May 6, 2015 US Weekly Weather Flash Week of May 3 9: A warm run- up to Mother s Day in the northern half of the US should bolster seasonal demand. Cooler temps are expected in the West and South, and rain in the Southwest and Plains. Week of May 10 16: Opportunities abound for seasonal demand, with warmth all around! Demand is expected for the sun care, cooling and grilling categories. Week of May 3 9 Temperature vs. Last Year Source: Planalytics Impact on Retail Women s Sandals +11% Sunglasses +5% Pest C ontrol +10% Retail implications: The northern half of the country will experience warmer conditions than both last year and normal throughout the week. A late- week Pacific storm will bring cooler temperatures than both last year and normal to regions west of the Rockies. Conditions will drive purchases of seasonal categories such as women s apparel, gardening and outdoor furniture. This week last year, the US had its warmest start to May since 2009: Overall, it was the driest start to May since 2007. Mother s Day was the warmest it had been since 2007. Spring warmth further north; the West and South stay cool: Those in the Northern and Central Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Mid- Atlantic regions can look forward to highs in the 70s and 80s. The Southwest, Southern Plains and Southeast will all remain cooler than last year, challenging seasonal demand in those areas. Active pattern for the Southwest and Plains: A weather system will bring rainfall to the Southwest early in the week, along with severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall in the Plains. The weekend will bring more opportunities for severe weather and rain in the Plains. Centre Global Retail & Technology Flash Report: Weekly Weather Flash Fung Business Intelligence 1
Week of May 10 16 Impact on Retail Pools +10% Retail implications: The eastern half of the country will remain warm, with above- normal temperatures for the start of the week, supporting demand for the sun care, cooling and grilling categories. For the Plains, severe weather will sustain demand for generators, batteries and cleanup items. Last year, the US saw record heat in the West: The Pacific region had its warmest second week of May since 1997. The US interior, however, was cool overall, with May 16 bringing the latest snowfall on record for the Chicago area. Rain in the East made it the wettest second week of May there since 1980. Still warm, but cooler in the West; wet in the East and Pacific Northwest: The West Coast will trend cooler than it did last year, when it saw record heat, but it should be slightly warmer than normal. The East Coast will face wet weather early next week. The Pacific Northwest can expect rain throughout the week. The same old song for the Plains: Temperatures will be warmer than last year and normal conditions will continue in the Plains, where it will be 5 F to 10 F warmer than last year. Severe weather, along with more rainfall, is also possible. 2
May 6, 2015 Europe Weekly Weather Flash Week of May 3 9: Central and Eastern Europe will see temperatures above normal and above last year s, while Northwestern Europe will see cooler readings than last year by the end of the week due to several systems coming in from the west. Week of May 10 16: Systems moving across Europe from the west will continue to bring rain to North- Central Europe and across the higher elevations in South- Central Europe. Week of May 3 9 Impact on Retail Umbrellas (France) Ice Cream (Netherlands) Retail implications: Several systems will affect Europe. The heaviest rain will be in the UK and Scandinavia. Demand for umbrellas is expected to rise in France, and demand for sandals is expected to drop in Britain. Temperatures throughout the region: Warm temperatures will remain in the heart of Europe, but it will be cooler than last year in Eastern Europe, Spain and the UK. Mild but unsettled weekend: A few systems will work their way through Europe, with the first one expected early, the second by midweek and the last by the end of the week. These are expected to affect Germany, Poland and the Alps, in particular. 3
Week of May 10 16 Impact on Retail Dresses (France) Ice Cream (Italy) Retail implications: Warmer and drier conditions are expected throughout much of Southwest and South- Central Europe, spurring increased demand for spring products, including apparel and consumables. Temperatures throughout the region: Conditions should continue to be warmer than both last year and normal in Central and Southwestern Europe. The UK will remain cooler than last year, while Eastern Europe will continue to be cool. Remaining wet, especially in the North: Systems moving across Europe from the west will continue to bring rain to North- Central Europe and across the higher elevations in South- Central Europe. It will be drier than normal in Southwestern Europe. 4
Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: +852 6119 1779 deborahweinswig@fung1937.com Cam Bolden cambolden@fung1937.com Marie Driscoll, CFA mariedriscoll@fung1937.com John Harmon, CFA johnharmon@fung1937.com Amy Hedrick amyhedrick@fung1937.com Aragorn Ho aragornho@fung1937.com John Mercer johnmercer@fung1937.com Charlie Poon charliepoon@fung1937.com Kiril Popov kirilpopov@fung1937.com Stephanie Reilly stephaniereilly@fung1937.com Lan Rosengard lanrosengard@fung1937.com Jing Wang jingwang@fung1937.com 5