Operator Assistance for questions at the end 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University
Agenda Recent conditions Interesting extremes: cold, wet Drought update and impacts Outlooks Questions/comments Black Forest Fire, courtesy of Nolan Doesken 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University
May Temperatures Near average for most of region http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2013/5 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University
May Temperature Rankings by Climate Division 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/mapping
Spring 2013 Temperature Ranking by Climate Division 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/mapping
May Precipitation Record wet for Iowa Top 15 wet for ND, SD, MN, WI, IL, MO http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2013/5 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University
May Precipitation Rankings by Climate Division 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/mapping
Spring 2013 Precipitation Ranking by Climate Division 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/mapping
Most Recent 30 days Temperature Departure Precipitation Departure 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University
Streamflow 7-day Average http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?id=ww_current
Current Rivers in Flood Stage http://water.weather.gov/ahps/rfc/rfc.php http://water.usgs.gov
Soil Moisture: Very wet or very dry 14 May 2013 15 June 2013 Anomaly in millimeters http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/
U.S. Drought Monitor 16 May 2013 18 June 2013
Growing Degree Days (Corn) http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/weekly/wwcb/wwcb.pdf NOAA/USDA/JAWF
Jun 19 2012 Jun 26 2012 Jul 3 2012 Jul 10 2012 Jul 17 2012 Jul 24 2012 Jul 31 2012 Aug 7 2012 Aug 14 2012 Aug 21 2012 Aug 28 2012 Sep 4 2012 Sep 11 2012 Sep 18 2012 Sep 25 2012 Oct 2 2012 Oct 9 2012 Oct 16 2012 Oct 23 2012 Oct 30 2012 Nov 6 2012 Nov 13 2012 Nov 20 2012 Nov 27 2012 Dec 4 2012 Dec 11 2012 Dec 18 2012 Dec 25 2012 Jan 1 2013 Jan 8 2013 Jan 15 2013 Jan 22 2013 Jan 29 2013 Feb 5 2013 Feb 12 2013 Feb 19 2013 Feb 26 2013 Mar 5 2013 Mar 12 2013 Mar 19 2013 Mar 26 2013 Apr 2 2013 Apr 9 2013 Apr 16 2013 Apr 23 2013 Apr 30 2013 May 7 2013 May 14 2013 May 21 2013 May 28 2013 Jun 4 2013 Jun 11 2013 Jun 18 2013 Percent United States Corn Areas Located in Drought 100 80 60 40 20 0 43 49 60 21 24 78 36 88 89 88 87 85 86 85 83 84 85 84 81 78 76 60 75 76 76 74 74 72 41 37 53 49 51 48 74 65 62 60 62 62 63 60 59 55 55 69 69 67 67 69 70 69 69 69 68 68 67 66 66 62 62 62 62 62 55 53 53 53 53 51 51 51 51 51 51 52 52 52 51 49 49 48 46 46 46 45 45 43 44 44 44 43 40 39 35 33 34 29 36 36 36 38 40 41 41 40 36 37 34 34 34 34 34 34 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 31 30 30 27 27 27 27 26 14 14 6 8 8 4 2 5 6 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 9 9 24 24 22 23 21 20 21 20 19 17 13 14 12 11 12 12 12 10 9 7 7 7 7 3 2 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Date Moderate or more intense drought (D1+) Severe or more intense drought (D2+) Extreme or more intense drought (D3+) Exceptional drought (D4)
Colorado Fires Black Forest fire in El Paso county, ignited June 11. 95% contained. Record 14,280 acres burned, cost estimated at $9.3 million so far. Over 500 structures destroyed. June 12, 2013. Image Credit: U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Jonathan C. Thibault/Fort Carson Public Affairs Office 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University
Regional Wildland Fire Acres burned for January 1 June 19: Rocky Mtn region (CO, WY, NE, SD, KS) 784 total fires 22,124 acres Eastern region (MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, IN, OH, MI, northeastern states) 4,775 fires 42,694 acres Wildfiretoday.com Nationally, below 10-year average for number of fires and less than ½ of average acres 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University
Looking Ahead 7-day precipitation forecast 8-14 day outlook July temperature and precipitation Late summer (July - September) Seasonal Drought and Seasonal Fire Outlooks
7-day Precipitation Forecast (Experimental) http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml
8-14 Day Outlook 27 June-3 July 2013 Temperature Precipitation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php
July 2013 Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities Temperature Precipitation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
July September 2013 Temperature and Precipitation Probabilities Temperature Precipitation http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/
http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/outlooks.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/season_drought.gif/
instead Current USDO: Initial 3-Month (Top) & Updated 3-Month (Below) New USDO: 3-Month (Top) & 1-Month (Below) June 30, 2011 instead For more details: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/do-changes.shtml
Summary of Current Conditions Very wet May in northern Plains & upper Mississippi valley, record wet spring Hail near Ft. Morgan, CO, 6/17/13 Near average May temperatures overall, slightly warmer in eastern states Soil moisture is adequate to surplus in north and east, dry in NE, KS, CO, WY Winter wheat poor due to drought, corn and soybeans have too much water
Summary of Outlooks ENSO neutral forecast through summer season Drought conditions likely to improve on eastern fringe of current drought area, persisting in west Short-term forecast shows wet for a week or so, then turning drier and warmer. Humidity could rise. July outlook shows equal chances of above average, near average, or below average temperature and rainfall July-September outlook shows higher likelihood of warmer in west and southwest states
Further Information -- Partners Today s and Past Recorded Presentations: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/webinars.htm http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/webinars.php NOAA s National Climatic Data Center: www.ncdc.noaa.gov Monthly climate reports (U.S. & Global): www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ NOAA s Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Climate Portal: www.climate.gov U.S. Drought Portal: www.drought.gov National Drought Mitigation Center: http://drought.unl.edu/ State climatologists http://www.stateclimate.org Regional climate centers http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu http://www.hprcc.unl.edu
Thank You! 2012 Board of Regents, South Dakota State University
Questions? Climate: Laura Edwards: laura.edwards@sdstate.edu 605-626-2870 Doug Kluck: doug.kluck@noaa.gov 816-994-3008 John Eise: john.eise@noaa.gov 816-268-3144 Mike Timlin: mtimlin@illinois.edu 217-333-8506 Natalie Umphlett: numphlett2@unl.edu 402-472-6764 Brian Fuchs: bfuchs2@unl.edu 402-472-6775 Weather: crhroc@noaa.gov